Essentially, the two most powerful conferences on the planet told everyone else to step aside. They're going to figure out the future of college athletics themselves. They're done waiting for Congressional intervention or NCAA action.
The future of college athletics will be at least influenced -- but probably dictated -- by the SEC and Big Ten. They have most of the money, talent, recruiting, facilities and brands at their disposal.
Just bringing college athletics closer to the brink.
At a certain point, I'm not sure I care anymore.
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If VT gets left out (which I fear they will), it will be hard for me to maintain interest anymore. Not sure if I don't want to see this happen at all (which now seems inevitable) or want to risk seeing it happen with VT on the outside in the slight hope that we make the cut.
I'm more and more coming around to the idea that I hope VT does get left out. The P2 are going to become pro leagues. I have no interest in that. I don't care about the NFL, and I wouldn't care about the NFL farm league.
I truly believe that the teams that get left out will have enough name recognition and fan interest to garner some kind of TV deal. And Saturdays in Blacksburg are never bad. I think there'd be a decent chance that the whole CFB experience might become more pleasurable for folks who can get past never competing for the CFP.
I do acknowledge that getting left out will have downstream affects on the rest of our athletic department. That, I'm not happy about.
Honestly, it resets everything. We have to rethink the conferences because we can't travel to California if we don't make P5 money, for any sports. Maybe we get back to regional sports. Also who says we wouldn't compete for the CFP, the FCS has had playoffs for years. Who knows what the FBS would actually do. We could compete for an NCAA championship, unlike the Big Ten and SEC.
This might be a death blow to the NCAA, it might be what the sport needs (actual management) or it could be something completely new.
I'm with you. I'd much rather VT football play in a regional league against schools that are geographically relevant. It would be a financial hit but I think our fan base will weather the storm.
Regardless, I'll keep donating and buying season tickets.
Go Hokies
A lot of people are going to lose interest.
It's what the idiot TV Executives that are really pulling the strings here don't get. Alabama makes money today, yes, but watching Alabama vs. OSU for the 6th straight year is going to lead to a net loss of viewers.
College football fans are largely different than pro fans. They aren't just going to shift allegiances and go buy shitty Buckeye gear just because they want to root for someone. They don't give a fuck about watching Oregon vs. Rutgers and they aren't gonna shell out money for a Streaming service (which is coming soon) just to have the opportunity to watch shit matchups like that instead of ones that matter like Ore-Ore. St.
If or when VT gets left out, I (and I suspect many other VT fans) are going to consume less CFB..not more. Then add all the fans of the other 40 or so teams that will be on the outside looking in. Even among the "in" teams...there is lots of fan fatigue. I live in the heart of Gator Country and while I'll fully admit it's far from a scientific proof, I know many season ticket holders who aren't renewing and others who are fatigued by the constant push to give more to NIL.
This train has long ago since left the station and led us into what appears inevitable now.
Mark my words....in 15 years, overall interest, ratings and revenue in College Football will be down and ESPN will be drowning in these TV contracts for games nobody cares to watch. Pushing away fans to chase short-term profits...always a sound business plan.
We dont have to wait 15 years for ESPN to drowned in the contracts, they already are. They have been shedding people for the past decade it feels like. They don't have great numbers and income stream relied largely on cable subscriptions.
I mean hell, the regional sports networks already went under last year with Amazon needing to bail out Bally Sports last month. And that's for NBA, NHL, and MLB broadcasts.
College sports get ratings because it's something that everyone can follow and cheer for on a local level and everyone thinks they have a chance. It is European soccer in the US.
Doing this will kill it. And it will kill it faster than anyone could possibly imagine.
Who is this everyone who thinks they have a chance, only like 12 teams have a chance.
Delusional fans like me
I thought we had a chance in 2000.
I still sort of do.
But if the $EC and B1G split off, VT will be in the college series, not the semi-pro series. And maybe they SHOULD be separate.
If the P2 split off, I'd likely never watch them. Maybe their championship game.
