For stat geeks, here are the advanced stats on the BC:
Full Tweet with other ACC box score stats:
ACC BOX SCORES:VT-BCDuke-NorthwesternWake-VandyLouisville-UCFIt appears SP+ was right about Boston College. (Duke, not so much.) pic.twitter.com/kHKuvcR2Ub— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 13, 2022
Instant analysis: VT offense is woeful. Defense is superb. VT relied too much on the run (especially on 1st down and the Red Zone), but I'm not sure they should pass more based on Wells' inefficiency. The offensive line was pretty good at preventing pressure on Wells, but is only gave the RBs 1.3 yards prior to contact. Unless Wells gets more efficient, VT may need to rely on King and Thomas a lot to break tackles this year to maintain any offensive success.
Comments
VT-ODU game for comparison:
VT's run blocking actually improved from week 1, where they only gave RBs 0.6 yards before contact.
I just fully expect this offense to be poop for the first two years. Fuente may or may not be an offensive Savant. (I think not, but who knows?) And if he is he must have been fired right before he finished the "break it down" portion of the rebuild before "building it back up". He really left the offense in way worse shape than the defense. I am genuinely, and pleasantly, surprised the defense has looked this good this quick. Props to Pry/Marve. They have really done wonders on side of the ball, so far. But they also have a considerable talent advantage there. Lets hope that Bowen and Co can get some bodies in and start to put a product that more closely resembles our defense out there. I think it'll take a couple years. Maybe they'll outdo themselves in the transfer portal. I'm not holding my breathe, though.
He recruited (and I use that term lightly) a line that was meant to be mobile. With a new system and run game approach we have a line that is both undersized and inexperienced. Unfortunately I would expect all of the players to be in training maintenance mode until the end of the season. That means no gains in the weight room - that means the best we can probably hope for is better coordination along the line and better leverage. Outside of that just let these guys eat and eat and eat and hope for the best.
So yes - this is going to take some time. I think the best case scenario for this season is that the passing game starts to really click and the n00bs at receiver become a threat, defenses have to account for it, and that should free up some space on the line to allow some better running lanes.
IIRC all of our starting OL guys are over 300 lbs. That's not tiny.
I retract my undersized comment. But inexperienced and young still holds here - 20 linemen on the roster if I counted correctly, and 16 of them are r-sophomores and below.
With Covid a RS So could be a 4th year player
And the starting five is not particularly inexperienced.
Other than that, the story was...
Yeah the o-line 2-deep averages 308 and around 6'4, pure size isn't the issue to me.
Who was Fuente's OC at Memphis? Didn't he go on to better success somewhere else?
Darrell Dickey. Now the OC at aTm
Saturday was not a ringing endorsement for Darrell.
Dickey is OC at TAMU and was Fuente's Memphis OC, but he's (a) not calling plays there (Jimbo calls his owns plays) and (b) basically running the same offense Jimbo ran in 2013 at FSU.
If you look at SP+ from Fuente's Memphis days, you'll see that Fuente never had an offense inside the top 50, despite having multiple top 30 defenses.
Barry Odom was the DC the first 3 years and now he's paid a mint at Arkansas.
Yeah I was just wondering if it was more his coordinators that led to Memphis being good those years and wasn't actually Fuente. The Dickey example is not great after this past weekend, but at least those guys are still employed at P5 programs, so I guess maybe there is something to my thought there.
75% run rate on first down. They weren't lying about trying to establish it.
I'd be interested to see if Penn State has been similar the last few years. They have been trying to be a running team since the Saquan days, but haven't been a very good one for the most part.
I know I'm kind of bitching about semantics, but I think it's a bit unfair to blame Wells for the failure of the passing game. We have nothing but warm bodies at Wide Receiver. Our highest rated 'active' WR is a .86 recruit (medium 3-star). King is the highest rated recruit on offense (excluding Gosnell who is out for the season, and Blue, who was a 2-star recruit but a 4-star as a transfer, but has been dealing with the murder of his father)
I haven't seen (m)any plays in the last two games where Wells missed or didn't see an open receiver (definitely doesn't mean it hasn't happened, but I haven't seen it). From my non-expert vantage point, it seems like our receivers are struggling to get open. That means Wells has to either time his passes perfectly (that's a lot to ask of most college QBs), and/or we have to work really hard to scheme guys open.
TL;DR - let's not blame all the passing game struggles on Wells.
that's true, and yes it's mostly semantics. The passing stats are under his name and the inefficiencies are definitely due in (large) part to the lack of viable receivers. He is better than his current numbers but his Marshall stats were somewhat mixed with solid completion percentage but also high interceptions and average TD rate. Worth noting that his completion percentage at Marshall for 2021 was 65% and QBR was 54.5, which is why I thought if he could get his Ints down, he'd be an ACC-caliber QB. Based on two games, his completion percentage is 59.7% and QBR rates a dismal 38.7, good for 11th in the conference. (Side Note: B. Armstrong has a completion percentage of 52.3% and is currently 13th in league for QBR with 35.0, yikes UVA!)
This is a complete tangent, but:
Seeing Armstrong play like this and Syracuse suddenly light it up on offense makes me think it wasn't Armstrong, but the OC Anae behind all of the offense at UVA the last few years.
EDIT for spelling
UVA's line is also hot dog shit allowing 6 sacks already to RIchmond and Illinois, ranked 120th nationally in sacks allowed only barely above BC
James Gayle must be frothing at the mouth with this stats
Does not bode well for their best player to be at the receiving end of all these hits and/or hits related to him having to bail and run for it. Could be another instance of "Will their QB even be healthy to play against VT"
I credit the man for sticking with his school when many others would have bailed.
But, his stock was decently good last year and is plummeting now. He should have transferred and balled somewhere good that just needed a QB.
I see both of your comments and offer my O&M colored spin on it based on a wholly too small data set to actually come to conclusions (but this is a football board, not a scientific study so gut feel it is):
- game one, under pressure to impress for a new regime with roster shortcomings well documented, our new gunslinger did just that and pressed too much resulting lots of turnovers and missed opportunities.
- game one an unestablished receiver corps (outside maybe Caleb) struggled to mesh with a pressing passer.
- dismal result
- game 2 it looked (at least to me) like wells was on a VERY short leash. You could almost see him wanting to pull the trigger but always went with the conservative play, until later in the 3rd.
- game 2 the receivers seemed to settle in (make some blocks too which was nice to see) and wells was able to spread it around over the night with receivers making some crucial plays (and absolutely missing some opportunities).
- good result, we're trending through the ceiling
Based on these copious amounts of data gathered while slightly intoxicated I can only include that it's going to be better as wells realizes that the conservative play is bolstered by his d and as he develops trust in the hands downfield.
I think the offense has potential to work some things out. Wells has limitations but is capable, and hopefully we get some additional contributions from some players that are currently injured or limited for whatever reason (Thomas, Blue, Smith). I also think that Blumrick could make some big plays for us down the road. The O-line for whatever reason doesn't appear to be off to the best start, but the starters have experience and if we stay healthy their play should improve. Our TE's also appear solid on paper and that group should be able to step up.
I'm not sure we can keep up this pace on defense, but we'll ride it till it bucks. I'm hopeful that Saturday will provide an opportunity to work on some things and get some meaningful experience before the meat of our schedule hits. Continue to improve and gel. Work on the things that are fixable, scheme against the things that aren't.
If we can get Wells to manage the game instead of gunslinging, like Ryan Willis, I can put some confidence back into this team. BC was a start, but we had so many 3 and outs in the game. I'm glad the team answered the BC touchdown. Need to build on that.