This program is a complete gut job right now.
How long does he need to get us to the 9-3, competing for the division level that we're all accustomed to? When do we break out the pitchforks again if he's not producing?
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Have you seen how fucked this roster is?
Roster is screwed from poor management. I do think we could make some improvements earlier than some think. Strength and conditioning can close some gaps, good tackling could close some. WR that run good routes and get separation could help. I think a win for next year would be to see improvements in those areas. The roster can be shored up through the portal but I think we are at least 3-4 years from competing for Coastal Champs/ACC Championship game if everything falls into place.
The portal gives and takes. Some good players won't want to wait 3-4 years so recruiting HS players that want anything other than early playing time will be tough. Selling that to new recruits will not be easy.
The fair measuring stick for the 22-23 season has to be player development and improvement there. Getting great, ready to play guys from the portal would be great but the real indicator of the needle being moved will be if players on current roster improve.
The portal definitely makes it easier to overturn a roster. With that said, there's a lot of gaps to fill. Fuente depleted the talent, and worse yet, mismanaged the numbers. I don't think 9-3 / ACC contender is a realistic goal until year four. Not saying it can't happen before that, but it's unfair to judge Pry on wins and losses until that season.
I agree with this, but as a side-note, how hilarious and sad is it that 9-3 is all it takes to be considered "ACC contender"...
It's the ACC. 8-4 is easily a contender. Been that way since before clemson got good.
I agree it's not fair to have hold a strict expectation of a contending season over his head until then, but I think we should at least have an idea if that's in the cards before then.
Like, if we're still staring down the barrel of a team with zero potential to be better than 6-6 going into year 3, I don't think he should be above criticism. There have to at least be some tangible signs of life that the team is moving in that direction within a couple years, whether that comes in recruiting, player development, a few big "moral victories," or whatever. I think it would be pretty silly to watch the team go absolutely nowhere for 3 years and just keep telling ourselves "we have to give him until year 4 to contend." But a lot of people just talked themselves into that with Fuente from 2018-2021...
I plan to judge the new staff early and often on their recruiting success- to include transfers and portaling.
Once games are played I plan to add physicality, athleticism, and effort to the criteria. Are they signing their first priority recruits and are they P5 starters who can make plays and win matchups. And whether the new staff is putting these guys in position to succeed will be critical I would think. If the roster is still getting filled with option C and D signees it will be an indicator of bad things to come.
Pry says identity is important, we should hold him to that.
Happy new year!
I think it's fair enough to judge on recruiting success ahead of on-the-field success. I plan to do the same.
I would only caveat that on-field success influences those recruiting W's too.
I'll expect some semblance of a solid season in Year 3. We might be able to work out something via Portal Gods
3rd year at the absolute earliest. Most likely the 4th year. We are looking at a 4 year rebuild. We have to be patient because a simply getting to 6-6 will be a win next year.
Which Year 3?
(I'll see myself out)
We will be bad in 2022.
Would like to see some positive progress by 2023.
I am not necessarily expecting a Bowl appearance until 2024.
This Roster is so, so, so bad...its beyond anything I even expected.
I don't give a damn about the record next year. Just show fight. If we don't make it easy on anyone it's a W next year
Def. not here for this shit
Horrible next year, marginally better the year after that, we'll start to see some tangible improvement in year 3. If the coaches are elite recruiters we could be contending for the ACC by year 4
Cupboard is pretty much bare. Going to take years to be division contenders again. Maybe 24-25 if Coastal stays pitiful. Still got Duke and loluva for victories next year.
I think he has 2 years to make it look like a football team, but the natives will be pretty restless if we aren't seeing some tangible results by years 3 & 4.
That's year 1
Year 1 is 2022. I'd like to think we learned SOMETHING.
We are an engineering school. You'd think we can math better.
Also, we want to be a football school.
By around 2007 my students were calling us a Football School. My admins and fellow faculty would have severely cringed at that 🤣
The portal can make this process quicker than it used to be if you can get solid players and manage the roster accordingly, but he's got to rebuild this roster for the most part. There are some good young players left on this roster who can be a part of the solution, but we will have growing pains. Unless we get a game-changer at QB via the portal, I think we need to be prepared for a true rebuilding, year zero type season in 2022.
I had hoped I'd get some sense of how many good young players we have, but we were so over-matched physically that I couldn't tell. How many good young players do we really have? That's an honest question, I am not being cynical.
A couple at wide receiver. That's kinda it
Peter Moore is ELITE.
And Moore Peter gets you deeper... on the depth chart
That's a fair question, and it's hard to tell. When the guys around you aren't doing their jobs, it can make you look bad, when the guys around you are all doing their jobs, it might cover up your mistakes more and make them harder to see.
I think we have some talent, but we need to rebuild the lines of scrimmage, and luckily we are bringing in a lot of new bodies on both sides of the line in this recruiting class. If we have a lot of hits in those two groups it will make everything else behind them easier to fix.
I am worried about the secondary, and particularly depth there, but I do think Dorian Strong, Keonta Jenkins, Jalen Stroman, and DJ Harvey can play at the P5 level.
There are lots of guys I have high hopes for but need to see more of like Cole Nelson, Stretch Carroll, Jaden Keller, among others.
If we can hold onto them, maybe Jaylen Jones and Lofton can play at this level and be major contributors. They have both shown a few flashes.
Edit: I didn't want to list names because then it looks like anyone else I leave out I don't think can play. Ultimately, there are guys I really believe in on this roster I didn't list, and there are guys who I'm not thinking of who may end up better than anyone I mentioned.
