Discuss and share any recruiting topics for May 2022 that don't warrant their own threads. Commits and Decommits warrant their own threads.
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Comments
Friendly reminder to add 247 links or some context when discussing a recruit! Thanks everyone
Sweet. Found the new basketball recruiting thread.Darn you gobble gobble chump. The joke isn't funny when you create the basketball thread as I wrote my post.
watchmaker pls
Basketball Recruiting Thread Here
This GIF is a sad example of how inflation has driven up the price of pixels.
Made top 6 for Woodberry Forest sleeper 3* DE Rodney Lora 247profile Originally from NJ, appears to be between Rutgers, Mich, UNC but I'm holding out hope because he's a stud.
June 25 Official Visit Picnic on the Drill Field with 100+ attendees incl families. Not sure we've had a recruiting event on the DF.
Might have snagged a football recruit
Cotman Jr pls
Smoke:
https://247sports.com/Player/Antonio-Cotman-Jr-46113906/
Oooh, I like that.
Yeah, except every school says this is home.
This is a rhetorical question. Answer already known. Its science.
https://247sports.com/Player/Khristian-Martin-46103679/
Just watched his film; I was very impressed. For a Sophomore, he stays in the pocket very well and looks to throw first before running. He had one pass where he got leveled and still completed it for a TD. It looks like he has good zip on the ball too without looking like hes trying too hard; very easy delivery. Were his third offer behind ODU and Maryland. 247 has him at 6'2 while Hudl has him at 6'4, either way a big kid for a So.
I like. In-state QB that Pry and Co. can build a relationship with.
Thank you sooooooo much for restricting this to football 🙏🙏🙏
CB for a 3 star 84 rated QB out of Georgia
https://247sports.com/Player/Dylan-Wittke-46115119/
Although, I wonder if were are looking at him as a CB instead. Saw this on his scouting report on 247. EDIT: After looking through his twitter feed it appears he intends to be a QB in college
We also just offered an OL on his team 2 days ago
https://247sports.com/player/paul-mubenga-46118372/
He performed well at the Elite 11 camp in Orlando a few weeks ago. Sounds like he would be a solid pick up for us at QB.
Yeah I saw a few complimentary writeups of him. Highly regarded in the state of Ga. Wonder why his rating is relatively low compared to the reputation he seems to have in state
He split time at QB last season with another kid who is going to play at Stanford, so didn't have the volume to really boost his rankings yet.
Strikes me that this comment could have been pulled verbatim from any thread about Knox Kadum. Kid won and won at a very high competition level in GA all through high school and just wasn't a P5 take (IIRC we "poached" him from JMU). And now it's taken him 3 years to arrive at McNeese - the level of football where everyone (aside from The Fu-Corn Clan) had him rated. Just another tale from the crypt.
Quincy Patterson had maybe the best weekend of his football life at the Elite11 and turned it into a ton of hubbub, inflated his rating, got everyone a little starry-eyed for the "raw project that the right QB coach could turn into the steal of the recruiting class". When FuCorn signed him, it was roundly seen as a big win (esp by Trent Dilfer, which in retrospect maybe should have been seen as a red flag LOL). Update: QP plays almost exclusively in a Wildcat package at NDSU - they basically don't let him throw the ball - and was flirting with the portal again last I heard.
And then there are the Dematrius Davises of the world, who was clearly drastically overrated by all the services and coaching staffs because he was a winner. Also, he was from TX, which we all know automatically adds half a star (see Wooten, Robert and Bryant, Alec). But in DD's case, everyone was fooled. Auburn swooped in and bought the resume and all the un-measurables on a player who was clearly punching above his weight. It showed (or didn't, I guess) when he arrived on The Plains. 3 years later: Alabama State.
So regarding this GA kid we are onto now with the new staff, I want to say "okay, it's early yet, maybe we're hip to this kid ahead of everyone else, that 84 will go way up". I want that for this staff, because with the program in the current state I don't expect us to be in the convo for many consensus 4*s in the immediate future.
And since this kid and Pry & Co. both have nowhere to go but up, I'm gonna sit patiently and wait. Hopefully both the recruit and our football program progress & improve over the next year.
LFGH
It's all about film though, right? Right?
QP had great camps, but his film was not good. Had flashes here and in Fargo, but not much there.
Knox was a system QB at Rome, which ran an offense similar to Corny's. He put up numbers. But when he came to VT, the offense wasn't as promised and he regressed.
DD was a talent, but belongs at receiver in college. You need arm talent in college, and he doesn't have it. He got away with it in Texas HS, but not in college.
Now we have Devin Farrell, who put up absolute numbers at Milton. He is special.
Arm talent ✅
Vision ✅
Speed ✅
Can run✅
Sit and enjoy the tape. And if he doesn't fit at QB, he'd be a great receiver.
Which really says more about the talent evaluation of the last staff, than it does our success with Georgia recruits. Georgia HS football had the most players drafted last month. The talent is there.
He just looks the part:
If he wasn't from Georgia would you even be comparing him to KK? 🙄
No. I only draw comparisons between players from the same state
Just devils advocate (I don't have any issue with anything you stated, except maybe the Texas commentary - not cuz I love Texas I don't but for reasons I'll state later):
I wonder how much our qb room and all croots for that matter simply got hampered by the resident staff at the time. with all the stuff that's come out about how things were run I wouldn't expect anyone to flourish. Add on top of that you've got a freshman with a high ceiling that's not allowed to develop because of "reasons," it's probably pretty hard for a new coach to break that cycle (especially when they already have a good throwing option). I should also note that I've always liked QP so this certainly biased but I think a decent enough coach should be able translate the camp to game ability.
As time passes the biggest takeaway I have is that the last regime probably did more damage than good in many ways. (This is the Texas thing where they were just grasping at a location like it was a video game)
I was wondering this same thing. Honest question: how much development do kids get in high school vs after? I've seen all sorts of discussion on mechanics, especially a lot on footwork including weight balance, planting feet, etc. To some extent, I think I've seen throwing motion issues too. We saw how Fuente and Corny seemed to just rotate through QBs to get something they wanted, but never even seemed to get whatever it was (and they couldn't bring Jerrod Evans back), so seemed like VERY little (if any) actual development. I know there's other things like making reads, timing for passes, etc. and some things you probably just can't coach, but how much is really that the kids just weren't good and how much is they weren't developed. I mean, if you truly had a QB whisperer, it would seem like they should be able to "coach up" a player that had a lot of success to some lower tier P5 team at least?
