BREAKING: Oregon & Washington joining Big Ten, becoming latest schools to leave Pac-12; putting Pac-12 future in doubt, sources told @ActionNetworkHQ 👀👀👀https://t.co/FtVKNdjHuD— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) August 4, 2023
And round and round the realignment carousel goes.
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Wow. I didn't think this would happen so soon. Really hate this for Wazzou and OrSU, both of which have passionate fanbases in small markets. On the optimistic side, they could go to the mountain west and make a really fun conference.
It also just sucks to see west coast fall apart.
Finally, Fuck you Larry Scott. If you weren't so arrogant, the P12 would've had TX and OU. Then USC doesn't go to the B10 and TX/OU don't go to the SEC. We would still be trending towards 'super conferences' but we wouldn't be losing the west coast.
I really like WSU's idea to burn their own flags at every Gameday this year as a protest.
Got sent this by my WSU friend:
Edit: NSFW language
It was gonna happen within a couple of years eventually. The people in charge of the BIG want and are making a coast to coast professional sports league. What accelerated it this summer was the Pac12's utter ineptitude. Once I saw that TV bag fumble over the last month or so, I knew this was happening fast. Big12 never made sense for those schools. ACC is far too small minded. BIG is aggressive. They have the right mind set and how to approach the future of the sport.
Pac12 is dead as a power conference, or whatever the new terminology becomes.
Arizona to B12. ASU will get poached as well.
Brutal for some of those schools that Bar mentioned.
If they are taking a reduced share..reports have suggested $35-40mil/yr then they are shortsighted and stupid.
You cannot compete in the same conference against teams making almost double what you do.
Desperation is setting in and the greedy ass B1G smells blood in the water.
Disagree. The reduced shares will be temporary. Would you rather:
It's pretty funny that "they're looking at the long term over the short term" isn't automatically praised.
Nobody knows what the terms are nor for how long.
6 years is a long time to compete against OSU when you also have to figure the travel budget for these West Coast teams has to be double the other B1G teams. You can't tell me that all of a sudden in year 7 (or whenever they might get a full share) that everything just springs on like magic with no residual effects.
You're going to be Recrutinng against teams that literally have double your budget...its not tenable.
And everyone is missing the gorilla in the room here....this TV money is not going to last. ESPN is not in a good place financially...their model is fundamentally broken going forward.
Oregon has a budget? They were 19th in revenue in 2022, with this deal they'll be around 10th putting them 4th in the big ten. They project to have more revenue than UCLA and USC even getting less of the pie than those two.
Washington is top 25 revenue though were spending more than making by about 3%, the jump will put them in the MSU and Indiana range, which are currently 4th and 5th in Big Ten.
These are the top two eaners in the PAC 12 and expect to earn more in the Big ten. I think they'll be fine. Especially since instate recruiting for both just got a lot easier.
The new B10 GoR expires 2029/2030 season. Pretty reasonable assumption that Oregon would be a full member at latest by the next TV contract.
Oregon already recruits in the top 15 each year. They're already recruiting nationally, already competing head to head with Notre Dame, Alabama, OSU, etc. Their recruiting will probably stay the same. No difference here.
I'm quite confident that even with the reduced payout, OU and UW will 'profit' (revenue - costs) more in the B10 than they would have in the PAC.
I understand what you're trying to get at here, but it's not entirely true...
It's reasonable to assume that new members will get a full share if you ignore what got us here...greed.
More likely, once the new rounds of negotiations get underway and some numbers hit paper, the Full-Share institutions will decide whether there is enough money on the table to let everyone in as a full share. If they weren't at least somewhat worried about this, then why wouldn't they let them in as full-shares right away?
My suspicion is there will very likely be tense negotiations about tiered compensation based on performance.
Oregon is probably an outlier in this scenario as they have been artificially inflated by Nike money which has allowed them to punch above their weight.
The broad strokes painted about ESPN are generally (and maybe even more true) about the other broadcasters. It's just that ESPN has been the most public.
-FOX: FS1 is floundering in ratings, FS2 is all but extinct and they have both MLB and Nascar contracts that are an albatross on their neck
-NBC: they had to shutter their sports Network and probably their most valuable full-time property at this point is Premier league...also with Nascar money loser.
-CBS: CBS sports network is out there if you can find it...also have a radio network that is a zero.
So it's a pretty reasonable assumption to think when the current GoR nears expiration, that the purse strings may tighten quite a bit. No one is saying that any of these schools are going to lose money, but the grass may not be quite as green as everyone seems to be so confident of.
None of these games are on second tier networks; all of them are on major channels (just like the NFL).
