HOKIES HOOPS CENTRAL: Pitt (19-7, 12-3 ACC) at Virginia Tech (15-11, 5-10 ACC) 5PM ACCN

HOKIES HOOPS CENTRAL: Pitt (19-7, 12-3 ACC) at Virginia Tech (15-11, 5-10 ACC) 5PM ACCN

For today's @HokiesMBB game, be sure to use the hashtag #LOVE and describe what diversity means to you to be on the video board! https://t.co/B4ZfJ3wuHL— HokieSports (@hokiesports) February 18, 2023

Pitt (19-7, 12-3 ACC)
vs. Virginia Tech (15-11, 5-10 ACC)
February 18, 2023
Cassell Coliseum
5 p.m. ET
ACC Network
Virginia Tech Sports Network

ACCN
Play-by-Play: Wes Durham
Analyst: Dan Bonner

Local Radio
Virginia Tech Sports Network
Play-by-Play: Zach Mackey
Analyst: Mike Burnop

Current Spread: Hokies -5.5
Over/Under: -145

Injuries/Absence:
Pitt: Dior Johnson (Guard) Suspended, John Hugley IV (Forward) Redshirt, KJ Marshall (Guard) Illness, Vason Stevenson (Forward) Unavailable, William Jeffress (Forward) Injured Toe
VT: Rodney Rice (Finger)/ Darius Maddox (Personal Matter)

Back in Cassell 🏰🔥ℹ️: https://t.co/wFjPLVYhXa🤝: @reallifedental pic.twitter.com/U1fUuuQdFR— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) February 18, 2023

Paid Panthers....
The Hokies are back in Cassell after their worst loss of the season against Georgia Tech. They face a paid Pittsburgh Panthers squad that comes in having already won eight more games than the guys Capel actually recruited for last season. Pitt comes in 12-3 in the ACC, trailing only UVA in the regular season standings....yet somehow the Hokies are 5.5 point favorites according to Vegas. The Hokies are 11-8 against Pittsburgh going into their 20th meeting.

The Panthers are coached by Jeff Capel III, who has been at Pittsburgh since 2018. The Panthers are70-76 under Capel III, who is now 245-186 as a Head coach with ten years as a head coach at VCU and Oklahoma before spending seven years in the Duke Dungeon as an assistant. The Panthers have not reached the post season under Capel even with last year's tournament cancelled, they likely would not have received a post-season invitation. They are poised to end that streak.

Pitt started the season on a bad note, going 7-4 in non-conference play, but shook that off and have been on a tear and come in on a six game winning streak.

This is a team that plays defense first second and third and this season seems to have bought an offense to match. All five of Pitt's leading scorers are transfers into the program, Sibande and Burton came in last season, although only Burton played a major role. Hinson, Elliott and Nelly arrived this season. The five are averaging a combined 61 points, 21.9 rebounds and 12.7 assists. The leading scorer for the Panthers from last season took a redshirt after seeing his playing time reduced to a bench role and likely will transfer after the season. Three other players have stepped away from the program during the season as well. The only starter recruited directly into the program by Capel is Sophomore Center Federiko Federiko. No that's not a typo. He has same first and last name.

Defensively, Pittsburgh's main point of emphasis is their match-up zone. Capel's zone applies pressure on the basketball, takes away the corner drives, covers the elbow and supports help side defense. He uses "41 Hot" press that puts pressure on the teams ball handlers in the full-court, trying to force the ball to a poor ball handler.
Capel's defense, similar to the Pack-Line, is especially focused on denying the baseline. Defenders are taught to position themselves to not allow any baseline penetration, relying on help defense to close an adjusted drives to the center of the lane. The key weakness of this defense is if a team can find open shooters on the perimeter AND hit those shots, the integrity of this defense begins to fall apart.

Offensively, the Panthers run a very up-tempo, attacking offense. Pitt averages 1.5 attempts per minute, or about 60 shots per game. They are very efficient, averaging 1.3 points per attempt. There will be times where Coach Capel runs out five although large Guards to try to gain advantage in transition. They create offense by stressing the importance of defensive rebounding, where they average pulling down nearly 70% of opponents missed shots. The Panthers are shooting over 50% from inside the perimeter and 36% outside on 26.2 three-point attempts per game. Thirty points per game and considering the Hokies have allowed their last three opponents to average 11 made threes, it could be a recipe for disaster.

