I know we're only three weeks removed from the BCS, but I've already put together a page to hopefully explain the CFP in the easiest way possible. Basically, I was trying to make a page I can send to my dad so he knows what I'm talking about. He watches all of the VT games that he can, but still refers to Florida State as "Florida".
I present it here in the hopes that I've figured everything out properly, and if not, the kind folks here can correct any errors or misunderstandings I have made.
Main post - http://cfarena.blogspot.com/2014/01/college-football-playoffs-explained....
Orange Bowl explained - http://cfarena.blogspot.com/2013/12/cfp-primer-orange-bowl.html
I'll also have some future posts on the blog with hypothetical playoff scenarios from the past four seasons. I needed to go a full three year cycle to show the differences with the semi-final rotations. I did 2010 for fun because that's the last NCAA game I have for Xbox, so I wanted to create some matchups for that game.
Comments
OMG...it's only been 3 weeks?!?! feels so much longer than that :/ It's going to be a looong off season I'm afraid.
Thanks bluehokie guy.
Nicely presented and thoroughly explained. Thanks for sharing! Now post a comment so I can give you the turkey leg you deserve.
Nice explanation. Even though I thought I knew all of that it was nice to have it all detailed out like that.
Also I have to say that if I was the ACC I would do everything in my power to not allow that Orange Bowl bid to go to Notre Dame instead of an ACC team. The ACC needs as much negotiating power as it can get to try and force ND into being a full member.
ND will never REPLACE an ACC team. they can only play AGAINST an ACC team...
Well no that's whats unclear I think. If an ACC team is in the playoff. Florida State this year for example. The Orange Bowl would then need another team to take the place of the ACC champion. The question is could Notre Dame be eligible as the replacement team.
i'm 99% sure the answer is no. The ND bowl agreement with the ACC is for all bowls BESIDES the Orange Bowl. We don't share any revenue from the Orange Bowl with ND, we OWN the TV rights to the Orange Bowl, and WE negotiated the tie-ins for the Orange Bowl (along with our TV partner, i'm sure). ND can play aginast the ACC twice in the Orange Bowl, the only other way they are in the Orange Bowl is if they are selected to play in the playoff game(s) there.
i'm leaving open that 1% because i don't have the contract(s) in front of me, but i'm sure they can't take our spot...even our 2nd spot.
I have to imagine that in most scenarios where Notre Dame was good enough to cause a debate over whether they should take the ACC spot in the Orange Bowl, they would either already be in the top 4 or high enough on the list to be the OB opponent.
Granted, we could have a year where there is 1 really good ACC team in the playoffs, and everyone else is barely ranked at 8-4 or worse, and ND is sitting with only 1 or 2 losses in the bottom half of the top ten...and that would force the debate.
Thanks all...that Orange Bowl explanation took some time too, which is why I did the strike out example version. There's no simple way to say who the ACC champ plays.
Good well thought out example. You might want to add a little more explanation to Step 4. It looks like you crossed off Georgia. Maybe have a listing of the games that impact the selection or deletion from the list and the teams that fill the spots after each step?
Playoff #1 v #4 - Notre Dame v Oregon
Playoff #2 v #3 - Alabama v Florida
Rose - Wisconsin v. Stanford
Sugar - Georgia v. Kansas State
I tweaked that step a little. I didn't want to go too far into the other games, because there could be debate on where some of the Big 12 or Pac-12 teams could go, and since those conferences don't impact the Orange Bowl, I wanted to keep it simple.
I also italicized the teams that were crossed off in that particular step, to hopefully make it stand out a bit.
I'm not sure this is true:
I thought i had read that if the Orange Bowl loses their ACC selection, even if it is a 2nd ACC team, the ACC is still guaranteed a spot in either the Peach or Fiesta.
How can someone find out for sure?
I knew there was some detail I had forgotten to check out.
I primarily used the Wikipedia page for "College Football Playoff" as my source. I also looked over this article from ESPN: http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8633324/acc-orange-bowl-f...
But I cannot seem to find the scenario of an ACC team being in the playoffs when the Orange Bowl is hosting.
Thanks for this. Admittedly I didn't know how the whole process was going to work. I just knew about the committee and no restrictions on teams from one conference.
maybe a simpler way of looking at all of this:
the committee will be given a list of 1 ACC, 1 SEC, 1 B1G, 1 Pac12, 1 Big12 team plus top 4, plus 1 of ND/other 5 conf champs/additional rep from top 5 confs to place in the 5 bowl games.
Top 4 will go into the 2 playoff bowls, and the other 6 (5 conf reps + 1 of ND/other 5 conf champs/additional rep from top 5 confs) will be "placed" by the committee with consideration going to tie-ins first. I don't believe ND or the other 5 conferences are guaranteed a spot, but would get one if they were top 4 and/or best available for that last bowl spot.
basically, for the top 5 leagues, making the playoff does NOT replace their bowl spot. it would always be in addition to it. that is how i read it when they first announced the bowl arrangements, but i'm sure they are still tweaking the details.
