I know Eshiben hasn't bene on as much as of late...
And there was another person sitting for their certification wasn't there?
Anyway, here's a thread for Ian.
Buccaneers already making provisions.
And ECU (shocker) is going to be playing at a new location Saturday.
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We're going to try tailgating in the Jackson parking deck for the UNC game this weekend since the forecast is looking rough. I hope its just like the 2016 game!
Just realised this is happening could it be a repeat beat down?
Not with our current run-blocking lol
Also I just looked at the old stats and there were 10 fumbles that game!
Yea hurricane is bad for us
Ooooh...the missus and I were thinking about not coming down for the game because of the weather but now that you bring up the hurricane beat down...we might have to go!
One of the funnest, oddest games/tailgates I've ever been to or apart of.
Definitely didn't "tailgate" for it as such, we found a bar and drank until game time. But the game itself in the stands was an incredible experience.
That game was my first ever Tech game that I went to. Such a fun game haha. Seats got better as the game went on.
Our group did the same-closer and closer as the game went on. In the third quarter we were joined by some NC State fans who had been at the Notre Dame-NC State in nearby Raleigh (where they had rain twice as bad as it was in Durham). We asked them why they came to this game after being already soaked from the other ... they said they just came to watch UNC lose!
The hurricane game was the first VT game I took my wife too...she got a couple of good shots of me slapping hands with the players on the visitors sideline after the game. Honestly my favorite VT game I've been to.
via GIPHY
i hope the signal reaches him, just one comment in the last 19 months here
eshiben we missss youuuuuuu
Damn Fuente killed his love for weather
He absolutely broke my spirit all things VT football. 5 years ago I wouldn't have missed a VT home game let alone not even watched it. The times they have changed
Glad to have you back
I miss his gameday forecasts. Damned sure could've used it Thursday. Once that wind picked up I was freezing my ass off in shorts and a hoodie up in 509.
LOL I was in shorts and a t-shirt in 504.
After dark in the fall in the NRV will get after ya.
Clearly just need another asspocket full of whiskey
Truer words were never spoken.
Life gets after us all, man. Glad to see you back on the boards.
I wish the real world, would just stop hasslin' me
And you, and you, and me
Don't know how to make ponchos, but I feel I could make them easily and sell them for profit on Saturday 🤔
contractor trash bags and a knife, market them as custom tailored.
Definitely going to be rainy.
Looks like both models have the remanence of the eye over Georgia at kick off, Euro weaker over Atlanta and GFS still holding a good amount of wind west of Brunswick. If it takes the euro's track inland I don't even see the wind being strong enough to even factor into game play, GFS definitely will cause it just stalls in central Georgia for the rest of the night (I'm not a meteorologist but in my lifetime of living on the coast they don't usually stall that long that far inland.)Looking like both models are zeroing in on Cape Coral as the landing point,
both still with a slight weakening before landfall.Looks like it did the hop east and strengthened, so most of what I said above is moot at this point probably looking for GA/SC reentry and this thing looks to stay pretty strong across florida.
I remember seeing the spaghetti chart with all the different model outputs. The National Hurricane Center isn't showing that chart (if it ever did). Anybody know where to find that?
one model
another link
https://www.wunderground.com/article/storms/hurricane/news/2022-09-26-hurricane-ian-map-tracker-spaghetti-models
This pretty much compiles everything. There should be a few spaghetti models to choose from.
Track the Tropics
I know you've been given options already but I'll plug Mike's Weather Page. Cause A he's hilarious and B he's very good at his job.... his webpage might be helpful for spaghetti models: https://spaghettimodels.com/
Mike's one of our family faves. Good to see some common interest here. He does a great podcast on this nightly when the shit goes down (like now).
It's a hobby for him and he has no training or education in the field. He just posts others work.
Yeah sorry for the confusion his job isn't a meteorologist. He's a gatherer and condenser of information that's frequently hard for the common person to understand, its certainly his job as that's how he makes a living.
FYI from a 1255 pm update from local Richmond met
https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__wxrisk.com_midday-2...
Sitting here in NE Florida waiting. Was supposed to leave for Disney Thursday night for youngest birthday trip. Now just waiting to see what day we can go now. Parks should be mostly empty this weekend at least.