The other thing is how much can you even tell about what our QBs were able to do if, as I understand it, almost all the plays were predetermined and even the reads weren't real? And if a QB like KK goes in and he's supposed to run it on almost any play they give him, what sort of credibility does he really have to go to another P5 school even if he was capable of playing at that level? Granted, if Pry isn't trying to keep him and develop him, maybe KK really isn't P5 level (or if he could be, might take 2-3 years of development that he should have gotten at Tech, and considers his football career mostly a bust so just wants to go somewhere he's likely to start?
Additional info added to his 247 profile
Sounds like we are a top contender for a JUCO CB Roman Rashada with 3 years of eligibility left
247 Article
https://247sports.com/Player/Roman-Rashada-46129310/
Gabriel Arena would be a nice pickup. He is committing today @ 4pm. Mostly G5 offers, but quite a few big names with interest.
He is a 3⭐ OL out of PA
In CJR we trust.
Yep. If Rudolph wants him, that is all I need to know.
Crystal balls flowing in.
his 247 profile has certainly filled out as the day has gone on
also, of note, c/o 2025 QB for his HS was offered by Rudolph yesterday. Must have liked what he saw when he recruited Garbriel
https://247sports.com/Player/Stone-Saunders-46117119/
We should just change our name to University of VT to simplify our marketing with recruits.
maybe we can register a DBA
If he commits we'll have one more Hokie Stone
What a commitment letter!
4 OL/DL to start the class
BUILD THAT WALL
If we land another OL in this class, I think French is gonna need to see a doctor.
Because something, something four hours?
Yes
Uh-oh. I apparently have not been TKPing hard enough. Reference/context?
Something to do with being erected 😂
Ahhhh, I see. I was thinking it was a heart thing like a heart attack or something (needing to see a doctor). But that makes more sense 😂
Dante Lovett, 3⭐ ATH out of Dematha has a commitment set for Sunday @ noon on his Insta, @_dantelovett_
Cincy/Twerps/BC/VT were his top 4.
There's been some back and forth b/t him and other recruits. So, I'm interested if it has to do with VT or just recruits excited about others getting to commit to a school.
I think he has been tagged before but obligatory https://247sports.com/Player/Dante-Lovett-46115798/
His 1 CB has been to Maryland since 4/26
One of the Tech Lunchpail guys retweeted, along with a couple of staffers so my best educated guess is the good guys. Retweets from staffers usually don't happen without a commitment.
And now has a new CB for the good guys today - looks like he projects as a DB based on his recruiters
I like that 247 has him higher than the composite.
make that 4 CBs!
If Dante commits to us I will Lovett... might be Mother's Dat but there's always time for dad jokes.
now that he has committed, you gotta...
BC has been really good at identifying talent early in a recruiting cycle, so if we get a commit from a guy with a BC offer it's definitely a marker for me of a good get.
Bracing for downvotes on this, but I'm somewhat concerned about the lack of P5 offers that the small class has so far. Sure, it's early, but Tech's five commits total nine non-VT P5 offers (and six of those offers are from one player). By comparison, Tech's portal entries since April (8 guys) totaled 8 non-VT P5 offers.
I suppose what I'm saying is that the old staff would be flamed for this sort of thing. Pry by his own admittance says that they are woefully behind on this current class (and next year too, it sounds like), but it's a point of concern. It might have been naïve to think that Tech would get a recruiting pop from a new staff in the 2022 NIL age, and it might be true that Fuente dug us a hole so deep that it'll take a while to get out of it. But it's just something on my radar.
Go Hokies.
Don't think it's invalid, but the fact 3 of the 4 are lineman I feel like makes it a bit less concerning? Lineman are hard to project, and if Vice got the benefit of the doubt most of the time, I definitely think Rudolph does too for a bit. I'm waiting to cast any judgement until we get through the big summer junior days I think they have planned.
I was actually surprised it took this long for sone one to mention something since a lot of these guys would rank at the bottom of last year's class. However I agree that if Joe Rudolph has these guys as guys he can develop, I'm not going to question him because a) oline are hard to project, and b) he's Joe Rudolph
My biggest surprise us that 247 has most of these guys below the composite.
It helps to look at their position ranks. Williams is #57 ranked IOL. Consider that a 25 man recruiting class basically can fill out the number of players who start a game. Then there are two starting guards per team. If each team takes one player for each of their starting positions, then we have two guards. And... if the top 30 recruiting teams take 2 guards each, you've taken 60 guards. Williams is in that range.
We drop a little bit with the remaining commits, but not below a position rank of 79 for any of them.
If you look at Fuente's 21 class, 13 of 27 (there were 28, but the rankings for Fork Union and similar schools are weird) players had a higher position rank than any of our current commits.
If you calculate mean and median they're 97 and 79.5, respectively (I gave Bob Schick a 200 since he was unranked. If you remove that data point, it goes to 92.88 and 79.). The current class calculates at 70.8 and 73.
I'm not saying it's all sunshine and rainbows. But the average position ranking is currently higher.
So, it turned out, I had someone to watch the kids for a bit.
With the latest recruit evaluations, our average recruit rating went up. But, our mean position rating went the wrong direction. Our new mean is 71.125. Not a huge drop off.
Probably the biggest irony here is our highest rated recruit has the lowest position rank.
I know 23 is not the year we truly turn the corner but we have to keep pushing recruiting upward. Scary part is we can't just worry about the traditional ACC powers. Somehow Louisville has the #6 class in the country and is currently sitting at #1 in the ACC. NIL is definitely changing the game.
Louisville has four 4-stars from California somehow so I don't necessarily think that'll stick.
But I agree, we need some contributors for sure, especially if Pry is planning on redoing most of the roster after year 1 as some have suggested
Yeah guys I wouldn't expect 2023 to be a top notch class tbh
I think guys that don't have that many offers are more likely to commit early, since they don't have as many other good options. If you have a lot of offers, you're more likely to let the process ride out, and explore those options.
