With Virginia Tech needing a few wins in the ACC Tournament to bolster our chances at an NCAA Tournament invitation, I wanted to create a post to track the progress of our bubble competition. The website Bracket Matrix is an aggregate for over 130 bracketology services, which I believe provides a more objective portrayal of the bubble than Joe Lunardi's predictions. Below are the current rankings as well as their conference tournament status:
IN
Miami (138)(140) - 3/10 vs Boston College (W), 3/11 vs Duke (L)
Wyoming (135)(136) - 3/10 vs UNLV (W), 3/11 vs Boise State (L)
Michigan (141)(133) - 3/10 vs Indiana (L)
Notre Dame (136)(107) - 3/10 vs Virginia Tech (L)
Rutgers (107)(105) - 3/11 vs Iowa (L)
SMU (84)(100) - 3/11 vs Tulsa (W), 3/12 vs Memphis
Indiana (20)(97) - 3/10 vs Michigan (W), 3/11 vs Illinois (W), 3/12 vs Iowa
Xavier (137)(91) - 3/9 vs Butler (L)
OUT
VCU (58)(64) - 3/11 vs Richmond (L)
Wake Forest (135)(56) - 3/9 vs Boston College (L)
Oklahoma (9)(55) - 3/10 vs Baylor (W), 3/11 vs Texas Tech (L)
Virginia Tech (5)(24) - 3/9 vs Clemson (W), 3/10 vs Notre Dame (W), 3/11 vs UNC (W), 3/12 vs Duke
Dayton (10)(11) - 3/11 vs Umass (W), 3/12 vs Richmond
BYU (14)(10) - 3/4 vs Loyola Marymount (W), 3/5 vs San Francisco (L)
(# of brackets selected 3/9 out of 141)(# of brackets selected 3/11 out of 142)
I will strive to update this daily, but feel free to post updates in here or discuss our competition!
Comments
Thanks for this, good reference going into the tournament we'll certainly need some bubble teams to lose.
I think its really 10 teams (Dayton, UF, A&M, VT, UVA, BYU, IU, Bonny, VCU, OU) on the outside fighting for 5 spots currently held by: SMU, Xavier, Michigan, Wyoming, and Rutgers.
We need at least one quad 1 win (probably 2) to pass any of those currently in teams and would be in a lot better shape if they all drop games early in their conference tournament.
Despite not having a coach, I feel pretty confident that Michigan is in. With Wake losing to woeful BC a moment ago, I think they are firmly back in bubble consideration. As for the teams in contention, I agree with the exception of A&M; despite playing in a strong SEC, they have hardly any notable wins. Not a single bracketologist has them in right now.
Yeah maybe it's just that I want Michigan to be out so bad. 13 losses, gonna be 14 after the tourney. They could end up only being 3 games over .500.
Wake is probably safe unless we beat ND and UNC to make the finals imo. Single digit losses, 5th place in the ACC, they're probably fine unless the committee weights our metrics and late season performance ahead of them
annual reminder that Joe Lunardi anagrams to Dale Junior
Butler beats Xavier in OT! Keep those favorable results coming please
That helps us...of course if we'd beaten their backups early in the season we would be sitting a lot better right now.
I know 😓 keep telling myself worry about the game tonight and the tournament ahead, not the past. It's tough
It was certainly hard watching that game and thinking "yes we're a tournament team", but a win's a win!
Tournament teams win.
We won
something something survive and advance!
If you win every game, you cannot lose!
We're telling you there's a chance.
Need VT to win, need UVa to lose.
Always ... and it doesn't matter what sport or what year
Or for what reason. UVa must lose. Always.
Well, so far this is working out...
Xavier loss is good. Tomorrow it would be nice if we could get at least 3/4 of Indiana, Wyoming, Boise State and San Diego State.
Unfortunately TCU, Iowa State, Creighton and Michigan State are probably too far in to be affected by a loss tomorrow. BUT our NET is higher than all of them, so it could not hurt for them all to lose their conference tourney openers
Well lunardi makes zero sense now....somehow uva moved up to first four out and we moved back to next four out?
He was basically giddy after our game last night predicting that he'd move us down. Guy just loves to be controversial and hear himself talk.
That being said, we probably need to make the ACCCG to have a legit shot. Too many bad losses on the resume, and lost to too many teams we are up against on the bubble.
Lunardi does his bracketology to get clicks/air time. I am (slightly) more interested in the composite and really only interested in Sunday night.
That being said, I think we have to make it to the finals to get in, and at that point we should just win it all and take the anticipation out of it.
Edit: Aluma beat me by a minute with this comment.
I endorse the typo in this edit!
At some point I should probably just change the avatar to further confuse 😎
LOL - I'm just going to leave that typo in there.
read that and though," oh shit, Aluma TKPs??"
Lunardi is a clown. He changes his picks hourly. People think he 1. Is "predicting things"? lol- changing picks is by definition not a prediction.,. and 2. The committee actually listens to him. Neither are true. He got famous by filling out 100 brackets in his office and was called "joey brackets" by co workers. If he locked his "predictions" down march 1st, I'd have much more respect for him. Not to mention... "predicting" that Duke, Arizona, Wisconsin, UNC, Michigan State, Kansas are in the field of 68 is just fucking genius. genius I tell you.