But I'd still watch VT sports, and VT would have a better chance if they took out the money advantage that the top teams of the P2 enjoy (and put those in a different league). Honestly, I don't think I'd care all that much.
It doesn't matter, even if you take out the money advantage, college football will still have an uneven playing field as long as the current talent acquisition method is in play. The draft and the salary cap are the two mechanisms which make the current level of parity in the NFL possible. If NFL teams were sourcing incoming talent via popularity contests, it would still be an uneven playing field. Imagine if the Patriots (back in the Brady/Belichick days) had their pick of college players, too, and everybody else had to take what they didn't want.
College football is migrating to a place where the money differences are just too great.
Sure, there has always been a popularity (and money) advantage, but there was always a "you're telling me we have a chance" aspect to it, even if it was mostly illusory.
I will add another plug for this:
I WOULD maintain interest (as I'm sure most colleges left out would) if there was a promotion and relegation system. That keeps my delusion of having a chance to compete alive
Promotion/relegation would be cool if the money got augmented.
But it's truly hard to compete with teams with a much higher budget for the team and to pay the players with. Hence, the "professional" label.
Will never happen, but there is already a huge financial gap between perennial Tier 1 soccer teams and their lower table/tier 2, 3 counterparts even with revenue bumps for going up leagues. It has been and will be that way for "college" football going forward as well.
Would be nice to get this implemented and maybe give the Bamas, UGA, OSU, Michigan's of the world like 5 years before they're even eligible to be relegated and then since college is supposed to have limited eligibility time line, maybe give Playoff appearances/conference championships a year or two of safety before they'd be eligible to be relegated.
Would keep the top 15-20 programs from ever having to be worried about getting relegated, but would give the next tier something to play for.
This is the only way I'll stay engaged if this split happens and VT is left out of the initial grab.
My question is why does VT, who has at least been relevant in football in the last 20 years get left out, when Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois, Vanderbilt, etc. get a free pass? When's the last time any of them was a tough win for any team with a pulse? Arkansas and Miss St. have had a decent season here and there, but nothing sustained. Why do all the bottom-tier SEC and Big 10 schools automatically get ushered into the Power 2 based on regional rivalries from 100 years ago?
If they're going to blow up college football, blow it all the way up. Take the top 40 football teams and kick everyone else to the curb no matter what conference they were/are in. This works better with promotion/relegation, but that probably won't happen because no one in the top tier wants to risk losing that status and money.
You more or less answered your own question there. The TV contracts are signed...nobody in the B1G or SEC is going to leave voluntarily and if one of them were to try and remove a team like Vanderbilt there would be an immediate lawsuit that would be more or less indefensible.
Relegation is an interesting idea, but the same problem remains--Vandy, Miss St., Purdue..ect are gonna vote down any such proposal and sue the second they got overruled.
It's not logical or fair that consistently less competitive teams essentially get to ride coattails into profit. But nothing is really fair or logical in "new CFB"--NIL and Realignment are all part of the same shitshow that I think the vast majority of us are going to look back on and wonder why we completely screwed over a great (but flawed) sport to create a profit-driven monopoly run by TV Networks.
Even better, a large amount of us let ourselves really believe that this whole process of NIL and Transfer Portal was ever about betterment for college athletes.
This is the result of the sport refusing to have centralized authority for the last 150 years.
Now, there will be centralized authority. Unfortunately, there will be a conflict of interest.
And there always was.
So much to unpack (and dispute) in that first paragraph alone.
Was that written by a SEC fanboy or something? Seriously, the two most powerful conferences on the planet? Do they really think the freaking SEC is more powerful than the National/American Football Conferences in the NFL, or the Eastern/Western Conferences in the NBA? The SEC's biggest markets are Tuscaloosa and Knoxville and Athens. The only reason any sports fans from places like Houston, Atlanta and Philadelphia care about those backwater burgs are because they care about college football in general. Flip them the bird and tell their college teams to pound sand and you're going to antagonize the sports fans who actually have the money and are essential for the success of the SEC and Big 10.
