I was sparked to wondering what JJ was missing with the numerous players that have left the program recently after seeing that the University of Florida had moved up to the #2 ranking in this weeks polls. Florida of course was the destination for Dorian Finney-Smith, and what with Montrezl Harrell playing a key role off the bench last year for Louisville (Currently ranked #13) in winning their National Title it made me want to look at the stats of these Former Hokies.
I decided to pull up the stats for the players still playing that have left the program in the last two years. I know that these stats wouldn't straight correlate to how they might perform in the ACC and that its unlikely they would all be on the floor at the same time but they are pretty eye opening numbers when you take into account Tech's current statistical leaders. Its difficult to say what Allan Chaney or Manny Atkins numbers would be like considering they are at High Point and Georgia State respectively but they are playing key roles for their new teams.
Tech's Current Stat Leaders:
Tech as a Team so far this year:
How the Former Hokies are fairing statistically:
As we can see from the stats, four out of five of these players have comparable points per game to Tech's leading scorer in Eddie, and Eddie is playing 32 minutes per game, slightly more than all but Atkins. Four out of five are averaging more rebounds per game than Tech's leading rebounder in Eddie as well. Van Zegeren would still be the team leading blocker with his 1.9 per game but Harrell contributes a respectable 1.4 BPG himself.
As a group, the five former Hokies average 64.4 points per game while Tech as a team is scoring only 66 points per game. This group shoots 48.7% from the field, primarily because of Harrell and Chaney both shooting above 60% from the floor. Tech is shooting a lowly 41% from the floor. This shows a big difference in the play of our interior players and what being able to take the ball strong to the hoop from the lane can create for a team.
This group of five is pulling in 32.2 rebounds per game compared to Tech's 38 as a team. Again inside the lane play showing a consistent edge to our former players.
This group even shoots Free throws (a hot topic this season) at almost 5% better than Tech as a team, shooting just over 70% while Tech shoots a woeful 64.8%. Tech's average was heavily influenced by the fact that Devin Wilson is shooting 64.9% from the line on 96-for-148 shooting. The nearest teammate to Wilson in terms of attempts are Van Zegeren and Eddie with 61 attempts a piece. Wilson has taken almost 30% of all of Tech's free throws this season. As a group, the former Hokies are scoring 12.6 free throws on 18.4 attempts per game. As a team, Tech is only scoring 13.6 PPG from the charity stripe. I was actually surprised it was that high with how often I have heard announcers speak to how few times Tech had been to the line in a game.
Its pretty telling to me that if JJ had even two or three of these players, we likely would be much more competitive as a ball club.
All of this put out there, if JJ can manage to keep the rest of the ACC slate competitive outside of maybe the Duke game, I believe Babcock will probably give him another season unless there is some massive change in the monies available to him for coaches salaries.
What are your thoughts?
Comments
I wasn't able to watch the Miami game, but I did read about our win. I did watch the Pitt game where we were competitive and should have pulled that game out. Injuries have plagued this team and even without those injuries we were never very deep. It seems like our players are really giving their all. If we can stay competitive in the last of the ACC stretch and maybe pull out an ACC tourney win I'd like to see JJ given another year.
Finney-Smith has still been a bit of a disappointment compared to his expectations out of high school. Would've been nice to get Harrell, but once Pitino was after him it's hard to say we would have held onto him regardless of the coaching situation. Garland is a volume scorer with a low FG% and 3P%, so honestly I don't feel he would be a good fit for the style of offense we run (his presence would be more valuable just as another PG in my opinion). I would like to have Manny Atkins on the team, as our FG% shows that we could use a good shooter and he would provide a little more consistency. Allan Chaney's career has now been ended due his heart condition and personally I have no problem with the medical staff not feeling comfortable clearing him to play for Virginia Tech.
Manny Atkins is definitely someone they could use on this team. With Jarrell gone next year and him not doing a whole lot since about the middle of December, they could have used someone like Manny to spell him some. Plus with only one wing coming in next year, I think that will mean a lot more 3 guard looks.
Sucks for Chaney's career getting cut short, kid was a baller. High Point took a chance and for the most part it was paying off.
Doe-Doe I think had such big expectations, because everyone said he was going to be better than his brother. He still has time, but I don't know if he'll get there.
Wouldn't Atkins have graduated last year if he had stayed at Tech though? Not saying we couldn't have used him, especially when Eddie disappears for a few games every year.
