I almost posted this article when I started reading it this morning and then Bar1990 posted in French's Tuten film review here about Tuten's PFF and confirmed that it would be a good discussion.
Watkins reviews each of the transfers' PFF grades and compares them to the '22 roster by position. I am not super familiar with PFF, but maybe a little more than Fuente ever was (sorry I couldn't help myself). Anyway, here is Watkins' explanation of the grade:
In the Pro Football Focus system, players are awarded grades between 0 to 100. A grade of 85 or higher is considered an NFL-caliber rating while any rating between 78-68 is considered above average. A performance graded 61-67 is considered average while below-average grades range from 50-60, and anything below 50 is considered poor.
A ranking greater than 90 is considered elite and thus is rare to achieve.
Here are some things that jumped out to me in no particular order.:
- Jennings, Lane, and Felton all rank higher than Kaleb Smith and 2 of the three are rated between above average and NFL caliber. Our WR room was so so incredibly bad last year.
- Drones rated very meh at 71.5, but still rates higher than Wells. Hilariously, Brown was the highest rated of the 3. This is a good example of the importance of context and sample size.
- LB Stone Synder from VMI (which I had forgotten about) ranks better than all of our LBs last year.
Many more fun facts in the full article.
Comments
Our roster was baaaaaaaad last year. It remains to be seen if these improvements lead to more victories. I'm dubious because I do not think VT has a QB on the roster that is a game changer or at least has shown the ability to be a game changer.
Do you think we need a 'game changer' or just someone who is decent?
You need a guy who can go out and have the ability to win a game for you.
How many QBs are there in FBS that can do this? IMHO, there's at most 20 (across 130+ teams).
We need any game changer on the roster at any position. I don't care where it is or how many exist at any position in the whole of FBS. It is possible to have game changers on the roster at VT, in most positions, historically.
Unfortunately, we're at a program low point (a trend that has been ongoing for some years now), which is a sub-optimal bargaining position for blue-chip recruiting.
I'm with you. And what I'd most want is a Bruce Smith-like defensive lineman that makes others way better.
Has to be double teamed = makes the rest of the line look better.
Makes life hard on the QB = makes all the defensive backs look better
Has to be schemed against = makes everyone else on the defense better as the focus is on neutralizing him
Oh, and just to be clear, I am no way saying I expect us to pick up another Bruce Smith from the portal. Just dreaming about what I would take if I could magically wish for 1 player to come to VT.
I had the pleasure of watching Bruce play his last two seasons...23 sacks in 11 game season despite being double teamed nearly every play...4.7 40 at 6'3+ and 285 pounds; what a generational talent he was!
Unfortunately, I missed him by just a few years. We were pretty bad every year I was there except for 1 that would be mediocre.
I still feel like a decent OL would make the QB and RB issues look drastically better. Every offensive skill position appears to have improved talent.
Obviously, if we can get a generational talent at QB I would gladly have them. I'm sure those have been all of our favorite VT teams.
We need a competent running game that will make our QB appear to be a game changer. (edited for typo)
This is my thought as well... QB play last year was significantly limited due to surrounding talent. I don't think that any player who is lesser than Tyrod could have made chicken salad from that chicken shit.
Yes. We began each game at a point where Bud wanted to drive an offense to, through the course of a game: one-dimensional.
And even if we recruited another Tyrod, we'd be exactly one injury away from last year's offense.
IMO you are correct, however Wells was both a horrible decision maker and a very poor "passer" (particularly on those short to intermediate throws). I'm not convinced he is a good QB on any of VT's best rosters.
Just my opinion,
I sure hope that we can do better than 3 Ws this year, but the OL and depth on defense has me worried. One or two injuries at key positions and I think we're a 3-4 win team again this year. I am hopeful that raising the floor of the roster helps make watching games more enjoyable this season.
We had an incredibly soft schedule last year and still only won 3 games. We could have a better team and still win the same or less games because our schedule is supposed to be tougher
We also had a game cancelled that we were favored to win and 3ish games that were very winnable. Perhaps the coaching staff having a year of experience under their belt offsets a tougher schedule?
Some context here. Here's a look at our 2023 opponents' 2022 seasons (I'm pulling all stats from sports reference because I can't find Bill's stuff easily/quickly. For reference, I'll list VT's stats (ranking and record) first.
VT (Rk 103, 3-8)
ODU (Rk 111, 3-9)
Purdue (Rk 58, 8-6)
Rutgers (Rk 93, 4-8)
Marshall (Rk 64, 9-4)
Pitt (Rk 30, 9-4)
FSU (Rk 11, 10-3)
Wake (Rk 24, 8-5)
Cuse (Rk 37, 7-6)
L'ville (Rk 21, 8-5)
BC (Rk 96, 3-9)
NCST (Rk 34, 8-5)
LOLUVA (Rk 100, 3-7)
If you go strictly off of where each team finished 2022, we should only win 1 game in 2023 (ODU - incidentally, a team we actually lost to last year). If you consider our "peers" being teams that also finished in the bottom half of college football then there are 4 teams we should be competitive with (ODU, LOLUVA, BC, Rutgers).