No, they're going to figure out the rules for ~30 of the several hundred major colleges throughout the US. And they can be "done with" waiting for Congressional Intervention, but that doesn't mean it's not coming. And they may not like it.
I think if they actually step aside with just the two conferences it should be the death of both of those conferences.
A) No other conference outside their Super 2 will schedule them. That means they play each other only.
B) ESPN and CBS might use the excuse to cancel their bloated contracts that they are already overpaying for. They signed to carry the SEC and B1G rights playing a conference slate against other NCAA teams. Then they are left holding the bag.
C) As already stated, the interest level will drastically fall off.
Or they go to espn/fox as one entity which end their contracts and espn/fox doesn't pay up for a new one. (that is pac 12 stupidity but it could happen)
True, but other teams will have the temptation to play them for the status/money.
They might play exhibition games against them because it might not count for record if they are in a different league
Yes, unfortunately other teams will 100% schedule games with them. Which sucks. But they will still do it- 100%
This is the main point. When the rest of the country doesn't get a game counting towards their schedule why play? The NCAA will say any game against the P2 does not count towards your win-loss record and does not count towards bowl or playoff eligibility. So then why play?
You will only be wasting a game on an exhibition that counts for exactly zero.
$$$$$$$ They are not playing many teams in the P5 now. Would USCe give up their rivalry with Clemson, or would both want to play it for bragging rights if it does not count? NW School of Dermatology will still take $2M to go to 'Bama and lose.
I would love to say they are smart enough to realize that as a collective, all the other teams would wield considerable power.
I'm sad to say I don't think they're smart enough to pull it off.
Welp, so much for March Madness if this happens.
Yeah what will we do without the B1G and all their national titles? Can't imagine March Madness without Izzo losing in the Elite 8 or final four every other year /s
In all seriousness it would make the tournament lesser than it currently is.
Disagree. There's already plenty of parity across the sport that missing a half-dozen legit programs wont make the slightest dent in the watchability of the tourney. Let them leave.
Awesome. best news in a while. Fuck them both. They can choke on their unlimited billions bubble from ESPN that will in fact burst. Probably sooner than later. Fuck every school in those conferences. Leave. Bye.
I know it will never happen, but in my dream world all the schools say fuck TV contracts, and broadcast their own games online. Charge a per game rate and a season rate for access. Have Roth and Burnop simulcast play-by-play and color for the broadcast and radio.
not fair to the other schools we've got the GOATs locked down
If they form a super league, I hope we and the other schools in the ACC B12 and G5 tell them to go fuck themselves.
I really don't think 20 large brands/fanbases can stand on their own and make even close to the same amount of money as now. (And when you take out Vandy, Miss St, Ole Miss, Maryland, Rutgers and the midwest trash in the Big 10, it really is only 15-20 big programs carrying the load). Bama, OSU, Texas etc all rely on Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, NC State, West Virginia, etc and G5 fans for their games to have top ratings.
I wonder if a super league would invalidate the ACC GoR. It would have changed the structure of college football as a whole. If so we should get together with peer programs like NC State and West Virginia and negotiate with a different network
A league with teams like Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, Northwestern, Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, and Arkansas really screams top-tier NFL minor leagues. 12 out of 28 teams that haven't done squat in the last 25 years and they expect that to form a super league on the coattails of ~10 teams?
This is a great comment, and I am not disagreeing with anything you've said but want to point out it is crazy that Nebrasksa is on this list with those other schools
You have to have patsies in college football, we all love a blow out. Beating UVA by like 40 this year was amazing. I don't want every game competitive like the NFL (minus dolphins-broncos) I love blow outs in college ... when VT is on top.
For some reason i first read this as "pasties"
Is that the Hot Ones guy?
I think the one thing that a lot of people are missing is that the lower tier teams are going to have access to better players (and possibly better coaches, too). Those recruits looking to gain whatever professional career advantage the new league offers are going to go to that league and not go to the Clemsons, Miamis, etc in the other conferences. There are only so many spots at the traditionally great teams so some of those players will end up at Rutgers and Indiana, etc.
