We will be playing the 10 seed in the first round...Wake or Miami. I envision us winning the first round with ease and then the 7 seed is very manageable (Pitt (not likely), FSU (not likely), NCSU (LIKELY), or UMD (Less likely than NCSU but more likely than FSU/Pitt)). Do you think we could advance past that? Playing Duke (likely), Cuse (a little less likely), or UNC (no...probably) in the quarterfinals? My ideal situation would be the following;
-VT beats Miami for the third time this season 69-55
-VT beats NCSU in a close one. Jarrell Eddie hits the gamewinner with 3.4 seconds left.
-VT beats Syracuse, who is playing like trash the past few weeks (anyone watch the GT game last night?), 58-52.
-VT beats UNC who is currently streaking and according to many, "the hottest team in America" which I say is bullspit...UVa is much hotter than they are IMO. But VT Beats UNC in an OT thriller. I mean shoot, we hung with them on March 1.
-ACC Championship. VT beats UVA who we should have beat last month. UVA had no business winning that one. Tough loss.
JJs job is on the line (according to many), I like the guy and see him getting Emelogu et al ready for the ACCs much better than last season. Yes, I know this is severe wishful thinking but I also do believe if put in these situations we could make a game out of any of these matchups. I have not really enjoyed watching us play this season, I tend to cringe a lot although last night's loss to Maryland made me chuckle because of how ironic it was. Played less bad in the first half but just completely fell apart in the second half. If we play the second 20 like we do the first 20 we would be in a lot more games. Shoot, 9-20 aint nothing!
hahahaha...hahahahahaha. Oh boy
I have a buddy who has been a hokie since birth. Family of hokies, went to VT, idolizes Vick and makes his own beer. Everytime he comes over for our biweekly Fifa matchup, he asks me if I still support the hiring/firing/JJ/Seth situation. Every single time I give the same answer, a resounding YES. Do I think Seth needed to go? Yes. He was characterized by a strive for mediocrity. He Was unable to be the coach that could take VT to the next level. Look at the years that the Hokies did well in ACC play, the ACC just wasnt good that season. He was not exceptional. He was a jerk and I thought that letting him go was the correct decision. Bravo Jim Weaver. Do I think it was handled with the sincerity it should have? No. Seth made a ton of money off the firing and we got rid of him. I'll take it. I initially thought we were going to get a big name coach. The Shaka rumors were swirling and I loved it. But then they announced James Johnson...who? Like, the same JJ that was Seth's top assistant? Interesting. If Erick Green likes him, thats good enough for me to get on board. So I decided to support this new coach.
Fast forward to JJ's sophomore season. Combined SIX ACC wins in two seasons. Likeeeee, less ACC wins than UVA had in February 2014. Do I still support him? Yes. Feel free to disagree with me, but he is an outstanding recruiter who many big name coaches around the ACC don't hesitate to praise. The kids love him. Hell, I like him. Give him another season to develop who he has brought on board, give him the support to rock Cassell. If he doesnt have a productive campaign next season, I do think I will jump off the JJ ship, but as it is now. I think he deserves another season. He took the reigns of a squad that was losing more big names than I can remember. I did not expect us to come in and win the ACC. I didn't expect us to get to the NCAAs right off the bat. I did expect us to produce what we did last season...and then some. I think we have failed that due to many different circumstances, but nonetheless, I think that James Johnson could do significantly better next season if given the support that SO many hokies fail to give him.
James Johnson, I support you. Go get 'em in the ACCs.
Comments
Were we watching the same basketball team this year?
First round we could win (Miami). Second round we could win. The rest though, no way. Dreams Rocket, dreams.
Let me remind you, winning ONE ACC tourney game would already be HALF of our total ACC wins so far this season
I has a sad :(
Good chance of us playing Miami first round which would have us playing a team (the only team) that we are 2-0 against this season. By far our best chances of the tournament at a W.
I like your optimism. I might need a pair of beer goggles to watch the same team you are describing.
Turkey, Evan, and pabst have all made quite the companions this season. Its been exciting to try and do shots for every 10 points and beers every 5. Have not been very exciting second halfs.
You didn't get to drink much this season then
Pabst is for sale.
I hate to be that girl...but its actually Jim Weaver...not Jeff...
Edit: And Jim went about the SG firing all wrong...