It's definitely something to keep on your radar but I wouldn't be concerned until the next class. I really can't muster the words to describe how abysmal Fuente had gotten this roster and recruiting. It'll be 3 years before we're competing for anything again
I think you are forgetting just how bad things were. Look at this quote from Pry. Not trying to harp on the past, this is a direct and recent quote from Pry that skips the coach talk and sheds a little bit of light on what kind of shape we were in when he came to town
There's also not a small bit of managing peoples' expectations in there, too.
The hope would be to work the portal and Jucos to fill some gaps for 23 and 24.
not to mention working the portal and jucos in fill in obvious gaps from the 19 and 20 classes. not only were 20 and 21 pretty poorly rated classes, the last class in our historical range (26th, 2019) saw so many players leave for various reasons. between 19 and 20 it's nester, hudson, payoute, tayvion, wooten, bryant, saunders, and beadles and that's not even scrolling past the top five rated commits in either class.
the 21 class was 44th rated but jury is still out on contributors after their t-FR year
Agree. I think people see that and really hit the panic button, but the portal in recent years has just changed things so significantly there's the potential to get back better then what left depth and performance wise.
Is anyone concerned that Pry's loyalty/respect for Franklin might hamstring us for the foreseeable future? Penn State is absolutely cleaning up in Virginia for this next recruiting cycle; I feel like there is opportunity there since Pry likely recruited some of them. However, he hasn't made any move on PSU portal guys nor has there been any chatter about these 23 recruits. I guess I'm okay with him laying off 23 players, but I hope he doesn't have this reluctance going forward since we are recruiting almost all of the same players.
I am willing to concede Pry is himself conceding the '23 PSU recruits, while not believing he won't go toe to toe with Franklin beyond that. Hell, they both would probably have fun with it.
The JUCO part I can't explain, because if those guys are gone, they're gone.
We are up against a wall with the 23 class cause of timing. It's better to spread resources on the 24 class, which we are doing, and go head to head with PSU on new connections versus trying to change the minds of kids who have been committed for 8+ months.
We also have a count issue we have to deal with. Last I checked we have gained a couple of scholarships, but still need to add to the roster. We also have some walk-ons who have earned scholarships who need to be rewarded.
So we will definitely need to address out of Juco and transfers.
No. Maybe he told Franklin in parting that he wouldn't actively target this class out of respect for Franklin and for his former players at PSU, and I'd actually respect for that. But for future years, if a coach would be unwilling to recruit against his former boss, then they have no business being a HC
No. I think if, in 3 years or so, PSU opens up and Pry finds success here, that he would leave for Penn State. But I don't think he's going to refuse to recruit h2h with PSU just because his buddy coaches there.
If you don't want to recruit H2H with mentors, and friends then you don't want to be in coaching.
That said there is something to be said about not poaching guys you recruited to come to your new school, even in the recruiting phase.
Also if in 3 years Pry does enough to get the PSU job then that's a huge win for VT.
You are not crazy, I keep wondering when we are going to see our "New Coach Bump" in recruiting.
As someone else said 3/4 are O linemen and they're almost always going to be on the lower end for schools like us. The 4th is a guy from DeMatha which consistently produces players that are developed ahead of their ranking as a prospect (similar to Highland Springs).
I feel good about the guys we got, but less good that it's only 4 so far. Then again Pry has only had 5 months and is recruiting entirely different prospects across the board than Fu's staff was.
We're going Virginia heavy for sure but I honestly don't think we should lean too much on mid-lower level guys in the state. VA/NC/MD should be the focus (all equally important imo) but we're definitely going to have to go out if State to help fill out this class the way it needs to be.
There are also probably long-term concerns that the staff has to balance with near-term prospects, especially this year.
Is it better to send a coach to see someone 5.5 hours away who's a 4-star that we would be way behind on recruiting, or to visit two closer 3-star guys we are likely to land and build relationships with closer schools?
Or, possibly at this point, the staff may go see a 4-star 2025 prospect, and while they're there, offer a 2023 guy who's a lower but uncommitted 3-star to build relationships. There's only so many guys you can recruit like that and still be successful. But if you think the 2023 class is already behind and you're not going to land lots of highly rated recruits, then it seems like at least some of those recruit slots could be used to help rebuild relationships.
As I was not concerned with Fuente's first 2 classes, I won't be concerned with Pry's. My concern with Fuente came when serious drama was brewing in the program in general. The mook and Trevon stuff etc. I am on record as saying Whit should have fired him after the ODU game and I stand by that. After that I knew he wasn't a big time coach- recruiting or otherwise. Until Pry has players fighting on the sidelines in a blowout game against Liberty or ODU while his defense is giving up 700 yards, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt in recruiting until his 3rd/4th classes or so. Then he needs top level ACC classes.
I think expecting a jump out of the gate probably was not a good expectation, regardless of NIL conditions:
I'm gonna add in a number 5 that a lot of people seem to be overlooking as well:
5. Pry and the staff needed the spring to determine what they have in the current roster, and what positions need to be addressed going forward. This automatically puts them behind in '23, which is why I think we fill a lot of short-term holes through the transfer portal this summer, and we hit our stride with recruiting the '24 class.
This is a great point!
Looking right now at the 2024 prospect list inside the 6 hour radius, I see the following 4* and 5* prospects:
5* LB Sammy Brown (Jefferson, GA)
5* ATH Quinton Martin (Belle Vernon, PA)
4* WR Alex Taylor (Greensboro, NC)
4* QB Michael Van Buren (Baltimore, MD)
4* OT Cam'Ron Warren (Baltimore, MD)
4* EDGE Ernest Willor (Baltimore, MD)
4* ATH Jonathan Paylor (Burlington, NC)
4* LB Aaron Chiles (Olney, MD)
4* LB Kristopher Jones (Stafford, VA)
4* WR Keylen Adams (Virginia Beach, VA)
4* CB Asaad Brown (Chesapeake, VA)
4* TE Jack Larsen (Charlotte, NC)
4* CB Braydon Lee (Upper Marlboro, MD)
4* WR Rico Scott (Harrisburg, PA)
4* CB Ify Obidegwu (Baltimore, MD)
4* WR Micah GIlbert (Charlotte, NC)
4* WR Channing Goodwin (Charlotte, NC)
4* WR Chanz Wiggins (King George, VA)
4* WR Jordan Shipp (Charlotte, NC)
4* ATH Troy Stevenson (Charleston, SC)
30 more minutes adds the ATL, Philly, and Cleveland prospects to the list.
