http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/06/winners-and-losers-from-signing-day/
Losers
Virginia Tech The Hokies received a major blow when top DT Derrick Nnadi signed with FSU. They missed out on Isaiah McKenzie, who signed with Georgia. A top receiver commit, Javon Harrison, also jumped ship to sign with the Seminoles. Overall, the Hokies finished 25th nationally but couldve finished much higher with a stronger signing day.
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Comments
Adding insult to injury...
I'm thinking the writer has a Ph.D. -
BS = B***S**t
MS = More S**t
Ph.D. = Piled Higher and Deeper.
This is easily our best class in years, especially on the offensive side of the ball, and you're letting this "writer" snow you into thinking we've got a bad class?? Come on.
When it comes to VT vs. UVA in determining winners and losers, I'll take the on-field result over anything that these guys have to say. Right now, everyone wants to dissect every tiny bit of information about recruits using their own biased metrics.
Play the game. Decide when you see the product in the system.
But football season is still half a year away, I want to know the value of my recruits now! (sarcasm)
The also list LOLUVA as one of the biggest winners. I don't think the writer of this article knows anything past how to count stars.
Even more depressing...
When reading around at all the comments on this article (both on CFT and SI.com, where it was linked through) the perception of VT is that we're a sinking ship with a coach on the hot seat where you DON'T go because you don't know what kind of situation we're going to be in before you're done. As much as we don't like this, and as much as this may not be true, THAT'S our perception right now. Thats what the masses think of us, and you better believe thats what the masses have convinced the recruits to believe about us.
everyone was also convinced that VT would never play in the National Championship. That Bowden would never be thrown out. That JoePa could do no wrong.
National perception changes in a headline in today's media world dude.
We want people to say differently then starting winning ACC championships again, and win the big games.
I wonder what the national perception is of a program with 6 wins in 2 years and a coach that is most definetely on the hot seat? Apparently not that bad as they pulled 2 5 stars.
If 15 wins and 2 bowl appearances is a "sinking ship" I would hate to be a Florida fan right now, that boat must be bottoms up in the Bermuda Triangle right now. Or a UVA fan or a fan of any of the 23 other major conference teams that didn't even win 6 games last year.
^This, exactly.
Since there is no football to be played right now & recruiting is all about hope for the future, that's the only reason people are talking up UVA. How many times have we seen this in recent years, people saying that UVA is on the right path? What exactly have they accomplished with the guys London has recruited so far?
...
...
...
Don't worry, I'll wait some more, and UVA still won't have won any meaningful games.
This seems like a far better description of UVA in my opinion.
meh... NSD is over. Time for Spring Ball!
Seriously though, it's the same thing on almost every article. We lost Nnadi and Mckenzie. Actually no. We weren't chosen. They never committed to us. We lost Harrison and could be for good reasons.
We gained Ford and Sobczak.
I'd rather have 20 two star players that play balls to the walls and stay out of trouble off the field than 10 five star players that could drag my team down in their B.S.
Dj Fluker thought he could do no wrong at Alabama and it's only a matter of time before NCAA takes a crystall ball away from Bama.
ooh story time!
Dear CollegeFootballTalk and its commentars....
Perspective:
Who's the recruit most people on this site are most excited about? I would say Andrew Ford. How many stars is he? 3. Who is talking about him nationally? No one. But he's our quarterback of the future and could be a star. So take that CollegeFootballTalk.
Honestly if Ford doesn't start eating peanut butter sandwiches 27 times-a-day and having nightly dates with Gentry I think he'll end up redshirting.
He's just too skinny for a D-I QB right now.
He's put on 6 pounds since he's been here, so he very well may be up to a solid playing weight by the time August rolls around.
Ohhhh I did not know that. Glad to hear it!
Showed up in Jan at 6-3, 193 as opposed to the 185 or so listed at last fall. Bet he's around 200 by June.
Just FYI - Ford was the Gatorade Player of the Year in Pennsylvania, beating out a very large number of very good high school athletes in that state. He has a 4-star ranking by 247Sports, and a very high 3-star ranking by Rivals - I tend to ignore the remainder of the so-called recruiting services, especially Scout.
Additionally, we locked him up this past June. Despite interest being shown by quite a few top programs, he turned them away - http://247sports.com/Recruitment/Andrew-Ford-15639/RecruitInterests
Regarding your second point - exactly. Ford deliberately downplayed his own recruitment, told teams straight up he wasn't interested, and generally ducked hype. Not saying that would've resulted in more 'stars' but it would've certainly resulted in more big-name offers being reported. (I figure he had several offers beyond VT, Temple and UMass that just were never reported to the media.)