The grass will always be green for the top 15ish programs. For the rest of us? I think it will level off, but I don't think the bubble will burst. Even then, these teams will have it made for the next 6 years.
That's understood. Even though its not totally accurate...some of the NBC rights games will be on Peacock (another struggling service).
But, in any case, the individual networks are part of a larger Subdivison (NBC Sports, FoxSports, Ect) that are then parts of massive conglomerates (Viacom, Universal, Disney).
And if these Sports Subdivisions were thriving financially they wouldn't be shuttering Networks and struggling to maintain consistent distribution.
So when the Exec at Universal looks at the NBCSports balance sheet and wants to know why they are paying $800 million to air one game a week and viewership is down year over year, they're gonna want to "streamline operations."
So far only the NFL has been immune to any of this and that is simply because NFL ratings dwarf everything else by a considerable margin. I think its a stretch to think that Northwestern-Oregon is going to draw the same.
Whether the next round of negotiations has tightened purses or not is kind of irrelevant. Would you rather be negotiating alongside Michigan and OSU or WSU and Cal. That is the direction of the PAC. So even if you go from $80m/year to $50m/year imagine what the hollowed out conference is getting.
The tiered issue will probably be a thing and those 6 years being behind them could permanently set you back, but thats a logical risk you have to take.
And the point of putting those games on Peacock is to get people to get Peacock so it won't be a struggling service.
$100 Million per school for media rights is a pipe dream. Less people are watching sports, college in particular, and less people are signing up for TV subscriptions
you can't analyze all 'sports' in a vacuum - viewership for nfl, nba, the SEC, March madness, women's basketball are all up. Baseball, regular season ncaa mbb are down.
B10 teams will easily get $80m+ each in tv revenue starting in 2024
Well the 2024 deal is set and they're set to get around $71 mil per school before Oregon and Washington joined. So that's not $80M and it's certainly not $100M+ when Oregon and Washington become full members.
Anyway you cut it, the floor is $70m. Assuming the B10 gets 2 teams into the 12 team playoff (very likely), same old bowl bids, March Madness Payouts, etc, they will easily hit $80m per team per year.
UCLA and USC are full share members day 1. They will roughly get 300 mil more revenue than MD and Rutgers got. One happy family.
This will sound cheesy- but its sad. it is. The Rose Bowl, the great USC football teams, the 10pm eastern start games, etc. This sucks. No major west coast geographic conference? not to mention - in terms of the Olympic sports, the pac 12 is the "SEC" but better. If people don't think this can't happen to the ACC- a lesser conference - they are smoking crack. It's sad. No more Rose Bowl as you know it. why? money.
Its not cheesy. This sucks.
It's allowing a chosen few Programs to consolidate power and money and dictate the rest of the sport to everyone else.
College football is becoming the MLB. Every year 3-4 teams have a realistic shot to win and everyone else is just going thru the motions to make it look like an actual league.
It's worked out wonderfully for baseball where every year they are setting new records for low viewership (they may get a slight bump this year, but it's unlikely to sustain).
Turning fans away by making their teams irrelevant....always a solid business strategy.
Not cheesy at all
Not cheesy in the least. I posted something similar back when it was announced that the syndicated Raycom nooner games were going away. Most folks were like ha good riddance but it just made me sad. I grew up with my formative years split between NC and VA and grew up watching those games and the ACC tourney on Friday afternoon at school and the tourney final when we got home from church. I fell in love with VT and when we got into the ACC I thought damn this is perfect.
I understand completely that money talks and bullshit walks and that these schools are doing what they have to do to survive. But godamnit we're watching so much about what we (or at least me I guess) love about this sport be slowly but surely wittled away by these corporate conglomerates that have more money than some countries and only see us, the fans, the people who actually live and breath this shit, as an income stream and props for the television production.
I'll be a Hokie till the day I die and I don't know how all this turns out, but I just hate that college football is eating itself alive right now.
I'll probably feel better once the games start lol.
PAC-12 after dark was so beautiful. I'll be a lost man without it.
Whatever conference those teams are in will still play late night (EST) games. It's a health and safety necessity for early season Arizona team games.
Nooooo but my PAC12 after dark 😭
as the dominos continue to fall, the end of the ACC grows ever nearer. I don't like the way this is all going but I also think if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. I really think this is a good sign that VT will be out of the ACC (hopefully to the SEC) before 2036. Well before.
The B1G is now 18 schools. The SEC is 16. the SEC WILL add 2 teams. If Clemson and FSU can't get out of the ACC GOR, who do they add? That's the most interesting to me. Do they go after ND ? Stanford?