I do the ATL to Bburg a few times every football season. I make it under 6 hours once or twice. There is no caveat about speed so I say it is proven to be within the radius!
Wait, we have a 4* WR in King George? I need to get to more football games!
He's a good prospect. Will get interest from all of the ACC and MD, PSU.
Yeah. I saw him his freshman year (2021). He played 2nd fiddle to Javon Campbell and didn't get as many looks as he could've on a less talented team. I don't know about last year but I know he lost his QB....
Just spitballing here.
We are unlikely to win out for an instate prospect in Georgia over Georgia
I think at best we get 25% of PA/MD prospects over PSU and OSU
I think we can get 50% of VA prospects over UVA/UNC/PSU
I think we can get 33% of NC prospects over UNC/State/Duke/Clemson/SoCar)
I don't think we land either 5*.
I think we can get 2-3 of the MD prospects, 2-3 of the VA prospects, and 1-2 of the NC prospects.
Not counting the occasional Floridian, Texan, or anybody else that surprises us, that's 5-8 4* players that we can conceivably get in that class.
We should give Pry a 10 year contract (joking) if he could pull 50% from VA. I dont think we've seen that since 2005ish
I wouldn't be joking. If he could recruit like that in the NIL era, we should lock him up for a long time or go find the bag man and high five him.
EDIT:
missed a word
You know it just occurred to me that it's going to be really funny the first time some one gets busted for inappropriate benefits in the NIL era.
It will be some BS thing at a non blueblood to send a message but not actually do anything.
A non-blueblood?
oh 100% yes
This is exactly what I've always said. A reasonable goal for VT recruiting each year:
This gives us 4-7 4-star players each year, and (assuming we fill out the rest of the class with solid depth players with a high upside) a top 25 recruiting ranking.
I was listening to The Solid Verbal spring game analysis of VT, and at one point they said "The sad thing about Virginia Tech is that they're not even nationally relevant any more, you hope Pry can change that."
This isn't news to anyone, but it was the first time hearing someone neutral saying it (because we're so irrelevant that no one talks about us).
Herbstreit said it a few times, and you got the drunk plane video to boot. Everyone wants us to be good. The perpetual underdog if you will. We need to get back there, and a Coastal Title would do a lot to get there.
Early 2000s, we were like Oregon is now, so close to a national title you could smell it. They even have the loss in the title game 7 years ago.
If Pry can win some marquee OOC games on TV that would be a good first step. Fu shit the bed in the largest crowd ever to watch a game in bristol on national TV. Beamer laid countless eggs in those too. We had so many opportunities in prime time to win and did not. Maybe thats THE thing that Pry can change. We absolutely sucked in the ACC hoops tourney until this year, so ya never know.
I don't want to bring this back to a discussion on Fu, but I remember that game quite differently. Can't blame the coach that players can't hold on to the ball.
Turnovers are coaching. The patriots are always near the top in least turnovers, so is Bama. Turnovers and penalties are coaching, IMO. Well coached teams don't have a lot of either. Also, if you are Fu, you have to beat a mediocre Tennessee with Jerod in that spot. It was a near must win.
i can kinda understand now why he had such a short leash with fumbles for the RB rotation moving forward when eleven thousand fumbles in his second game as head coach is reduced to him crapping the bed
(edit: a word)
I fully understand that FU did not personally fumble the ball. But when playing an eventual mid pack SEC team, not the 72 dolphins- coaching and play calling contributes to turnovers. Unless you think Gibbs, Bellichick and Walsh being good in that area is coincidence? Or Randy Edsall's teams having more turnovers than Beamers coincidence? If one of your RB's can't hold the ball, maybe call a pass play or sub another RB in perhaps? Coaching.
I was just happy that Tech played Tennessee, at least we looked like we were supposed to be in the game. I just hope that Pry covets competition and gets more games like this for the fans and the team. I have said it one million times- you play to the level of your competition- and we are currently playing to the level of UVA, Duke, ODU and LU.
Having a game with 6 total fumbles and not recovering a single one is ridiculously bad luck, but sure. You're comparing the outcomes from one game (the second game in a new offense with a mesh point, against relatively high level competition in a ranked P5 team) vs the entire careers of hall of fame coaches.
fwiw 2016 Tennessee tied for second best record in the SEC that year at 9-4 (UF 9-4, Bama 14-1).
Tennessee was 4-4 in the SEC in 2016- FWIW. And bad luck or not, point is that Fu's best win was a close loss to Clemson. Tennessee on national TV would have been a marquee win- unlucky or not, Fu being Lombardi or not. Way back to my original point, hopefully Pry delivers in those situations.
I can't hold back any more... TURNOVERS ARE RANDOM.
Over the course of time, EVERY college football team regresses to a mean of a ~22% PBU:Interception ratio (eg; over a 5 year period, every college football defense will covert ~22% of pass breakups into interceptions). Better teams (however you want to define 'better') will have more pass breakups.
Fumbles are even more prone to luck. There is a negligible correlation between team and fumble recovery rate. Can you coach ball security? Maybe?
All that to say - losing 6 out of 6 fumbles is incredibly unlucky.
Sources:
Finally, I leave you with one quote from the final article listed above:
Sorry mods for derailing the thread, but this is one of my college football soapbox issues.
TURNOVERS 👏 ARE 👏 (mostly) RANDOM👏
Leg for presenting an argument and backing it up with a boatload of supporting documentation.
Thank you. Great data. I honestly would love to see Saban and Uban Meyers numbers of turnovers in the first Q against Bowling Green and The Citadel vs. ones in the last 3 mins against Michigan and Auburn. I'm guessing that's where great coaching comes in. Less turnovers at critical times- regardless of the average or mean over time- can be "coached/schemed" IMO.
Do I remember correctly that we were trying a new starter at center that game and benched him as the starter after that game? That we were using a directional leading snap to create forward momentum but stopped doing so after that game because the players could not execute it correctly?
This is definitely something I'm more willing to accept: certain plays/personnel packages are less likely to result in turnovers (because the receiver is schemed wide open, or the running back can hit a hole, or the throw picks on a weak CB, etc) and certain coaches are aware of the risk that a certain play has, thus, these coaches call plays that are create less turnover opportunities. Theoretically, this makes sense.