Ahh thanks. Wow. Do not know how I messed that one up. And I agree about the handling of it. Not done right at all, but needed to be done at least in my opinion.
Yeah I don't pretend to know much about SG but I felt he was done really dirty.
It didn't need to be like that at all. I like JJ and I hope he does well. I do believe he
deserves at least another two seasons.
I know that a lot of players and boosters realllllly didnt like him. He was a whiny coach. He got multi millions from getting fired. I dont feel bad for him. Sucky for the recruit who he was with but thats about my only emotional tie to it.
AND THEN NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
YUP!
The basketball fan in me says that we have no chance because we aren't a good team.
But the Hokies fan in me (the same part of me that thinks the Cubs have a chance every year) thinks we could be the surprise team of the tournament.
If all of this happens you'll get a tee shirt on the house.
score
I'll give him all of my tee shirts, pants and shoes if all of this happens
I'll make sure to let JJ know I have an entire wardrobe on the line
Not sure anyone in the TKP community wants to see that....
just saying...
The seedings for the tournament could change dramatically with the results of the last game.
Wake Forest technically still has two conference games left. They play Duke tonight, a loss, and then Miami on Saturday. If they win, they will be 6-12 in conference.
Miami only has Wake Forest remaining, if they win, they will be 7-11 in conference and lock up the 10th seed. With a loss they are 6-12 in conference.
Notre Dame is done and has a 6-12 conference record.
Georgia Tech is 5-12, but if they beat us they would have a 6-12 record.
Here are all the scenarios as they could play out based on this:
http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stevens/index.ssf/2014/03/acc_basketball...
As to whether we have a chance in this tournament, we could advance out of the first round. We might have a shot at the second round. I have serious doubt of this team stringing three wins in a row, especially against what should likely be a ranked opponent in the third round. This is all best case scenario. I am not drinking the Kool Aid.
That said, I still think JJ is back next season with the late season push to be competitive.
Yeah those are the scenarios I used to signify who we could potentially play. ND cant get to the 10 spot which makes me a bit sad. I would like to play the Irish again although I would take Miami for a third time any day.
I agree about first two rounds being possible but thats about it. But hell, I would consider that an accomplishment after this season.
I agree that I think JJ will be back, but it pains me to read the words "late season push" followed by "to be competitive"
Is it ideal, nope, but the last third of the season will end up being competitive. Don't confuse that term with successful. That term still alludes JJ.
Best I could do photoshopping at work.
None for me Thanks!! +1 for you though.
This kind of wishful thinking gives wishes a bad name. Sorry, but I can't see us making it past the first or second round unless we play Miami in both rounds.
You got to understand that these games will be in Greensboro, NC; spitting distance from all 4 NC schools. We got destroyed by all 4 of those schools (all at home except for Duke) and we would undoubtedly have to play at least one of them in the tournament.
The jig is up on our zone D. It may have worked well when we started it against a Pitt team with Patterson struggling, but it's not going to fool anyone anymore. Maryland showed us that last night when they just passed the ball around the perimeter until they got a wide open 3 time and time again in the second half.
Destroyed by UNC and NC State at home? We must have been watching different games. I'm not saying we would beat either of those teams, but destroyed? We hung with both of them until the final buzzer.
I am with you on this, we were by far more competitive with the North Carolina schools than much of our other ACC games this year.
Tech 77 Wake Forest 83 (6 points)
Tech 64 NC State 71 (7 points)
Tech 56 UNC 60 (4 points)
Tech 48 Duke 66 (18 points) yes destroyed
As for the jig being up on the zone, I would argue that even though Maryland hit some three's in the second half (6, 10 in total for the game), you have to hit them for it to work. Maryland still shot a miserable 31% from behind the arc in that game. They attempted 32 three pointers. They shot 40% from the field in total, were held seven points below their season average. Maryland scored 80 on us and won by 20 when we played them earlier in the season without the zone.
Last nights loss had nothing to do with defense, and everything to do with us shooting 22% in the second half and only managing a measly 18 points. We consistently failed to get the ball inside to the big men to score. There is a reason JVZ went 6 for 11 from the field and led the team in scoring with 14 points yesterday. He should have gotten 20 shots inside but we stopped working it in and were throwing the ball up from outside the lane and not hitting the shots.