Your definition of a prediction isn't what the "bracketologists" are doing and nobody, ever, at any point, through any medium, has claimed that the goal is to predict the results of games. They are attempting to predict how the committee will rank teams given the known results. So of course the predictions change hourly along with the results, that's literally the entire point.
I never said they predict VT vs Clemson either. I never said that at all. He is "projecting"- better word- who will be in the field. So to your point, if he changes that every 5 minutes, who fucking cares? He is playing the result. Which we can all do. Hey, I bet VT gets in the field at 11:30pm Saturday night if we win the ACC title. I am projecting that at 11:35pm. Subscribe to my blog. Thanks
100% agreed that "projecting" is a better word for all of this
He's predicting who the committee will select
You literally said he should lock his picks in, meaning projecting results. He's changing the projections as the results happen because the whole point is to predict how the committee will interpret the results in their rankings. As we get closer to selection sunday more results are locked in, and the bubble shrinks. That's what every single analyst making projections does, so I'm not sure why you're singling him out. If you think the whole endeavor of predicting the bracket is useless, that's an odd hill to die on, but go for it. But the reality is that 99% of fans would have no idea how to parse 100s of resumes and years of committee behavior to whittle down a bubble to ~20 teams to keep track of during the stretch run of the season.
I hear you, but I honestly don't think an average fan that pays a bit of attention would do much worse, honestly. Villanova is in I bet. And I bet Lousiville is out. I bet that the NEC gets only one team in. I bet Duke gets in, and I bet syracuse is out. I honestly don't think a decent CBB fan would do much worse than lundari
5-year average score of all the brackets that bracketology 101 covers. Lunardi is 55th of 135 - so right in the middle. And these are brackets that include other large sports sites, nationally recognized rankings, and people that have far more time than the average fan to create their own computer rankings. Still very pedestrian for somebody that has the resources and reach of ESPN.
And being reductionist to "Duke and Villanova are in, Louisville and Syracuse are out, hurr durr see how easy it is" is just missing the whole point.
I was being serious. If you and I started in December and did basic game watching research. You would have projected Duke, UNC, UVA as in from the ACC right off the bat, based on the last 20 years, talent, the ACC's reputation. Here we are days from selection sunday and 2 of those are locks and UVA is on the bubble. From there- based on last year, polls, watching the league any reasonable person would have projected VT, FSU, Miami, and Louisville to be in the conversation. Well Miami is in, VT is on the bubble. So a joe schmo fan, 3 months from selection sunday would have hit 6 of 8 in terms of in or on the bubble. Do that for the B1G- Mich State, Wisky, Michigan, Indiana- likely in in december.. do that for the Big East. Honestly getting to 34 at large teams with slightly more than casually following the sport is not impossible to do. Now granted the final 2-3 spots are going to be more difficult- but not so much 3 days before the selection.
There's still a problem if he has soft influence over the bracket
Tell me you don't understand bracketology without telling me you don't understand bracketology. The goal is to fill out the bracket as close to what the committee will release on Selection Sunday. Teams in, as well as seeds.
Every bracket before then is just theater to get people talking, like every other poll/ranking, but the whole point is to update your bracket with new results. Nobody fills a bracket out on March 1st and leaves it alone - that just defeats the whole point.
LOL. right, I don't understand braketology. I don't understand that this is pay content in some places for 50 year old men to look at a poll that changes every 10 minutes. I totally don't understand that. LOL. Im in the wrong business.
More in the zero sense column...
Xavier was a last four in, loses to a 13-18 team badly, and has lost 6 of their last 7 games. Yet they still fall in the last four in category.
No way Xavier has more of a pulse than VT at this point - especially because they cannot garner any more wins.
add to that, they are 2-8 over their last 10 games
I'm thinking of the many times we've been snubbed because of an early round loss in the conference tournament and poor finishes to the season despite overall strong resumes.
He just made a post on Twitter that has things back where they were last night. Dude is all over the place.
But as many people point out - the only reason Lunardi is special is that he's the mouthpiece for ESPN. Other bracketologists have been much more accurate at projecting the bracket than he has.
True. But check out bracket matrix and we are in almost no brackets there
I mean.... we shouldn't be in any to be honest.
The ACC is hot ass this year. We have a resume that is littered with bad losses and far too little good wins. If you take a step back and look at the landscape of what the sport was this year, we don't deserve to be in. The only reason we're even in the discussion is because we're ACC and putting more ACC teams on the bubble drives page clicks. In reality, the league should feel fortunate to have 4 teams in the tournament this year.
I like some hot ass. But right now we should not be in. If we win today and play really well tomorrow, then maybe. Win 2 more and I think we should be in.
So you think we're on the bubble?
Right now I think we are in position to be on the bubble. If we win tonight we are on the bubble and if we win tomorrow too, we are in real good shape.
scrolled through the games and two of the last 4 in have already dropped, and BYU fell flat last weekend. Eyes are on Indiana (11:30 vs. Michigan), and Wyoming (5:30 vs UNLV) today, and of course it means nothing if we can't beat ND.
After that it's Dayton and SMU that get the attention, and they dont play their opening tournament game until tomorrow.
EDIT: Interesting to note that ESPN still has Wake and Xavier in as 12 seeds. The losses moved them down a notch but not enough to take them out of the projected bracket. A win (or two) but any of the aforementioned teams above is going to be necessary to knock either of those two out.