I have some friends in the Tampa area. They have pretty much all boarded up their houses and gone further inland to other friends or families houses.
Have a friend who just moved to Clearwater(not right on the water) in spring. Earlier(last weekend) decided to stay put IN THEIR MOBILE HOME!! Tried to tell them not to (and mutual friend up here invited 'em to stay here in VA) but too stubborn. Last time Tampa got direct hit was just over 100 years ago, so many in that area had false sense of security. (Another friend lives in Lauderdale and lived through Andrew in 1992 so they know better; they said they evac for anything over a cat one). The Clearwater friend's mobile home sits right at the edge of evac zone C (the mandatory evac for Pinellas County is A,B,C and ALL MOBILE HOME PARKS). Hoping they stay safe.
Reporting from Central Florida.
Most Publix have had their shelves emptied of alcohol.
I recommend not driving on I-4 West.
Also, as we all know, buy as much water as possible so that if the power goes out, your (non-powered) domestic water service source, can be supplemented. /s
Bonus -- Many neighbors deciding now is the perfect time to cut branches off of the large oak trees so that they do not damage their homes. The debris piles (potential projectiles) that sit along the edge of the streets pose absolutely no risk to your or your neighbors' homes. /s
Same scenario here. In C.Fla as well. Piles of branches/shrubbery in front of multiple houses. Bulk pickup usually is Weds but obviously is likely not to happen tomorrow.
Yay for flying debris!!!
Not sure Florida's situation but Charleston floods pretty frequently, a bad storm surge and they're shutting off the water or immediately noting that its contaminated.
Milk is always my favorite one - so you're power is going out and you're stocking up on milk...with no way to keep it cold?
Funny enough with the surge of "never seen a hurricane" people here I've seen countless posts about people asking if they need to evacuate SC and what to stock up on here for Ian.
It is likely that the substantial increase in milk purchases is directly correlated with the substantial increase in toilet paper purchases. Lactose-intolerant or not; a hurricane's-a-comin, better chug tons of milk.
This is not that difficult.
I have a chest freezer that I've converted to cold refrigerator. When threatened, drop temp to just over freezing (34F).
Fill up as much as possible with things that need to stay cold, ice blocks at the bottom in clean milk jugs.
2 kegs of beer. frozen bacon, hamburger, etc. All that cold mass will help.
Put milk into double walled stainless steel sanitized growlers. It'll keep the milk from freezing but also from getting warm. Also, if you don't open them, they will stay very long from becoming cheese.
Have an inventory on paper so you don't have to open it to see what's in it. Open it, get it out, and close it fast as possible. Mark it off on inventory.
Don't put it back. Have another insulated container or towel to wrap it in and put that into a small cooler.
Don't open the cooler to pour beer from the taps.
When opened, you don't loose much cold as it opens from the top.
Mass of cold beer, frozen meats and ice block, very much slow the rate at which it warms without power. With management, you can have cold milk/cream for your The Dude White Russians and coffee for a week, easy.
two houses down hired a tree service to take down a giant laurel oak yesterday...they dropped it right through the power lines. So we have brand new lines at least for now. However they DIDN'T take out the huge tree right next to it most likely to fall but without its buddy buffering the wind from the NE, it is now WAY more vulnerable than it was before.
I have 2 generators and propane and gas...
A hurricane is bearing down and
And people wonder why "Florida Man" is a thing 😂😂
🤔🧐
You tellin' me you wouldn't buy a bit of booze before a huge storm rolls into town??
I stopped by Publix on my way home from work today to observe the panic. People literally leave with carts full of junk food in response to the hurricane. Without even realizing it until after I left, I, myself, left with brownies and beer. Amazing ...
First thing I grabbed on the way home yesterday was 2 bottles of bourbon for me and a big ass bottle of Baileys for my wife. Didn't know where we would end up (home as it turns out), but we knew we'd have "supplies" on top of supplies.
OK
tl/dr: though I'm not a meteorologist I've been trying to monitor the storm in part for my day job, in part as an enjoyer of general weather things.
