As an undergrad, I'd sit at home and tell myself it was okay that I didn't go anywhere for spring break because March Madness was happening. Now that I'm out of college, nothing could possibly get in the way of my absurdly high basketball viewing habits.
We haven't talked about the conference (basketball-wise) on the website much, but given that the "BRAND NEW, BIGGER AND BETTER ACC TOURNAMENT" starts today I figured that there was no better time to write about it than now.
Well that, and I wanted to write about winning basketball teams once this season.
I ranked each of the 15 teams in the tournament by how high I think their chances are to win the thing.
15. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-21, 2-16)
The story of their season: I'm not going to talk about it.
Do they have "a guy"? I said that I wasn't going to talk about it.
Can they make a ru-hahahahaha:
Odds to win: 8,407,098-1. Just kidding, they're only 500-1, probably because Vegas forgot that they were in the conference and threw an arbitrarily high number beside them at the last minute.
14. Boston College (8-23, 4-14)
The story of their season: Despite their record, 15 of their 23 losses have come by 10 points or less, including overtime losses to both Providence and Notre Dame. The flip side to that coin is their other 8 losses have come by an average of 17.9 points, meaning that they either get blown out, or keep it really tight and still lose.
Do they have "a guy"? Remember Olivier Hanlan? The guy who scored the most points by a freshman in ACC tournament history last year, with 41 points against Georgia Tech? The guy who wowed all 38 people watching across the country? Yeah, he counts as a guy.
Can they make a run? If by run you mean have a chance at upending, you guessed it, Georgia Tech in round one, then yes. If by run you mean get any further than that, then no. Actually let me rephrase; god no.
Odds to win: 500-1. Wait, they have the same odds as Tech? That's just not right.
13. Georgia Tech (15-16, 6-12)
The story of their season: The Yellow Jackets seemed destined for the 13-seed a week ago before improbably beating Syracuse and then not-improbably beating Virginia Tech to end the year and finish 11th. I've only watched them once, so I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on Georgia Tech basketball (I already pretend to be an expert on one disappointing Tech team), but the Jackets seem to be the same team that they've been for most of the decade. They're long, athletic, decently gifted defensively, but have pretty big holes on the offensive end. If not for the 2006-07 team with Thaddeus Young and Javaris Crittenton, and the 2009-10 squad with Derrick Favors and Iman Shumpert, you could tell me that the Yellow Jackets have used the same rotation of guys for 10 years and I wouldn't second guess it.
Do they have "a guy"? No. That's why they're a .500 team as opposed to a 20-win team.
Can they make a run? Well, they beat Syracuse...but so has everyone, amirite?
Odds to win: 250-1
12. Notre Dame (15-16, 6-12)
The story of their season: Remember back in October when everyone thought the ACC was going to be a super conference? The league added perennial power Syracuse, a Pitt team that's normally in the national conversation (note: I didn't say national title conversation), and Notre Dame, a team that had made the tournament in nine out of Mike Brey's 13 seasons. That makes for a pretty solid conference, right? Well, the Irish didn't hold up their end of the deal, thanks in large part to losing Jerian Grant in December to an academic issue. Largely due to excellent coaching, Notre Dame has kept it close, but they're just not that good.
Do they have "a guy"? Let me put it this way, Jerian Grant is still listed as their leading scorer on ESPN.com.
Can they make a run? Would I be shocked if they made the quarterfinals? No, they have shown that they can beat (or at least compete with) both Wake and Pitt, but I don't think it happens.
Odds to win: 100-1 (man...being Notre Dame must be nice, right?)
11. Wake Forest (16-15, 6-12):
The story of their season: When you Google "Jeff Bzdelik" these are the first three auto completes:
So yeah, that's basically how this season has gone in Winston-Salem this year (but hey, they beat Duke!).
Do they have "a guy"? Ehhhhh kind of? Travis McKie is in the middle of his worst season as a Deac, but has still shown flashes of the guy that averaged 16 points and 7 boards two years ago.