If Wake is not getting in, we are not getting in unless we win the ACC tourney. Wake should be a lock. Acc is in big trouble if not.
There are no members of the ACC on the selection committee
Wake's non-conference strength of schedule is abysmal. In the 300's. Ask Seth Greenberg how that works out.
Wake's record look like this: Quad 1: 1-4, Quad 2: 4-3, Quad 3: 9-2, Quad 4: 9-0 with a 44 NET ranking. Their only two quality wins are NC and ND, both at home. Non-conf SOS = 345. 20 Quad 3 and 4 games - 18 of their 23 wins from that.
VT Record: Quad 1: 1-5, Quad 2, 5-5, Quad 3: 7-2, Quad 4: 7-0 with a 36 NET ranking. Two quality wins are ND a home an Miami on the road. Non-conf SOS = 155 16 Quad 3 and 4 games, 14 of the 20 wins from that,
If VT beats Notre Dame and North Caroline (2 more quality wins) I would argue that Wake Forest should be left out if VT doesn't make it.
Great post. thank you, but at some point some teams have to get in the torunament. They have to fill the bracket. Rutgers sucks, Indiana loses 6 games at a time, Xavier has sucked recently. I mean someone has to get in. Michigan will have 13 losses, etc. the a 10 and WCC will get an extra undeserved team like they do every year, but still.
And I love how every year we play 90% the exact same schedule as UVA and their SOS is like 8 and ours is 308.
VT - SOS = 91, out of conference = 155
UVA - SOS =85, Out of Conference = 201
Obviously they benefit more from playing us than we do from playing them
So Notre Dame is NET 50 right now so if we lose it will be a quad 1 loss and if we win it will be a Quad 2 win bc theybwill drop out of top 50. Is that correct?
But then they would have another quad 1 loss lol. Guess it depends on whether any teams directly below them win.
This Michigan collapse is bad.
Indiana's win (more Michigan's loss) there definitely doesn't help. Michigan was up 43-60 with 12+ minutes left, let up a 19-2 run and finished with 69 total points that was horrendous.
Is Michigan safely in?
They were in all 120 bracketology brackets before the loss
Yeah I don't know that I agree with it since they only had 17 wins and I don't think the B1G is as strong as everyone thinks but I don't see them dropping out.
Bummer! Hopefully the Committee regards them unfavorably since their coach is an ass.
Part of me hopes this would be the case, but even if they did, I think the most likely scenario is they'd swap Mich (currently in) for Indiana (currently out). It's easy to justify considering what just happened
Well they are 5-9 in quad 1 wins. We are a grand 1-5. Also their Net SOS is number 4 in the country. Ours is 81st
I'm not saying we should be in their place, I just don't think they're a tournament team.
True
Side to side resume test via https://barttorvik.com/teamsheets.php
Metrics
UM: NET 31, KPI 31, SOR 37, BPI 26, KPom 29, SAG 20
VT: NET 36, KPI 71, SOR 64, BPI 21, KPom 31, SAG 36
UM vs Q1: 5-11
VT vs Q1: 1-5
UM vs Q1/2: 8-14
VT vs Q1/2: 6-10
Michigan's record is trash, but they've largely benefitted by playing in a stronger conference than we have. Way more Q1 opportunities and they've seized enough of those opportunities. They're definitely better than us on almost all metrics, especially the ones that deal with your overall resume (NET, KPI, SOR).
Unless VT makes the final - I don't see us taking a spot over Michigan.
That's all great, but Michigan is 17-14. Granted Oklahoma was 6-12 in their own league a few years back and got a bid because of a huge road with at Fordham in the non-con.
Safely in? Not really. I've seen them anywhere from in ( just about above Last Four In) to Last Four In. They're closer to in than the ACC bubble teams (Us, UVA, Wake). The loss likely doesn't hurt them too much. But since its Indiana with the win, that hurts more.
Radford and Buzz still out here helping Hokies. aTm took down Florida, who is basically in the same bubble spot we are.
aTm and Florida was basically an elimination/consolidation game. The winner stays on the bubble and gets a small boost at the expense of the losing team.
Man I'd like to see Radford on this team. We're missing a player that can take it to the rim like him. Would really compliment our shooters and big play.
Add A&M to the bubble. Florida should be safely below us now.
Also fuck Michigan, their 14 losses and their hothead coach. They are the least deserving team in the conversation
I agree Michigan isn't a tournament team and Juwan Howard shouldn't have made contact with another coach, but I don't think that makes him a "thug"
You don't think Juwan Howard is a thug? As a D1 head basketball coach, he had had multiple altercations with another coach. What would cross the line into thug category?
I mean he punched one coach in a conflict he started and threatened to kill another. He's a hothead known for starting altercations.
For me he fits into that category of toxic coaches that I think are bad for the game. Right there with Mick Cronin, Fran McCaffery and a few others.
I think it's the use of the term "thug". At least for me. Leaves a bad taste.
Absolutely a toxic hot-head coach who looks like his days at Michigan are numbered, just like VTfan29 said above it's just the word thug I disagree with.
Locked this before it gets thugly, so to speak.