The stretch that stands out to me and what ultimately led to JJ employing the zone was the four game stretch of losing to Virginia by 20, BC by 24, Maryland by 20 and Florida State by 20. Those were the blowouts.
All this said, I don't honestly expect to advance out of the second round of the ACC tournament because of our inability to score.
I'm sorry maybe destroyed was too harsh a word. Regardless, we lost to all 4 teams and 3 of those games we lost handily. Duke doesn't need to be mentioned, Wake was up by about 20 points for majority of the game until they got lazy towards the end, and we never tied or led the entire game against NCSU except for when it was 0-0. UNC we stuck around with and there could have been some calls that should have been our way, but it was still our home court and we lost. I realize these are not even the worst games from this year and this is my point, because we couldn't do it at home and we will not be playing at home in the ACC tournament.
We can't finish at the end of halftime or at the end of regulation. If you don't believe me watch the Pitt game again. We had every opportunity to win that game and we turned it over or failed to even get a shot off when we had the ball at the end of the clock.
I know you keep saying our defense is doing better and our offense hasn't, but I believe that is because of how JJ changed how we play since the Pitt game. We changed the style due to all the injuries. We play a zone to limit fouls and injuries and slow down the opposition, while we slow down the offense to half court and wind down the clock. If the opponent is getting less possessions, most likely they are going to score less points.
I'm sorry to be negative about it, but we don't have a full team or a team that is playing the kind of basketball it wants to right now and it's not going to get us far in the tournament.
Rob,
I think we need to be careful in thinking that just because our opponents shooting percentage and our opponents points against validate Coach Johnson into turning around our defense. I have seen fans toss around the idea (not necessarily you) that Coach Johnson deserves another year alone due to "turning around" our team in the last (7) games with his coaching.
What our opponents do shooting from the field is not the end all tell all statistic. To me it is a no brainer and not a surprise that our opponents shooting percentage is down verses our zone, but there are negative effects of our 2-3 zone. What we do on defense in basketball ties into our offense as well. The first is that while forcing the game to slow down for our opponent and use all of their possession clock, this in turn also limits our possessions, as well. Couple that with our offense that takes almost all of the possession clock to attempt to score, and we are only magnifying our horrid offensive efficiency, making it worse. We are getting less opportunities (our shot attempts are down the last 7 games on average vs before in man defense), and less points per possession and for a team that is already not very efficient on offense, this is bad.
With less offensive possessions and points per possession where can we generate opportunities to score? Not in turnovers. The 2-3 zone is relatively passive in nature, because the zone is designed to be packed inside the three-point arc, the defense is not looking to actively steal perimeter passes. While some passes might be intercepted, the zone is not a great way to force turnovers. Instead, the zone is designed to control the action from inside the three-point line and force several long shots. Turnovers are in fact decreasing. In the last (7) games while in all zone our turnover margin has decreased comparing it to the previous (7) games in man, from -1.8 (man) down to -7.7 (zone). We are generating less turnovers and generating less fast break opportunities (which lead to easy scores). There are several schools of thought into play here but my point is we are getting less opportunities on offense. What's a really odd stat as well is our own turnovers are up in the last (7) games (14.7) vs the previous (7) games (10.7). I kinda think we aren't able to get in any rhythm, with less opportunities on offense. Our worst TO games were vs Maryland, NC State, and PITT.
Another important stat is our opponents offensive rebounds. Usually, it is harder to rebound in a 2-3 zone then in a man defense. In our last (7) games our opponents averaged 13.3 offensive rebounds verses our previous (7) games in man at 10.0. We actually did a pretty decent job preventing Maryland from generating second chances so this number could have been worse if consistent to the previous (6) games sitting in a zone. To me, while not dictated on the stat sheet, but rather the way i was taught is that offensive rebounds for the other team are basically turnovers for us. While not an official stat, adding in offensive rebounds against to our turnover margin we are in the last (7) games -21.0 verses previous (7) games (in man ) -11.8. Again, there are several schools of thought but my point again is we are getting less offensive opportunities.
