Source. The explanation below is partly Bill C's, partly my interpretation from years of reading his work and listening to his podcast(s).
For those who aren't college analytics nerds:
SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football [meaning it does not consider things like turnovers, penalties, etc]. It is not a rΓ©sumΓ© ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year.
Preseason projections are based on three factors.
- Returning production - how many players are returning, how many plays each one has been a part of, and how successful each play has been (Bill has often said that not all experience is good experience, so it's important to not reward teams/players for participating in unsuccessful plays).
- Recent recruiting - Bill says that this piece makes up about one-fifth of the projections formula.
- Recent history - I think this piece is particularly interesting. Per Bill:
Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle, but the projections are better with it than without.
Anyways, VT at 61....
Pry has his work cut out for him (not that we needed a fancy algorithm to tell us that)
Comments
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.
Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.