The word "thug" is racially charged, even leading John Beilein to resign as head coach of the Cavs. Nobody calls Fran McCaffery or Mick Cronin thugs -- so why call Juwan Howard one? Even if the racial undertones aren't intended, the word is almost definitely going to be perceived that way in this context
Ok I will change then. For the record I do call Mick Cronin and Bob Thuggins that regularly irl, but I see what you're saying.
The most important point anyway is that they suck at basketball and their coach should be fired.
Guess I unlocked it too by accident lol.
thanks for being receptive to the feedback
Do you all think we are in no matter what with a win tomorrow, does it need to be UNC, or do we have to win the whole thing???
As far as who I'd rather beat to get to the ACC tournament.....
UVA: Kill their bracket chances with a direct head-to-head win
or
UNC: Q1 win and go at least two rounds further than UVA.
UVA. When the choice is A.) Beat UVA or B.) anything else....you take A
Buddy of mine just pointed this out and it made me cringe because it's true. you know Damb well refs are gonna do everything they can to get UNC vs Duke in the finals so coach k can get one more win vs Unc as revenge before he's done
Taking my O&M glasses off for a minute, you have to admit that's a pretty compelling story line...lol
If that does happen I hope UNC double the margin of their last game
EDIT: Stupid autocorrect/bad typing
I'm prepared for most of our team to be in foul trouble 6 minutes into the 1st half
That started to happen last night against the Irish .....
Heck , it happened against Clemson both times.
My dad pointed that out to me on the phone last night, and he has ZERO allegiance to any schools (he went to Canisius in Buffalo). I'm not sure what to think about it. But, the way things have gone in all aspects of the world lately, I would not be surprised.
What if Miami beats Duke? Not impossible. People are overlooking that. Miami is dangerous when they can shoot- they are a veteran team
Miami played into OT yesterday, might affect the legs. 5 v 8 is always hard.
Uva has zero offense sheesh
Was talking to a UVA coworker today and even he admitted their offense has gotten painful to watch. Said he fell asleep during their game last night it was so brutal.
"has gotten" as if it hasn't been for the last dozen years or so lol
Based on the eye test we look much more like a ncaa tournament team than the hoos. 13 points in a half? Yikes
Based on their performance the last couple of years, is Bennett's seat going to get warm? He needs 2-3 NBA players for his system to work.
Not a chance. He's had 8 straight seasons he's finished in the top 25, and 5 of those were top 10 finishes, 4 were top 4 finishes. UVA wasn't a basketball school before TB. He's not getting fired for being on the bubble for the first time in 9 years.
Yep, and in high revenue sports, he's all loluva has.
He went 35-3 and won a national championship 3 years ago. I think that gets you some leeway.
Not for LSU Football, but your point stands. TB is loved in Charlottesville. He isn't going anywhere unless something truly horrendous happens.
He has a top 10 class coming in this fall.
https://247sports.com/college/virginia/Season/2022-Basketball/Commits/
If I'm a betting man the one team currently in, that the committee does not like is SMU. Our ratings are probably good enough to get in over them, if we beat UNC tomorrow. Then we just need help with Indiana and Dayton losing tomorrow. And for some peace of mind, Texas A&M, VCU and Rutgers as well
So let me get this straight, we beat UNC, play in the ACC final, and we still aren't at least in Dayton with 22 wins? GTFOH
WOW just looked at Bracketology on ESPN. Saw Xavier as last 4 in but they are 2-8 in their last 10 and 8-11 in conference. Something is wayyyy off.
It's called bullshit.
Supposedly the Committee doesn't take recent play into account and they evaluate the whole season. So if a team gets hot the last month (like us) or stinks the joint out (like Xavier), it doesn't sway them.
"What have you done for me late...hey, December looks nice!"
I have to think it factors in. The commentators covering us last night were pretty clear that the start of our season sucked, but with the recent surge and the eye test they said they absolutely thought we looked like a tournament team.
Which is total bullshit especially considering how teams were dealing with Covid first part of the season. Would think figuring out your best rotation and chemistry would be more important by the end of the season but what do I know
This also might be a year where the committee randomly chooses to "ignore conference tourneys"- which they have done before in their logic, and 4 WCC teams, Michigan, and Xavier all get in over us. I wouldn't be surprised.
Except that in the Greenberg years we were left out multiple times for poor recent play. It's absolutely a criteria even if they won't admit it...except when it's not I guess. There's no way they can leave this team out. I need to do some research, but what's the highest NET ranking to ever get snubbed?
I saw some statements heading into the tourney that two wins in the tourney should be enough, but now it appears the sentiment is that we have to win another.
The other bubble teams aren't losing.
I'm more shocked by the "ACC is down" syndrome by the bracketologists. This is one of the top conferences in the country. Am I missing something, or is the rest of the conference outside of Duke that bad this year?
EDIT: phrasing
Seriously, why are all the ACC teams on the bubble?
Oh I get that, just not what it has to do with having an extra chromosome.
Ah, it should read "ACC is down" syndrome. I'll throw an edit for you.
Now that you put the quotation marks, I get it. Couldn't read it any other way before (disclaimer, my nephew has Down syndrome so I guess I just jump to that).
In what metric is the ACC a top conference, because it's a power 6 in basketball? The ACC hasn't been a deep conference for years, it only had looked good because Duke and UNC and then UVA and FSU for a few years. I'd argue the ACC hasn't been good for longer than anyone thought and I miss the old BE basketball becuase that was an incredibly good conference.