Panthers Backcourt (starters in Bold)
Blake Hinson
2 JR G 6-7 235
Deltona, FL Sunrise Christian Academy HS
15.9 Pts, 6.3 Reb, 1.2 Ast

Jamarius Burton
11 SR G 6-4 205
Charlotte, NC Independence HS
15.8 Pts, 4.9 Reb, 4.4 Ast

Greg Elliott
3 SR G 6-3 185
Detroit, MI East English Village Preparatory Academy
11.0 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 1.3 Ast

Nelly Cummings
0 SR G 6-0 180
Midland, PA Lincoln Park Performing Arts Charter School
10.5 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 4.5 Ast

Nike Sibande
22 SR G 6-4 185
Indianapolis, IN Crispus Attucks High School
7.8 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 1.3 Ast

Panthers Frontcourt
Federiko Federiko
33 SO C 6-11 220
Helsinki, Finland First Love Christian (PA)
6.1 Pts, 5.8 Reb, 0.6 Ast

Jorge Diaz Graham
31 FR F 6-11 190
Canary Islands, Spain IMG Academy (FL)
3.0 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 0.5 Ast

What to expect from Pittsburgh?
The Panthers come in with five players averaging 7.8 or more points per game but the Panthers bench contributions are minimal. Those five players take over 85% of the Panthers shots. That said, Pittsburgh relies too heavily on their starters and any time they substitute, opponents typically surge. The Panthers rely primarily on Hinson and Burton, who account for 32 points on 24 attempts.

One area Pitt excels more than what the Hokies saw against Georgia Tech is in perimeter screening to get open looks. Hopefully the coaching staff has accounted for this and planned an appropriate counter defensively. That counter definitely wasn't there against the Yellow Jackets.

Defensively during the winning streak, Pitt has allowed opponents to score 70+ points in four out of six games. ACC opponents are averaging a 67.9 points per game against this defense, third best in the ACC. ACC opponents are shooting 45% from the floor and only 33% from the perimeter against the Panthers.

In two of their three ACC losses Pitt was held below 25% from the perimeter and heavily outrebounded which isn't exactly a formula for success with how the Hokies have played of late.

Special day in Cassell tomorrow 🏰🥹🦃 #LOVE game vs. Pitt🦃 Chase O'Brien in the houseMake sure to be in your seats early‼️ pic.twitter.com/lbkJMoP8Gi— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) February 17, 2023

The Hokies

It still appears that Maddox will not play and is unclear if there is a timetable for return.

The Hokies showed either zero preparation and/or mental fatigue again against Georgia Tech. Now they must show they can shake off that lack of intensity against a much stronger opponent. If they can slow the Panther's offensive attack then they have the shooters to be successful on the other end. This is unfortunately the type of game you likely live or die by the three and most teams have died there this year.

While Pittsburgh plays stifling defense, they do not create many turnovers at only 10 per contest. The Hokies though will find it difficult to gain extra possessions as the Panthers only commit 11.1 turnovers.

YOU HAVE TO HIT YOUR FIRST SHOT. Even if the Hokies manage to pull down a few extra offensive rebounds, it still wont be enough to overcome Pittsburgh's average margin of victory. The Hokies need to shoot much better than there ACC average 35% from the perimeter (8th in ACC).

YOU HAVE TO HIT YOUR FREE THROWS. The Hokies come in shooting 73% from the line (10th in ACC) and opponents have been averaging a +2 Margin at the line, although that number is heavily skewed by games like Georgia Tech, which finished with a +10 Margin at the line shooting 14-26. The UVA loss was also a +10 Margin for the Hoos.

The free throw margin, while influenced by officiating has seemed more due to the Hokies game plans and failure to adjust in game when they are either out of position consistently or chasing the game after digging themselves into a hole.

Lets just try to forget Georgia Tech
Mutts outside of Heroball Turnovers

In Closing
This game is going to come down to consistent production from all five starters. If anyone goes missing (looking at you Out of control Pedulla) then this game will be much like other recent ACC losses.

The Hokies will definitely need to win the offensive rebounding battle to get more shots and second chance points against the Panthers to keep up in this game. Whichever team gets to the rim more consistently with the ball will do one of two things, run up the score on baskets or ramp up the free throw attempts, which could go a long way in deciding this contest.

One last thing that will be critical for the Hokies is that at least two of three of MJ Collins, Basile and Hunter Cattoor need to find their shot from outside to keep the Panthers honest in guarding the perimeter. This could be a key factor in allowing Mutts, Kidd and Basile the needed space to score inside against the Panthers.

.@NickeilAW's first bucket as a member of the Wolves. 👏 pic.twitter.com/Ou0CDHzRzo— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) February 17, 2023