Not doing a full run down or anything, but there were some ACC related odds that I thought merited discussion.
Duke (-9.5) @BC. Not saying anything about these odds, but just laughing at the ghost of Matty Ice about how bad BC is this year that lowly Duke (who will probably mop the floor with us) is expected to win by two scores.
VT (-3) vs GT. This one makes me cry that I am not jumping all over this. 3 point spread at home is Vegas saying we are a coin flip at a neutral site. Gross.
UNC (-7.5) @LOLUVa. What am I missing here? I know UNC has some injuries, but what the actual fuck? LOLUVa has scored 12, 16, 17, 17, and 20 in their last 5 games in which they went 1-4. UNC has ecclipsed 27 in each of their last 5, going 4-1.
Clemson (-3.5) @ ND. Number 4 team in the country is favored by less than a TD against unranked Notre Dame? Can you say "media bias based on performance in the 90s?"
Louisville (-7.5) vs JMU. I keep forgetting JMU is FBS now. It seems like Louisville is hitting its stride right now so I fully expect them to cover. That said, since we are playing like crap, I want to see every other team in VA burn with us. Also, I still remember 2010 (like they can let us forget) so fuck the dukes.
Comments
Give me Notre Dame straight up. Notre Dame is trending the right way now after a rocky start with the new coach.
that a 2-6 Hokies squad with a terrible roster situation, new coaches, and a losing culture, is favored at all is beyond me. We're going to be lucky to beat a bad GT team. We'll get smoked by Liberty. Duke will handle us with relative ease. We're super lucky that UVA is just as bad as we are but they've been steeped in the losing culture much longer. I like us to win that one. VT will finish the season 3-9. It's going to be a long and painful off season
Correct. Its hard to imagine at this stage of the season, this VT team actually plays a clean game, moves the ball on offense, and tackles their mobile QB. IF we can manage to do all of those things in 1 game for the first time all year, then we can win.
I think we definitely beat GT and LOLUVA. I am hoping for an upset against either Liberty or Duke (and that feels weird to type that).
have you watched this team this year? We aren't "definitely" beating anyone. Except ourselves. We have a shot against GT, Duke and UVA. Of those three, I think UVA is the most likely and Duke is the least likely. I don't think we stand a chance against Liberty. Liberty is averaging 31 PPG. VT hasn't scored 30 in a single game all season. They're only giving up 22PPG on defense too. Their only loss was to a ranked Wake Forest team at Wake. By one point. If VT wins that game it'll be a miracle.
I'm fairly confident all our remaining opponents sans UVA (bc they suck just as much and have a worse coaching staff) beat the brakes off of us. There's really no evidence out there that we're not the worst team in the ACC and we've seen little to zero measurable progress
Truly sad thing is that if we lose to UVa (and I think we have a decent chance of winning that one), we can safely say we are the 5th best team in the state. UVa, Liberty (assuming a loss here) and ODU are better. And if ODU is better than JMU is better too.
Well, we have established the floor. Let's see how much Pry and Company can improve things in the next 2+ years.
Floor? It feels more like a damn basement
We just found a secret trapdoor in that basement leading to a bootleggers stash. It's empty
I said "I think" and I am an optimist. I will continue to hope until the clock reads 0:00 in the fourth. Same reason I stay to the end of every home game that I can get to.
You also said "definitely"...
Well I definitely think at times. :)
UNC UVA line has shrunk to -7 which is ridiculous. You won't need a touchdown push.
Unbelievable that the Heels are this inept on defense. Still plus money on the day though
UCONN ML and Over 40.5 versus UMass tonight. Also, Wake Forest (-4.5) over NC State.
Anyone else make their own power rankings? This year I started for the first time, averaging scores from SP+, FPI, and Cosgrove each week. I use a 2pt homefield advantage, and I'm slightly above 50% ATS in the last 4 weeks (I'm in a pick em league on yahoo where they give me 25 games each week). Looking to advice on how I can tweak my system (I think I need to drop Cosgrove, also want to better determine if 2 points is good for homefield advantage) but I don't have the time to put a ton of effort into right now.
Anyways, here's what my rankings say for these games:
Edit to respond to OP:
No media bias here - I think this line is spot on. Basically, ND's defense is really good, and Clemson's offense is not that great. Most of the algorithms/power rankings agrees:
your first pick makes me sad as I am on Duke -10, never thought id say I am betting Duke football -10
Says more about BC than Duke IMO
I think Vegas does 2.5 or 3 points for home field. How do you do pull the ratings? Do you use python? (Because I don't know python so I want to know how much work it would take to make my own ratings)
I just use google sheets and copy/paste the ranking systems and matchups I'm picking into a workbook. Then I have a bunch of formulas to do some data cleaning and align different naming conventions.
Yea, it's typically assumed to be 2.5 points, but I've read a lot of stuff suggesting it should be lower. It's just a fascinating topic in general.
Here's a piece from Bill C where he talks about how his projections went from 53% ATS to 68% ATS when decreased homefield advantage from 2.5 points to just 1 point (granted, a small sample size, just in the beginning of the Pandemic). A lot of people feel differently about it, but most seem to agree with less than 3, more than 1.
I think your best bet is to try and create "buckets". Meaning this group of teams gets 2.5 and maybe this team gets 1. For example
Athens GA probably deserves the 2.5 points but Duke does not. I hope that makes sense.
It does make sense. I'll have to think about it more. Appreciate the out of the box idea!
this thread is a good reminder why i don't gamble.
loluva and BC covered, ND and GT won outright.
Don't bet, kids...