Also, I'm very interested to see what the new S&C can do to this roster. That can also make a big difference.
Thanks. I think that's fair with the names you listed because they all played a lot of minutes today. We may still have some guys that aren't ready but could be with some S&C and they didn't play today.
Never fear, we WILL get back to our typical mediocrity by year 3 I'm sure.
I think by year 2 we should be .500, above .500 (regular season) by year 3, and 8+ regular season wins by year 4.
That said, this isn't a 'fire coach pry if he can't do this' - rather it's just my expectations for the next 4 years. I reserve the right to change expectations (either way) at any point.
Longer than 50% of the fan base will be willing to give him without calling for the next guy.
Considering we have a walk on OL playing DT on this list drive is 3 years enough?
Geez I'm suprised Maryland only scored 54
Well, we play in a conference where Pitt and Wake just played for the conference title. Where ACC teams have lost 13 straight bowl games.
We look bad today, but we had all of our best players opt out of this game, so we're not nearly THIS bad as we look tonight against MD. We've got a top 30 recruiting class coming in, we can use the portal to our advantage. and our schedule is pretty soft next year.
I'm thinking 6-6 next year (wins against Wofford, Liberty, ODU, Duke, UVA, one or two more?). After that, I think we should be competing for Coastal championships pretty quick.
I mean, I think the program is only marginally worse now than it was when Fuente took over, and FuCorn won 19 games in their first two years with a Coastal championship.
Whose to say that CBP and staff can't come in here and do the same, or at least something similar?
I dont think it is as dire as some, but look at the roster Fuente got, top 2 WRs and top TE in VT history. That defense had a ton of NFL talent. I can't point to anyone on our defense that is going to the NFL, but the Edmunds were well on their way there. Settle was going to make it assuming he could play more downs. Adonis was a stud freshman, Teller was solid.
We might have some guys that turn out well but we just aren't set at the skill positions like in 2016.
I'll also note about Teller, that for some reason Fuente, IIRC, took 3 or 4 games before he allowed Teller to start, and he was often pulled mid game.
Fuentes high point was with some of the best recruits from Beamer's last 5 years.
And Marshawn Williams, if his knee could have stayed healthy, had the possibility of being one of the best backs in program history. He definitely had a huge impact in 2016 before going down after a touchdown run against Notre Dame.
Fuente also chased away McMillian to Colorado where we watched weekly highlights of his monster senior season.
That 2016 season was really good, but looking back, there was no way we kept things rolling into 2017. Evans has gone on record saying the offense wasn't at all what he thought it would be and was tired of how much Fu and Corn ran him. A lot of our bigger plays that season were Evans making something out of nothing or making a throw he wasn't supposed to. With Evans having enough after one year, there was no way Ford and Hodges came back even though it may have benefited them.
I still don't understand why McMillian always seemed to be in the doghouse with Fu. He was easily our best back. Shai and Williams could have been the next great VT RB duo but unfortunately injuries derailed their careers. Just weren't the same coming back, even though Juice did have some strong games in 2016 before his knee gave out for good.
The 2017 team was doing fine up until injuries to key players on both sides of the ball derailed them. The offense was never great but was functional when Nijman was healthy. Once he went out it got ugly, and got worse when they lost Cam.
I seem to remember (and I'm old, so my memory might be playing tricks on me) Teller was a hothead and would occasionally do dumb things/lose his mind and get benched. Somehow Hoffman didn't get the same treatment when he would get penalized for being dumb, but I digress.
Next year is gonna be baaaaaddd without a influx of transfers. I'm willing to wait til the end of year 4, but also wouldn't be surprised by a Mel Tucker style turnaround in year 2 with good transfers.
We should remember that UMD plays in the 2nd best division in cfb while we play in one of the worst. These 6-6 records are not equal.
Maybe, but we were missing most of our best players in this game, including our quarterback and best receiver, and that does make a difference.
And our best CB.
Yeah and they aren't coming back, so this is why we have to work with unfortunately.
Hopefully we now have coaches who can develop players.
The measuring stick is not raw wins/losses, it's progress in execution, wins, and recruiting. As long as we're continuing to move in the right direction he has my support
Year 1A should be the year I expect us to win the ACC championship.
It's really hard to tell just how bad the roster is with Corny running the O. The O is so unimaginative and has so many 3 and outs that you can't expect any D to stay fresh. It really depends on the OC and QB.... I expect decent outcomes by year 2..... Meaning 6-7 wins
Well fuente needed -7 years to go from 10 wins to 6 so by that math maybe 69 years to get back to .500 or above seasons?
If by turn it around you mean getting better every season instead of worse, we should bottom out next year, and hopefully get back the garbage we saw this year the year after.
I'm choosing (o&m colored glasses or not) to believe that the roster is better than it appears on the offensive side because the previous regime could not identify/develop talent and then design an offense with the intent to utilize strengths and mask weaknesses. Im much more concerned about the defense and generally lacking depth.
With the transfer portal, I hope we can pull additional pieces. I think 6 wins is manageable. I've said this in other threads, but I am looking more for the little things like improved tackling and coming out amped up at the start of games to call it an upward trend next year over strictly wins and losses.
I think you have to build on even small success though so if they can get to 6 wins next year and 7/8 the year after than great. The equalizer is going to be can they snag a qb and develop him whether that be bullock or some qb to be named later. You can mask a lot with a dynamic qb.
Obviously patience isn't finite so I think if improvements aren't clear by year 3 then eyebrows can be raised, year 4 you start grumbling and year 5 is sack up and win 9 games.
My vtcc Hokie will be a senior next year. Im just hoping for a better finale for him and his buds than what they had to endure in Lane this season.
