The Colorado Board of Regents special meeting agenda tomorrow?An action item on "Athletics operations" pic.twitter.com/NH2ktn2zHk— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) July 26, 2023
Colorado is in discussions on a potential return to the Big 12, and its Board of Regents has scheduled a special meeting for Thursday.Here's the latest: https://t.co/cLWVaw5Kbv— Max Olson (@max_olson) July 26, 2023
This could be a major twist to PAC 12 future.
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Brett seems pretty sure it's happening. So who next? Arizona or Arizona State?
Big 12 stability
They have a signed TV deal. PAC 12 doesn't.
Also PAC has lost two titans with two more quality teams ready to leave if anyone else leaves. Dominoes will fall now that Colorado is leaving, or so they say.
dominoes you say?
Yep. Who do you think is behind all this?
Larry Scott absolutely destroyed the PAC12 and took a huge check on the way out the door.
The point being, a bad Commisioner can devastate a Conference even once they are gone.
I have, so far, been minimally impressed by Philips and now with the NW smoke also rising, I think the ACC seriously needs to consider whether they may want a "change in direction."
The Deion Sanders years at Colorado have gotten off to a rocky start
Nah man, dude is tearing it down to build it up bigger than it was capable of before.
They'll never be a playoff contender but they will be in Big 12 contention within 3 years.
Based on what?
Based on his track record of being a winner at every stop he has ever made in his whole life and the posters personal opinion.
So his three whole years coaching at Jackson State. Got it.
how many years have you coached at Jackson State?
None but that's why I'm not guaranteeing he is going to succeed at a P5 school in a conference he didn't know he was coaching in months ago when he was hired and cleaned his roster.
I don't think Deion is going to win, but I'm pretty confident that he'll make boulder a more attractive destination than it was when he got there. Which is a feat in itself
He is going to cheat- rather openly (smart) - and will win 7-8 games max. Then he will leave the next coach a mess to clean up.
How is he cheating?
I'm not with him every second, but I said what I said. Tampering, stretching NIL, unauthorized contact with recruits, no show jobs, etc. I said what I said. Colorado is football siberia, so when they start signing 4 and 5 star recruits, they are cheating. I said it.
He's not doing anything that other coaches aren't. He's just doing loudly.
agree- thus me on record as saying Pry should cheat openly and as often as possible. worse case we determine our own lame punishment and UVA ribs us. I'll take it
He needs to be smart about how he cheats because Colorado is the type of place the NCAA has no problem using as an example, and some ways of cheating they have no recourse, but others they will go after them.
Good I am glad we agree.
With the playoffs expanding, a B12G contender is a playoff contender.
I've yet to see a Boulder statement.
Man, I'll believe this when I see it.
Edit: well that aged like milk
P5? ...and then there were four.
SEC having the portal talk with Missouri right now.
I say send them all back to where they belong
Nebraska wondering why all the B1G schools keep forwarding them this story.
Rumors are swirling that this unlocks Washington and Oregon to jump ship as well as they won't be the bad guys who killed the Pac 12, curious to see if the SEC feels that they need to respond
I don't see why they would unless the B1G grabs Washington and Oregon.
completely unverified reports claim that Coach Prime's only comment is "I saw this coming and had to make a business decision"
The Big12 plan of survival for the super-conference realignment wars appears to be volume. They might get to 20+ teams without a single elite-tier brand program.
A UVA grad started a tire store and said he was going to beat everyone's prices and sell at a loss. I asked him how he was going to make money. His reply...."Volume!"
did you hear about the roadie for the death metal cruise who had to get hearing aids? He lost more with every sail, but was going to make it up with volume.
...there are....soo many puns here
Their goal is to land the best teams that (a) care a lot about football and basketball and (b) no one else wants. It's working pretty well.
I think if they poach a handful best-of-the-rest from the Pac12, maybe snag a couple more from a dissolving(ed) ACC, they will be in good position to survive. It will be a bit of an odd thing when you have the B1G and SEC on a tier by themselves, but if they can sort of arbitrarily remain level with them on volume they will weather the storm.
Meanwhile the ACC is continuing it's downward spiral towards irrelevance...