EDIT: Also, worth noting (and I'm sure you know this, which is why you talked about these coaches' times at lesser programs) that you have to account for talent level. An NFL DB is going to have more PBUs against an FCS team than against the 2019 LSU team.
And certain defensive alignments are more prone to creating turnovers. See defenses, Virginia Tech, early 00s.
Turnovers aren't completely random.
FTFY
I know this is a bit of semantics, but, if you read my comment above, you'll see that there is a huge difference.
I think individual game has to do more with the players where fumble numbers over a full season/multiple seasons is more on coaching
85 rated 3 star WR from St Frances in MD
https://247sports.com/Player/Ryan-Manning-46129239/
Need to continue the pipeline at this school. Come and follow Cam Johnson to Blacksburg
Wait, Manning might be coming to VT? Oh, not that (Archie) Manning.
86 rated 3 star Safety from Haymarket, VA
https://247sports.com/Player/Caleb-Woodson-46129561/
Based on a conversation I had recently with someone VERY close to Caleb, he and his family were very impressed with WF, their staff, and their facilities. Also said WF may not have I high enough profile for what Caleb is looking for. They were also incredibly impressed with Tony Elliott and his story. All that to say that they really love Coach Pry. My money is that it'll come down to us and WF.
BTW, he also has a little brother that may end up being as good if not better. Would be nice to get the brothers connection going again.
VT owns the brother connection.
https://twitter.com/coachpryvt/status/1524161452503879682?s=21&t=m-AZWdp...
Bat signal out from Pry. Assume it's Wittke.
I believe that is for Marcell Baylor 3 🌟 WR from Radford.
https://247sports.com/Player/Marcell-Baylor-46129560/
Announced on Instagram a little bit ago.
Another Chris Coleman out of country commit! We salute you king 👑.
Also 6'3 👀
I feel like he timed it on purpose to be out the same week TSL rolled out the new boards and the commits are a nice bonus!
24/7 3 Star from Western Branch
This is also one of the guys that Roc Carmichael is always pushing on Twitter.
Wittke just lit up the recruiting streak. Nice to add a QB to the mix. Let's go!
Good to see that QB commit today.
But you know what infuriates me, especially because of where I live?
This.
https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/CompositeRecruitRankings/?Ins...
Look at how many blue lion logos are on that page
It sucks but hopefully that trend stops in 2024 after Pry and the staff have had a year to work the trail.
I knew that's where that link was going and I'd seen the same damn thing. Hard to effing believe how bad we get beat by PSU recruiting our own damn back yard. Pry has to understand the things that are working at PSU in recruiting VA, so getting kids to stay in state will hopefully be just a matter of time in building relationships.
And PSU has that blue-blood heritage even though they haven't really been relevant for a fairly long time. If Clemson gets back to their winning ways, and we beat all the coastal teams we should (all of them), beating Clemson would mean a playoff trip for us. We should be just as good a destination for HS kids as PSU is.
As an aside, I was downtown getting my hair cut and as I was waiting James Franklin walked by the place and I overheard him on the phone saying, "you can tell him that you build relationships on trust".
Pretty encouraging write up about Pry recruiting VA
https://247sports.com/college/virginia-tech/Article/Virginia-Tech-footba...
I think 2 out of those 4 (Cotman and Keys) would be pretty huge wins for a 1st year coach playing catch-up with this class of recruits in regardless to relationships, both with players and with schools/coaches. I won't believe Seldon is coming to Blacksburg until I see a commitment post lol.
FTFY
Which Seldon? Are we getting the young mathematician who is athletic and a Twister? Or are we getting the old Seldon that makes videos in a wheelchair?
There are a couple different ways to take this part of the Cotman quote.
Glass Half Full: kid grew up in VA and views his college experience as a way to see more of the world. I've been saying for years now: the internet/information age has given these kids such a wider view than even GenXers had access to. Home doesn't feel as far away with FaceTime and Zoom at their disposal - not to mention the fact that these kids are now signing NIL deals that can pay for trips home (and/or trips for the parents to come visit). Some kids just want to get out and experience something new. I don't fault that.
Glass Half Empty: he feels like his in-state options are underwhelming, and his parents agree - so they're focused on OOS programs. I don't fault that either. Only 2 P5 programs in the state have been largely irrelevant since this kid was in Pee Wee ball. VT is still the clearly superior program in the state, and we are boasting a post-Beamer win rate of .571. Hardly a ringing endorsement.
If Cotman's serious when he says that Pry has his wheels turning re "staying home" then that is great news. Even if it's just lip service, it speaks to Pry's impact on the young man that Cotman would even say something like that to a reporter.
I've never placed the same importance on in-state recruiting as some fellow TKPers have. Make no mistake - I absolutely think that the entire state should be in our recruiting radius, but the notion that we should favor kids just because they have a VA address is an outdated, "glory days" way of thinking IMO. With that said, I'm always pleased when we can get highly-rated, talented kids to play for us - especially when they are also considering other P5 programs OOS.
I don't think VT should prioritize a kid because he is in state but I do believe we need to get back to the point where the top in state kids are seriously considering us. I believe in order to get back to that we need to win some games and we need to start winning more recruiting battles for the 4* in state kids.
It has to be the case that kids playing close to home have a greater chance at success and winning. I'm sure a comprehensive study could be conducted that would statistically prove this thesis.
Why? Even at Tech the 757 is is over 4 hours away. Closer for them would have been 3 NC schools. Some of Tech's best players have come from FL, NC and PA.
Also NoVa has PSU, Pitt, Maryland, WVU, Rutgers* all closer than VT
*heavily traffic dependent.
Depending on where in VA (northern or Tidewater), NC State, Carolina, and Duke may be shorter to get to than Tech.
It has to become about state pride. Do you think a kid from Asheville cares that technically he's closer to Knoxville than Chapel Hill? It's one thing to lose a kid to Bama, Clemson or OSU but the days of losing our better players to MD or even PSU need to be coming to a end. We can still recruit the east coast hard but owning VA should be high on the priorities list.
I think "owning VA" is not what we should be shooting for. I think we should have great relationships with high school programs in VA, and when some great talent comes through, we get called about it and the coach is on board supporting the kid in coming to Tech. But if VA is really down one year in talent and there are some great players in NC, PA, MD, NJ, and WV, get those kids - I don't want some moral victory of saying we took 6 of the top 10 VA kids if they aren't as good in a given year as players in our recruiting footprint.