If the SEC had 2 teams in the playoff, i am pretty sure they are still guaranteed a spot in one of the other 3 bowls that year, giving them 3 teams in the 5 bowls. essentially, the playoff games don't count towards the conference "head count" as i understood it.
i could be wrong, but that is how i pieced it all together...
The way you phrase it makes it sound like ND could replace the "Group of 5", which it won't. The "Group of 5" is guaranteed one spot in the six bowls, regardless of what anyone else does.
But I think the biggest questions that haven't been answered involve scenarios when a conference has a team in the playoffs, and their normal bowl is part of the playoffs.
If the SEC and B1G have teams in the playoff, and the semis are Rose and Sugar, are the number two teams from those conferences automatically guaranteed to be in one of the other bowls? Now, it's highly likely that they will be ranked high enough to get in at-large on their own merits, but that's not them being guaranteed to get in.
Also, does the committee actually set the bowl matchups, or do they just give the list to the four non semi bowls and they can choose who they want from that list?
What will be interesting is every third year, when the Fiesta and Peach Bowls are the semi finals. Since no one gets displaced, the Cotton Bowl becomes the only at-large bowl, so they'll probably end up getting stuck with the "Group of 5" team in those years.
you are correct, i forgot the 6th (Cotton) Bowl...so yes, a conf champ from the group of 5 is the 6th guaranteed spot with the last 2 spots going to ND/Any at-large(s). but my point stands that i don't believe a top 5 conference loses a spot in one of the other FOUR (not 3 as i stated above) bowls because they put 1 or more teams in the playoff.
That point is correct. We already know 6 of the 12 teams in CFP bowls. I imagine that the other six would be the six highest ranked non-conference champions.
But, since the semis rotate...is a conference #2 guaranteed a spot if their normal home bowl is a semi-final? They'll probably get in on their own merits regardless.
In some ways, the CFP format is going back to the early BCS days, before they added the fifth game.
we're saying similar but different things, i think.
12 spots for 6 games.
4 spots go to 2 playoff games
5 spots (of the remaining 8) go to ACC, SEC, Big12, B1G, Pac12 regardless of who is already in the 4 playoff spots
1 spot goes to "Other 5" top champ
2 spots remain for ND or other at larges from any of the 10 leagues
there is no cap on the number of teams that can come from one conference unless you consider a conference having 4 playoff teams, their 1 guaranteed spot and grabbing both at large spots, then the cap would be 7 :)
so for the ACC, SEC, B1G, Big12 and Pac12, yes, they are guaranteed 1 spot, but if any of them make the playoff, then they are guaranteed 2 spots, and if and of them have 2 teams in the playoffs, they are guaranteed 3 spots. they will all have 1 spot OUTSIDE of the playoff guaranteed to them.
See, I don't think it's an automatic guarantee that a playoff conference would send two teams. If a conference only has one really good team that goes to the playoffs, but the rest are ranked down in the 20s or lower...AND the their home bowl is a semi-final....I don't think the conference is guaranteed a second bowl spot.
Or at the very least, I haven't seen the proper proof.
i read it in one of the early Orange Bowl articles. it specifically gave the example of an ACC team being in the playoff while the Orange Bowl hosted a semi-final, a 2nd ACC team would be placed in either the Peach, Cotton or Fiesta. i guess it could have been wrong or miswritten, but i assume if it's true for ACC, the same is true for the other 4 conferences. with 7 spots open after the playoff, there is plenty of room to ensure every league gets 1 of the 7 spots, so i don't think it's a reach by any means...
And my scenarios of how the playoffs might have looked the past three years have gone live:
http://cfarena.blogspot.com/2014/01/what-if-playoffs-were-around-past-th...
I don't go so far as to create the matchups of the non semi-final bowls, just because there's so many variables going on there.
I found this article from May 2013: http://thegazette.com/2013/05/24/hancock-breaks-down-college-football-pl...
And this quote about champions/alternates:
"If the champions of those five conferences cannot compete in their contracted bowl because it is hosting a semifinal, they automatically qualify for another available bowl (Cotton, Fiesta, Peach). However if a league champion earns a semifinal spot, only a previous arrangement would guarantee another league team (Big Ten at the Rose or Orange bowls) a major bowl slot."
Let's use our hypothetical situation where FSU is ACC Champ, Clemson is #2, and the Orange Bowl is a semifinal game. That quote makes it sound like Clemson would not get a CFP bowl spot just for being ACC #2...they would have to earn a at-large spot on their own merits.
Hope folks don't mind a late bump for this, but I thought people wouldn't mind a refresher as we kick off the first playoff season.