Does Colorado joining the Big 12 really make them more relevant than the ACC? They were 1-11 last year and Deion hasn't had to coach a team that didn't have superior talent. The payout from the Big 12 TV contracts isn't any better than the ACC and then factor in travel time for all of the sports. I'd rather be in the ACC than the Big 12.
It does make the BigXII more relevant because the conference isn't prohibited from continuing to add and nobody is currently looking to leave -- ACC isn't in a position to really add PAC schools unless thinfs get real weird, but the BigXII is. Chances are additional schools jump to avoid being stuck without a landing spot, and chances are those schools more or less wind up in the BigXII.
Would i rather be in the ACC geographic footprint with our historic rivals? Sure. But the BigXII is more 'relevant'
I don't think this is the right way to look at it; relevancy and stability are different things.
Is this Rayo's burner account?
It's official.
So is PAC 12 dead? Stanford seems to be done with going all out for football, USC and UCLA are leaving, Colorado is leaving, Cal doesn't care long term. So Oregon, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Washington need a home.
Pac12 was dead when usc and ucla bolted and they still don't have a tv deal for next year
If only the Great Communicator was still with us and at WSU. Sure he'd have some funny takes.
RIP Pirate
time for the All Coasts Conference to gobble them up
Oregon will definitely be fine. Washington will likely be fine. The rest... mountain west+ is the best case scenario.
Stanford supposedly has modified their enrollment standards to be more accommodating to transfers and has a pretty good class committed currently, might not be dead yet?
Not even SMU can do crazy like that.
Hmmm..
Bet San Diego State is all of a sudden looking much more appealing, eh PAC-12???
Richard Johnson said it best, they're a 6 that's looking a lot more like a 9 to the PAC 12
The ACC needs to play hardball on this. This is a destabilizing move by the Big 12, they don't want Colorado, they want the PAC 12 to falls apart. The ACC should jump in front and offer full shares to Oregon, Washington and the Arizona schools. Get Gonzaga for basketball. That way these schools all have travel partners and the ACC teams only have to go out west 1-2 times per year for football, 2-3 times for basketball.
Increases TV revenue, more timezones, when a new deal comes we get bid way up for sure. Drop BC and Wake when the GOR ends. Use the better TV money to try to add Stanford and Notre Dame.
The map may look weird but these cross country conferences are becoming the norm. Better to get in on it now than to just die sticking to the old model
Of all the realignment scenarios...I hate this one least.
I'd still rather get out of the ACC, but if we are stuck here, I wouldn't hate this setup
We aren't stuck here. Leave. Fuck the GOR- let the ACC sue us and spend years and years in litigation only to have a judge drop it because FSU is leaving too. ND likely going to get out of it too soon. Leave. Go to the SEC and let the courts work it out while we bring in 80% more football revenue.
It's not going to be that easy man. There's two things you're not considering:
So, if VT leaves the ACC for the SEC, then the ACC is going to sue ESPN for the revenue that every VT game brings in. The SEC is going to get sued by the ACC for broadcasting the VT games on the SEC network. IF we were to go to the B10, the the ACC/ESPN would sue Fox/B10.
If VT leaves the ACC, they need a landing spot. No conference wants VT so badly that they are willing to get sued over it. The SEC and B10 are each fine without VT. Would they like us? Sure. Would they take on a years long lawsuit so VT could join? No.
The only chance of the GoR ending early is if a majority of the schools collude to leave the ACC for other destinations.
Some smoking, smoking hot rumors that FSU is about to leave. 👀
Not really. No board meetings scheduled. Not a single FSU talking head here in Florida puts any stick in that rumor.
A special board meeting and agenda for Aug 2 just popped up on their site today concerning the booster club and a major loan.
TLDR: Unrelated
https://trustees.fsu.edu/sites/g/files/upcbnu3666/files/meetings/2023080...
Ah, had not seen the full board materials. Strange they would call an unscheduled meeting for this, but appears to be unrelated at least for this item. Thanks.
Colorado wanted the Big XII more than vice versa but it doesn't mean the big XII didnt want the buffs. CU was in the different iterations of the big xii for like 70ish years before going PAC.