Bottom line up front: between Tampa and Fort Myers can expect a major hurricane landfall (cat 3 or 4)
The tricky track forecasting of this storm has been due to a few environmental factors, recently shifting the storm south then slowing down significantly over the Florida peninsula. In addition to storm surge which will inundate the Tampa area, significant rainfall amounts are likely to be seen.
Not to end there, but it is possible that Ian then crosses over into the Atlantic, potentially gaining some strength back before making a second landfall somewhere between Georgia and southern North Carolina.
While the heart of the storm may not be over Chapel Hill until Sunday, there may be rain, wind, and significant effects on saturday from the outer bands of the storm.
So the models had been pushing it south. I did a write up a while ago about how wind shear rips apart the vertical winds needed to feed a hurricane. There was a ton of shear due to a front north of it that steered it downwards. Then the storm did a major reintensifaction right before landfall meaning the doom train basically slammed on the accelerator. The eye on this thing was redonculous would highly recommend you look up the hurricane hunters recount of their experience flying through this is one of the most intense storms to make landfall in US history
Great to have you back man! Understand life gets in the way and I hope you don't feel the need to do game week forecasts. Your insight for these significant national events is always awesome!
Yeah the above avg sea temps, jet dynamics, and Gulf hydropgraphics seem to have juiced up that ERC after Ian crossed Cuba rather quickly. It's wild the last 5ish years all the Cat 4/5s that have hit down there, but no surprise with water temps what they are.
Yeah the accounts by the hurricane hunters, turbulence, and quick altitude changes in flight were eye opening too
I'll echo everyone else, so nice to see ya back around! Not just for the weather talk, we miss ya in the soccer discussion threads too 😌
Im always creepin
But really congrats on top of the table. Big arteta fan, love seeing him succeed
Was supposed to fishing off the Keys tomorrow. I am now thinking it was a good decision to pay the extra $$ to defer the lodging and boating for another month.
You know
This is kind of an annual tradition isn't it? In a way, these threads are kind of a TKP football season staple.
Hopefully the hurricane FAM threads are too after a rainblown beatdown of unc
perhaps also Miami 🤔
Major hurricanes every year isn't something I'm getting used to... Neither is having them in late September and October.
Of note, as a general rule for hurricanes, the stronger and more organized the storm, the more it will bear to the East. So that fading off to the west in a kind of s-curve is the storm weakening. If it gets stronger in the 24 hours before landfall or if it manages to cross straight over Florida and into the Atlantic, that "wobble" may stay further east as it heads north. Towards central or eastern NC.
At least that's how I understand it.
And its now almost Cat 5. Stay safe everyone.
One of my brothers and his family are down in the Tampa area. They evacuated to Stuart, FL on the east coast. Hope they and everyone in the area stay safe.
Only one thing can stop this hurricane...
A horse with lightning bolts that fly out of its nostrils when it sneezes?
What Hurricane? You call THAT a hurricane?
You don't think eshiben is one of those whacko weather guys on TV right now getting blown around, do ya?
We are absolutely getting pounded on the Space Coast at the moment. Can't imagine what the West Coast is going through right now.
So many of us from Florida.
Also in central Florida and so far so good. It's been raining lightly since about noon and there's a breeze outside. Supposed to get the worst of it overnight tonight (they always seem to hit late at night). Forecast is still calling for it to pass through here as either a 1 or a TS, hope that's the case. Going to dump an S-load of rain on us though.
Time to test that vaunted drainage system and it's upkeep.
I find Ryan Maue on Twitter @RyanMaue a good weather resource
The tide chart for Ft Myers is nuts.
Ft Myers:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8725520
Tampa St. Pete:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8726520
This is wild. The videos of empty tampa bay were crazy.
I always forget how small the florida gulf tides are.
Yeah, it's crazy they are so tight, then over west there's only 1 high and 1 low a day. This is the transition zone to that.
Ian sucked all that water out, and that upper half pushed everything out offshore. The Ft. Myers one was crazy with it dropping for basically 28 hours then rushing in at around a foot an hour.
If there tides are that small normally, no wonder people from Florida can occasionally get caught and die when walking on the beaches at the Bay of Fundy (50' tide).
Anyone: Know where you are and be aware of your surroundings.
Florida Man: That tide sure came at me fast!