Good point. Forgot what class he was.
I think this team is terrible. Period. It's just a bad team. 64% Free throws? Really?
However, I do believe this is not all on Coach JJ. He deserves another year. The team is young, and you can see his teaching the game to these guys.
I remember another Hokie coach who had back to back dismal seasons his first two years. His name was Frank Beamer, and AD Dave Braine stayed the course. Things turned out pretty good.
Sorry, but a Frank Beamer comparison...
Might as well bring up that Coach Krzyzewski's had two losing seasons in his first three at Duke with an overall record of 38-47 while we're at it.
There are instances of coaches dramatically improving after a difficult start, but Beamer and Coach K also had prior head coaching experience. I'm OK with giving JJ another year, but can we at least not bring up Hall of Fame coaches when the only commonality is early failures?
I get what you're saying, but early failure is the only commonality that I was pointing out. That's why I brought it up.
Actually, it wasn't CFB's first two years, 1987-1988, that almost led to him being fired, it was the back to back losing seasons in 1991-1992. Since the dismal 2-8-1 showing in 1992, Tech hasn't had another losing season, although we came very close in 2012.
It was pretty much expected that we were not going to do well in 1987 and 1988 because we were dealing with the NCAA sanctions resulting from Dooley's creative scholarship record-keeping.
I may receive some downvotes for this but I don't think he deserves another year. He's had two years to try and improve it but failed to do so. Not ALL of it is on him, but the ability to improve on what you got and overcome odds is paramount.
That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if he's given one more year. It's just the way things are done at Tech. Percentage wise I would say 70% chance he's back, 35-40% gone.
Apparently Whit is going to look at the sports with a losing record and assess what direction they need to go. Men's Basketball, Women's Basketball, Lacrosse and Men's Soccer are the main 4 that will be looked. Briz just pulled a decent recruiting class and Lacrosse is competitive so I think one of the two basketball coaches may be the ones that go, if anyone is let go.
where did that extra 5-10% come from? just curious
Just playing around with numbers. I like them but I'm not always great at playing with them.
60.0% of the time, it works every time...
That doesn't make sense...
I think it is a toss-up. 65% chance he stays, 65% chance he gets let go. Also, a 25% chance he moves on to a head coaching job at a better school.
Now that's an interesting perspective. See I'm inclined to think if he does move on as a HC it won't be to a better program OR he may move on to a better program as an assistant.
A. everybody loses players. Are we bringing back everyone else's players too?
B. JJ was a coach, either HC or assistant, when these guys left. Keeping your players is part of the requirement if the job.
C. I'm not sure why we are still discussing JJ. We are a disaster, we've got a new AD, it's over. I can't fathom that the people who will make this decision are even considering keeping him. There is no reason to keep him. This has been a Stokesian run, and like Stokes, it's clear that it has run it's course.
JJ was at Clemson during part of the period where the players were evaluating staying with VT or moving on. Not sure he would have done much better but we'll never know the way it was (mis)handled. Using that as logic for dinging JJ is well ... illogical.
When you contemplate an action in life. You don't do it because you're piss** off or embarrassed or a disaster. Is that you Jim? You do it because you have a future contemplated that is better than other reasonable (possible/probable) alternatives. Is that you Jim? Are you hearing me Jim? Do you understand Jim? This isn't about your ego, or rather shouldn't have been. This decision impacts a whole lotta people besides you. Coaches, assistant coaches, players, all present and future.
I don't think it happens unless we spend a big shack of money to fix it right, for a good while. Football is tenuous right now for alot of the reasons that have to do with the ACC. We need to keep our assistant coaches despite a gap with current and prospective pay. Doing a half way with basketball and a couple of "whoopsies" in football is gonna make the whole VT apparatus appear to everyone the way it was run over the last 10 years. Pound foolish penny wise. As long as JJ isn't taking on water with assistants and recruits, I think he gets supported. Once we have a long term solution funded, JJ will have to have righted the ship or will then get removed. We're all huckin and shuckin and making it up as we go along. Its about the amount of risk we take on while we do it. We've been taking on too much risk for far too long and raising funds and prudently spending funds is the way to fix the situation. Times have changed. We are Virginia Tech. Too many of us didn't and don't believe that.
Wasn't he only at Clemson for like a week and a half?
Yes, he basically left his office and the feedback he gave Weaver and Co. in his exit interview led to Greenberg getting the boot and he came right back.