On the other side of it -- if the ACC on a conference level wants to add schools, what benefit is there to the current schools to add those west coast schools, and why would those west coast schools sign up for the GOR?
If new schools are added, does the media deal come back to the table for negotiation? If it doesn't, why would any current school vote to dilute the pool for the next decade? If it does, what incentive is there for the ACC to add schools knowing that the GOR that is tied to the media deal is the only reason the conference hasnt folded?
The GOR/TV deal ends in 2036 -- we're about as close to that time point as we are from when CU, Nebraska, aTm, and Mizzou left the Big XII to begin with
Those schools are above the mean in the ACC and in new markets, they would raise the TV money. The west coast schools would come for the same reason Colorado went to the B12, a guaranteed TV deal and it's the most money outside the B10 SEC.
TV money doesn't just appear when you add a new school, you have to renegotiate the TV deal. ACC probably wouldn't even start floating negotiations for another ten
tearsyears from now10 tears that's only a few more comments about our GoR away from renegotiating then.
dag nabbit
We got more TV money when the ACCN got added to Comcast. A renegotiation wouldn't take place but as I understand the total pie would increase with more TV markets being added and there could be a bump per school from that
Does it increase the revenue by more than 15%? That's the break even point for the existing schools on tv revenue alone (not counting travel, etc). Anything less than that is a net loss for existing schools to grow the conference from 14 to 16 members.
The significance of TV markets in this day and age is the ability to charge a higher price for a conference network.
Here are the media markets in play for Arizona, Oregon, and Washington.
Arizona
Phoenix (Prescott) (#11)
Albuquerque-Santa Fe (#49)
Tucson (Sierra Vista) (#65)
Washington
Seattle-Tacoma (#12)
Spokane (#67)
Oregon
Portland, OR (#22)
Eugene (#119)
Medford-Klamath Falls (#136)
Bend, OR (#180)
Are those markets big enough for the extra subscriber fees to move the needle for the ACC?
And the individual schools probably want the bump to more than offset the extra travel expenses.
This is a big piece of it - There's still 13 years left on the GoR. In the next 13 years, the SEC/B10 will likely each go through two new TV deals. Amateurism will either be a thing of the past, or the NCAA will have been granted an antitrust exemption by congress. No one is signing up for that.
This varies by conference - B12's TV deal stipulated that if new schools are added, they come in as a full member (this is why Colorado is getting a full share in 2024 - per the most recent SZD patreon, and it was a concession the conference got in exchange for not bringing their rights to the open market). I believe the B10 is the opposite.
I will be honest the GoR doesn't terrify me the same way our TV deal does. If adding Oregon and Washington breaks the existing TV deal and gets us anything even 80% of the current SEC deal I am for it. The school administrations love the security of the GoR, they don't like the TV deal that is putting us in a current 3rd place that could fall to fourth behind a reworked B12.
One thing I can guarantee, any new TV deals are not going to be 20+ years again.
The GoR and the TV deal are basically the same thing. The GoR is between ESPN, ACC leadership, and each ACC team. Here's a copy of the 2013 GoR - you'll see the parts about ESPN and the 'ESPN Agreement,' and how the ACC is granting the broadcast rights of all teams to ESPN, for a price agreed to in the agreement.
I cannot stress this enough - you are SEVERELY overestimating the value Oregon and Washington would bring in this hypothetical scenario (or you don't understand how far ahead of the ACC the P2 are):
For all the extra value Oregon and Washington bring, they bring $8m per ACC school, and still don't even get us to 50% of what the SEC is pulling in.
My understanding is the GoR and TV deal is linked -- if the ACC goes after a new TV deal, it bring the GoR into play, no? And why would any of the ACC schools agree to a new GoR knowing what we know now?
Correct - the GoR is between all of the ACC schools and ESPN.
I don't know if adding schools would dissolve the existing GoR or not. I've heard/read speculation both ways
Here we are a whole 10 years after signing the marquee brand in college football to our GOR, our deal is a clown show and not going to get any better. Some people opined this at the time.
I wouldn't say no to playing Oregon regularly if it meant we try to match their uniform game.
