This is really a fascinating matchup:
- VT is the 119th best offense, going up against the 113th best defense (per SP+)
- UNC is the 10th best offense, going up against the 23rd best defense (again, per SP+)
- SP+ also says UNC is the 10th best special teams unit, while VT is the 29th best
Vegas has UNC winning by 9, with the over/under at 51.5. SP+ says UNC wins 31-25. I'm tempted to take VT to win outright at +260.
What do y'all think?
Forums:
DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.
Comments
Our ability to run and the impending weather have me worried that this will be ugly for the Hokies. However, if we can find a spark on the offensive side of the ball this is one of the more winnable October games we have IMO.
If we can prevent penalties and actually win in the trenches, I believe we'll see that spark you speak of. Those are both pretty big 'IF's, but that's the power of positive thinking...
You have to believe there is something we can do to improve run blocking.
I want to believe, but Saturday indicates otherwise.
We win they lose
Hoping for 2016...that's about all I got. Not expecting anything out of the offense. Expecting the defense to hold their own for a while. Looking like the rain may move out before kickoff, so that might not be a huge factor out of the field being saturated.
Hammer UNC -9. 37-10 or something along those lines
I know their defense is culturally and physically soft, but they've gotta be better than and have more talent than BC/Wofford/WVU. We're one dimensional as it is and the weather is going to discount that dimension
Tech to win outright against a team that can score a billion points?
How many times have you bet on the Generals?
For those odds? I think yes.
Never, because I've never heard of the generals. Is that the DC baseball team that became the Expo's at one point?
the Generals are like 0-278 against the Globe Trotters
According to Wikipedia its much worse than that.
yeah I saw that...I looked it up after I made my comment but didn't feel like making the edit. The Generals have won like 3 (or 6, depending who you talk to) times and have lost thousands of times. You can lose a ton of money betting on the Generals but once in a lifetime you can win a lot on them.
This was an all time great reference well done.
I THOUGHT THE GENERALS WERE DUE
"He's spinning the ball on his finger! Just take it! Take the ball!"
I probably wouldn't touch ML, but I do like us +9 in a bounce back spot. We had extra time off to rest, we historically play well against UNC, and the weather figures to slow their offense down a little bit whereas ours is already non-existent so that should be a net positive.
I'm just having a hard time imagining us winning this game, but could definitely see us keeping it close.
I don't think VT wins this game. I agree that this is probably the best opportunity in the month of October to notch a win (depending on how much worse Miami gets) but I think our one-dimensional offense is too easy to stop. In the battle of "will UNC Defense fix VT Offense or will VT Offense fix UNC Defense" my recency bias has me convinced that it has to be the latter. I expect the conditions to be sloppy at best. There's probably going to be lots of slipping and sliding around on a saturated field and I think that is only going to benefit the more talented team. I think we'll keep it relatively close for a half but I expect UNC to run away with it in the 4th Q. UNC 40-21
Keys to winning will be stopping Omarion Hampton and Drake Maye on the ground. Obviously going to be a lot of run game going on in this one, and I wouldn't doubt UNC using some option or designed runs for Maye.
Hampton has been underused so far, probably because of Mack's reluctance to make a true freshman a featured back in this offense, but I saw him play in high school and he's an absolute bruiser. Basically Javonte Williams all over again. If he gets 20 carries it will be tough to stop.
As far as the Hokies' offense, we need King, Holston, and *hopefully* Thomas to be effective. Thank goodness we won't be running 10+ jet sweeps to James Mitchell and Tre Turner.
If its rainy and soupy out I would much rather play Blumrick or Tahj at QB. Play just like we did against them in 2016. If we don't do that, then I don't think we stand much of a chance. Could easily see it being like 24 to 3.
Didn't I see that Tahj is transferring out? Or did?Edit: I don't know what I saw that made me think that. Did he put his name in the portal and take it out again? Regardless, Bullock is/was listed at 4th on the depth chart, so I don't know about starting him in this game ahead of three (or four if you count Blumrick) other candidates.
Wrong Tahj - it was Tahj Gary that transferred.
My point was more if it was going to be bad enough out that passing wasnt really an option, you might as well put in a battering ram QB who can run.
My prediction is Rain, Wind, and the Under. (So of course we are going to win 23-20. Mac is going to go for 2 as time expires but the wind is going to blow the ball to the Hokies and who will run take it back for a 2 pt conversion instead.
Even with turf instead of grass this is going to be a slop fest. I hope the training staff is bringing at least 4 different sets of cleats for the players.
Unfortunately, I don't see anything but WVU part deux here. I don't feel like we will keep this close.
^
My prediction?