18 is an awkward number. I doubt the B1G is done. Probably headed for 20 or 24, in which case, the SEC will need to add 4-8 teams. I think this is actually pretty good for us because both leagues are going to want to make moves pretty quickly and there are likely 8 viable teams in the ACC that would be interesting enough to both leagues that they can work out a way to dissolve the conference and get out of the GOR if all 8+ teams leave around the same time. I'm optimistic that VT is a valuable target for the SEC. We probably wouldn't be top two, but I don't think that matters because I think the SEC (and B1G) are going to need more than two teams. I think we're fairly comfortably top 6. So the hope is that, at minimum, the B1G goes after 2, the SEC goes after 4, and at least another two find homes in the Big XII, thus dissolving the league and nulling the GOR.
The B1G and SEC want a foot on the proverbial Twister board in Virginia. Tech and UVA are both strutting their stuff...hopefully a cat-call or two comes from it (mainly for Tech, but someone's gotta take the other girl home I guess...and those are two sick landing spots).
ODU and Liberty?
Ducks.
Edit: ECU and JMU?
Ducks a second time.
Sorry...the Ducks are already spoken for-I'll see myself out
Good dad joke! I actually expected that Ducks comment to come :).
Are you a dad?
HA...no. I've always been this way. 2x dog dad though they don't get my "jokes"
You shoulda goosed that comment forward.
If Whit Babcock didn't give Liberty and ODU oxygen with 25 scheduled games, nobody would have ever heard of those teams. Facts.
Liberty had an infamous coach and was ranked. More people know about Hugh Freeze the Falwells (and their scancdals) than the fact that VT has played Liberty.
ODU, 100% agree with. Two of their biggest moments were when they beat VT.
True - religious internet schools do have broader reach.
BIG isn't done. They might be done for now (as in this summer), but they'll be at 20 or 24 within a handful of years (2 to 3, no more than 5). I'm somewhat skeptical on the SEC adding more though. While I personally think they should because it would be unwise for them (and ESPN) to rest on their laurels as the BIG and Fox/NBC/CBS build a collegiate pro sports league, their comments seem to indicate they are content doing just that. Now they could be playing their cards close to the vest and will act when necessary, but I do think their relative silence is notable right now. It's not like their argument is without merit. They don't really need the VA or NC markets. The brands of FSU, Miami, and Clemson could have value to them but 1) They already have teams in those areas and 2) Bringing them on may be more about losing the brand to a competitor than it is just for expansion value added. So in that respect, it depends on how much ESPN is willing to get involved.
The B1G and SEC are in a game of chicken with each other when it comes to expansion. Neither really wants to be the first one to make a move to get to the next number of teams. But they've each had some good deals fall into their laps -- first Texas/OU to SEC, then USC/UCLA to B1G, and now the B1G is taking advantage of the Pac-12 firesale. If the Pac-12 had any sense of stability, they wouldn't be taking Oregon and Washington.
Need? Probably not. But want? There's a lot to be made from the subscriber rates. However, since ESPN has both the SEC and ACC, it might be a zero sum game for them if the ACC dissolves and the ACCN goes away. So
the B1G might have the upper hand in VA/NC, because they're not tied to ESPN.
For ESPN, the best situation for them might be to have one school each from NC and VA go to the SEC while another stays in the ACC, so they can charge in-market rates for both channels in those states. The B1G still has options in NC.
Perhaps there might be value to ESPN by maintaining the ACC as a basketball focused/G5 type of conference, anchored by Duke and uva? Or let the B1G take uva and pull ODU into the ACC.
This might not be good for some of the Olympic sports (mainly wrestling)
At some point when the dust settles, there's gonna be a serious discussion about what to do with Olympic sports. Football and men's basketball are the big revenue drivers. Nothing else really does. But the P2 format that the money is driving us to doesn't work for any sport that's not football and men's basketball. Travel and scheduling is just too tough for the national conferences the P2s will be. They are gonna have to separate football/mcbb from everything else with two governing bodies. Otherwise, you will only have football/mcbb and everything else won't be a scholarship sport but what survives will be like a club sport where you're paying your own way.
Well since we're already firmly down the Profit before anything else trail..why don't we just get it over with and elimate scholarships for all the non-profitbale sports?
Then we can transfer the excess scholarships to the football programs...expand them to 105. Then a
Alabama and OSU can sign 45 players every year and give everyone else even less of a chance to compete.
Whatever money we have left after that we can use to further upgrade our already opulent facilities so that the Football players can eat off of fine China imported from Japan and lockerooms decked out with Italian marble.