This is the consolidation site I've been using to keep an eye on it by the way: https://www.wunderground.com/article/storms/hurricane/news/2022-09-26-hu...
Looks like Ian is becoming pretty disorganized. I saw max sustained as high as 157 this morning and the 9PM update has it down to 105. We'll see if it has time to reorganize once it's in the Atlantic. The spaghetti models have it making second landfall all over the coast from Georgia to NC.
Hope our friends in SW Florida are safe. I've seen some wild videos from today.
I'm late to this thread, but my favorite related sites are the noaa hurricane site, and spaghettimodels.com.
Windy.com and windfinder.com are also interesting depictions of the current winds.
My go-to is Tropical Tidbits
Also a good one.
Levi is the man. He does a great job (has for a LONG time).
Soo we thinking extremely wet field, light to medium rain when our game gets underway? Could bode well for us
Looks like the 11AM update made this an expected H1 for re entry right on top of my house. Was expecting a more south re-entry if this hits with the tide Charleston is gonna have some major flooding. It floods here when I pee in my backyard.
A. Stay safe. Luckily it isn't a full moon. While the surge will be strong, i don't think it's going to have long to build up...it's just going to swing in and blow through. (Hopefully.)
B. Don't pee in your back yard at high tide.
Love the analogy- is that 'nightly'? once a week? every so often? LOL
just got back from checking out our friend's flooded ground floor apt not much damage but will take a while to dry...once the water recedes
stay safe and stay dry
How y'all do down in St. Augustine. We actually just lost power this morning, not sure it's direct storm related.
Well it shifted a bit north of us, still flooding but not that bad. I will say the winds are about 3x stronger than I expected and we're having some pretty wild gusts recorded on Folly Beach and I've had a few sizeable branches bounce off the house. Pawleys Island, and south Horry county are gonna get it worse than Charleston.
Starting to calm down here now. Still gusty but the rains is gone. Lost a tree, power was on and off until now doesn't seem wide spread but definitely sections of CHS that have lost power for a good amount of time.
Final Edit: Finally clearing up here last gusty winds are blowing through, sun's peaking out. I've been through quite a few hurricanes and TS this was one of the more destructive Cat 1s I remember. My yard lost 2 trees have a couple neighbors with trees through the house.
Hey fam sorry real life job has made this jank a lot harder. I am alive and no I'm not in Florida haha lots of big life changes recently. I'll try to be better on the next major weather event my B. The quick summary of this system, be prepared for it to dump a butt load of rain in the Shenandoah valley starting tomorrow. Looks like it's gonna get lodged in by a ridge in western Carolina and just dump rain for a few days. I expect the game to be soaked this weekend! Really appreciate all the love and I'll be available tomorrow for questions! Weekly weather reports might be done though haha that shits a lot of work and those in my fantasy league now know the sass has been turned into a weekly fantasy report
Well, the Shen Valley needs the rain.
Careful what you wish for. A day long soaking is one thing. A deluge with an inch an hour, especially after extremely dry conditions, causes flash floods and runs off more than it spread out. Pair that with winds (in dry conditions) and trees will be weaker causing more issues than just running water.
Happy to see you back here brother!
Saw this yesterday from somewhere in SW Florida. Yikes!
I'm not taking pictures, I'm running/wading the fuck outta there.
My brother would try to wrestle it and keep it as a pet.
He will love it and squeeze it and call it George...
It will be like a brother to his two dogs (Boxers) and at the same time be an early warning/booby trap to intruders in the house.
Now it makes me want to ask him how he would set that up because he won't hesitate to do that.
I feel like your brother and I would get along well.
Everyone else: Ahhhh. Snake!
Me: Hold my beer. I'm going to pick it up!
VA and NC schools are already prepping. I saw several schools in Southern VA are closing early and my best friend who lives in NC said her son's school was closed today.
School buses can't run once the winds reach a certain a speed. In SC it's sustained winds above 30 MPH.
I also think flooding is a concern...
Little bit of A little bit of B, highly recommend y'all get onto radar.weather.gov and watch the storm lose its organization as it passes onto land. Loop will prolly be up for another 15ish minutes I'd guess
Cool to see, thanks for the suggestion