Perhaps College Football Talk, and all of the derps who follow it and give its analysis any credence:
Honestly, take a look at on the field production and stop talking useless Sh1t.
And to those at CFT and those who say we are a washed up program....
We "lost" McKenzie? lol no. McKenzie just involved us in his drama. I don't think he ever had any intention in coming to Tech. As far as Harrison, we lose him and gain a higher rated prospect from the same state.
As far as LOLUVA, ahahaha. Really just a stupid article.
double
The main problem with articles such as this one, is that it begins to shape the national perception of the VT Football Program in a negative light. And unfortunately perception counts more than reality these days...
Perception NEVER counts more than reality. For example: Please see Night at the Roxbury. Perception does not win games. And in the end, neither do stars assigned by some freaking analyst.
Ok.Ok. I agree with you, you don't have to torture me by threatening me to watch Chris Katan.
Even as Mr. Feather from Undercover Brother?
yes
What'll really change perception is winning games. We have the players to start winning. If these guys can look at the UVA class and call it a winner then you obviously don't understand how football works.
Damn double post
If this were true then LOLUVA would be playing for the ACC championship. Perception in today's media is fluid. It changes daily and in some cases hourly.
I wouldn't get caught up in these articles or anything that tries to be definitive about recruiting. It's not an exact science, not even a science at all. Just guessing what should happen if the kid performs similarly as he did in high school.
It's interesting, I was talking with a guy (An NCSt fan) who said "We got a couple of guys in the Top 300. And I was like...we didn't get but one...
And then I realize what's happening. For so long, there was nothing else. Sports was ESPN and Sports Illustrated. If anyone wants to see where the fuck a ship is sinking, look at these two mediocre outlets. To think the 25th best class out of what...117 is bad, then he needs to look at the law of average. 25th is very high, infact, only 24 teams at best had a better signing day.
Then comes to the second part of my argument: There should be a 6th star set into motion. Guys who are 5 stars and high 4 stars, they're basically the same. There was small difference between AB and NNadi.
When a kid comes out of high school, he's not always been placed in the best position. Sure. Some guys are naturally talented and multi faceted, but look at Cody Grimm. Couldn't get a look outta high school, walks onto Tech and 4 short years later is still revered as one of the greatest Hokies to play.
We don't put stars on athlete's once they enter the draft. It's dumb. Johnny Manziel is NOT the best football player around. Not even close. But, he's got the skills that a team will need, and he's marketable. The rest, they'll teach him.
Also, to quote an SI article 5 years from now "We were wrong about The Hokies recruiting class and no one reads magazines anymore"
No one discusses the 5 stars that AL or other top schools didn't get. I'd say the 25th ranked school is a winner over the 40th ranked school (LOLuva). I'd take that every time.
That's because Bama gets plenty overall, so missing on a bunch doesn't hurt them. They offer over 100 4-5 stars per year so by definition they miss on 80-90. But they get 15+. The getting is what counts, not the missing.
In my opinion Steve Sobczak has the potential to rip the head off of the Nick Saban statue and throw it from Blacksburg into the Chesapeake Bay.
I read somewhere that Michigan unofficially had 12 decommitments from this class. No one is calling them a "loser" on the day because they got a few here and there.
If I am paid to be an analyst, and I am looking objectively at the VT and UVA classes both in the context of who they signed and the positions of need that were filled (LOL, every position at UVA seems like a position of need at the moment when you win 6 games in 2 years), and I can say with a straight face that UVA did better because of 2 guys, I should lose that analyst job immediately.
I would say that the biggest position of need at LOLUVA would be Head Coach.
I mean, I can understand how that was difficult to find. Its only in the link of the OP
Bah, reading on a mobile and didn;t look at the link. No need to be so negative and condescending in every post you make on here
Don't forget people. Our favorite 7 on 7 coaches son Corwin Cutler is coming out of FUMA and going to UVA.
edit: too many ises
Man, I hope he wins the starting job.
I hope he underestimates how fast Dadi is...
Put Sam Rogers in, for just one play, on defense. I don't care where he lines up. Just give him one chance. He'll make "Turtle" never want to come out of his shell again.
Dooley will be just as fast coming from the other side.
Boo Hoo, my editor told me to write about winners and losers. Get back to us with another article in 2016. I like our chances with improved coaching, a better offensive scheme, and a 'kick-ass' attitude.
I don't disagree with the assertion that we were a loser on NSD. We had 3 studs that we had a good chance to bring in and lost all three. That doesn't mean we had a bad recruiting class, are on a downward spiral, etc. I'm okay with that as an honest assessment.