This is a dreamland type of wish. It's absolutely delusional. As much as I would love the acc to cut some dead weight, it's never going to happen. Notre Dame is never going to join the acc. I don't think they will join a league in our lifetime but if they do it sure as hell won't be the acc.
I know that you have this undying love for the acc but it might be time to just admit it's a doomed league and nothing will save it
The only place this has a remote chance of happening is dreams or the new NCAA College Football game EA sports is releasing.
ACC is doomed. It's just a matter of time until the first domino falls and the rest will be quick.
Yes the far more likely move is the ACC doing the ultimate toothpaste fuck job to its members and adding shit like ECU, JMU, FIU, FAU, USF... once ECU is in your conference, they are in your conference. And you are no longer a power league. Toothpaste. Once FIU is in your conference, they are in your conference and you are nothing close to a major league.
It's too late on a Friday to wrap my brain around this one.
Saw this pop in the Recent Comments tab and was like "what to heck could even be the context of this" and then somehow the context is even more confusing
Better out than in, I always say.
More likely WVU, Cincinnati and UCF before any of those you mentioned. But a lot can change in 13 years
You say this with zero authority. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it should. But there's no debate over whether it *can* happen. There's two ways 1) When renegotiation happens don't include them in the contract. 2) Lower their shared revenue. They don't provide any value to the conference
Technically I can become the President of the United States based on my age citizenship. I am guessing you would file that under dreamland type of wish and delusional?
I dunno, how are you calculating the odds of a given US Citizen becoming President? Hope you're British by ancestry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancestral_background_of_presidents_of_the_...
Well will all of the major stakeholders with the power to make you President benefit from you taking office? Because then we have an equivalent analogy
Well now that you put it like that I guess I should be president.
See, very easy
It does feel like the ACC needs to make a move, but Phillips doesn't come across as a man with any sort of diabolical master plan.
I do seem to recall that adding schools would reopen the contract, which could be why he's not doing anything. As soon as that happens, multiple ACC schools will be invited to the SEC and B1G and the whole thing blows up.
But, it's going to blow up in 2036 anyway (the Power 2 definitely want parts of the ACC and vice versa), so hopefully the conference is having discussions about reorganization while palatable options still exist (for both exiting and entering schools).
The "super" conferences get another round of media negotiations before we do and who knows what might happen then - the landscape as we know it may not even exist in 2036.
Hopefully this latest move helps the ACC schools that want change to be able to convince the others that all likely fare better if the dominoes fall now than 13 years from now.
13 years feels like eons in college football too. For example, 13 years ago Frank Beamer was coaching, Tyrod Taylor was playing, and we were about to embark on a campaign that starts with two very painful losses before going on a 11-0 run (including an ACC title win over Jimbo-coached FSU) before falling to Harbaugh-coached Stanford in the Orange Bowl. VT was still a respectable football program 13 years ago. That feels like ages ago at this point. 13 years from now so much will likely be different that its hard to imagine what the landscape will even look like.
For one thing, the freshmen playing 13 years from now are about a month away from starting kindergarten.
This has nothing to do with Phillips man. Phillips has made two big moves already:
What moves are left?
A bad commissioner can sink a conference, a good commissioner can only do so much. At some point, the ACC needs to step it up on the field.
I think the PAC12 is more likely to swallow the Mountain West than join the ACC.
I think most likely is the rest of the four corner schools go to the B12, and Mountain West swallows the PAC
That did run through my mind as well.
Probably needless to say, but just as much as ESPN helped put VT on the map - and VT helping to put College Gameday on the map... They certainly, and drastically, have changed the landscape of CFB. Bowl season was such an awesome couple of weeks when I was growing up in the 80's-90's, and even a bit beyond that.
Just because I don't love something doesn't necessarily mean it's bad, but damn... I can't see how this benefits the sport, or athletes, at a broad level.
Just anecdotal, but I find it so hard to separate "things were better because I was young" from "things were objectively better" when it comes to things I no longer enjoy.
I'm not ready to give up on college football. It will be different in 5 years but it could be pretty great.