I'd love to think that the powers that be are going to do what's right with the Olympic sports, but everything we are seeing suggests directly the opposite.
Its not unprecedented. Johns Hopkins is in the B1G for Lacrosse for example. Notre Dame is in the ACC for Tennis (lol)- half TIC... anyway, you can have these same leagues have Olympic subset associations. Football/MBB/WBB are the only untouchables. Coastal Carolina in the ACC for baseball is not the end of the world for example. That's what will happen. UVA, Duke and UNC are hardest hit though. They may end up in Olympic leagues with prole schools in them for swimming, crew, etc.
Coastal being ACC in baseball would be pretty cool. I'm just thinking if Tech ends up in SEC where will the wrestling team go. Would the SEC allow our wrestling team to go too the Big 10 or would some SEC schools start adding wrestling teams?
The Big Ten doesn't want or need affiliate wrestling teams, but we would certainly find a home somewhere. Missouri is in the SEC and competes in the Big 12 for wrestling for instance.
ACC wrestling only has 6 programs in it so it may actually benefit that program to join a larger wrestling conference.
No more NC Stall would be nice
We don't need to do anything with Olympic Sports, we need Football to leave the NCAA and break off into it's own governance system. Olympic sports aren't broken. Football is.
What happened to "the Big Ten doesn't want to be predatory?"
I think the B10 was extending a lifeline. Reports are that the P12 was deal was going to be ~$20m/school, mostly streaming. My guess is that the B10 wasn't trying to 'poach' Oregon and Washington - rather they came to the B10, and the B10 said 'let's see if this can work for both of us.'Dumb comment. As more news is coming out, the B10 is trying not to appear predatory
, while absolutely being just that.
It's a failure that the ACC didn't at least throw out a bid if Oregon and Washington went for that low of an amount.
$35-$40m is more than acc teams are making. Why would they go to a conference for less money a voluntary enter into a 12 year contract that current members are trying to get out of?
Lol why do you even bother. Rayo is a hardcore stan for the ACC
It doesn't count as predatory if you fire the first shot, wait a while, and then put it out of its misery.
"That was a warning shot and the Ducks flew into it."
-theB1G, probably
It's not really the Big Ten's fault that the Pac-12's incompetence basically giftwrapped these two schools.
I hate all of this, and I hate some of the suggestions to "fix" this (both on here and in the media) even more than the current situation
My two cents can be summed up with:
Fuck this, and we're fucked.
This is where I am. We will remain in a fucking conference with Syracuse and BC even after 70% of the P5 changes leagues. We will still be left with those two fucking fucks.
And Wake. =^/
While Wake being a permanent game for us sucks ass and makes no sense, I don't hate them nearly as much as I hate fucking Syracuse and BC. We fucking escaped Syracuse for a couple years, but their program wouldn't fucking die, so they joined the ACC. the suck. And on cue and on brand, we haven't beaten them in football since they joined the ACC. Death and Taxes.
It is interesting to me that UVA thinks (atleast on 247) of themselves as more desirable than VT. They are ignoring the major reason behind conference expansion- football and viewers. VT has much more viewership in the Mid-Atlantic, especially the large east coast markets than UVA. Nobody is tuning into UVA field hockey or tennis matches. VT is the more prized commodity.
I think both UVA and VT are getting left out if the SEC and B1G don't expand to 24. I think both would get in if it gets to 24+ each.
I think the bigger issue is that there is significant overlap in TV markets between the Uva and VT.
Similar story with UNC and NC State. In the PAC-? you have Washington in and WSU hanging out in the breeze.
Could see how a power-hungry conference could want one and not the other.
From a football perspective, neither of us have much recent success to stand on.
Bottom line, if we're both in the P2, then we're in separate conferences.
Well, it's nice to see that the B1G didn't have to settle for just the teams that never make the playoffs...
This is all moving pretty rapidly now. To me, this seals the fate of the ACC as well. Their only opportunity to stabilize the conference was to expand and add additional schools (like Oregon/Washington) to try and increase the TV contract. I didn't like the idea, but it was literally all they had. Now there are no teams left that would substantially increase the tv contract, and even Big 12 schools are going to be in a better spot with more stability and revenue than the ACC. It's only a matter of time now before other dominoes start falling IMO - the ACC is toast along with the Pac 12.
I officially hate college football and basketball now, and the blood is all over Disney and Fox's hands.
How would you like to be Duke Hoops right now? UVA hoops? UNC Hoops? Washington is a bigger brand than you, and your brand is basically not worth anything to ESPN.