That's what I had thought. Like within two weeks... he left, they fired Seth, and then JJ got hired as head coach.
JJ wasn't the head coach when most players left though. That's kind of important. When most people left it was Seth who, apparently, most people in the program didn't like. If you worked with a group of people and one person was the leader or took over the lead role and he was a dick, you would switch groups if that option was available to you too even if there is another person in that group that you like. I may not have said this as well as it sounded in my head but hopefully you get the picture
JJ has had his share of players leave the program or opt out and stay out once it was announced he was going to be the head coach.
May 1st, 2012 Johnson hired
May 8th, 2012 Finney-Smith announces his transfer
May 10th, 2012 Montrezl Harrell asks for release from NLI He was released on May 17th, a week later.
March 26th, 2013 Robert Brown requests release from his scholarship
December 27th, 2013 Marquis Rankin leaves the program
Wood is rumored to be leaving after the season is over. F-S and Harrell were both available to convince to stay by the time JJ took the job. Were there other powers at play in both these decisions? Sure, AAU coaches being hired mysteriously into both Florida and Louisville when Seth got fired and other doings but JJ had a chance to convince both of them to stay.
Brown was unhappy at Tech, there was family stuff, but still it boiled down to anticipated playing time and his inability to shake the slump he had fallen into on the court.
Rankin had family stuff going on as well and all reports are JJ did everything right in supporting him, but still another player that left.
The inability to anticipate the issues with Mueller and Clark as a program when counting them as part of this class is another issue that falls to inexperience in the program as a whole and is a big part of JJ's job when it comes to incoming students.
The poor handling of the discipline issues with Raines and Wood this season are another point that jump out a big negative for me as well. All of these issues fall to JJ, so that's about half the kids that have left the program in recent years or have been unavailable and JJ wasn't able to adjust. Hopefully this off season goes smoothly and none of the incoming recruits have issues. Kirby and Mueller should be active next season, Smith should be healthy, but there is that looming issue on the potential of Wood leaving. Guess we shall see.
If it's and but's were candy and nuts, we would all have a Merry Christmas......we have lost 8 games by 7 points or less. Take wins in those 8 games and we are 17-7. We have lost to the # 1 and # 2 teams in the nation and had opportunities in both games to make it close. We are starting most games with 3 freshman ( not red shirts) in the starting lineup, along with a sophomore and a senior. A freshman was named team captain because of his leadership ability. A freshman point guard is averaging 35 minutes a game and has got to be worn out. Wilson was terrible from the free throw line, but has improved tremendously. The two seniors on the team have not produced as expected and have not brought the positive leadership that is expected from seniors. Injuries? 3 possible starters ( Smith, Barksdale and Wood ) were out the last couple of weeks when some of the biggest losses occurred. Emelogu has been hurt, but shows great potential. But, there is improvement and things will get better. Even JJ is going to get better when he has a full team to practice and play with. Thompson is getting more minutes and is getting better. Wilson will improve tremendously by next year. Smith will be back. JVZ has his good days and is showing confidence. We have 3 recruits coming in next year. JJ deserves another year. He is the lowest paid coach in the ACC and as long as he retains the underclass players this year, he will get it turned around. Reminder - he is also a " freshman " this year.
Technically he is a sophomore...and no Erick Greene does not count as a coaching redshirt season. Everything above may be true except for making it close with Michigan State or Syracuse, that wasn't in the cards, we lost by 19 and 20 respectively to those two teams.
As for the seniors producing, Eddie has done just fine. His moments of not being perfect stand out because he is all alone in regards to offensive production otherwise he leads the team in most offensive categories regarding scoring.
It didn't help that JJ named Emelogu Captain, regardless of his potential leadership abilities. I know I probably would have taken that as a slap in the face if I was a senior on the team. If I am the other players its also an indication that the coach doesn't have faith in his seniors to be the captain. What does that do to team morale? Did it play a role in the issues with Raines and Wood? As for Raines, its hard to produce consistently when you don't know if you are going to play on any given day. I don't know the specifics of JJ and how he keeps his doghouse but Raines has lived in it most of the season as has Wood. Whatever the specifics are, the way the punishment has been handled has been poor at best, downright irresponsible at worst.
"Eddie has done just fine" ? 1 for 7 again, no rebounds, no assists, 7 total points, crucial time of the game and no production....and should he have been named captain?