First of all, "young" is a relative term. Maybe you should have said, "younger". Secondly, I did clarify at the end of my post.
In any event, the deconstruction of the regional rivalry games (along with so much else that was good and exciting about the sport - i.e. the reality that any team could sneak into a National Title in any given season) is not good for CFB regardless of the bowl set-up, playoffs or whatever things evolve into. Even the NFL still has this sort of thing, albeit in a slightly different way.
Again, just my opinion... But I do see this similar thought process throughout various fanbases around college football.
I was hoping I was being clear by saying it was just anecdotal, but to be clear: I wasn't arguing or trying to make a point. You're wasting your time trying to pick apart what I said, because there's nothing to rebut.
People supposedly on war chant claiming in the know info that FSU and Clemson will be forcing the issue and trying to bounce soon...
Haven't people been saying Clemson and FSU were going to force the issue for quite a while now?
When's the last P5 realignment move that people knew about it before it happened? Probably when VT got into the ACC.
Colorado to the Big12.
Not really trying to be snarky but I've seen rumors about it for the last 6 months. There was also some rumors about USC looking to bounce once the Pac blew their TV deal the first time. So its not unheard of. What's different it you have to know where to look. The big time reporters aren't reporting on this type of stuff anymore for whatever reason until its just about done. All the details are coming from random accounts on Twitter. Some are bullshit, but some are actually legit.
It's not actually people in the know. It's accounts throwing shot at a wall then claiming success when one thing they say turns out right. It's a volume based "prediction" game.
Most are, but sometimes there are legit ones. Like Trilly Donovan for college basketball.
Absolute worst case for realignment is FSU Clemson UNC Miami getting new homes while everyone else is forced to stay in the ACC. Closely followed by going to the Big 12.
For everyone who wants the ACC to die, I think you may be ignoring this scenario which imo is one of the most likely
I personally would be surprised if Miami is a take at this point in the cycle for either P2
You don't think the B10 would be interested?
I agree, it's absolutely possible that VT gets left out of the P2.
My fear is now things will be rushed even more with the pac 12 implosion. Oregon Washington will be vying for moves immediately. FSU Clemson will jump ship asap and Miami is an easy sell to either conference.
No one from SEC or Big even brings up VT as the next big candidate due to recency bias and no one seeing VT as a winning program. UNC/UVA plastered everywhere (which makes me lol) and even Louisville getting name recognition amongst SEC and BIG posters online.
Just got a real bad feeling about vt getting left in the cold because we were a few years late letting Beamer retire in his own terms and Fuente death nailing our program into a multi year rebuild and embarrassing name nationally.
the irony here made me laugh lol
Lol ok ok poor wording, I'm not known for my linguistics. Help me articulate that into a non offensive "I love Beamer and he definitely deserved to go out in his own terms; but for the sake of the program perhaps he was a year or two, too late"
And not a single one of those will be involved in any decision making.
If they can find a way out of the GoR, then we can too. If nothing else we would be attractive to the Big12 which would still be more money. The other option is 8 teams collude to leave together and dissolve the GoR. 8 teams would need to have homes waiting though.
Big 12 is less money and added travel
I might be inclined to believe this. The Pac12 is dead. The BIG wants to expand but there comes a number they will hit where its no longer profitable to keep expanding so there's limited numbers of potential spots. The ACC teams that want to leave might try to make themselves available so teams like Oregon and Washington don't end up taking those spots. If/when (more when than if) expands, they look to the southeast because it makes the most sense business wise. But if those ACC schools are just content (they aren't) to sit around until 2036, the BIG might take those other schools and be done with it. They might not force the issue now, but it'll happen soon. Soon being anywhere from now or within the next couple of years.
Forcing the issue got the unequal revenue share. But unless a corrupt judge is going to break the GoR they aren't going anywhere unless they convince 6 other schools there are landing spots.
The informed speculation I heard on the radio today is that the Big 12 would likely take Utah (to pair up with BYU) and the Arizona schools (for their basketball). Then, the B1G would take Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal. That would leave Oregon State and Washington State out in the cold. Although they did admit that state politics could play a role.