(Did the win for the most boring, uninformative capsule that you've ever read? You're welcome.)
Can they make a run? Wouldn't that be a Wake fan's nightmare? They've wanted to fire Bzdelik for three years, and if he makes a mini run in the tournament after also beating Duke... Do you hear that? Out in the distance... It sounds like a "4 more years" chant!
Not to worry, Wake's ceiling is likely a first round win over Notre Dame.
Odds to win: 500-1
10. Miami (16-15, 7-11)
The story of their season: This was a team that lost to St. Francis Brooklyn at home their first game of the season. Not going to lie, I had to look them up to make sure that they were Division I. This is also a team that lost to Virginia Tech twice. Somehow, though, they ended up winning seven conference games, proving that Jim Larranaga is some sort of demigod.
Do they have "a guy"? They do. His name is Jim Larranaga, and he has become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.
Can they make a run? I would normally say no, but they play Tech and then NC State, a team that the Canes beat by 15 two weeks ago. Anything is possible, but I'd still wager that TJ Warren sets them ablaze in round two.
Odds to win:66-1
9. Florida State (18-12, 9-9)
The story of their season: The Noles started hot, beating VCU and taking Michigan down to the wire in an early-season tournament. Since then they haven't quite been able to put it all together, and are considered by pundits as off the bubble. Given that their best conference win is at Pittsburgh, the bracketologists may be right on this one.
Do they have "a guy"? No. They have a coach that looks like Bunny Colvin from The Wire, which makes Twitter fun when they play, but that's about it.
Can they make a run? If they survive their first game (a second round matchup against Maryland), they have to play Virginia. Again, I'm going to say no.
Odds to win: 40-1
8. Pittsburgh (23-8, 11-7)
The story of their season: The Panthers made a very interesting run during the regular season by being (in my estimation) the mosted joked about 18-2 team of all time. All of the criticism may have been warranted, however, as Pitt finished the season 5-6, with four of those wins coming in overtime. They'll make the big dance, but it's your fault if you pick them.
Do they have "a guy"? Lamar Patterson. Patterson leads the team in both points and assists and is second on the team in rebounds. He was hurt during that sub-.500 stretch (as many Tech fans remember), but looks like he has come around. In the last game of the season, he was able to outduel Clemson's K.J. McDaniels (another "guy"), scoring 30 points in an overtime win. He's Pitt's only hope.
Can they make a run? No. Call me a hater all you want, but let's just say that I filled out an ACC Tournament bracket (yeah, I know...it's a disease), and seriously considered a Wake-over-Pitt upset.
Odds to win:12-1
7. Maryland (17-14, 9-9)
The story of their season: Maybe I'm crazy, but I think Maryland is better than their record. They picked up a win over Virginia on Saturday, and played both Syracuse and Duke to one-possession games. Should it be concerning that they had a very easy conference schedule (only played UNC, Duke, and Syracuse once) and only went 9-9? Absolutely! But I'm talking positives here.
Do they have "a guy"? I'm not sure? They have four guys who average double digit points and Dez Wells has been the go-to guy for most of the year. However, it looks like shooting guard Seth Allen is really coming on. He missed almost all of non-conference play with a foot injury, but has scored 20 points in three out of his last four games. When push comes to shove, can one guy step up in crunch time?
Can they make a run? Would it surprise anyone if Maryland, in their last ACC Tournament ever (as Mike Gminski will remind us roughly three thousand times over the next five days), put together a run similar to last season's? Also, would it surprise anyone if John Swofford couldn't even properly fix his own tournament to guarantee a Terps opening round loss?
Odds to win: 40-1
6. Clemson (19-11, 10-8)
The story of their season: Clemson is the team that I irrationally like more than others. I'm not sure why I like them, their only good win was over a reeling Duke team that was still figuring themselves out. After that, the Tigers were 0-5 against the rest of the teams seeded higher than them (UNC, Virginia, Syracuse, Pitt). If anything it's because their defense gives up 57.6 points a game and they've got enough athletes to get out and run. I remember thinking last year that head coach Brad Brownell looked like a guy out of his depths, but for the most part he's proven me wrong this year.