You have also pointed out a lot that we held Duke and UVA to record low offensive outputs. While I am happy at our effort (and I think there is no argument that our players are giving it all they have), in these games there were tons of uncontested shots. To me this was more Duke making Duke's offensive output look bad and UVA making UVA's shooting percentage look bad, in comparison to other teams, by simply missing open shots. Duke and UVA alone were able to almost create a wash with not only their offensive rebounds (verse our same zone) but also able to dictate match ups verses our zone leaving us unable to adjust (which is another weakness in our zone). Maryland in fact did the same thing. They were able to dictate our forwards (JVZ and Trevor Thompson) not allowing them to contest many shots, leaving Maryland to attack the paint over and over and over. We didn't adjust.
With all that said, I completely understand why Coach Johnson is playing zone the whole game. It is obviously a logical decision. We have limited players that we need to last the whole game. I just feel a 2-3 zone the whole game just magnifies our woes on offense and doesn't match us well (a horrible offensive team). We cannot get into a rhythm, we have less opportunities, getting out rebounded on defense, we are already slowing down the game on offense, we aren't efficient, etc. There are too many red flags here amongst the good (maybe we are damned if we do damned if we don't). I have always felt we need to be getting more experience in man defense for next season. The ACC is young and so are we. The only way to get better in a man to man help defense is to get the reps in. While we have all summer to do this leading to next season, to me in game reps matter the most, especially vs other young players we will be lining up against next season. I wish we would switch it up between zone and man. Next season if we continue to be an all game 2-3 zone defense i might jump out of a window, honestly. In my opinion there is nothing better then solid intense man defense to dictate game tempo and to get in the passing lanes. From my memory only 4 teams currently actively play mostly if not all 2-3 zone (Syracuse, Eastern Michigan, East Tenn St, and Southern Miss), and really historically only Syracuse and Temple (with John Chaney but that was more of a match up zone) really had any success wining with all zone and alot of that was good coaching and recruiting to fit the zone (length on the perimeter and a solid shot blocking big man)
Coach Johnson will get another year not because of the last (7) games instead just because of the timing of the AD and financial decisions. But to me next year is the crucial year. To me if we aren't in a post season tournament (at least NIT), or we aren't in the top 8-9 of the ACC then we need to part ways. Just getting above .500 wont cut it IMO. I'd rather see us move on but I am willing to go one more year and see what he has, I guess...
Please don't take this as any attack on Coach Johnson or you providing us with stats (I appreciate all the statistician work you are putting in). It is just how I feel about our defensive direction with the 2-3. I hope that it is just a temporary thing and we only see it next year: as a gimmick, to rest a couple possessions, hide players in foul trouble, against some baseline out of bounds plays, or if we ever zone press as something we can drop back into (just easier to drop from zone press to zone)
Everything you presented is spot on. Ideally I would love for us to be in man to man coverage on defense but we don't have the team for it this year. Will it make using it next year harder? Absolutely my biggest concern at this point is keeping the returning players healthy enough to be on the floor next year, especially Devin. The 2-3 definitely is the basketball equivalent of "I dare you" and is not effective against teams with good ball handlers and outside shooters.
I don't agree with JJ's decision to run slow possessions on the offensive end although I understand what its based in. I would prefer to see us taking advantage of what the opponents give us. If a 15 footer is there don't shoot a three. If a 3 footer is there ( all day against Maryland) don't throw up awful jump shots.
I also agree that if we don't have a winning record in OOC games and at least .500 record in the ACC next year JJ has to go. When I refer to the last seven games as being why JJ is getting to stay I am approaching it from the view if we had continued the rest of the season to lose by 20 plus over those seven games I think Whit would have been forced to replace him. I am not really a fan of JJ but also am realistic. Just look at my writeup about other coaching candidates. I am all in favor of Whit going to get one of them right now if he can pull it off. I just think that when it comes down to it Whit will have higher priorities this spring in fundraising to deal with a coaching search.
And in JJ's defense, in almost every interview I have heard from him since we switched to the zone he has stated that its not the basketball that he wants the team to play but its the basketball they have to play right now. JJ is a run and gun guy but doesn't have the runners or gunners to do it this season. Smiths injury was devastating in that respect on top of Mueller sitting out but the silver lining is that I don't know if Devin gets his confidence to where it is if he didn't get all these minutes.
If it weren't for a horrible offensive foul call on Eddie we probably would've beat UNC and we played NC State close. Also we only lost to Wake by 6 although they lead by double digits most of the game before Tech went on a late run.
This thread:
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