If the BIG wanted Oregon & Wash, they'd already be in. They tried to get in with USC & UCLA but got turned down. Now with the Pac12 going under, would they take them but at a half share payout? Maybe. But I doubt it'll be full share if they do take them. I highly doubt they'll take Stanford and Cal. They already have the CA market with the SoCal schools. Taking those schools dilutes what they already have. If the BIG is to expand, it wants to tap into markets and brands it doesn't have. The southeast makes more sense for them (Miami and FSU) than going back West.
I really hope Washington State doesn't get screwed. I know they probably will, but I've always felt like they were a kindred program. Also I have a good friend who's a huge WSU fan and he's going to be very sad.
Last time Gameday was at Tech, my buddy and I found the Wazzu flag and spent a decent amount of time talking to their fans. They very much sounded like us, even down to how their opinion of Washington matches our opinion of uva.
Ha, my WSU friend is a teacher at a high school whose mascot is the Huskies, and he refuses to wear any of their merch.
I had a pair of blue shorts on the other day. Not thinking I threw on an orange T shirt to run to the store. I went by a mirror and saw myself. I had to change my shirt. No way in hell I am going out in public with that color combination.
Optimistic view - an expanded mountain west with Wazzu and Oregon St could be really fun. Sort of like the FunBelt
Don't know how accurate, but ACC is looking at Oregon and Washington
SI and ESPN have also said that the ACC has "run models" (whatever that means) of adding WVU. It still doesn't add up though IMO. Why would WVU want to leave the B12 for the ACC and if the ACC starts adding teams that doesn't that give the teams that want out of the ACC a chance to side step the GoR?
What percentage of teams would have to vote to abolish the GoR? Can we just spend a couple years grabbing up some nonsense teams that need temporary homes, to stack a vote to kill GoR?
Though if we tried that, we'd probably end up with more teams voting to keep GoR because #goacc. GoR may as well be GoT for as inept as this conference is.
That SI article is just SInow and not really representative of any journalistic standards
I didn't notice that. Even real SI articles are kinda weak these days.
It's really tough fr WVU to be a geographic outlier. They don't have a national brand, so it would make sense for them to make a few mil less for play in a conference that's easier for them to recruit to.
They have little choice. They damn sure better be. The only way they can ensure survival is to expand to let in relevant brand name schools. Shit like ECU or USF won't cut it. WVU won't either. Getting those schools gives them a presence on the West coast, which could entice ESPN to increase the rights fee which is what the conference needs to stay competitive behind the BIG/SEC. Where ESPN factors in is competition with Fox/NBC/CBS. If Ore/Wsh were to join the BIG, those games would end up on Fox/NBC/CBS. With them already having USC/UCLA in the BIG, ESPN would lose all potential West Coast viewership for college football (and basketball).
The ACC really only has two choices.
1) Pursue expansion with Ore/Wsh (maybe Cal and Stanford too) to solidify themselves and try to get more cash for reasons laid out above. If you can get an additional cash influx from adding those schools, then FSU/Miami/Clem might stay and you've saved the conference.
2) Realize they are dead, let the schools out who want to go to BIG/SEC, and let the other members find a landing spot. Some schools will be SOL but dissolving it now gives everyone the best opportunity to do what's best for each's interest.
Doing nothing (or adding G5 schools) will only make things worse for every ACC school. The longer they wait on this decision, the bigger hole each school will be in.
That's a really good point. It also would limit ESPN's options for late night games.
Plus, it looks like Fox and CBS Sports have the rights to Mountain West, so ESPN couldn't even try to hope for the Mountain West takeover of the Pac-12. (My theory/prediction is that whatever's left of the Pac-12 after the P5 raids the conference will join the Mountain West, and then the MW will buy the Pac-12 name and start using that.)
Looks like the Pac-12 is trying to get a deal streaming with Apple
They werent able to get it done. Meeting again.
Arizona board of regents is meeting, and potentially moving with Colorado. They went into an executive session straight out of the gate
Couldn't happen to a better conference.
Related:
PAC-12 flairs on r/CFB have been referring to him as George Costanzakoff and the more i read about the situation the funnier it gets
That's hilarious. Literally had me laughing at my screen.