VT first in the nation in Bill C's Returning ProductionRatings

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For a few years now, I've been attempting to expand how we measure returning production. The formula I have created shifts with each new year of data and has had to shift a ton with the rising number of transfers. But the gist remains the same: High or low returning production percentages correlate well with improvement and regression. They might not guarantee a good or bad team, but they can still tell us a lot.

VT is first overall, first in offensive talent, and 12th in defensive talent.

In other news, there are still seats available on the hype train if you want to hop on.

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An excerpt about how transfers factor in:

With the explosion in use of the transfer portal in recent years, I had to make some changes to the way transfers are accounted for in the SP+ projections. They now show up in both the returning production and recruiting portions referenced above.

Returning production: Quite crudely, if a player transfers from one FBS school to another, I mash his production from his previous team into the numerator and denominator for his new team. So if your quarterback leaves, and you bring in a transfer who was starting somewhere else, that dampens the overall blow of your QB leaving significantly.

Take Florida State, for instance. The Seminoles lost Jordan Travis to expired eligibility and saw second-stringer Tate Rodemaker enter the transfer portal. That duo accounted for about 93% of FSU's passing yards in 2023, but because Mike Norvell earned a commitment from Oregon State's DJ Uiagalelei, his 2,638 passing yards are now plugged into both sides of the equation, and FSU's "returns" 49% of its passing yardage.

Looking at last years list it was hit or miss if returning production was a good thing. I think it is here, but there is a whole offseason for teams to study our offense so we'll see how that works for us this coming season.

but there is a whole offseason for teams to study our offense so we'll see how that works for us this coming season.

It could be possible that we don't start the season with the exact same offense we used last season. I'm pretty sure *checks notes* that we are allowed to make changes in the offseason. Can't say I've ever seen that in O&M before, but maybe we're gonna get nuts.

Deposit whiskey, receive wisdom.

I mean I hope the players get better which would allow us to do more (Drones passing over the middle into tight spaces). I don't think the offense is going to change a lot because it worked by making LBs make bad decisions. I don't think they'll magically make the right decision on the plays but they might not get as far out of position and cut down on our yards per play. It's just a worry of mine that teams that have more tape have a chance to do more damage.

I don't disagree with you, I think my tongue-in-cheek response was meant to imply that, while I wouldn't expect (or desire) a major change to our offense, there's no reason we can't insert wrinkles and packages to mix things up. They have time to study last year's film, but so do we, and we can identify where defenses might try to attack us and implement changes to exploit that. Even with largely the same personnel, we can still run the same offense with new wrinkles.

In other words, just because they can study what we did last year doesn't mean we have to do all of the exact same things in the exact same ways this year.

Deposit whiskey, receive wisdom.

Yeah, I was really happy for Bowen to have the season he had. But doing it one season and then doing it multiple seasons is tough. I am excited to see him succeed but that doesn't mean he will. I am hopefully, I think he isn't stuck to his ways and will take and look for input to do the best job possible.

Man we really are broken. If the assumption is "flash in the pan," rather than actual development and growth that says something.

I know you're just being cautious and I completely agree but it certainly is telling

I'm still figuring this out.

I dont think this as broken but just the nature of sports. I would bet that a good chunk of the NBA and dleague could put up 25 points in an NBA game. But most of them can't do it every night. Some couldn't do it twice. It's just how sports work. And it's not even luck that you get there either. It's competitive and hard.

this would be revolutionary and unprecedented for a Virginia Tech offense. I hope it happens too

21st century QBs Undefeated vs UVA:
MV7, MV5, LT3, Grant Wells, Braxton Burmeister, Ryan Willis, Josh Jackson, Jerod Evans, Michael Brewer, Tyrod Taylor, Sean Glennon, and Grant Noel. That's right, UVA. You couldn't beat Grant Noel.

16-0

Pain is Temporary, Chicks Dig Scars
Glory is Forever, Let's Go Hokies!!

...there are still seats available on the hype train if you want to hop on.

WOO WOO!

"Yes I am going to have favorites. My favorites are high production and low maintenance players, coaches, and staff." - JMFF

If I counted right 7 of our opponents are in the top 50 and 4 in the top 25. But don't let that stop the Hype Train #allaboard!!!!!!

"Don't go to, go through"

We like to be a little selective with which facts we entertain.

Yes but if we beat those 7 last year then this year we should beat them by more!

Gotta lay down more hype track

A decade on TKP and it's been time well spent.

Ah good ol Wallace and Gromit

"The Big Ten is always using excuses to cancel games with us. First Wisconsin. Then Wisconsin. After that, Wisconsin. The subsequent cancellation with Wisconsin comes to mind too. Now Penn State. What's next? Wisconsin?" -HorseOnATreadmill