Do they have "a guy"? Oh hell yeah. K.J. McDaniels is a machine that leads Clemson in both points and rebounds per game. That dude can go toe-to-toe with any other great scorer in the conference, but as opposed to most of them (cough, Jabari, cough) he can get after it on both offense and defense.
Can they make a run? If they were seeded to play anyone but Duke in the quarterfinals, I would say definitely. I'm just not not sure that they can bottle up the Blue Devils right now, so I'm predicting a quarterfinal exit for the Tigers.
Odds to win: 40-1
5. North Carolina State (19-12, 9-9)
The story of their season: Look, I know this sounds crazy. The Wolfpack are just so...well they're just so Pack-like. Throughout the entire season there were only two things that you could guarantee every night: 1) that T.J. Warren was going to get his points, and 2) that they were going to have the least likeable coach on the floor. Anything else was a crapshoot. One-point losses to Syracuse and Carolina, 30-point losses to Duke and Virginia, if you said you knew how State was going to play game-to-game you'd be lying.
Do they have "a guy"? They don't have a guy, they have THE guy. ACC Player of the Year T.J. Warren, you may know him as the dude who scorched Pittsburgh and Boston College for 40 points each in his last two games. If you needed to rely on one guy in this tournament, Warren would be a pretty safe choice.
Can they make a run? In all honesty, it's laid out perfectly for them. Sure, they lost to probable opponent Miami less than two weeks ago, but do we really think that a young Miami bunch can win multiple ACC Tournament games? And then they'd play Syracuse, a team that can be especially vulnerable when their opponents are sinking the shots that the zone gives them (insert Warren). Sign me up for a Duke-State semi-final. The only thing that'd make that game more fun would be if Gottfried and Mike Krzyzewski sparred for three rounds at halftime (Coach K gets the knockout in two).
Odds to win:50-1
4. Syracuse (27-4, 14-4)
The story of their season: Syracuse started 25-0, but fell back down to earth a little bit by losing four out of their last six. Don't get me wrong, I think the Orange are really good, I just don't think they'll win the tournament. I'm not concerned with the four losses, the Boston College game was a look ahead to Duke, the Duke game was close, Virginia was simply the better team (the only concerning loss), and by the Georgia Tech game Syracuse had nothing to play for. Call me an ACC homer, but I just can't see Syracuse beating State, Duke, and North Carolina in a row. Actually, I'm pretty sure Swofford would just nuke Greensboro before that happens.
Do they have "a guy"? I guess. C.J. Fair is a solid scorer, but he can also go cold, and I'm talking Syracuse, NY in January cold. I like Tyler Ennis a whole lot, but Fair's going to be the guy they'll go to.
Can they make a run? Of course. They're the two-seed for a reason, and they could make me look incredibly stupid with a few wins.
Odds to win: 3-1
3. Virginia (25-6, 16-2)
The story of their season: Do you live in the state of Virginia? Then you know the story. Tony Bennett and his balanced team of traveling defenders wowed the hearts of ACC fans everywhere, as they dominated one of the easiest schedules in the conference (only one game against each of the other top seven seeds).
Do they have "a guy"? NO. Everyone loves how "balanced" the Cavaliers are, and that it's awesome that they only have two guys who average over 10 points a game. Do you know what that also could mean? Maybe they're just bad offensively? Scratch that, THEY ARE BAD OFFENSIVELY!! I don't care what Ken Pomeroy's stupid rankings say, I've never seen them look good on offense, and the Marcolini Eye Test is the only thing that matters around here. Sure the pack-line defense works amazingly well, but I think teams that can score with even partial effectiveness against it will give the Wahoos trouble. That means they won't be able to pull away, and what happens if they're down five with 90 seconds to go? They don't have that dependable guy who can give them buckets in the lean minutes of a game.