If we want to win big, we have to take the talent where it's coming from, not just in VA, unless our goal is being the best program in VA and being fine with being 3rd or 4th in the ACC.
Some of it is expectations as well - how many Alabama HS coaches do you think bitch and moan about Saban taking players from other states? They know that if their kids aren't the best out there, they probably aren't in contention to go to Baja, and I assume they're okay with that. We just have to work our way to having similar expectations with the HS coaches in VA. Because yeah, if you're not a great program and you're turning away kids in VA for kids in TX or anywhere we created a hashtag 2VT thing for isn't doing you any favors.
Yes, narrowing our focus in the modern world on the 757 and Richmond wont work. why? Saban will come in and get DeShawn hand, Dabo will come in and get Clellin Ferrell. You aren't going to change that now. Modern Virginia is a lot more transient than when Cav was finding Kam Chancellor. There are no secrets in recruiting anymore. Now, what we can do is keep shit programs like UNC and Pitt from stealing guys perhaps if we play better. But 5 stars have no loyalty to their states. They go to the best programs. What we should do is 1. Establish our identity. 2. Invest in scouting at a level to support winning the ACC. 3. Recruit based on that- regardless of where the kid is from. If Rudolph has a scouting profile for an OT, and he finds a guy in NY that fits that, so be it.
Really the biggest step. We haven't had a true identity in any aspect of football or development on the field in quite some time.
Skinny legs and jet sweeps. What more do you want?
Predetermined plays - ya know expected outcomes
Thinking about this more, QB kneel every play is the highest expected outcome play in football ...
And then like 2 time per game you can get with the fake kneel Statue of Liberty fumblerusky for a nice chunk play.
While we can all talk crap about UNcheat they have NEVER had an issue recruiting especially VA kids. They have had more top 20 classes than Tech. Going back decades, Lawrence Taylor, Dre Bly, Brynn Renner, Landon Turner etc etc.
UNC recruiting is not shit, but the product they put on that field and the results are shit.
Edit: those baby blue uniforms are shit too
If the product on the field is shit, wouldn't the recruiting strategy also be shit? Because to me, that's what they've been doing the last few years, recruiting to win in recruiting rankings, but not necessarily on the field.
Glass houses. Holland Fisher, Devon Hunter, Fred Lee, Marcus Vick, Joel Caleb, Nick Dew. Tech has chased a lot of highly ranked players in state that didn't turn out in the long run.
Say what you will about Marcus Vick, but 1st team All-ACC QB of a #7 11-2 division champion isn't exactly "didn't turn out"...
One player off that list doesn't prove your point, it just suggests a name that shouldn't have been on the list.
For all the metrics we've seen recently on blue chips and recruiting stats and everything, I feel like Fireman brings up a good point. Do they have any sort of metric on players who were rated 4 or 5 star that never pan out? Being able to identify diamond-in-the-rough type players is one thing, recruiting guys that are overrated is the opposite side of that coin. And the weird thing seems like, as much as we're arguing that guys are rated more appropriately now because of the abundance of cell phones that can take high quality movies and HUDL and stuff, but shouldn't the opposite be true - fewer guys should get overrated? But it seems like guys are transferring out of lots of programs that didn't seem to be as good as expected (take DD for example).
I guess it seems like if guys are getting overrated, there are probably players who are getting underrated still as well - the question would be how to identify the underrated ones and avoid the overrated ones.
System and fit has something to do with it too; talent gets you so far but utilizing that talent correctly is also a factor
On an individual level any single recruit could have a legitimate reason for why they didn't pan out - scheme/positional fit (Joel Caleb), coaching change, injury, someone on the depth chart really progressing ahead of them and not going pro when expected, off the field issues (Holland fisher, Devon hunter), etc.
But on the whole, 5* players are way more likely to become high level contributors and go pro than 3* players. The "hit rate" scales roughly with star rating, and the more good players you have the better off you're likely to be.
Edit: ratings have generally inflated over time, bar or brockman could speak more intelligently to that than I can. Just because highly rated players may be overrated doesn't mean you're likely to be able to find an underrated 3*. I think if anything you've got a good chance to get an 84 rated kid who "should be" 82. It's also worth checking out what the ratings intend to signal. An 86 rated 3* who is a capable P5 starter was a spot-on ratings evaluation. An 88-rated 3* who makes an all conference team and gets drafted in the 4th round was a spot-on ratings evaluation, and so on.
You can actually divide the 5* in half and the top half makes the NFL at an extremely high rate, like in the 90s% range. So they are almost always perform. The ones that don't make it are usually career ending injury or off the field stupidity.
I guess it may just seem like there are more out there that didn't pan out, which may just be me knowing of some without realizing that even knowing 5 or 10 is a small percentage of all the 4 and 5 star rated recruits.
I mean, I think everyone was expecting Hunter to come in and be an upgrade over what we had almost from day 1, but he didn't seem to be anywhere near as good as expected, even before his legal troubles. But again, that's one example, but seems like a few of our other 4 star guys recently didn't pan out. And how much of that was to blame on the previous coaching staff either for not properly incorporating their talents into the scheme, adjusting the scheme for their talents, or not developing them at all over what they'd been in high school (or combination of all those). Oh well, hopefully these new coaches do better all around.
If you look at the recent VT draftees, the only real recruiting service evaluation misses were Terrell Edmunds who was .8353 composite and 80 by 247's in-house, Greg Stroman (0.8254/82) and Christian Darrisaw (0.81 composite but given a solid 86 rating by 247)
I don't think anyone else really jumps out as "247 really blew their eval on that guy, he was awesome"
Adonis should be added to the list since he was technically drafted though in that out of cycle draft, but that means a draft pick I a future draft was used for him so he most likely would have been drafted.
86 rated 3* by 247 wasnt a huge miss but sure. He was really good
Ah, was looking at composite (84) not 247 rating.
There's value in looking at both where they're far apart. Check out Dalton Keene, Caleb Farley, etc -- 247 nailed those evals while composite was less bullish
Yeah I typically trust 247 more than the composite but was on travel so doing research on a phone I missed the composite vs non-composite usage above.