My issue with the article is that most of the "winners" were based on a team's overall class and not who they swooped up on NSD. Mentioning Brown for loluva is pointless because he's already been enrolled. I think the author wrote the losers before the winners, forgetting what the real topic was in the meantime.
We may not like hearing it, but we kind of were losers on NSD. This isn't the first website I've read that on. And this whole thing about the "sinking ship in Blacksburg," we may not like it or think it, but to an outsider looking in, that does seem to be the case. The worst part about it is there is a specific group of kids that see that kind of stuff on the media, and they are called recruits. We definitely are not what we once were, and to those who do not literally wake up and study VT football, it does seem that we are on the decline, which is a very very bad thing. We can't compare Florida to ourselves because we all know about the SEC bias - no matter how poorly they play, they're an SEC team, and ESPN will lop that up. 18 year old kids watch ESPN. That's why I believe if we don't get this offensive incompetence figured out within the next one to two years, it could REALLY damage us for the future. It doesn't matter how optimistic the fans might be, the media is a driving force in today's game.
Wait, I thought we finished ahead of the Hoos in Rivals & 270(?)
We did, but ESPN only cares about the top 150 recruits or so. The fact that UVA got 2 of the top recruits despite sucking horribly on the field is miraculous enough to earn them "signing day winner" status. It's been quite a while since their football team experienced any form of winning, so we'll give it to them for now.
More top-but-untested recruits than wins in the previous season? Sounds like victory to me!
/sarcastica
More top untested recruits than fans at.....ahhh, you know the rest.
So, I was curious about actually quantifying how our class was versus UVA's class and ended up writing a script to scrape Rivals recruiting rankings to compare our classes. Basically it sucks down all the offered recruits for two different schools, finds the intersection, and prints out some stats. Some information I found:
VT 2014
118 offers, 28 commits, 28% commit/offer
Average Offered Rating: 5.75
Average Committed Rating: 5.62
Median Offered Rating: 5.80
Median Committed Rating: 5.80
UVA 2014
133 offers, 16 commits, 12% commit/offer
Average Offered Rating: 5.70
Average Committed Rating: 5.60
Median Offered Rating: 5.70
Median Committed Rating: 5.70
VT vs. UVA 2014
This section highlights recruits offered by both schools and ended up committing to VT or UVA.
41 common offers
10 commits (VT: M. Keihn, S. McKenzie, T. McMillian, C. Phillips, C. Reavis, G. Stroman) (UVA: Q. Blanding, A. Brown, J. Kamara, S.Moss)
VT - 6 commits; Avg Rating: 5.72; Median Rating: 5.80; 0 5 stars; 4 4 stars; 1 3 stars
UVA - 4 commits; Avg Rating: 5.97; Median Rating: 6.00; 2 5 stars; 2 4 stars; 0 3 stars
It seems to confirm what we've been discussing, that UVA got a higher top end but we got more depth. Given some of the discussion in other threads about attrition, I'd be a lot more nervous about the future if the tables were reversed. Statistically speaking we got double the impact recruits (4 & 5 stars), a trend that extends back to at least 2008 (minus 2009 & 2011), which probably explains why we are fielding a more complete team. I suppose the conclusion to draw is that elite talent can be convinced they can turn a program, whereas excellent talent is more likely to go to a proven winner. I also found it interesting that out of 251 recruits we only competed for 41.
For the script jockeys among us, you can find it here. It's written in Python and requires BeautifulSoup to run. You can choose any two teams from Rivals database and select a year to compare. Use -h to see all the options, and be sure to quote "Virginia Tech". User beware though, I haven't considered all possible cases (like comparing two schools with no common offers). Also the Rivals site seems a little wonky, as it always shows VT has having 118 offers but sometimes it duplicates a recruit across page 1 & 2, so that the script only sees 116 unique names. Thus, you should take the results with a grain of salt.
Comment below if you can think of any more comparisons to add or improvements to make. For those that can't run the script themselves, I can also post results of different years or team combinations if there's interest.
Well done. Hooray for data mining! Hooray for Python!
I wish I could give you more legs.
This is good data mining and analysis. I think it basically says what we all think. Its all based on the ***** though (you know,,,garbage in, garbage out). That is the issue. I'm not saying that the analysis is garbage, that is a valid approach, its just the basis of the input data that is suspect. Its all subjective data, so no real objectivity exists, though the analysis tries to do that...
I think the VT recruiting depth comment is accurate.
But, we owe you some pie for the effort. Here:
Why does this thread exist? Do we really want to spread the news of this headline? The story is BS anyway but why even link to it?