Same thing for my son. He and his 3 roommates all endured the bowl game too.
I actually think it really depends how long it takes to fix the trenches. Both new S&C, recruits, and assistants it's impossible to predict. I actually liked some flashes of Tahj today. I wish he started the entire game. If they fix up front and Tahj is actually good, 6-6 next year isn't unrealistic. For actually competing for anything meaning, that's going to take a while. Year 3 is generally when you start get some gears turning. So, 2024 at the earliest.
4 years minimum. I think it's going to be a lot like the Buzz rebuild after JJ. Just hope he sticks around longer.
First year will be tough. He can blame the roster. Second year could be tough. Then we see if he has any issues with staff. Third year he's made moves to rectify either roster or staff. Fourth year, you see if it worked.
I believe that 6 wins next year is very manageable in the gauntlet that is the ACC coastal. As as been said before in the thread. I think the little things will be more of an indicator then the raw win loss total.
Little things such as:
Getting your best players the ball on offense.
A physical identity on all three phases and pursuit to the ball on defense and special teams.
A team that LOOKS like they know they can compete with any team on the field.
Playing to win the game.
In today's Era of college football, if we are not in contention to win the coastal in the last few games of years 3-4 and in the acc championship by year 5 I do not know if the staff will ever get there.
I think these are very fair things to want/expect from your college football team. Losses are a lot easier to stomach when you know the guys played physical and together on both sides of the ball. When they show the kind of effort (pursuit, blocking, tackling, etc) that you expect from VT football it's a lot easier to accept when you lose to a team that maybe just had more talent or made a few more plays.
4 years minimum. That's with winning the portal game. This roster is so broken. It had a clear hole when Fu took over and somehow got worse.
There's not a lot of talent on this roster currently. Realistically, you should see better teams by year 4, with the previous years' teams getting progressively better with each season. Depending on how things go with the Portal, it could be earlier by a year or two. Looking at this roster, from today on up thru the next recruiting cycle the pitch to portal kids and HS recruits should definitely include "You can get immediate playing time if you come here. You won't have to wait", especially for Portal kids. There's not a single position group imo where you can say "Yep. We're good here". If you really land some guys in the Portal, its not unreasonable to see a quick turnaround (year 2 or 3) but don't bet your life saving on it.
We're only going to be able to sign 7 max from the portal. Even if they all end up starters, we are going to be short on talent somewhere.
I'm not even sharpening my pitchfork until year 4 at the earliest.
Honestly, at this point as long as we go and leave it all on the field, feel like we put ourselves in a position to win, and play tough and physical football, I don't care if VT isn't a playoff contender or top 15 team regularly. I really don't think we will ever seriously compete for a natty again in this current landscape. I love what Pry brings to the table, and as long as we win more than we lose and don't look utterly incompetent on the field, I'll be a fan of VT football. And hopefully some years we can go on a run and win 10+ games or make a NY6 bowl. At least we got someone with some ties to the program/area, and understanding of VT, and a refreshing personality. It was hard to support Fu at all.
We currently have a G-5 roster, and one that will be particularly young next season. If it wasn't clear to everyone watching this season that we are smaller, weaker and slower than every team we played then people weren't paying attention. Fuente and Co. absolutely decimated this roster. And that isn't a knock on the young men who chose to play here, it's simply the reality of the situation.
This is a massive rebuild. I would like to see us competing for a Coastal Title in the next 3-4 years, a reasonable ask in the weakest P-5 division. I don't expect us to be competing for an ACC Title for 5+ years.
Yes, this was a sobering picture of just exactly where we stand after 6 years of FuenteBall.
Too small, too slow, and not prepared to play with a .500 team from the B1G that has a HC who has been consistently considered a lightweight.
We are a total rebuild at this point and while the Transfer Portal presents an opportunity to rebuild more quickly, there are not a lot of players lining up to play for a team that looks like a 4-5 win team next year.
silver lining of having a deficient S&C program is that these weak players will hopefully get stronger under a decent S&C program
First Question for Brent Pry on Hokie football: Have you tried unplugging it and plugging it back in?
The thing about Arsenal is they always try to walk it in!
Did you see that ludicrous display last night?
Lol, have we tried restoring from a previous backup? Time to roll this sucker back.
I think it all has to do with progress. If we can consistently see progress and see the fight then I'm good with it. When there is stagnation and no real effort to change is when you start getting behind a la Fu.
I agree with this. As long as there is commitment to a particular standard and culture of winning and the coach is committed to adapting and making changes as needed to uphold that mark, I'm onboard. Frank finally did make some changes but it was far too little too late. Fu was so stubborn and he was going to do things his way or the highway. Don't want that type of coach leading the program. I think Pry has a deep understanding and appreciation for the VT program and the years of experience, especially at a big program like PSU, to make changes if things start to stagnate.
Are we 800% sure we are willing to give Pry the time to rebuild?
Look I'm not saying he needs to win the ACC by the end of 2023, but...we better be seeing some positive signs by then.
Fuente has left him absolute garbage, to be sure, but with the Transfer Portal and what we expect to be actual competent coaches I expect to at the very least be on a clear upward trajectory within 2 years. Full vision doesn't need to be realized by then but we can't be sitting here getting 50-burgered by .500 caliber programs anymore either, which has become the norm under Fuente.
I don't think it's unreasonable to expect another .500ish bowl-caliber team next year that at the very least is more competitive and fundamentally sound than the 2020 or 2021 teams, an 8-ish win team in 2023, and onward and upwards after that.
Bowl eligible every year. 10 wins in year 3
I like the optimism.