That exactly what is (source):
So if ten 5-stars are complete busts, that's still a 66% hit rate. If 66% of 4-stars hit (very unlikely, but roll with it), then there's still about 126 bust (more than 10x the number of busted 5-stars).
If you want to focus on hits... the first round of the NFL included nine 5-star players. If you assume that every year there are 30 5-stars, and each year ~9 of them are drafted in the first round, then it becomes clear that nearly a third of 5-stars are first round picks. That's insane.
I think that is the reason for having ~30ish 5 star designees every year; they're supposed to be a representation of first round draft talent.
yes, 247 caps 5*s at 32 annually
Thanks for this - makes a lot of sense!
Oh IDK getting kicked off the team for a boatload of arrests and lawsuits for being a creep and terrible person qualifies as "didn't turn out" to me. I never thought I would see the day where someone is actually defending Marcus on TKP.
The point was performing as rated. Not panning out vs rating is different than a team not getting value out of a recruit because they get arrested or getting kicked off a team for academics or other idiotic reason. Although maybe they should include that in the ratings... some sort of "likeliness to get arrested" or "likeliness to fail out" score.
I really don't think it was (or should be) bad actors are not going to perform due to not being allowed to play. 1 good season freshman or sophomore year and a flame out with nothing after can't be called performance. That's a flash in the pan.
You're still missing the point. HS ratings are supposed to indicate probable performance in college. Getting kicked off the team for a bad attitude after one year doesn't change the fact that he performed well that one year. Suppose he'd had a good attitude but had a career ending injury the following offseason - would you still say he didn't perform? What about this article about QBs who got drafted after starting just one season - did they underperform?
You can be salty all you want for him getting kicked off the team, but arguing that someone who performs well, but only for one year somehow invalidates their HS rating and that the performance seemed to match the rating for the time he was on the field.
With Marcus it wasn't a talent issue. It was more a issue of making bad decisions and not being able to get out of his brother's very wide shadow. At that point I don't think it would have matter what college he decided to attend. MV7 is a performance that is impossible to follow.
I know you are a baby blue apologist, but they have not won the ACC in football in 42 years. 42. So that type of program we are going to tolerate coming into our back yard and poaching 4 star recruits? I stand by what I said. Look past the Michael Jordan logo. I am talking about football. And just last year, they were absolute shit. A VT team with no real P5 defensive lineman beat them.
That baby blue football program has more 5 and 4 star recruits in last 20 years than Tech has. I know you don't like to hear it but when it comes to recruiting winning means very little.
It is if you care about winning anything more than the coastal over the past decade. Maybe that's changing now though with NIL and Clemson likely taking a dive.
Ill take the 4 ACC titles, they can have the zero. Thanks
The thing is, recruiting is necessary to win, but high ranked recruits care less about going to a winning program than most fans think. Recruits pick based on Relationships, how it will help their NFL stock, and the bag (this holds true before and after NIL). Going to a proven winner is below those three things for most recruits.
Hence why recruits aren't disuaded by UNC's lack of on-the-field success.
This perfectly encapsulates my feelings on the matter. All due respect, jettison the completely antiquated notion of "state pride". Kids don't care as much about it. I know people want them to. They do not. Also, the list of OOS Hokie greats is long and accomplished. (Also, sidebar: where are all the "state pride" folks when it comes to our men's basketball team (ZERO current players from VA)? Our baseball team (21 OOS players)? Why is this only important for football?)
As long as the ones we get can help Pry reestablish some "school pride", I don't care where they come from.
And then, for all the people who are concerned with "winning Virginia", we will magically start to see the VA blue-chippers in future classes scheduling OVs and taking VT seriously. And most importantly, we can stop reaching for marginal players - no matter which state they live in.
When people say "win VA" its really because we've been losing the 757 and want to own NoVa. The rest of the state is kind of meaningless athlete wise. Tech football at its prime was gobbling the 757 and nobody realizing the talent was there.
I doubt just saying "we care about Virginia now" will really matter for those recruits but it will for their coaches and that creates a pipeline.
The 757 recently has been a shell of its glory days.
Yes, but it won't always be the case. Developing good relationships with those coaches makes sure UNC doesn't come in when a star pops up.
Owning Virginia is fool's gold.
Totally disagree. Getting hot in VA again is literally the only path we have to getting in the playoff conversation. We are never going to pull in multiple 4 star players in other states consistently. There is a scenario where we can become nationally relevant but it's most likely through dominating the state. Talent is cyclical but eventually there will be a run of VA talent and we need to be the hot team when it happens again.
Wishful thinking is the best friend of fool's gold.
I don't think it's wishful, it's just the reality that we aren't going dominate recruiting in other states.
I don't think we should be narrowing our focus to VA kids but I do believe it's important to be a real option for the 5* kids. Besides maybe Ferrell VT hasn't truly been a top3 for a 5* kid in state since TT5..we can't get them all but it needs to become a tough decision to leave the state.
Win. WIN. With players from Mars, if need be.
And then the Top 10 VA kids will want to be here.
And we will take them.
If they are good enough to play at VT.
(If they're not, there's always UVa.)
we signed Devon Hunter after Clelin Ferrell (and Clelin Ferrell wasn't even a 5*)
😎
His commitment could be the most important verbal of the '23 class. For starters he'd be the first 4* for Pry, not to mention he plays at an in state powerhouse and has ties to other 804 guys that we want (Kaevion Keys, Braylon Johnson, Cam Fleming, Rainer Bros). FYI, Cotman was raised in East Henrico, would have been at Varina had he stayed in public school. He started his HS career at Benedictine before transferring to Life Christian. All three schools produce FBS talent annually. The influence Cotman could have on other 804 guys that are on the fence, between VT or going OOS, could be huge.
I really hope he makes it to Blacksburg, but we have been late to the game with the coaching change.
Perfect time for the New Coach recruiting bump to start
I like this kid a lot. Raw but talented and under the radar. Will be a tough battle with NC State and UNC
no composite yet, but 86 rated by 247
https://247sports.com/player/kamen-smith-46128598/
2 CBs today for Takye Heath
3 star 86 rated ATH (plays WR/CB) from Highland Springs class of '23
https://247sports.com/Player/Takye-Heath-46117911/
Only 3 stars. Is he a take? /s
Clearly he is a Takye.