UNC 38
VT 27
I just don't have a lot of belief in our offense to keep up. And after last week, a good offense can put up points on our defense if they take advantage of their athletes and can move our DTs on running plays. UNC's OC can get a bit pass happy, which could keep this interesting for a little while. But, if Dorian Strong is out then we could be in big trouble.
The best hope is that UNC's defense is softer than our OL is bad at run blocking and the rain comes down hard so we don't have to worry about them passing.
My Prediction:
My exact reaction throughout all of WVU last week.
The weather is actually starting to shift some and looks like 60% chance of rain, but nothing too crazy and only 10 mph winds. I don't think this will end up anything like 2016 weather-wise.
UNC will be able to throw the ball and run a balanced offense.
With weather a non-factor, not sure how we win this game unless our staff makes a blocking scheme change and hits the nail on the head to get the run game going. Had some extra days to prepare and try and make a plan for the run game. I think it is a long shot that we see enough improvement there, but it is possible. I think if we play this game 5 times, VT wins once.
It's gonna be wet
There he is!
I've been kicking the shit out of UNC in NCAA 2014, so I expect that to continue.
I've been using a combo of the 4-2-5, and 3-3-5 defense to generate QB hits. Doing a lot of Cover 2, Cover 3. I'll send an extra rusher on 3rd and long to get the ball out of the QB's hands.
As far as the IRL game, I assume we will win until the game is over.
Seems like the storm will be beyond Chapel Hill by 3pm Saturday. It might be a soggy field but the weather conditions seem favorable.
I think I'll just catch this game on the radio but hope for the best.
Anyone who picks VT to win this weekend (rain or not)... I'd like to have what they are smoking/drinking.
They very well could win because crazier things have happened, but no one should be thinking VT is the smart pick.
I'm making hurricanes if anybody wants one
Prediction for Saturday's game:
ew win 13-3 in an ugly rain soaked game
I predict at least one bottle of bourbon will be started and finished at my house during the game.
Are betting on the over or the under? /s sorta
honestly the under... i'll be the only one enjoying it
local Octoberfest celebration had to get canned because of the leftovers from Ian. The local brewery ended up with a lot of beer on hand that had no home, so I switched for festbier for this afternoon. Prosit!
I'm not worried about predictions anymore this season. This is a far bigger rebuild in a winnable division, than even the 4-8 predictors had.
I expect our defense to be on the field for 50 mins, and keep us close until they have no gas left, and UNC blows it wide open in the 4th quarter.
So, a repeat of WVU.
And this will likely happen the rest of the year. I'm not down and out on the program. I still think we sneak in a few more wins. But it'll be easier for my mental health to go into games not worried about winning and losing.
with the weather, being able to run the ball is imperative. not good for us. so, i just hope we keep the scoring streak alive.
against UNC's defense, if we can't score even 3 points I would be surprised. Will Ross will help us keep the streak alive.
Man, I remember the days of "hopefully we can keep the 10 win season streak alive" and then there was the days of "hopefully we can keep the uva win streak alive" and then it went to "hopefully we can keep the bowl streak alive" and now were down to "hopefully we'll keep the scoring streak alive." My how things have changed.
Keep the scoring streak alive?! Do you know how bad unc's defense is?!
I have heard/read how bad it is, i have not seen them play this year. i have, however, watched us try to run the ball. if they know we have to run it because of weather, i do not see us scoring many points...at all. of course i would be happy to be wrong, and would love to see us run all over them!
Unfortunately, I see this one playing out very much like WVU.
Good defensive effort in the first half to keep things close, but they get gassed in the second half due to Offense being unable to keep them off the field.
I wouldn't touch the odds on this without definitely knowing the weather.
If it is wet and nasty, I would take UNC plus the points all day. I know their D is bad, but our OL could not move Wofford. If we can't throw effectively, it could be ugly.
UNC 31 - VT 17
Going back to the start of the Fu era, it seems like (I'd have to look back) we're always an underdog against UNC and yet always find a way to pull it off, minus the covid year we had like half the team out.
We've got the talent to win. But we just look so sloppy and undisciplined out there right now. Additionally we've been pretty poor at second half adjustments.
This game is very winnable, and I think it will be close at half, but I just think UNC is going to come out in the second half and pull away a bit and win. Something like 38-28.
Not really a prediction, but if we can't score on a UNC defense that plays like someone without their controller plugged in, then we'll have a clear picture of just how big a hole we're in on that side of the ball.
This made me chuckle. But sadly, it also accurately describes our running game.
If the game's played in slop
W = all of us watching from home
I always enjoy watching two teams play in a downpour while dry and drinking beer on my couch.
Being in stands in rain is OK IF it's fairly warm..but at 60 degrees plus winds not so much
Fuck UNC.