4 yrs unless he does a michigan state job in the portal, but that doesn't build a program or culture. it's not long term, not real.
I don't think Pry's success can have numbers tied to it in the first 3 years. I think by the end of year 3 we'll know whether or not we're headed in the right direction but I imagine it's going to take at least a couple years longer before we're playing at the level we expect.
Let's not forget that half of the coastal just went out and got new coaches too. I expect the division to improve as a whole. The competition is going to be getting better as well and that is likely to slow VTs rise to the top of the league
As I've said before, I'm not looking for a specific number of wins. I'm looking for measurable progress- both over the course of the season as well as from year to year.
Fuente started great and then steadily got worse. Pry could win 0 games next year but if the team looks better in November than September I won't lose my shit over it.
There is no doubt that this is going to be a massive rebuild. I just hope fans can be patient. It's going to take years to recover from this mess
If Pry wins 0 games next year, this place will be a mess.
Yes, probably so. But I'm not going to lose sleep over it. Ftr, I think we win more than 0 games. My point is that I'm not going to put a number on season 1 win totals as a measuring stick for these coaches. We, of all people, should know that one year's results don't offer any kind of reliable information about the quality of the coaches.
Agreed.
He gets a pass next year pretty much no matter what but I see 4 wins as a realistic floor.
Luckily our schedule isn't too difficult next year. at UNC, at Pitt, at NC State and Miami will be tough WVU, at Liberty, BC Might be toss ups. But we should get to 6.
Roster wise the defense is more salvageable than the offense. Defensive end is really the only position we need to look for in the portal. And obviously need a huge improvement in play from the secondary. Not really worried about linebackers because Pry knows what he's doing there.
The offense is going to need a full rebuild. The line returns 2 guys in the two deep, we have no QB, and the best returning receivers are true freshmen. Portal needs: 2-3 OL, 2-3 WR's, 1 QB, and maybe an RB. All need to be experienced and ready to start day 1.
We don't need RB, we need Thomas to keep improving and Galt to work magic on King to get him ready for more touches.
Thomas and King are not good enough to be the top two backs for us next year sorry bud
Not good enough for a full rebuild? I don't understand
He's saying we don't have to look for an RB in the portal because we have a true sophomore and a guy who's struggled with being at playing weight his entire career. I'm saying those two are not near good enough to justify not looking to the portal
I think with so many RBs in the room and limited transfers in, focus on other position groups. QB a must, WR, and both lines. Maybe a new S&C staff has a more successful time with King.
Yeah there are far higher priorities on this roster with 8 transfers allowed there is 0 reason you're looking at RBs in the portal right now.
I mean I laid it out in the initial post, idk what there's any confusion about.
After 1 QB, 2 OL, 2 WR's, 1 DE; running back is definitely the next in line. And there are a lit more good/potentially contributing RB's in the portal than those other positions
What about defense?
Defensive End is the main position we need. I don't see us getting more than 1. Maybe we pick up a DB or two, but we have so many young guys, I don't really see us taking more than 1. Linebacker we seem pretty set too, maybe if there's a guy Pry really likes we take him too.
That's 3-4 guys max for the defensive side of the ball imo.
Also just because the roster is in "rebuild" doesn't mean we shouldn't try to improve the roster
Right, but we gotta improve the roster in a way that makes sense. Derrick Henry ain't gonna get 100 yards behind our oline next year. We already have a bunch of scholarship RBs. Might as well use up roster spots on positions of need and just work with the guys we have. Wisconsin's oline would make me look good at RB. We don't need to go to the portal for a RB. It's not because we have P5 RBs. It's because there are more important roles to fill in the near term
We're gonna drop like three of those, maybe more in the spring. The numbers will work out, there will be a lot more than 8 spots
Losing RBs doesn't change the limit on the number of transfers we're allowed
Idk Chez Mellusi didn't look that great behind the Sconnie oline this year
Despite my earlier comment, I think we should be prepared for the fact that Georgia Tech is now further along in their rebuild than we are.
LOLUVA is regularly worse than us and has a new coaching staff too. Duke is bad. UNC is losing their QB and we already beat them this year. Pitt lost their QB and a good OC. Miami is just as bak as they've been forever but they still beat us this year.
We can contend for the Coastal in year 1 of the Pry era but I'm betting it'll be a Pitt/GT race.
Pitt gets a nice transfer QB, OC, well that's a loss. they are physical, typical veteran team, that has meaning tho.
UNC collecting talent, they'll beat VT but they are still soft.
da U will be marginally better, older, very good young qb and a better coaching than last couple of years.
uva, Duke, GT and VT all gonna be trash, with GT a tad better than rest, they trash too. such a trash conference.
GT isn't going to be in the race.
GT was, until Jamyr Gibbs, arguably the best RB in the ACC, transferred because GT wasn't winning enough. They've also lost two good WRs to the transfer portal.
As someone who was really concerned about GT building momentum, I'm resting a little easier these days.
Taking a look at our 2022 schedule:
OOC: ODU, Wofford, Liberty, WVU
3-1 here seems reasonable.
Atlantic Crossovers: BC and NC State
0-2 is probably the right expectation, 1-1 is possible depending on what BC brings back.
Then you have the usual Coastal suspects: Duke, UNC, UVA, Pitt, Miami, GT
Maybe 2-4 here? 3-3? I think this is the hardest group to make any kind of guesses on at the moment. We just don't know what kind of players we will be rolling out at key positions. Do we get a good transfer QB? That could raise these numbers. Do we get a play-maker on the DL, a lynchpin piece on the OL, etc.