But this means that 8 of our opponents were at least 39 spots ahead of us in 2022. We would have to make up at least 60-70 spots in the rankings to even be in the middle of this group of 8 teams. In order to be competitive in more than 4 games in 2023 we need to improve on our 2022 performance pretty drastically to jump about half of the teams in college football. That would take an absolutely Hurculean effort and, frankly, I just don't see it happening.
I think we should reasonably expect to go 2-2 against the teams who finished in our neighborhood in 2022. The other games are almost certainly losses, on paper. We have to hope that we are improved in 2023 but must also assume that everyone else will be hoping to be improved as well. I don't think 2023 is going to be a good year for VT. 3 or 4 wins would be about on par with reasonable expectations. Anything more than that would be remarkable. Recruiting efforts need to continue ramping up and our offensive coaches need to really figure things TF out quickly.
using the same site, I looked at scoring offensive and defensive rankings for VT. The disparity is....something
Offense 114
Defense 62
The defense wasn't spectacular but it was SIGNIFICANTLY better than the offense. Our 4 "peers" come out thusly:
ODU (116, 67)
LOLUVA (113, 52)
BC (106, 88)
Rutgers (101, 70)
ODU and LOLUVA were very similar to us. Drastic difference between offense and defense. There must be something in the water in Va.
BC and Rutgers were more balanced having better offense than us but worse defense.
I'd also say the defense played way better than that ranking. It was straight up gassed in the second half of a lot of games because of that 100+ ranked offense going 3 and out so much. An improvement to 70 on the offense would do wonders for the defensive ranking.
FWIW, SP+ (which accounts for number of snaps, pace of play, ignores garbage time, etc) put our defense in the top 40, and offense outside the top 115.
That's just SOP in Blacksburg
Very cool article, thanks for sharing! Really helps bring into focus what a good good of transfers we picked up.
We could use another oline portal , edge rusher, and one dB for depth-lots of youth there. Hopefully we get 2 of 3 needs. Pry and company have had a good off-season. It would be great to get a couple more .
I haven't spent much time following the timing of portal decisions, but I would have thought most decisions, especially those made by the higher ranked players, would have been made by now. Make your decision, get to school, and start getting better.
I hope it's just me not understanding the strategies used when dealing within the portal. But it probably
has just as much to do with me not understanding the minds of 20 year olds.
Most transfers have. The first one in the 247Sports rankings that still has an unknown destination is 147th Ethan White, Interior Offensive Lineman leaving Florida on the list. The next unknown destination is 422nd. Very few top guys have not made decisions, although there are still a few entering the portal as grad transfers.
Frankly I think PFF is about 50% BS and 50% stating the obvious - and relying on its grades to make broad or specific definitive judgements is a fools errand.
sounds like a lot of my comments tbh
As someone who doesn't know much about PFF, care to elaborate?
If the LT has a great pass set and hold's the DE to no pressure, that play grades high for him, meanwhile the RT just got absolutely smoked and gave up a 7 yard sack.
Tuten's grade is like a 89 or something but played against FCS, Jennings similar. Darrisaw's PFF grade was insane and got him a 1st round pick even thought that 2020 team was absolute ass. It's a decent objective grade but takes out nuance
i think it just accounts for nuance (edit: within a specific game) -- did that player do his job? if it's truly unclear, it's given a zero. here is more information on what PFF is (cl)aiming to do
https://www.pff.com/grades#:~:text=PFF%20grading%20takes%20into%20accoun....
But isn't that the point? PFF is NOT trying to say "Players A and B are better than their predessors, thus VT will be better" (although Evan might be making that argument); rather, PFF is saying "Player A & B are NFL quality players. They are more likely to succeed in the NFL than their predecessors."
That 2020 team (or at least offense) wasn't 'absolute ass' - statistically, it was the best offenses we had since 2010. The players on that team were pretty good. Just made turnovers and bad coaching calls at the wrong times.
the one area where i feel that PFF is lacking is accounting for level of competition. I don't think an FCS grade of 80.0 is the same as a G5 80.0 is the same as an SEC 80.0 -- all get the same 80.0 based on their tape but the degree of difficulty is different since the opponents are different
all that to say is that players putting up high PFF season grades against inferior competition DOES speak to the potential to play up a level and not need as much of an adjustment period.
it's basically a film grade that takes out a lot of the noise that comes from "stats". EG is the INT on the QB or did the WR trampoline-hands it to the DB? Did the DB make a great play or did the QB make a poor decision? Was the sack the result of the end beating the tackle straight up, or did coverage stick so long that the QB was flushed out of the pocket and couldn't quite break contain?