It's looking more and more likely weather won't be much of a factor in this game. Ian is moving pretty fast and should be out of the area well before kickoff. I'm guessing we keep it close for 3 quarters and UNC pulls away in the 4th after our defense gets gassed. 48- 33.
I know UNC's defense is bad, but our offense is even worse. Combine that (and it was stated above) with the impending inclement weather forcing things to the ground game I do think UNC has a major advantage.
something like: 28/35 - 10/13
UNC by 24 or 27 unless the VT offense displays a pulse (paging Tyler Bowen) TOP UNC 39 VT 21. Time before the average Tech fan switches channels 37 minutes.
The bar for improvement gets set lower and lower along with my expectations.
Prediction? I'm gonna be listening to A perfect circle by halftime 😂
Judith came on the station this morning on the way to school, and my 11 year old got really into it.
Oh hell yeah 🤘
Got her a new guitar for her birthday, I just need her to start listening to the good music. It's all Pierce the Veil with these younger kids.
This is such a great song
Mer De Noms is a really great album as a whole. And Thirteenth step as well. Just full of bangers on both albums🤘
Hokies will have to rely on a strong run game performance if they want to have a chance.
Malachi Thomas?
Doubt it. Not the kind of field you want to bring someone back from an ankle injury.
I think it will take a lot of slop and chaos for VT to win this game. I think the chances for a lot slop and chaos are super high. I don't think VT wins, but I do think the chances of winning are better than the odds.
The SZD free show talked about our game. The O/U for VT is 20.5. They joked how laughably low that was against this UNC defense and also agreed they'd take the under. I think Alex threw in if VT scores 30 then Chizik should be fired by Sunday. So yea... I'd take UNC -9.
Weather could.make it weird though.
Yea, that bit was the inspiration for this thread.
76-0 Hokies
Because...'Merica!
I may have missed then by a little.
Here's how we win. We go see Doc Brown and get the flux capacitor. We send JC Price back to Fall of 2020 and we tell Hendon Hooker to hang on and that good things are happening and it's all going to change for 2022 and he should be the starter. This way he won't be putting up Heisman numbers as a Volunteer.
Just saying, if we have a flux capacitor, why don't we just go steal a young Beamer and Foster from 1999 and bring them as Beamers replacement in 2016. We'll return them at some point.
At the least go back to '99 and make sure Peter Warrick remains in jail so we win the Natty that year!
And while we're at it, get the replay official for the Michigan Sugar Bowl a new pair of glasses. (Danny Coale caught that ball!)
Then we can go to the future (prob in the 2100s) and watch the Hokies beat Wisconsin in their inaugural matchup!
see this going similar to WVU. Defense will keep us in the game for a bit but the offense wont' be able to sustain drives and score enough points. We are yet to break 30. Didn't even do that against Wofford. We'll need 30 to win this one.
the score will make it look like more of blowout than it really is for most of the game.
The next 4 games are going to be painful.
Its a matter of how long we are able to keep these games close, and not a matter of if we will win. Against UNC, I think we can keep it close for a decent portion of the first half before we get smoked in the 2nd. They are probably a better team than WVU, and we were physically outclassed by the Mountaineers.
although I generally agree with you, and on paper we should be losing each of the next 4 games, I still think that we'll steal one win from these next 4 (mostly because the ACC is straight hot garbage) and it's going to be either UNC or Miami IMO. I think UNC will probably smoke us but I also have this glimmer of hope that UNC's coaches will somehow bungle this so badly that we manage to win a squeaker that we really shouldn't have any business winning.
Unfortunately, we are one of the biggest reasons why the ACC is looked at being as shitty as they are. The ACC might be bad, but we're one of the 3 worst of the entire bunch, and legitimately one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country. Which shouldn't at all be surprising when this is the exact level we've been recruiting for the last 2 or 3 years under Fuente.
oh, I know. But the ACC is so bad that even a team that is better on paper can (and likely will) lose to a lesser team. It's the ACC way, after all. I don't think we should win against any of the teams we play in October. I'd predict a loss in each game individually. But based on #GOACC, historically, we're bound to win at least one game we shouldn't. Granted, I don't think we'll win that game so much as our opponent will lose it. But give me a 1-in-4 shot at stealing a game and I'll take it. Purely because it's the ACC. If we were in the PAC, B1G, SEC, BIGXII, SunBelt, or MAC I'd say there's no chance. But in the ACC, anything is possible.
Miami - MTSU anyone?