There's too many key unknowns at this point to make a quality record prediction.
Idk that OOC looks like 2-2 or 1-3 is more likely than 3-1
Cross division is 0-2
I think 2-4 maybe 3-3 is accurate.
4 to 5 wins is what I'm expecting depending on transfers but even then it might still be 5.
How long does it take to find a good QB and possibly more than 1 sequenced out? That's my answer.
VT may have the worst QB room in power 5 and it's not even close. No arm talent, not fast and really nothing to work with at this time. We have had 1 elite QB in 10 years.
If I am Brent Pry you need at least 2 transfer QB's spaced out in eligibility and maybe 3 this year which is an impossible ask.
If you are objective about QB it's 2-3 years minimum to see signs of life.
I really wish we had just let Bullock play the bowl game, or at least the whole 2nd half. He had a few nice throws, but we still didn't see much to go on.
Yeah it was already a blowout by that point. Might as well 🤷♂️
Other posters have already given good answers in terms of W/L goals. Personally in the immediate future (1-2 years) I'm not as focused on the win total itself but signs of what the future holds. Things like:
1. National/ACC recruiting rankings
1b. Closing on top recruits within a 4 hour drive of Blacksburg. Pry has explicitly said he wants to convince kids to stay home and I think it's fair to judge him on his own stated goal.
2. The intangible sense that the team is being put in position to win. You know, things like actually attempting to be the last to score at the end of the half. Players seeming to actually improve over multiple years in the program.
Really appreciate point no. 2. Two losses this season could have been wins, especially WVU. They weren't losses because of our players IMO, but bad coaching decisions.
My understanding is that there are a LOT of QBs in the portal this time. A huge number of kids overall, and there on only so many good starting positions out there. Not every kid that opted for "rico's time is nnnoooowww!" Is going to get the upgrade they want. Hopefully Pry can capitalize on that.
I'm gonna be optimistic. I know there are mixed feelings about Shane Beamer here, but what he did in a year was impressive. Pry has the right attitude, understands the Hokie culture. We need that lunch pail mentality!
I know other programs around us are also doing the hard work we're about to undertake, but they have the disadvantage of not being HOKIES.
LET'S GO
3 losses, ND, WVU, Cuse
You're right. How many kids would have dressed for a bowl game after 8, 9 wins do you suppose?
I think it almost entirely hinges (at least in the short term) on how long it takes him to bring in a solid quarterback. Great quarterback play can cover up for a lot of stuff. Obviously many other things have to be corrected and changed entirely but that's the #1 thing we haven't had in quite some time
While I agree with this, we need improvement on the O-line before even a good QB can be effective. There's only so may Vicks and Tyrods out there that can keep plays alive as they could if the D got past the line.
Honestly, after watching this "performance," I think the D may be an even bigger rebuild than the Offense.
The Defensive Line doesn't have a 1st-string P5 level player on it. The LB have the same issues with fits and getting off blocks and I'm not sure a single one fits Prys system well.
The DBs are thin and haven't performed well overall. We have Strong who had a big stepback this year and Harvey who is unproven but appears talented..then...?????? at CB. At safety, we have a mostly question marks as well.
Long story short, I don't think we can nealry fix all the holes we have through the Transfer Portal without leaving huge gaps on the other side of the ball.
I think 2022 is going to be pretty ugly even with the best of luck in the Portal. Fuente screwed this Team up royally.
Based on the new transfer rules described here: Article from The Athletic, we currently can only sign 1 transfer (or 2 depending on when the semester ended), and even if we have some enter the portal before Spring practice, we will be limited to 7. And it has to be before Spring Practice if a different article I read is correct.
So we're not transforming this roster next year. And probably not next year either because the 7 player transfer waiver is for one year only.
There will be more transfers after winter workouts and there will be more transfers after spring practice. It won't be hard to get those 7 transfer players.
Under the rule proposed in the fall, any transfers that happen after the next semester starts will not be subject to the waiver, meaning we will only have 3 available, assuming that we get 1 more transfer, and we sign both players that we have committed right now on the final National Letter of Intent signing day. That's because you can only have 25 new "counters" (signees) - portal or freshmen - each year. We signed 20, we have 2 commits, that leaves 3.
The waiver applies to a short window - after the fall semester ends or after December 15, whichever is earlier (they are both the same for VT - December 15), and before the next semester starts (unclear if that includes Winter semester, but it's either before January 3 or January 18).
We have 1 player (Burmeister) that entered the portal in that time period so far. So we can sign 26 new players max unless someone else transfers before the next semester starts. Not after spring ball, not after winter workouts. And remember we have already signed 20 of those, and expect to sign 2 more.
So unless we get more transfers now, we will be able to take 4 at most.
Adjust your expectations accordingly.
I'm not seeing anything about a deadline (such as "start of spring semester") for transfers to count towards the 7, so I'm assuming that anyone who transfers between now and the end of next summer session will count. The NCAA specifically lists a start date without an end date: https://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/general-di-counci...
I wasn't able to find info on the end date either, but the proposed rule did have that limit apparently. Doesn't mean it passed. They change parts of rules all the time from what is proposed.
Just something to be aware of if we don't end up signing several transfers before January 18.
Update: the transfer waiver only applies to this recruiting year, and that ends on April 1. So that may be why there is no end date specified.
With no permanent change in the rules before then, I assume we would be able to sign whoever we wanted out of the portal, but they would count against our 2023 class limit of 25.
Thanks for following up, I'd assume the end date for the 7 extra spots is April 1 then. That's probably plenty of time for most of the players who want to transfer to make up their minds.
