For those who don't follow, Kelley Ford created KFord Power Rankings. I think I found him on r/cfbanalytics or in the moon crew discord a few years ago (don't recall). I'm not as familiar with his methodology as I am with Bill C/SP+, so I need to do a bit of research and circle back, but it's the offseason, and I don't feel like actually working, so I decided to share.
Preseason Projections
https://t.co/SNh96Bdnu0 pic.twitter.com/iuUSBlkaEU— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) May 8, 2023
It's a pretty sobering prediction. By Ford's metrics:
- We should expect 4.96 wins (he projected 5.2 last year)
- There's only two games we have >50% chance of winning (though there are two other games that we have a 49% and 50% chance, respectively, of winning
- 66% chance we finish in the 4-6 win range
- ~37% chance of bowl eligibility (aka 6+ wins)
On the bright side, Ford does expect us to improve from last year, when we finished as the 95th best team, to the 65th best team.
On Strength of Schedule
By Ford's metrics, the average top 25 team has a 6.7% of going undefeated against our schedule:
This is a common misconception with the graphic! I'm actually not telling VT that they have a chance. I'm saying the average Top 25 team (which VT is not) would have a chance against VT's schedule https://t.co/VvoGq6Uz2R— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) May 10, 2023
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