David Hale has a great twitter thread on ND/the ACC. It's a series of 20ish tweets, so I'm not going to embed everything.
TL;DR:
8 teams need to leave the ACC at once for the GoR to not matter. And it's unlikely that anything happens before the new playoff structure is finalized.
ON NOTRE DAME POSSIBLY LEAVING THE ACC
- ND probably isn't making a decision about joining a conference until the new playoff structure is finalized
- ND's ACC revenue was ~$10.8m in 2019-2020. For other schools, it was about ~$32.3m.
- There's a lot of unknowns, but based on public information, leaving the ACC in 2024 would cost ND somewhere between $55m-112m. This is about a third of what it would cost any other school (because ND makes about a third of the money that other schools make).
ON BREAKING THE CURRENT GRANT OF RIGHTS
When it comes to the ACC Grant of Rights these 2 tweets are telling:
Another aside: adding new teams or opening up the TV contract would *NOT* void the existing GoR. They are separate documents. If new teams joined the ACC, they'd have to sign the same GoR as everyone else. Same for departing teams - unless > 50% leave.— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 11, 2022
Really want to emphasize the second half of that first tweet:
The ACC owns the broadcast rights for all members until [2036]. The rumor mill has largely ignored how big an obstacle this really is -- and it's enormous
More highlights that come later in the thread:
- Hale exiting the GoR will cost $120m-$150m, plus an additional ~$300m for the school (not the ACC) to keep the rights.
- The fact that no one has yet challenged the GoR (and Hale believes that programs have been considering this for years) means no one has come up with a good way to challenge it yet. He also points out that Texas and OU are waiting for their GoR to expire before leaving, which also leads him to believe that lawyers are no confident about challenging a GoR in court.
In summary:
Long story short, there's not an obvious path for anyone to depart the ACC in the near term without a massive & expensive legal battle. In the longer term, the equation changes. We'll have playoff certainty, knowledge on NCAA/oversight. Revenue gaps ⬆️, GoR length ⬇️.— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 11, 2022
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