I could be getting this completely wrong but this says 7 players in addition to the normal 25 recruits/transfers, not a hard cap on 7 "transfers," correct?
We signed 21 players and have 2 commits unsigned, even if those 2 both sign eventually wouldn't that put us at 23 thus allowing 9 transfers to meet the 25+7 number? Or in theory 11 transfers if the 2 unsigned commits wind up going elsewhere? Assuming enough guys on the current roster transfer out to allow that but I don't think that's completely unreasonable to expect in our situation.
Looking at our roster going into next year we need at least 1 starter at QB, WR, OL, and DL out of the portal to avoid being complete garbage next year. Probably 2 starting OL and DL out of the portal if possible. Likely need an additional backup QB and a CB who can get on the field if not necessarily start as well. We don't necessarily need to take an "entire roster" out of the portal but getting even just a couple more than 7 would be huge.
No, it is 7 transfers specifically. If we signed a full class of 25, we could sign 7 transfers and have 32 new counters, but signing fewer freshmen does not get you more transfers - that's the exact situation that the NCAA was trying to prevent. [Edit: to clarify, the NCAA was concerned that teams would mine the portal to the exclusion of signing HS players, and that the one free transfer rule had made it more desirable to take proven transfers instead of unproven HS talent.]
Also as part of the rule as proposed, there was to be a limit of 100 new counters over 4 years, so if we signed 32 each year for the first 3 years, we would only have 4 new counters available in year 4.
I'm not sure which parts of the rule as proposed were actually adopted, except for the 7 transfer waiver. They may have not adopted the window portion (between December 15 and start of the next semester), or they may have not adopted the 100 new counter limit. I wasn't able to find authoritative info on those. I suspect the 100 counter limit did not pass because the 7 transfer waiver is only for 1 year, with the expectation that a permanent rule would pass this offseason.
Where do you see a limit of 7 transfers? Neither the Athletic article nor the NCAA's own announcement says anything like that, only that it's a waiver to increase the limit on new counters (transfers, recruits, and new scholarships for walk-ons combined).
It's the first sentence.
"The NCAA's Division I Council voted Tuesday to approve a one-year waiver that will allow college football programs to increase the 2022 signing class limit by up to seven additional spots."
Yes but seven... what? The fact that they don't specify would seem to imply that it's the overall limit that's increased, with no limit on the various types of initial counters.
It's 7 replacement players. This blurb from the NCAA makes it clear: Transfer waiver.
A little good news though. I had thought that the Robinson, Bailey, and Kadum slots would just be lost to us this year, but after thinking about it, that's probably why we're only signing 22 this year. We probably are taking 3 transfers to replace them - and they don't need the waivers because we are under the 25 initial counter slots already. I could be wrong here also, and some of this is unknown, like how close we are to 85, and how many we have signed in the last 3 years, because there's apparently a 4 year rolling limit also.
The 7 slot waiver is for additional initial counters for transfers, so we should have 6 more transfers available after we replace Burmeister, if they leave before April 1 (assuming that my interpretation of the recruiting year rule is correct, which it may not be).
Lot of unknowns, but I am ramping down my expectations some because we may have some limits on what we can do.
(a) I see nothing in that blurb saying anything about limitations on the type of "replacement players". As far as I can tell, they can be either high school signees or transfers.
(b) Even if it is limited to transfers, I also see nothing that says that slots within the usual cap of 25 cannot also be used for transfers, so no, there is no hard limit on 7 incoming transfers.
Also pretty sure that "4-year rolling limit" was a proposal that never got passed, but I could have missed something.
In any case, I'm sure we'll have more attrition over the next couple months like always, and we'll be able to make the numbers work out.
"...to replace up to seven counters who depart on or after the end of the institution's fall term or the first date of the early NLI signing period (December 15, 2021), whichever is earlier, provided the counters being replaced would have been academically eligible to compete in the institution's next regular academic term"
This can't be a freshman enrolling in the fall.
Yeah, if you don't sign any HS players I guess you can use their slots for transfers.
Wait, maybe I misunderstood your comment? I have no idea if you can sign 32 Freshman if you have 7 players leave after NLI. We're not going to do that, so I'm not interested in researching it.
In an earlier comment, you said:
Yes, I understand that the former players being replaced are transferring out. But as far as I can tell, there's no limit of only 7 transfers. Since we have 20 freshmen signed so far, if we have 6 more players leave by April 1 (plus BB, who left after 12/15), we could theoretically sign 12 transfers, bringing the total to 32. Or we could sign 12 more freshmen on NSD in February. Or any possible combination of transfers and freshmen totaling 12.
Unless, of course, there is something that I'm missing in one of the links that have been posted, which was why I asked in the first place.
If we get 7 Transfers...QB, OL(2-3), WR(1-2), DE(1), DT(1) please!
To turn it around, 3. To get to glory days, 6. Could be 5 if we strike lighting and go for a run in Year 4 or 5 but expectation should be 6.
If I can manage to watch and/or listen to the entire broadcast instead of turning it off in disgust for more than 1 game next year, he'll have done better than the last 3 years of Fuente.
You know what sucks about the portal. You can only get 8 a year😔
I hear the numbers always work out.
My campus minister at VT played at Georgia Southern and Grambling State and just texted me the following. "VT's new coach Brent Pry was my defensive coordinator at Georgia Southern. Y'all got a steal! He's an excellent coach!"
When I asked how he treated his players, he followed up with this. "Yes, he was everybody's favorite coach, really down to earth, and very approachable. I loved his passion for the game and the man is a genius. We had one of the top defenses in the country under him! I'm surprised it took him this long to land a head coaching job. I think this is an A+ hire!"