I miss the days of the BE/ACC Showdown. BE BBALL was my fav as well.
Watch what CMY does.....
That was the thinking before the Clemson loss, so now we have to pay the bad loss tax with an extra win.
I saw people saying this AFTER the Clemson loss. It seems like it's because most teams in a similar boat to us keep winning.
I think this was true before we dropped the game to Clemson. Now we're teetering on the edge and I won't feel comfy unless we beat UNC.
The good news is we're going to win the whole thing so this stress won't last long.
So like I was saying
I'm amazed at some of the talk around Notre Dame. They lost to VT, and since its a quad 1 loss it doesn't hurt them much. But the VT win was over Notre Dame is only a Quad 2 win, so it doesn't help much.
This doesn't seem to make much sense.
VT beats a team that is supposed to be in - and its irrelevant. Notre Dame loses to a team that at the time is supposed to be out - again irrelevant.
VT beat them twice. Our 2 best wins. Which is why we are having this bubble conversation. Had we beaten Duke or Carolina and a Xavier and Dayton, we would be a 9 seed.
I think technically Miami at Miami was our best win.
But frankly Xavier and a couple of the other fringe teams have much worse records, schedules, and ratings than Tech. It is going to be a Greenburg type snub if we don't make it in as things stands right now.
If we beat UNC tonight (a lock team) and don't get in, then they just don't like Tech.
Not knocking Greenberg, but he rubbed people the wrong way a lot. With MY at the helm just his name and personality boosts our bubble hopes a lot.
I thought Greenberg was a great coach and honestly I think the announcing/commenting thing for him has been awesome. I think his stress levels have to have gone down a ton.
Why would his stress levels have gone down? Only because he works 1/10 as hard for more money? /s
Coaching is brutal, especially in college. Constant grind, always at risk of losing your job because you guessed wrong on a 15/16 year old. His life has to be significantly better now.
He was making 2-3 million a year as a coach, doubt he is making that as a talking head. Still a nice living, but not 2-3.
I wouldn't be surprised if he is making more. There has been some insane contracts for sports show hosts recently.
If he is, great for him. He loved Tech while he was here.
Did he though? I recall thinking he was more interested in joining the ESPN tourney broadcast after we had been bounced from the NIT. I may be remembering incorrectly, that is just what I recall.
I think he did. He was the coach during my 4 years at Tech 05-09. For our NIT home games, he personally bought all the student tickets and had them given away for free. He's a huge Yankees fan, but when they came to play/fundraise with our baseball team after April 16th, he skipped the game to practice/prep for the NIT.
You can say a lot of things about Seth, pushed the guys too hard in practice and drained them in games, didn't recruit Curry, terrible OOC schedules. But I think the dude genuinely cared about the school. I know one of his daughters graduated from Tech.
Really his big dagger was not recruiting Curry and that is all we really remember. But those were our best years until Buzz and MY.
He was also an ass to staff in the athletic department and school. Its why he got fired when he did - like mid-May, I think. Right after JJ left for a lateral at Clemson.
That's fair, but that's more under the covers stuff.
The whole quadrant system is absolutely BS. The numbers picked are completely arbitrary for home, away, and neutral. While quality wins are important, can you really say that beating the #74 team on the road is significantly more impressive than beating the #26 team at home (Q2)?
The system is so stupid. Either commit to analytics and just pick the best ranking at large teams from the KenPom (or NET...) or disregard them entirely. But it's so silly how they are misusing analytics
the point is to make the whole system so obtuse and contradictory that they can pick who they want an never be "wrong" because you can always show one data point to pick one team over another.
They're not arbitrary. On average, home court advantage is worth about 3 points and historically the 30th best team is around a 6 point favorite against the 75th best team on a neutral court. Beating the 30th best team at home really is roughly the same as beating the 75th best team away.
Also, the committee already uses both KenPom and NET. The quadrant system is just a way to get a picture of a team's overall performance against the different levels of competition (great/good/bad/terrible).
Unless you are VT playing an ACC game, then the visiting team gets the three points.
I'm watching A&M play Auburn and as much as I hate to say this, Radford was indeed a huge loss from last year. Buzz is also a hell of a college basketball coach. That is all. We gotta just keep #winning.
I personally don't think we would be having the bubble talk at all with Radford or even Joe Bam on this team. Oh well, let's just hope the third time is the charm against UNCheat.
They're right on our tail and a win over Auburn would be huge for them. Regardless, we need to pull it off against unc today
I like Buzz. Dude is weird AF but he's a good coach. I genuinely believe that the 2018/19 team makes a final 4 if Clarke could play. I also think 2013 VT Football is an 11-1 team if Kyle Fuller is healthy.
Oh come on. We're keeping our bubble afloat but everyone else is too. Indiana currently beating Illinois in a tight one with just 3 mins to go and aTm is up big on Auburn in the 2nd half.
Just like at the end of games, everything Hokies basketball this season has to be as stressful as possible right down to the end
Think our bubble just popped and it's not even 2pm - unless we win the ACC tourney. Indiana and aTm picking up big wins against teams that are much better than UNC.
Indiana won, and it looks like Buzz is going to get a W as well. So all we can control is our own performance, and show up big time against UNC.