Can they make a run? They're the one-seed, so the regular season says that they're the most likely team to make one.
Odds to win: 2-1
2. North Carolina (23-8, 13-5)
The story of their season: Everyone left the Tar Heels for dead after they lost three out of their first four ACC games and then they, you know, won 12 in a row. This is your run-of-the-mill Carolina team stacked with an annoyingly high amount of McDonald's All-Americans who can beat anyone. No, seriously, they beat Louisville, Michigan State, Kentucky and Duke. I meant it when I said anyone.
Do they have "a guy"? Yes, the Marvin Williams impersonator himself, James Michael McAdoo. Just kidding, Marcus Paige has been incredible during the win streak. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 2012 Kendall Marshall tournament performance.
Can they make a run? If the last month and a half means anything, then absolutely.
Odds to win:7-1
(I can't believe I made it through that entire section without making a P.J. Hairston joke. Is this what growing up is like?)
1. Duke (24-7, 13-5)
The story of their season: These guys are good, and the thing is I think they know it. The Blue Devils have two dominant scorers in Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood. Not only that, but Duke's surrounded them with shooters who can light it up from deep. At times they've shown some youthful disinterest (losses to Notre Dame and Wake), but they're the only team to pick up wins over all of the other three top seeds (albeit all at home, but still). Add that to the fact that getting the 3-seed actually prevents them from playing "rivals" Maryland and NC State in their first game, it looks like things worked out even better for the Blue Devils.
Do they have "a guy"? They do, his name is Jabari Parker, and I think he is going to go on a run that could have him angling to be the first pick in the NBA draft (especially if Kansas' Joel Embiid decides to return for his sophomore year). I'm thinking he averages a 25 and 12 during Duke's three game run on their way to the championship.
Can they make a run? They're insanely talented, engaged, and hungry. Well, that and they have four guys that shoot threes at over a 40% clip. I think these guys have the opportunity to roll into the final with hot shooting and a heavy dose of Jabari.
Odds to win: 2-1
First Round: Wake 72-Notre Dame 65, Miami 70-Virginia Tech 52, Boston College 67-Georgia Tech 61.
Second Round: Maryland 68-Florida State 65, Pittsburgh 67-Wake 64, NC State 75-Miami 67, Clemson 75-Boston College
Quarterfinals: Virginia 62-Maryland 55, North Carolina 80-Pittsburgh 67, NC State 73-Syracuse 71, Duke 75-Clemson 70.
Semifinals: North Carolina 70-Virginia 69, Duke 83-NC State 72
Final: Duke 82, North Carolina 77
Comments
Great write up. I especially love the part where the Hoos are "terrible offensively."
I just hope the boo-Hoos lose in the very first round.
That'd be so satisfying.
I don't know which one will be better: them losing the first game of the ACC or the first game of the dance. Can't decide.
Look at the bracket the ACC posted and find out what's wrong with it, I doubt anybody wants everyday to be Wednesday #goACC
It's gonna be tough to get all these games in on Wednesdays.
Another great summary. Thanks Brian. I think you answered your own question about why you like Clemson in how you discussed their top player. Sounds like you have court crush which spills over on the team. I agree with you that I think Jabari Parker will be the MAN during this tournament, especially after getting "snubbed" by the ACC voters on Player of the Year. Warren deserved it but that's not how it was seen at Duke. I think Parker comes in a little angry and lights up the ACC to lead Duke to the win.
I like your prediction on the UNC-UVA game because I think UVA will fall flat on free throws at the end of one of these games to lose. They shoot only 65% as a team from the charity stripe which should concern Tony Bennett unless he gets the ball in Brogdon's hands on every possession. He is shooting better than 90% from the stripe.
I think one of the best games to watch in this tournament might be the Maryland vs Florida State game as that has the potential to come down to the last second. Florida State with Miller and Thomas will frequently penetrate the lane against the Terps, creating openings for Okaro White to score. Maryland will employ their guards as well with Dez Wells leading the way.