Listening to Clemson's 10-win seasons streak brought back losing to FSU in 2012, when our streak ended. It's like our program succumbed to an attitude of failure. I'm not sure how long Pry needs, but I personally, would like to see an attitude change come year 1.
Attitude alone would put us on a path to success.
Beamer left Fuente Ford, Bucky, Cam Mitchell, Wyatt Teller, Nijman, Settle, and the Edmunds Brothers (among others, all of whom I am sure were Bad Apples). Fuente left Pry...uh...Payoute?
This is going to take a minute to fix. At least they already removed that damn "grit" tag from the helmets.
Moore, Moore #2, Artis, Hollifield, King, Thomas, Strong, Tisdale, Clements
I actually think the WR and secondary group has a good amount of young talent.
There are players that I want to see, Lofton, Jones, payoute, Harvey, but they don't have expierence. So until they ball out who knows what we have in them.
Some one just offer Aaron Moorehead $500k to come coaches these guys
The difference is not 1 of these guys is an NFL talent. Or even All-ACC. They are, arguably, starting level caliber. That's it. Other than Peter Moore. He's a stud.
Put some respect on Peter Moore's name
Peter Moore, Moore #2, Artis, Hollifield, King, Thomas, Strong, Tisdale, Clements
It is obviously going to take time. 2-3 years. What is promising is that we'll have someone actually focused on the portal on the staff. That dude needs to earn his money and get some players on this team. We need 1-2 QBs, 2-3 WRs, 1-2 OL. Then we need to hope that Gallo, Blackshear, etc. stay. The new strength and conditioning guy needs to get these guys working out Rocky style in the offseason and the whole program needs to have a great spring. That might get us above .500 next year.
I thought blackshear already announced hes leaving for NFL
I believe he's hoping Blackshear will change his mind.
I could be wrong about this but I thought once they declare for NFL there is no reversing that decision
I always thought the point of no return was when you sign with an agent. But not sure either.
All I can say is Northern Illinois played what, 12 Freshmen?? They won 9 games and looked pretty damn good.
NIU has a good coach who will be in the P5 in due time.
If the product on the field looks like football, I'll be fine.
What we've seen over the last few years did not look like football
CBP has about 8 months until our next game. With our soft OOC and in-ACC schedule, we should be at or very close to .500 in 2022. We didn't hire CBP to resign ourselves to losing. We have a lot of good young players and we need to use the portal (QB Please). We are VT, let's turn this thing around and let's get it.
I appreciate the optimism! Just as long as it doesn't immediately turn to pessimism in the event we go sub .500 in year 1
Take all expectations for a decent record next year and burn them. Seriously, it's very likely we have the worst team we have seen in a long while with players playing out of position, few playmakers at skill positions, and a coaching staff trying to instill a new philosophy on players they didn't recruit. Next year is less about wins and losses and more about establishing the foundation for which the Pry era can move forward.
I'm thinking something like 4-8 or 5-7. Anything above that is just gravy. Honestly, I won't be upset with 2-10. Just want to see the effort from the team, working hard, a coach that plays to win, etc. Then to see some improvement in year 2 with solid recruiting. Then respectability in year 3 and, hopefully, a good team in year 4 and beyond.
Yep. I am fully prepared to consider 6-6 a successful season if that happens.
I wouldn't take too much from the bowl debacle yesterday. Kinda looked to me like our out-going coaches may have sabatoged any chance of respectability for the game, and the players probably knew it, and it snowballed downward from there. I knew with our QB situation that there wasn't much of a chance, so when you run a combination of designed QB runs and screen passes about 80% of the time, and the opposing team basically knows you're not going to open things up with the QBs you have, it will be an uphill battle to even be competitive.
I don't think our situation is as dire as we think, given the right combination of coaching up these guys and use of the portal, primarily to acquire an established or semi-established QB. Hopefully, our new S & C guy will also make a difference. But realistically, I don't see us competing for an ACC title until about Year 3 or 4. However, if we work the portal and roster management right, along with some good coaching and a new attitude, we could remain bowl-eligible from the get-go.
I don't think the new staff "sabotaged" anything instead of just being incompetent as always. If anything, that game was just confirmation that the biggest issue was not Fuente, but rather the staff that he had assembled and steadfastly defended.
Basically, they sabotaged the game by coaching it to the best of their ability.
I appreciated this comment from Coach Price, even if it shouldn't need to be said, I don't know if it was ever actually said by Fuente: (emphasis mine)
[A bad loss] doesn't stop a person from caring about somebody because you lost a football game, and I care about those guys. They care about this program, and the guys that are moving on should always feel welcome to come back here any time they want, and the guys that are coming back, obviously, we need to go to work and be better than we were today."
I'm pretty sure Fuente said that if you go in the portal you aren't welcome back.
4 years honestly, that would be his first actual recruiting classes time to play as r-So, mixed with hopefully some good portal luck and we might see 9-3 in 2025 which kind of makes me want to cry a little.
I hope the previous staff enjoys a nice big bowl of shit soup for absolutely cratering this program
My expectations are low, these next few years. But short of a major scandal, CBP needs at least 3 seasons to turn things around.
As for the rebuild, my expectation is:
really kinda depends on how he uses the portal for the next two years, and how next years freshman class looks
Depends - are we in year zero?
We're in year -4.
Watching the Gamecocks-Tar Heels game...one can make an argument that Shane has turned the Cocks around in year 1, I don't see why Coach Pry can't do it for us.
I like the cut of your jib, but I think we should start with a conservative estimate if we're going to base our expectations on it.