While it takes a lot of noise out there are still a lot of unknowns that could get graded in because the reviewer doesn't know the play so they still have to make some educated guesses.
Three of the top 10. Portal giveth
now, if we could just find a QB who can get them the ball and an OC who can scheme an offense around the talent
I'm optimistically hoping that our o-line coaching change and shuffle of responsibilities over the off-season result in this is already being the case. Just like players can grow over an offseason, Bowen has the potential to learn from last year. AB's article gives some insight into what Bowen is trying to do this year.
"We just weren't able to create rhythm at times," he said. "And whether that be execution errors, things that I would have liked to put us in a little bit better position, I think it all comes in. But I didn't think we were rhythmical offensively. We never created that flow and that tempo that we want to create. So that's been a big emphasis this offseason is how can we simplify, how can we consolidate but still present something very complex to the defense?"
I think many of us would agree with his assessment of Ruth's. First part of fixing the problem is recognizing it. Now hopefully his solution works but upgrading the receivers should help.
Big year for the OC and QB.
- I'm expecting improvements. Not sure how much, but Wells suffered because of a poor OL, poor playcalling, poor running game, and lack of playmakers at WR. He also lost confidence. Wells has to step up with the additions he made.
- Will the coaching changes on offense help? Is the new OL coach a better fit? Some of the quotes I read said things are simpler for the players.
- OC has to do better. He got a new QB, WRs, and a RB. He has to go if we don't see improvement. The skill positions are significantly better than last season. He also has a lot of talent and depth at TE.
These are all valid points. I've never been sold on Bowen simply because he doesn't have much experience. I think it was a mistake for a first time HC to bring in a first time OC to fix the complete dumpster fire of an offense we have.
I think it's unfair to Bowen too. He would have been much better served cutting his teeth under an experienced coach with proven offensive chops.
Pry should have invested in an experienced, proven, OC to help him out with the massive rebuild. I didn't mind the Marve hire as much because at least Pry has proven himself as a defensive coach. It wasn't ideal but it made a heck of a lot more sense than the Bowen hire. It could have been brilliant if he had saved money by hiring an inexperienced DC so he could go out and buy a great OC.
I think Bowen is in a pretty tough spot. He needs to prove himself and doesn't really have the pieces to do it. His leash was always too short for the job. This offense was always going to take years to rebuild and a guy with some real cred would have been afforded the time to do it. In Bowen's case, he doesn't have the time to show whether or not he knows wtf he's doing.
Our offense was like 118th in 2022. I would think Bowen needs to get us into the 90s to keep his job and that's going to be a tall task with the Oline and QB we have. It might be possible to get there in 2024 but I have a hard time seeing it in 2023.
Ive always seen the Marve thing as Frank bring Bud with him. The different is that Bud wasn't DC the first couple of years. The time table is speed up but Marve has had other experiences where Bud did not. So again not worried.
I wasn't worried when Glenn was announced because he has a lot of the experience and could be the guy Bowen needed, I was ecstatic when we landed Rudolph, though worried about the cooks in the kitchen aspect, and how does Joe's and Brad's experience work together. So now it's all on Bowen, I really hope he can do what needs to be done, win.
Yes. It was a poor move that Whit shouldn't have allowed. Bowen is a great recruiter. He should have been TE and pass game coordinator, not OC, not right off the rip. Little league move.
Boy do I love building up hope for a football season. That was the best part when we were good. Wondering if this was going to be the year.
Ain't that the truth.
In June, every year was our year.
Followed up with the most disappointing loss every September/October. Sigh. Those were the days.
While I think we did very well in the portal for skill positions, wow the ACC seems low on talent. Some of this is due to 4* and maybe 5* recruits for FSU and Clemson and Miami not playing last year because others on the depth chart, but those are some low ratings across the board.
I think it would be interesting to see a team ranking system that accounts for both the talent you are bringing in compared to what you are loosing.
Really wasn't impressed by Jennings and Tutens spring game and I am skeptical of all kids who come from lower levels of play. Hopefully they prove me wrong and ball out.
They barely played Tuten. Staff wanted to see how the rest of the Rb room could do and not get Tuten hurt and be out for the season
What I saw did not impress me. Just my opinion dude.
Well you have posted nothing but negative stuff your last 3 post in different threads so I think you're just trying to nitpick everything😂.
Also primus is garbage. I don't know how you can even consider it music. While I'm getting negative things off my chest.