After UNC each team we face, their strength is going at our weakness. If we don't steal this one, don't expect to compete until Liberty
I think Liberty is going to smoke us. Liberty is probably a better team than at least half of the Coastal. I think, right now, the power rankings of teams in the state of Virginia goes something like this: JMU>Liberty>VT>UVA>ODU>Richmond
Miami is a mess right now too. If we don't get UNC (which, I don't expect us to) I still think we've got an outside shot at Miami. I want to be clear here: I DO NOT think we should win any of these games. But we're a bad team playing against a bunch of other bad teams and bad teams find ways to lose to other bad teams. I think at least 2 or 3 of our ACC games will be coin-flips just because both teams are garbage.
As long as it is still JMU>Liberty>VT>LOLUVA, I can live with it for this year.
I made a silly mistake in my post and it didn't post fully...I've edited it
My prediction: A football game will be played.
Hoping for a result that won't make me regret buying tickets and going to the game tomorrow.
Edit: got the tickets for cheap when it looked like Ian would wait till Saturday to hit NC. Obviously a rough game to watch, but hope it adds to the elation when VT is good again.
If the game will be played in a hurricane, I have us +31.
With no penalties we win. What's the O/U on false starts?
Cool. Cool cool cool.
What blows my mind the most is that Fuente came in and was supposed to pull our offense up from where it was under Beamer to pair a good offense with an elite defense.
Instead, Fuente cratered the offense, and allowed the defense to fall to a similar shit level to where the offense was when he came in. He was supposed to overhaul our recruiting to be on par with the schools around us, such as UNC, and instead he completely de-emphasized recruiting in the state and largely let the entire venture die on the vine.
What an unmitigated disaster the previous regime was.
just so many misses. really wish elijah bowick and jacoby pinkney worked out. and tyree saunders. and darryl simmons. and payoute, although not much you can do about those injuries.
I know we sing Whit's praises and all, but how in the world was this rot allowed to go on for six years?? Anyone with any serious football background could have seen the issues with our program. Hell, Jerry Kill came in and allegedly almost brawled with the OC he was so disgusted. I get Whit has done some good things for VT athletics as a whole, but after the dust has settled on this, I just don't think he gets football. It's not like we aren't trying, but I feel football has been on equal footing with other sports when it should have been the absolute first priority. It's just embarrassing how bad this program has fallen under his watch. Even the Gameday stadium experience is just a disaster. He may be really respected in AD circles (allegedly so was Fuente in coaching circles so whatever that's worth) and I do admit he's done some good things elsewhere, but this is a major black eye to me.
Hiring head football coaches is a crapshoot.
The game day experience needs to be fixed for sure, but this program can't afford to pay large amounts for money to several head coaches. I think Whit wanted to pull the trigger after 2020, but couldn't for whatever reason. Was that a year too late? Maybe, but we would have been in the hole for over $10mil had we fired him in 2019.
But didn't Whit give him that extension and huge buyout? Ok so I'll give him that one, maybe he thought it was the right thing to do at the time. But after the disasters of 2018 and 2019, could he have put some heat under Fu to make some changes? Other big football schools do this all the time. Hell, UVA basically asked Bronco to fire his defensive staff and he resigned. Did Whit just totally go hands off and let Fu run it in the ground? I just have to shake my head at how bad things were allowed to become, and no one tried to change a thing.
If you are going to give your head coach ultimatums on staff members you better be prepared to back it up. That's generally how it works, make some changes or you're getting fired. If you can't actually follow through on the firing making the threat is foolish. Coaches just resigning like Bronco did is not the norm.
Wow so we have the worst offense in the FBS?
Maybe a first time Head Coach with defensive experience hiring a first time OC was a horrific idea. Crazy that nobody saw that coming /s
Ready to pull the plug on this staff already? Or giving them a chance to grow into it?
Also i think it's P5-teams-vs-FBS-competition, but it's unclear just from that tweet
I was never for the Bowen hire. Last place is unacceptable.
Same boat here. I like the Pry hire but I didn't like the OC hire to begin with. First time HC and first time P5 coordinators at the same time? Not a recipe for success.
It's going to be ugly. I am pretty certain we are going to lose, so I will not be upset about that.
I will be upset if our penalties are excessive, run game is still running the rb straight into the backs of our interior linemen, if we go for 4th and 1 from the gun, and if our corners are getting smoked and not turning to look for the ball.
You may want to have a handful of alka-seltzer by you at all times.
Bringing some tums with me to the bar to nurse my 3 hour stomach ache
Last year's game is on ACCN right now, and I watched Mitchell's touchdown. Don't know if he'd make a difference this year. That injury was bad 😞
Should be similar loss as WV but I want to believe the good guys miraculously find a way to win or UNC finds way to lose. F the T-holes
The game will end, eventually.
6OTs?
I can't watch this shit. Fuck you Fuente!