Hope for the best, prepare for reality. At the same time, some of us (myself included) gave Fuente too much rope, and we got nothing for it.
While your point stands, looks like uncheat making a game of it.Never mind....
I have a similar thought. Shane Beamer and Mel Tucker both built up sub-.500 teams really quickly. I don't know why we can't be .500 next year - I would be interested in seeing how VT's roster compared to MSU's end-of-season 2019 roster, or SCar's end-of-season 2020 roster.
I think we have some potential on the WR room with Lofton and Payoute, the RB room has enough options that three of them have to be serviceable and I think between Malachi and Kenji we have enough to fill that position by ACC Coastal standards. OL has enough capable bodies and TE room is solid. QB is the major need and that side of the ball is on track.
Defensively the line is non-existent. Need major transfer help there. The LB have some guys, but they need S&C and some coaching, secondary has some athletes and with a good off-season to get the mental side of the game, we should have a competitive starting secondary. Depth is gone though and next year's team will have to gut out some wins.
Bowl game is the goal for next year, 8 wins the year after, and Coastal contention in year 3. Year 4 I want the Coastal title back to being ours to lose
Definitely cost us a few this year.
This is exactly where I am at. 6-6, 8-4, then contention in year 3. The 2021 and 2022 classes are not terrible. In 2022 we pay for the 2020 class being sub-par as there are less young guns stepping up. Still I see the portal and the benefits of competent coaching on offense as well as upgraded coaching on defense boding well for us. Still holding out hope we get Joe Randolph for the o-line coach as that could be a game-changer.
6 wins and a bowl game is acceptable for next year. This roster is fucked beyond immediate repair.
8 wins next year and pry deserves a medal.
I will hope and pray for a W every week, and will realistically be happy with a bowl game again.
I don't care how many games we lose as long as we are competitive. As much as I'd hate to lose 8 or 9 games, I'd rather lose a bunch of close games where we played well but just couldn't quite hang on than get blown out by 5 touchdowns and look completely incompetent.
After watching the game yesterday i'm not sure if we can win 3 games next years. There were not a lot of players sitting out of yesterdays game that are coming back next year, so realistically that's our team. Sprinkle in a few true freshman plus maybe a couple late transfers, and I just don't see how anyone can say we're a 6-6 team. We were a 6-6 team this year, and the team last night looked significantly worse then the team that opened the season against UNC.
Realistically, what transfer QB is going to come here. The OL will be extremely raw, as will the WR's, that's a bad combination for someone trying to impress NFL scouts. So realistically, we're looking at some likely career back-up caliber QBs who are looking for any shot to start regardless of the circumstances. That's not the type of QB who's going to turn our program around. That means we need to have a really, really good recruiting class, and I fear that's going to be a hard sell when you are 3-9.
I hope I'm wrong, but i fear it's going to be a very rough couple of years.
Turn the program around? Hopefully Day 1. We need to return to being a program that is actually physical, tough, and intimidating. Not the mamby pamby bs "Hard smart tough" we had with Fuente.
If there's one thing that I learned from the Fuente era, it's that I don't want to watch and hear the same thing over and over for years and expect different results. That's insanity. Let's be honest, if Fuente had fired Corn 3 years ago and made changes, we wouldn't be THIS mad at him. His biggest downfall wasn't that he wasn't capable, it's that he didn't try to change anything to improve.
Im willing to give Pry (or any coach for that matter) as long as it takes if changes are being made when necessary, we're playing actual football, and we continue to throttle the little brother to the north.
Leaving some out I'm sure. Hopefully, we hold on to a lot of these guys. If so may not be so terrible. Really need experienced OL, a DT, and a QB from the portal (or Bullock or Farrell to make huge strides in spring ball).
DT Pollard, Kendricks, Fuga, Pene (please gain 20 lbs) Mamudi, Grad Transfer (Seviceable/ ok)
DE Garbut, Griffin, Carrol, Nelson, One of the freshman (Serviceable)
LB Tisdale, Dax, Artis, Ferguson, Keller, Rudolph (looks good)
S Connor (hopefully), Jenkins, Peoples, Stroman, Hawkins (Looks good). Don't forget about McDonald twins who will be 6-4 220+
CB Strong, Chatman, Harvey, Elijah Howard (serviceable)
OT Clement, Dzansi (hopefully), one of the R-Fr, Grad Transfer (troublesome)
OG Moore, Hansen, Grad Trandsfer, one of the R-Fr (troublesome except for Moore)
C Goodner, Hollifield, Grad Transfer (Yikes)
QB Bullock, Devin Farrell-early enrollee, Grad Transfer, (Yikes)
RB Thomas, Christian, etc etc. (Good)
WR Lofton, Payoute, Jones, Wright, Lawson, etc (Good)
TE Killer G's- Gallo, Gibble and Gosnell as TF (Serviceable)
or
H Back Blumrick. Dude you're not a QB. Gain 25 lbs and make some Sunday cash.
Hype Vid! 1 Year!!!!!!!!!!!
LBU!!
Probably 3 years at minimum. But watching the two playoff games this year has got me feeling pretty negative that reaching the promised land will ever be possible. The best case scenario for VT ever again seems like a miracle season to get into the playoffs and then a curb stomping by the likes of one of the SEC juggernauts. Programs like Michigan and Notre Dame, who have more talent than we can probably hope to ever get, repeatedly get demolished in the post season.
College football in general needs a shakeup to keep the majority of fanbases engaged for much longer.
He already is turning it around. He's a breath of fresh air and offering a window into the program after the nonsense we put up with the past six seasons.