As you will see in most of my write-ups, if Eddie does poorly on a given night I am critical of him, as I was tonight in my game thread post. That said, show me another player on offense on this team that has been even remotely consistent. He plays with what appears to be the weight of the world on his shoulders, as you can see it in his face when he doesn't deliver. Emelogu throws up a three and misses and it doesn't even seem to register. Do I think he should have been the captain? I don't have enough access to say but historically looking at teams from most sports, you rarely see a rookie or a freshman named Captain, its usually something that's earned with time and respect. JJ made his decision but I would love to have been there when it was put to the players. To be honest so far this season, I would have rather seen someone like Christian Beyer named captain.
And if we want to point to the statistics so far, Emelogu tonight scored 8 points, on 2 for 6 shooting. Critical time of the game, his last point came with a free throw with six and a half minutes left and nothing more to show down the remainder of the game. He and Eddie both missed a three and a free throw in the last four minutes.
This season, compare the two of them, and Eddie is better in the most important categories. Eddie averages three points more a game, 2.4 rebounds more a game, and then the rest of their stats are basically a wash. Eddie is shooting slightly better than Ben from behind the arc and the free throw line. Emelogu has also missed five games this season. His fault? No but its all part of the package. You want to be the freshmen whiz kid, you need to deliver big results. He was named Captain and wasn't even expected to start, I know it wouldn't sit right with me if I had been busting my butt for the program for three or four years to have the coach hand something like that to a baby face kid because he is JJ's Golden Boy. I think next season there is a good chance Emelogu may find it harder to get on the court than it is this season with the incoming recruits, Smith and Mueller healthy, and that may get even more so his Junior year with the potential guards we are working on. I don't get to go to practices but nothing in the game has made me say wow about Emelogu. I don't see him firing people up on the bench or leading huddles on the floor. Little things I know but from the outside, that's all you have to judge on someone being the leader of the team.
This is about the only thing I disagree with here. Ben is about the purest athlete we have at guard and the only reason he even is in Blacksburg, is because of knee injury wiped out his entire senior season. With a full offseason to develop and get healthy, he will be even better next year. I don't really agree with him being captain, but I do see him starting next year. Smith is better off the bench and with the way Wilson is playing this year, I'm sure he'll be the starter against at point. I think Mueller being able to come in for him will help Wilson get rest and the team won't miss at much since he is a natural point guard.
If I had to name a captain based on game performance and watching practices, I'd say either JVZ or Will Johnston. They are the main ones being vocal in practice and both have busted their butts off to improve this year.
Thanks for the behind the scenes feedback, tough to get a feel for that without being able to see it.
I don't see how that amounts to JJ "turning it around," though there's no clarification as to what you believe that means. If JJ gets another year, will he win more conference games next season? I would certainly hope so. Are we looking at a team with in the top half of the ACC? Personally, I don't see that happening. To me, "turning it around" next year and getting 4-5 ACC wins isn't enough though.
Did anyone else feel sick watching Montrezl Harrell over the weekend dunking all over espn top 10 plays? I know i did.
I caught those highlights as well, left a bad taste in my mouth.
Yea....
JJ just doesn't know how to coach a half-court offense. I know the whole "He wants to run up-tempo" argument or the "everyone is injured" argument. But you still need to be able to run a a half-court offense. It'd be one thing if we were getting open looks off our "plays" and our guys just weren't talented enough to hit them consistently. But we have guys standing still for most of the 35 seconds. In that game against Miami on Saturday how many possessions came down to the last 5 seconds with someone just jacking it up to beat the shot clock? I think JJ got a raw deal with the timing of the Greenberg firing, but the evidence is there that he just isn't a very good coach. It's definitely unfair to him for us to fire him after this season, but there's no reason to wait another year for what is blatantly obvious right now.
What do you all think the odds are that we decide to keep JJ for his whole contract. But as an assistant. Ive never heard of this being done, but could bringing in a profile coach and keeping JJ be an option?
I don't think JJ would put up with it. Maybe if they brought in a Hall of Fame type coach, but the chances of that are zero with our budget and history. Even then its questionable.
As for JJ staying his entire contract, if he makes it through this season, anything is possible. If he managed to go .500 next season in the ACC, I would expect him to be back again. He just has to see about surviving the last few weeks of this season. Right now with their increased competitiveness, I expect he will be back next season but the next five games will have an impact on that.
Welp.