That is very bad news for us. We better take care of business tonight and I'll be rooting hard for a Miami win before as well. Let's win the whole thing
If anything, I think a Duke win would be better, so that we have the opportunity to face a tough UNC opponent and a tough Duke opponent back to back. I think that's really the only way we get in after Indiana/TAMU wins.
It doesn't matter who we beat in the champ game its an auto bid if we win so we'd want the opponent we have the best chance against which is Miami
Let's see. They beat us by a last second three pointer then we beat them by the last second three-pointer so the rubber match would have to go into octuple overtime, ending with a graduate assistant arm wrestling contest after every player has fouled out.
continuing down this tangent, lets say both teams are down to 5 players who haven't fouled out. One player from each team - who have 4 fouls - get in a shoving match and earn a double technical.. now both sides can't field a full team on the court. Does the game end and current score stand? what if it's a tie?
I'm pretty sure you can continue to play with 4. The game just has to start with 5 on each side. At least those those are the high school rules.
If that's the case they are also allowed to sucker punch in the stomach per Boeheim standards
Drink...
Man, I totally cut myself off at the knees there, good catch heu
Edit: Not sure why my original comment warranted a down vote, I really didn't say anything offensive. Now, I did say something that was pretty stupid...
Edit 2: Thanks!
Yeah, this sucks for us. I didn't mind aTm beating UF yesterday because going in UF was close to us bubble wise and the Aggies were further down the bubble line.But Auburn is a BIG win for them which is at the very least gonna put them on the same level we're on or (likely) put them above us. And Indiana has basically played themselves in with their last two wins.
I felt we had a decent chance to make it as is going into today (like 50/50) but after these two games, its gone down quite a bit. We probably need to beat UNC now.
EDIT: Wyoming is still alive in their conference tourny too. They're currently last 4 in. Root against them winning and snagging that auto bid. A loss will keep their spot in play
Here is your 3/11 rooting guide by time slots. These are all the teams that we should be rooting for to lose:
Early games (0 for 2):
Afternoon games (2 for 3):
Early Night (1 for 3)
Late Night (3 for 4)
edit: I can't read
Can't decide if I want Miami to lose to hurt their resume and hope we can jump them or want them to win so we can face them instead of Duke in ACCT championship
I'm like 85% confident that if we go the the championship game, that we are in the Big Dance. I just want Coach K to have as early of a retirement as possible. I want him to be able to spend time with all his kids (in their 50s). I think, Duke losing to Miami and then losing to a 15 seed, would be a nice way to allow him to make up for some lost time with his family. Mickie deserves some time with her man. I hope Miami helps her get that.
Miami losing to Duke doesn't really hurt their resume at all. I get that they're considered on the "bubble" as a last 4 bye, but I think they're safely in. Plus beating UNC alone won't make us jump them, and if we win two more games, we aren't even having this conversation.
Cheering hard for Miami tonight.
Great point I'm in. Let's go Miami
We also have a win against them, so the more they win, the better
Unfortunately this same logic hurts us with Xavier, Wake, Dayton and Memphis.... I mean what are the odds we would be 0-1 against 4 bubble teams?
Wait, am I rooting against A&M because we need them to lose or we want Buzz to lose? Cause I'm down either way.
Dayton barely survived a sub .500 UMASS
#11 Providence getting worked by Creighton
C'mon! Let's win this tournament out right, and tell Lunardi and the bubble they can fuck right off!
Fuck Lunardi, and fuck the bubble
Xavier has to be the team left out here, they have been terrible over the last month.
Texas Tech barely holds off Oklahoma - that helps us a lot.
Iowa needs to get rid of Indiana tomorrow.
There is no way you could watch that game and not place us in the tournament. Absolutely no way.
It was 5 on 7 the entire last 5 minutes.
I saw calls tonight the blow the mind.
Lunardi blows. We are hopefully in..... right......
The committee would have to be certifiably insane!
There has only been one team in the last 20 years that made the ACC tournament final and did not get a bid to the NCAA tourney
The 2007 NC State wolf pack. They finished the season at 15-14 and 5-11 in the ACC before their miraculous run to the final.
Teams in the ACC Tournament by year and if they received a NCAA bid that year:
2021
Florida State - Yes
Georgia Tech - Yes
2020
COVID- Yes
2019
Florida State-Yes
Duke- Yes
2018
North Carolina-Yes
UVA- Yes
2017
Notre Dame - Yes
Duke- Yes
2016
Virginia- Yes
North Carolina- Yes
2015
North Carolina- Yes
Notre Fame-Yes
2014
Duke- Yes
Virginia- Yes
2013
North Carolina- Yes
Miami- Yes
2012
North Carolina- Yes
Florida State- Yes
2011
North Carolina- Yes
Duke-Yes
2010
Georgia Tech -Yes
Duke-Yes
2009
Florida State- Yes
Duke- Yes
2008
Clemson- Yes
North Carolina- Yes
2007
NC State- No
North Carolina - Yes
2006
Boston College - Yes
Duke- Yes
2005
Georgia Tech- Yes
Duke- Yes
2004
Duke- Yes
Maryland- Yes
2003
NC State- Yes
Duke- Yes
2002
NC State- Yes
Duke- Yes
2001
North Carolina- Yes
Duke- Yea
The previous occurrence was also NC State in 1997, when they had as many wins in the ACC tournament as they had in conference play all season.