Somebody got the joke.
Unranked 6-5 215lb TE from Chantilly.
6'-5" TE?? Slot him in the QB room, oh wait we have a new coaching staff. Staff doing work to keep bringing in that VA talent. Welcome aboard, young man!!
This is a PWO btw, class of 2022.
The gif signal is up from Pry on twitter
https://www.instagram.com/p/Cd4FNwDJomi/?igshid=MDJmNzVkMjY=
Heath commits
WR out of Highland Springs
wow, this is the most directly damning tweet from recruiting I've seen so far
Glad this young man had a good time with us.
https://247sports.com/Player/Gideon-Davidson-46116710/
Class of 2025 RB out of Lynchburg
Yeah that is wild that they could blow it hosting a local big recruit that badly. WTF was the last staff even doing other than making slogans?
Just imagine an AMA with Lino Lupinetti and all the questions he would have to dodge :-)
Or spill some beans on 🤔
Class of 25 means he's in elementary school when Fuente took over, middle schooler for the rest, and just this past year (when the wheels finally came off and we moved on), this guy was a freshman in high school. Fu & Co did a lot of things wrong but I'm not sure this is as damning as we might want it to be
Whenever his prior visit was, he had a sufficiently bad experience that he didn't plan to return. That's troubling ("damning," if you like) regardless of his age. Whether he was a freshman, middle schooler, or elementary schooler, if the regime invited and hosted him, they botched it.
The upshot is that the current regime built enough inroads to get him to come back, and gave him a good experience.
If he was that young they couldn't have invited and hosted him would be the issue. Maybe he wasn't invited to a camp and that's the rub?
Maybe. I don't claim to be an insider, but what I do hear is that it's pretty simple in that there are few primary differences.
One, is the embracing of genuine effort and how it is needed. Everyone gets how the recruiting game can feel unfair and stupid, but this staff accepts the business they are in and have moved to maximizing it vs complaining and resisting.
Two is that this staff simply has a more organized, comprehensive plan to engage kids, coaches and families through their power 5 experiences.
Three is that the head guy is legit opposite. I liked some of Fuente's qualities like integrity etc. However, in todays world is the head coach doesn't have a big time genuine extroverted personality he better have a right hand guy that has that quality. CBP has this in spades and it appears (honeymoon period acknowledged) that his staff has a similar personality and fit.
At a minimum, we haven't just done the same thing and expecting different results. This is a polar opposite approach in almost every way. I hope it materializes over time in a better product on the field and some staying power at the school.
I think back to Entourage where the main character's contract with his agency was up so he started looking around and everyone came with PowerPoints to show how they were better and the guy was like everyone seems so out of touch and Ari would never do that (of course Ari did and it backfired, but that's beside the point).
My point is I can see Fuente being through and precise on his sell to a guy, but missing the just talking to them. And if you're Khalil Herbert you want to know the plan in a detail fashion because he took his shot and made the NFL with it. But 16-17 year olds typically don't think like 20 year olds.
I don't think it's damning for this particular recruit but I think it's damning with respect to the rest of the in state misses. Not saying it's the same situation but you have to think there's more examples similar to this one with the in state guys
Agree 100% especially given how word travels and people talk. But we have zero insight into the circumstances of the trip other than that it didn't go well and he decided not to go back.
Yeah but we ARE message board posters, we are supposed to default to the worst case scenario!
I agree with ya on the in state stuff. For example. There's a player from Patrick Henry HS in Roanoke who has jumped to being a high 3 star by 247 and if Fu and co were still here. Their wouldn't even be a visit from him
Umm he visited VT when Fu was the coach- and the visit was botched like most were according to our recruiting ratings. How old he was when Fu was hired is irrelevant no?
The previous staff was competent enough to reach out to middle schoolers but not competent enough to make their unofficial visits worthwhile?
Or he showed up as a freshman on a visit during Fu's lame duck season when there was only negative energy around the program and decided it wasn't for him but new coaching staff breathed life into the program?
Maybe he showed up on campus unannounced as a middle schooler and got miffed when nobody in merryman knew who he was.
Maybe Fu and staff were trying to close on guys in the 22 class and also spent more time with the guys in the 23 and 24 classes than the 14 year olds I'm the 25 class. Could you imagine the reaction if the story came out that someone in the 22 class committed elsewhere bc the coaching staff was spending too much time with the class of 25 invitees during weekend visits?
Maybe an opposing fan was rude to them and nobody stepped in to stop it.
We have zero insight into anything that went wrong aside from the words "bad experience" and the statement they wouldn't have been back without the current coaching hitting LCA hard
It's not like VT was out there from the jump nurturing a relationship with a 9 year old and then Fu came in and cut the legs out from under it in a single underwhelming visit
Fu's recruiting speaks for itself. I believe the kid. Not back to back 50 plus rated classes coaching at VT. Sorry
Fu not mentioned once, you believe what you want to 🤷♂️
He does go to LCA, and I know it sounds crazy but that means Liberty will be a real competitor for his commitment.
Troof. The pressure to stay is strong. They have multiple former Liberty football players teaching at LCA and they definitely push the narrative that Liberty is a great education and the next logical step for any LCA player.
https://247sports.com/Player/Tyler-Aronson-46109945/
3 star QB from St Thomas Aquinas (big boy football school) in FL (seems like 247 needs to update their rankings as the composite is MUCH higher at an overall 90 rated 4 star)
He will be in the low to mid 90s when his 247 rating is updated. I wonder if there is a link since he is outside that 6 hour window type deal
Maybe someone Marve had started building a relationship with as a recruiter at FSU (I know he's defense, but maybe based on region assignments for coverage)? I mean, I doubt the coaches just stopped talking to whatever recruits they'd built relationships with. Or you could go really positive outlook and think maybe Marve had a really good relationship with the kid's coach and the coach called up Marve (before anyone else) and said he had a great player.
If they're a 4 star plus I don't care if they're from the moon tbh
Looks like he camped at Penn State in 2019.
class of 24, so hopefully we keep on him through this cycle and the next
Most all of our recruits got a bump in the last few weeks. Hammer was the only one I saw that dropped. Our average has gone up, but it's still low 85.
I haven't gotten a chance to look at our average position ranking recently. Hopefully, once work and home slow down I can run through that.