Hope everyone had an exciting week 0 I'm sitting comfortably at 1-1 on my bets and I'm back kinda early this week, about to head to my bachelor party for a long weekend in the sportsbook. A few of these lines are still fluctuating quite a bit (UNC is now a dog on some sites (lol), VT -8.5 some places) but this is current as of this morning (8/30) according to oddshark.
I'll take any and all feed back on format, for now I'm listing all ACC games that have odds and a 4-6 other matchups across the country that are intriguing.
ACC:
| Team | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|
| WVU | 51 | |
| Pitt | -7.5 | 51 |
| VT | -7.5 | 49.5 |
| ODU | 49.5 | |
| Temple | 51.5 | |
| Duke | -7 | 51.5 |
| Rutgers | 48 | |
| Boston College | -7 | 48 |
| NC State | -11.5 | 55 |
| E Carolina | 55 | |
| UNC | -1 | 56 |
| App St | 56 | |
| Louisville | -4.5 | 56.5 |
| Cuse | ||
| Florida St | 51.5 | |
| LSU | -3 | 51.5 |
| Clemson | -22 | 49 |
| Georgia Tech | 49 |
Other Games:
| Team | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|
| Penn St | -3.5 | 53.5 |
| Purdue | 53.5 | |
| Western Mich | 54.5 | |
| Michigan St | -22.5 | 54.5 |
| Cincy | 52 | |
| Arkansas | -6 | 52 |
| Oregon | 53 | |
| Georgia | -17 | 53 |
| Georgia St | 57 | |
| South Carolina | -12.5 | 57 |
| Notre Dame | 58.5 | |
| Ohio State | -17.5 | 58.5 |
My thoughts (which are just thoughts, do not take this as betting advice you'll probably lose money)
ACC wise:
- I don't think LSU is getting enough points
- I'll probably take VT too with my blind optimism bet
- App State will roll UNC if they play like week 0
Across the league:
- I know Ga St is no slouch but SCAR is only giving 12.5
- Cincy can beat Arkansas but +6 is a hard line
- Really like ND to cover 17.5
Forums:
DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.
Comments
I got UNC at +0.5. I know they looked bad in week zero but talent differential has to show up at one point or another. I thought Maye looked good as well. Pitt should easily cover at -7.5. I think Oregon covers as well.
What do we know about pitt though? Lost their best qb in years, best plAyer on defense transferred, lost a bunch of other senior contributors from last year. I'm more thinking WVU could blow their doors off looking to get a ranked win with their new flashy qb and OC
Slovis will be good for Pitt, the OC is my bigger question. I know nothing of WVU other than Daniels is their QB.
Fair enough I don't know enough about either other than the hype of daniels so I'm gonna stay away from this one this week. Go pitt for your sake!
App State is good, like real good...Chase Brice balled last year and UNC's leaky secondary could be a big issue...I think there's gonna be a lot of points in this one. I'm leaning App right now but this might just be a fun game to watch with nothing but the over on the line.
Don't trust Pitt enough to bet them though they should be the better team. Completely agree with Oregon covering though, not only are they going to be solid again but Georgia is notorious for slower starts even when they have elite talent which they have less of this year.
U of L only beats cuse by less than a TD, I think that's money right there, but we'll I dont bet
I know PSU starts slow, but 3.5? I know they lost their DC, but at 53.5 Purdue would need to get 24.
Purdue straight up!
What gives us confidence in Purdue in week 1?
Bourbon! What else gives confidence?
I'm betting Purdue strictly based on what their Aidan O'Connell did down the stretch last season against some solid competition. I'll ride with the QB until proven otherwise - which will probably be this week with my betting cold streak.
vs Tennessee (Music City Bowl): 26/47, 534, 5/3
vs Indiana: 26/31, 278, 4/0
vs Northwestern: 29/39, 423, 3/0
@ Ohio State: 40/52, 390, 4/0
vs Michigan State: 40/54, 536, 3/0
Purdue score more points against big ten teams than PSU last seasons.
Football outsiders had Purdue as a top 25 team last season, had top 25 offense, top 35 defense.
PSU was slight higher ranked but 69th in offense and 8th in defense and they lost their defensive coordinator. So nothing makes me think that PSU is going to be good.
David Bell, who is an elite elite receiving talent is gone. Karloftis is also gone off their line. PSU still has a significant talent advantage on both sides of the ball.
Take PSU at 3.5 and moneyline -180 before those lines change
I have $100 on us to cover. I am also taking NCSU to cover and I like the Cock Commanders to cover too.
This is the way that USCe needs to be addressed for now on
Cincy is depleted and Arky looks to be building based on last year I'll take 6, LSU covers 3 easily
LSU has to cope with Brian Kelly as well. That could be a hindrance.
how epic would it be for FSU to stun LSU and then collapse lol*
*I've given up hope that an ACC team will upset an SEC team. I used to go into each season hoping, in some senses expecting, ACC teams to shock the CFB world by winning games against teams from other leagues. I was disillusioned then. I have since seen the light.
Brian Kelly is a fucking dickwad and I hate him, however he's got a blank checkbook at a blue blood and a talented team. He should roll an FSU team that picked a starting QB yesterday and has Fuente 2.0 at the helm
Locksmith Rayo:
For the data nerds, Bill C just dropped his spready will SP+ picks for every game
Holy shit this is free? If I'm not mistaken the S&p+ is historically really good after a few weeks of football
Yea he drops an new google sheet every season. He'll add a new tab each week.
I've lost so much money not knowing this. I love SP+
Ours is down to 6?!?!
I never bet on VT because it's too greedy, but holy hell
I never bet on VT because the state of Virginia thinks I'll turn into a degenerate if I'm allowed to bet on VA sports
Purdue tried to take my money, but...
Pitt over and moneyline last night, as well as Penn State covering. Good start to the weekend.
If App State/UNC hits the over (55.5), I make money on the weekend. Unfortunately, our boys tanked my App St/VT ML parlay that I placed before the line shifted in App St's favor
EDIT: well, looks like I would have lost that bet anyway. Don't bet, kids.
EDIT(2): I got 10.6:1 odds on the following ML parlay
Pitt
Pedo St
Houston
JMU
SMU
USCe
Tulsa
Of course, Wyoming managed to Beamerball their way into a win over Tulsa 40-37 in 2OT. Only two offensive TDs. Scoop and score, blocked punt for 6, and 4x FG. Don't bet, kids.