And the previous time before that was 1978 Wake Forest, when the tournament only had 32 teams
Lunardi has us as 1st team out now.
It feels like old times. We'll be the only 20-win ACC Tourney finalist to miss the big dance. We'll have the highest NET. Probably some other stats like going 12-3 (or whatever) down the stretch and missing out. Lunardi has Indiana in for sure now. Somehow both Indiana and Michigan will make it from the Big 10. Plus Rutgers. That conference is apparently amazing even though they went 8-6 vs ACC in the challenge.
I mean Rutgers is NET 77 while VT is 33. But they've got a 6-5 Quad 1 record because the Big 10 is amazing or something.
None of it matters when we cut nets tomorrow.
Get the polish ready. We're gonna take it to duke.
This is the energy we need to have. Screw the bubble let's send it home with a banner.
30 right now
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net...
This is the trap the ACC needs to lead the selection committee into, if the Big10 is so damn good, then the ACC deserves more credit for a 8-6 record in the challenge. And if they want to give the what have you done since look, them they have to acknowledge Tech's phenomenal record over the last month and the tournament.
Lunardi can suck it. Big East is going to get exposed in the Tourney.
The Athletic has us out too
I checked CBS, but they haven't updated from yesterday.
Referencing my post above, too many pundits are saying the ACC is mediocre, down, lacks good teams, etc. Maybe it's just me, but this seems like a typical year in the ACC. A solid strong year.
There's consensus the B1G may get up to 7 teams, maybe 8. I couldn't tell you which teams they are. It just boggles my mind.
ACC has such a down year that they beat the B1G in the head to head challenge.
Huh? ACC lost the big ten challenge 6-8
Sorry, I thought I saw 8-6 us. Regardless, nearly tied.
The biggest problem there is is that the best team in the Big ten to lose a game was their number eight seat Michigan while the best ACC squad to lose was number one seed Duke
I'm gonna phrase a bit here. The season long diatribe that the ACC us down this year is garbage. All the analytics is founded on the rankings. The amount of homerism for the B10 and SEC is front and center. We have as many 20+ win teams than anyone else, but since we are down this year they aren't as meaningful. Look how long Alabama stayed in the Top 25 with less than 20 wins. Texas is ranked higher than all of ACC but Duke. I know Wake had a bad showing but with 23 wins they are on the bubble? Both conferences have the bubble watch advantage because of homers gonna homer.
Okay. Back to my coffee on this fine morning where it was a beautiful balmy day yesterday and now have a blistering snowfall.
Here's to the Hokies taking care of bitnus tonight.
Kenpom, who doesn't care about voters have ranked the BigTen teams. And Bama is 24th in those rankings. The Big 10 has 8 top 40 teams, the B12 has 7, the SEC has 6, the ACC has 4.
The ACC also has 3/4 of the worst P5 teams, UGA most really suck.
The ACC only has 2 top 25 teams in Kenpom, Duke and VT. So we should 100% be in due to the advanced metrics, but the ACC isn't good, and maybe their not down because it hasn't been good in 15 years, sure, but it's not a good conference right now.
Sagarin ratings have a similar picture with us at 31, Bama still at 24th.
How has the conference been bad for 15 years and this is the reality of the caliber of player in the ACC:
College conferences with the most players on 2021-22 NBA rosters
CONFERENCE TOTAL
ACC 80
SEC 78
Pac-12 67
Big 12 52
Big Ten 47
Big East 30
Mountain West 17
American 13
West Coast 11
Atlantic 10 5
Conference USA 5
Ohio Valley 4
Do you have a break down by team for those 80? The ACC has been top heavy for a decade. It's Duke UNC and RoYs. You have the FSU, UVA, Louisville teams that get a hot year then end up back down with everyone else. We're certainly weaker top to bottom than the B1G and slightly more recently the SEC consistently
ACC
Duke 22
North Carolina 12
Virginia 8
Florida State 7
Louisville 6
Wake Forest 5
Syracuse 5
Georgia Tech 4
Pitt 3
Miami 2
NC State 2
Virginia Tech 2
Boston College 1
Notre Dame 1
SEC
Kentucky 27
Florida 7
LSU 6
Tennessee 6
Alabama 5
Arkansas 5
Texas A&M 5
Auburn 4
Vanderbilt 4
Georgia 3
Missouri 2
South Carolina 2
Mississippi 1
Mississippi St. 1
Pro players does not mean is team is good, if it did Al Groh would still be at UVA
Pro players indicate the level of talent in the league.
Yeah, the poll rankings have nothing to do with the analytics (KenPom, NET, Sagarin, SoS). Most of those analytics are based on predictive metrics, which we have favorable ratings in, while the polls have more to do with game results, where we do not have a stellar resume.
My only gripe is how is SMU ahead of us?
That loss to Xavier could be big as they look to be the one team ahead of us.
Also how the fuck does ND get a quad one loss for losing to us but it counts as a quad 2 win for us? The NET system is really weird and I don't get how a quality win for us THAT WAS A QUAD 1 WIN EARLIER IN THE YEAR is a quad 2 win and a quad 1 loss at the same time.
To the last question (and I know it might have just been rhetorical), NET is actually pretty simple, and the wins are solely based on where the team sits in the NET rankings and where the game was played. We (30 in NET) beat ND (52 in NET) on a neutral court - beating a 50-100 team on a neutral court is a Q2 win, and losing to a top 50 team on a neutral court is a Q1 loss for ND.