No way Miami puts up seventy against Tech. Their season average is 61.7 (341st out of 345 NCAA Division I teams) Do I think Jim Larranaga will have some twists up his sleeve after losing to Tech twice this season? Absolutely. Do I think Tech makes it past Miami? Its going to come down to who shoots worse. The better shooting team (albeit probably still a miserable number) will likely win this game. I think a critical aspect to this game may be if Larranaga takes a page from VCU and Duke to play full court press defense early on to give his team momentum. If Tech falls apart like it did in those games then Miami wins by double digits. If they break it early than it comes down to the wire.
Miami's averaged 68.3 points a game in their last eight. I wouldn't put it past them to put up 70. Also, personally I think it's pointless to press Tech because they're likely to turn it over in the half-court anyway. Miami wins by 20 today: the rotation will be at either 6 or 7 guys whose legs look dead already.
After seeing this write up in the Washington Post you may be correct:
While not surprised by Raines or Smith, I thought that Barksdale was past his injury and hadn't heard anything about Wood having the flu. Team is essentially down to eight players with this news so realistically that's the 6 rotation you mentioned. Barksdale not playing will be a big deal.
CJ was still swollen as of a couple days ago, he is definitely done. Hopefully he recovers during the offseason as I think he was one of the better all around players this year and will probably be a starter next year. Smith definitely won't play, don't even know why they have him as questionable. I believe he is healthy, they just don't want to risk him getting hurt anymore. The name I'm surprised to not see up here is Emelogu as he still has a pretty bad limp and I'd imagine is just out there gutting it out at this point.
I know I'm going to killed for this, but I actually like the make -up of the UVA team. They don't play like a typical boo-hoo team. It's like some fairy brushed them with a little dose of the lunch pail mentality and the starting 5 got it. To be quite honest, they play like the old Va Tech teams that would just grind it out. (The Tech team that lost to Indy St in 1980). Be honest here, we wish our team could play like them. I say UVA loses to Duke in the finals but last minute 3.
That's definitely a fair assessment, but to me the vast majority of teams that succeed in conference tournaments/the big dance have a guy that they can rely on to score if needed. I don't buy either Harris or Brogdon as that guy.
I agree. Unless Brogdon is at the free throw line late and gets a dozen freebies, I don't see him as the guy that is going to drop 30 points to save the Hoo's.
I'm with you I feel like that is why g-town, wisconsin, uva etc always dissapoint in the tourney; they can't score when they need to, and their style of play keeps a lot of teams they play in the game with their morbid pace
I would agree that they will not be successful in the NCAA tourney, unless there 3 point shooters get hot at the same time because there defense is outstanding. But the odds of that happening are slim at best. I say they probably win the 1st game in the NCAA and they get destroyed by a hot shooting team that forces them out of comfort zone.
The first hoop-ball tourney game results are in:
All I know is that if we beat someone, it ruins their year at this point. So Ha, freakin, Ha. Lets win em all.
Well it is finally over and it ended as it usually did this year, missed free throws and shots down the stretch. Now, the question will be, who is the next coach?
Better question does he survive to year 3 of his contract.
This thought just came into my mind, why, with 8 seconds to go in the game, down by 1 point, is Joey V. on the floor. He would be the last guy I would have on the floor. At 37% free throw shooting, he is way too much of a liability. And that is called coaching.
Trust. They trust Joey to execute the proper play because that's what he does. He may not be the most skilled and obviously not the best free throw shooter, but he executes plays. Trevor, just isn't there yet even though he is pretty much JJ's baby.
It was great to see Maryland exit the ACC Tournament first round on a dunk with .4 seconds left in the game. Just a great way for them to go out. Now for LOLUVA to get bounced first round and all will be closer to right with basketball.
Syracuse just had 5 opportunities to make a basket at the end of the game and finally Fair stepped out of bounds. Looks like NC State is moving on and Syracuse is going home empty handed in the ACC this year.
That makes me happy.