I wouldn't. I wouldn't want to be any school that isn't presently in or destined to the Big10 or SEC.
Not now they aren't, if the speculation on the deal is true Washington will make about the same over the next 7 years that ACC schools will
Can't say I didn't see this coming.
Is SDSU happy they didn't get into PAC 12 now?
Probably since they'll pay a lot less to play Oregon Sr, Wazzu, Cal, and Stanford
Four schools left behind in PAC. Sucks to be them at this point
So uh, Mountain West, you still up?
Watch the ACC add the scraps of the pac 12.
Stanford Notre Dame package deal when
PAC rebrand incoming.
This is absolutely incredible, someone is a genius!
I mean the Big 10 seems right because nobody is going to believe Big 18
How about the Big 18==D
Is that a male 18 or a standard 18?
It's fitting because what they did to decimate the PAC was a real dick move
Conference of Collegiate Kindred Spirits
I see what you did there!
Keep it simple just switch B1G to B18?
Edit: B18 fans next season.
Maybe PEN-15?
I tried to make this work with P for Pacific for like 5min before giving up.
Pacific Enhanced Northern-Ish Schools Conference.
Okay, I got it. The B1G get to keep its name, but only if they switch to a relegation league and form the Bad conference with the bottom eight. I even made them a logo.
and we call them...the Big Bad
I dunno, but when I Saw your sketch, parody lyrics to Devo popped in my head, "When a conference falls apart, you must whip it!" lol
B1G: Are we not ten?
SEC: we are Bevo
Looks like the remaining Pac teams are negotiating an alliance with the AAC. Sounds like the benefit is almost entirely to the AAC in this deal as the TV contract would be only $14M per school which would be a downgrade for remaining PAC schools but a more than double increase for AAC. AAC schools currently receive less than $6M per season.
Instead of two 10-team divisions, this is the perfect opportunity to do promo/relegation. The top 10 teams in this conference are pretty competitive.
Wash St vs USF matchup needs a title and trophy, that has to be nearly the furthest (farthest?) distance of any conference opponents. Maybe call it the Realignment Rut Trophy.
USF to WSU- 3013.9 mi- far but not the farthest...
That honor goes to Hawaii distance to few other Mountain West rivals
to USAFA- 3338 mi
to Colorado- 3335 mi
to Wyoming- 3319 mil
to New Mexico-3221 mi
barely beat out to utah state-3008 miles
Continental Realignment Rut Bowl then
Forgot all about Hawaii. Good call!
Sorry- geography nerd here (among other types of nerd)- I used to read the almanac as a kid too, lol.
Farthest. I always remember it that if you want to describe things that are far apart, it's farthest/farther
I always remember that scene from finding forrester
funnily enough, i remember the distinction from an SI article on UNC's Roy Williams wherein he he says he won't "be discussing this any farther. further." and it talked about the distinction and how of course roy williams would be the one to make it
Criminally underappreciated movie. One of my favorites.
so then what is furthest used for?
Further/furthest refers to figurative distance. You carry a concept further. You carry a sack of potatoes farther.
Figurative vs actual, got it
Rice and Tulsa are small time garbage they should add Fresno, Boise and CSU instead, and realign divisions. Kick either Temple or Charlotte as well.
Could be a scrappy conference with some interesting matchups
Tulsa is hit or miss. They did pretty well in CUSA but since the move to AAC they are middle of the road at best. They have five 10+ win seasons in the fifteen years but pretty much all before AAC. I completely agree on Rice. Not sure how they got picked up from CUSA considering they haven't topped five wins since 2014.
Temple has been really bad the last four years but from 2015-2018 they finished 7-1 in conference three of four years and won the conference title in 2016 so I don't see them going anywhere. Charlotte again, not sure why they were brought over from CUSA as they have been dreadful since moving up with only a single winning season since 2015.
So ND is playing a Bunch of AAC schools a year now uh.
That Stanford-ECU matchup....
Looks like they decided to shed some dead weight and aim for this....
I mean, this is a spicy conference. There will be a lot of
goodentertaining games (which is all I want)Absolutely agree. The football would be worth watching.
No offense, but I hope that deal is still worth less than the Apple offer of 20 mil.
Apple looking at buying ESPN btw.
That may be premature. Looks to be the opinion of an industry analyst:
https://fortune.com/2023/08/17/apple-should-buy-espn-from-disney-50-bill...
WaPo business analyst says they don't need to:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/08/18/apple-doesn-t-need-to...
Apple could buy the entire Disney corral of companies and hardly have a hiccup. Disney is bleeding $$ like a drunken sailor on shore leave in Atlantic City.