Can I just say that there is no college basketball-wide conspiracy/bias against Virginia Tech basketball.
For everyone complaining about Lunardi not having us in the tournament:
1) He doesn't control who gets in the tournament, so it doesn't really matter.
2) Why would he care that we don't get in the tournament over another team, like Xavier, or SMU, or Oklahoma? All he's doing is making predictions primarily using historical baselines, and guess what? Teams with our resume have historically not made the tournament a lot. We have good predictive metrics, but our wins/losses resume has been bad most of the year, and is now just kind of ok. It doesn't mean we're definitely out, but we don't have a slam dunk case either. It's probably a toss right now like a lot of the bubble teams. Most brackets have us out right now. It's not because of some kind of systemic bias. It's because our resume isn't that good! It's comparable to other bubble teams, and not overly better or worse. That means it could go either way, and the brackets could change tomorrow, or we can just win the whole damn thing, and not worry about it.
Lunardi's opinion is plastered all over TV. It has influence.
On the public? Yes. On the committee? Absolutely not.
He basically does control it though. They rave about how he gets them almost all right every time, hasn't been under 66/68 in the last decade I don't think. It's self-fulfilling because the committee members most definitely view his material, and it influences them whether on purpose or not
He gets it right, because he knows the criteria they use. There's thirty some auto bids, another twenty-plus teams are givens, so you picking another ten teams out of a pool of maybe twenty. It's not like anyone can do it, but there's a pretty big group of people that can. He's not the only one that has a track record like that. Jerry Palm does the same thing at CBS.
Lunardi burner account? 🤔
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
He's 55th since 2015 in getting the bracket right. He doesn't control anything.
For all the shit he gets, he usually is pretty good about predicting what teams actually make it*. Now his seeding is often off, but like you said, he typically gets all but one or two teams right. Since he's got us out right now, let's hope we're one of the teams he gets wrong this year.
*FWIW, I would think this wouldn't be all that hard if someone really sat down and studied it. I'm not super into it as more prediction sites have popped up over the years, but best I can remember Lunardi would get like 66/68, same as a couple other places, and some others would get like 64 to 65 out of 68.
Guys the solution is quite simple, we handle our business tonight it doesn't matter. We have more to play for, and we are vibing much like a tournament team historically that's made a run. We win tonight, the bubble isn't even relevant. LETS GO
Yeah, despite being out manned in terms of talent, I like our chances. We are playing great team ball right now. If we have the legs and stamina to keep up the relentless defensive pressure and can knock down our open looks, our Team is better than Duke's group of players.
This. Just win baby.
We need to take care of business tonight, and shut up Lunardi and these prognosticators that have us out. We have so much more to play for tonight than the Dukies, plus we have a lot of mo that we need to keep going. That being said, I think barring a complete debacle tonight, we deserve to be in.
Here's an awful scenario...
TX A&M up on Arky in SEC Semis. What if they were to win SEC and take a spot?
Get knocked out by Brent and Co.? That would be firggin brutal.
Let's just beat the crap out of Duke and not make that a possible scenario at all.
I just don't get how Wyoming, Michigan, Xavier, or smu deserve a spot over VT and TAMU rn. And if we're being honest wake could be taken off for either as well.
Oversite for the comittee if they don't use recent bias in selection. What if a team lost their best player mid year and lost most games after? What if a team bad bad Covid issues beginning of year and started playing better late. The team changes as the year goes on and if net values constantly change as should the consideration of the teams recent level of play
Listening to the ESPN talk about the Aggies have to be in over VT.
I don't disagree that what A&M has done should put them in, but I don't understand why the conversation is about VT.
SMU, Wyoming, Xavier, and Michigan should all be below A&M and VT. Shouldn't even be a debate
TAMU advanced metrics all 20 spots lower than VT with one more q1 win but more losses. It's that SEC bias that has now creeped into basketball like it used to be only in football.
Iowa with some late heroics to knock off Indiana. IDK if that is enough to help us or not
Anything that prevents a bubble team from getting an autobid helps us. Indy is still probably in, but we'll take whatever help we can if we can't get the autobid ourselves
Win tonight and VT is:
- ACC champs: First in Program History
- NCAA Tournament Bound: Avoid the First Four
Let's pull for the guys and hope they get it done. Go Hokies!
So who we pulling for in this Memphis - SMU game?
Memphis is in already, so hope theybthrash SMU to knock them out
And Memphis is looking like crap. Down 2 with six minutes to go.
Richmond knocked off Dayton. Now you need to hope Richmond doesn't steal the autobid from Davidson
Memphis beating SMU is very helpful.
Lunardi has us in now. I say fuck him and we'll just win this game instead.
Mission accomplished FAM!
Might as well just lock this thread up now.
Can we request the mods to delete this entire thread? :)
I mean at least lock it ...
We don't need no bubble let the motherfucker burn!
bubble schmubble
THIS WAS A COMPLETE WASTE OF MY TIME AND I COULDNT BE HAPPIER
Well at least now we can cheer for Radford and the Aggies today!
Stick this championship trophy in your bubble
Sadly, we already have an empty case this one can sit in...
Shame, combined with Richmond winning the A10 it looks like Tennessee popped Buzz's bubble.
Hate to see it