That whit comment and the beginning of this comment and especially the comment in the reddish post were negative as hell. Like I said Tuten barely played and Jennings had to go up against the best defensive backs we have plus they also had the worst of the offensive line and Drones had barely anytime to let the routes get going so I'm gonna give them a pass.
Yea I guess those are negative. I don't think Whit has been a very good steward of VT football. I don't think beating NC State is some achievement we should hang out hat on. I don't think we are going to build a winning program with transfers. Not if we want to be the Virginia Tech we used to be.
You've taken exception to my comments so you either disagree with me, or you don't care if VT performs at a high level again and think I'm just being a meany pants. I'll assume the former.
I don't have the stat line in front of me, but do you think Jennings isn't going to have other teams best DBs going against him? I don't understand how that's even a position you could take.
Poor Oline and pass rush aside, ball hit him in the hands. That's unacceptable for a receiver. I'm sure he would agree he needs to catch a ball that hit him in his hands.
I'm just saying. I'm tired of all the damn negativity for the sake of just being negative. There's a reason why our reputation as a fanbase is falling off big time.
There's like two posters on this website that don't pump sunshine and rainbows.
Wrong but hey let's just continue to be mad at everything even if its positive news🤘
I like that there are a variety of PoVs on this site, including those with a 'negative' outlook. Nothing wrong with sharing a pragmatic opinion, but more substance is always appreciated (eg; 'in Tuten's 5 snaps, he didn't break a single tackle in the second level. That's concerning because our linebackers aren't great' - not an actual opinion of mine, just a random example I made up... but something like that).
I do think it's quite reasonable to think that an FCS player coming up to P5, running behind one of the worst lines in the sport, might struggle a bit.
Our linebackers is one of the best spots on the team 😂
Tbh I don't remember any specific plays from Tuten, and that's probably why I feel the way I do. I'm actually really high on Bryce Duke. Kid has some wiggle.
This is just like saying "with all due respect" and proceeding to shit all over someone.
You've bashed them, and then followed it up with something dressed up as a hopeful line. But it's actually just saying, they're trash until proven otherwise.
The truth is, we don't know how they're going to perform at this level. You don't. I don't. All we can do it sit back and wait. There's certainly no reason to shit on them or our program until we can actually see what our actual state is.
And yes, you've been incredibly negative. And not just here. Your posts elsewhere have been negative.
I'm sharing my opinion on a discussion board. The original post is directly addressing a third party rating system of our new players. And people (you and primus) are upset that l have some skepticism.
And yea maybe I am dressing it up. Because you're right, I don't know for sure, and believe it or not, I'm not trying to be a dick. I am just sharing my honest thoughts on a discussion board. So fuck me I guess.
You made it personal for no reason with that Primus comment. Tells me what kind of person you are🤡
I felt you made it personal when you tracked me across multiple threads to try and paint how negative I am.
I've only called you out on this thread😂
Don't play innocent little angel. You've been trying to bait me this entire conversation with the emojis and condescension.
Your taking every to heart for no reason. I really pity you 😂
You win big boy. They're going to put up AA numbers and carry us to an ACC championship. VT is back.
Never said that we're back but ok keep spewing shit that has never left my mouth 👍🤡
Yet They still sell out tours around the world while you sit here and cry about everything😂
Ironic you're crying about me crying over VT football.
I'm done with you. You have no sense of reasoning or anything😂 its like talking to a brick wall. go talk to a therapist. It will make you feel better 😂
Can't wait to see this locked down in the morning. Hi Joe! Hi guitarman! Hi gobble gobble!
also you forgot Chris smh
anyhow, after thinking about it a little bit, i threw some mega downvotes to both TJB and Primus because this is just petty and stupid and crosses the line. Don't contribute to escalating nonsense. Don't stray into personal attacks (therapy is a good thing, suggesting that someone needs therapy because you disagree with them is not a good thing; don't crap on something someone loves as a way to further provoke them).
The fact that Tuten didn't play is an indication that the staff is really high on him. Additionally, the few snaps he did get showed that he will likely be the best/most talented RB we've had here in quite some time (minus Herbert. And Tuten may prove to be more productive than even him. Only time will tell).
Tuten is a stud and it wouldn't surprise me if he's one of the most productive backs in the ACC this season.
That would be dope.
Didn't Tuten only touch the ball 4 time? 🤷🏻♂️ Jennings history of drops concerns me slightly
Yes
Obviously enough to form a complete opinion about the guy.
Maybe we should have a fight forum . If you can't talk it out, you have to step into the ring and put on the gloves. 3 one minute rounds, and the loser is muted for a month.
We could just have a meet up and wrastle each other.
Well that was a fun 30 new comments to read
Seriously. I have 4-year-old twins. I don't come here because I need more whining in my life.
Tjb and Primus, neither one of you gets dessert tonight. Go to bed.
I agree, no soup for them either