I for one would prefer that VT doesn't make the cut. Why be the stalking horse that is NEVER going to be able to compete when you could be a truly competitive team in the lower tier league? And let us be honest with ourselves, VT will never be competitive against the blue bloods that will be in the "super league". We don't have the money or the prestige to be anything other than a whipping boy. I'd rather we and the other left-out teams create a league with some sensible rules in an attempt to create some parity, limit the spending of stupid money that causes athletic departments to become financial money pits, and regional conferences with teams that make sense.
Does the super league try to separate for football only, football and basketball, or all sports? Does the NCAA tell them to sit and spin if they try to leave some sports while withdrawing others.
I still wonder what they title IX implications would be. Schools with associated NIL programs are already using NIL to get around Title IX restrictions.
if the NCAA had a spine,Ok, I know I should just stop there, but I'll continue anyway they would force the SEC and B1G to play with themselves on a cactus rather than prop up their other sports by letting them compete with other leagues. They want to kill other leagues by taking away their football money? Then we can try to kill their other sports by taking away compelling matchups.
That is what I meant by my sit and spin comment. The NCAA should tell them either all in or all out. The all out option will destroy every Olympic sport or reduce them to club status.
But that definitely would bring back the Title IX challenge you touched on because they would need to carry a representative number on the women's side unless by being employees if the recent NLRB ruling proposes is applied across all collegiate sports then Title IX might not apply if they removed scholarships in lieu of salary.
This gets back to the question then if they are employees do they even have to play school any more?
They blew it up real good, didn't they?
The issue isn't that the ncaa is spineless; they're neutered by designed.
There are 1066 schools in the NCAA. 36 of them are SEC/B10. ~700 (D2/3) don't care what the SEC and B10 do. About 230 (FCS + non football schools) don't care at all what the SEC or B10 do in football as long as they stay for basketball. That leaves 50ish schools are perennial FBS bottom dwellers and have no sway. Then there's 50ish schools who will get royally screwed if the P2 leave for football or basketball.
So, what is the NCAA to do when 5% of their membership may want to leave (or at least make the rules for everyone), 5% could get screwed, 10% is only screwed if the P2 pull basketball, and 80% really doesn't care what happens?
Let's just agree that they're neutered, spayed, AND backboneless, by design, AND that they hire folks solely on their ability to remain this way.
And we're disappointed because their narrative is that they're only looking out for the student athletes. So all those folks that you're saying don't care aren't honoring their allegiance to the student athletes.
The point is, the ncaa is nothing more than its member institutions. If you can't get a majority of members to reach a consensus, nothing will get done
So the post I original responded to suggested the the ncaa just refuse to play the P2. Would that help any of the remaining student athletes? No.
It would help them be competitive in the league they're in, rather than being a stepping stone for someone else.
Yes, college sports have value, even without a handful of (already) pro athletes.
I think college athletics are better off with some talent being spread around, rather than paying the most talented big money to be packed into a handful of teams.
If you're going pack them into a handful of teams and pay them $$$, then I'm OK with them going their own way, and being in a separate semi-pro league.
Why should the whole of college athletics be subservient to a handful of semi-pro teams?
I don't think most athletic departments view it this way. I think most D1 athletic departments need the money from the big dance, so they want the P2 to stick around.
Now, if you're talking only about football, I think P2/M2/G5 might make sense. I hope the leagues aren't completely separated, because I love that a 40 pt underdog can upset Goliath, even if it's rare.
The big dance will still be there even if the P2 step out. Those two conferences just won't be invited. I think the viewership might be a little less. But they are on average what 12 of 68 teams?
12 teams, but some of the biggest fanbases - Kentucky and Indiana are basketball royalty. Michigan is big time. OSU, OU, UF have all proved they can bring their football fandom to the tournament.
The point is: these 36 P2 teams bring a lot of money and visibility to the remaining 300 D1 schools. Refusing to play those teams might be cathartic, but - for many of those 300 teams - it will be a net negative.
From Facebook...
Reportedly spent $300k with upgrades or 20% of his reported $1.5M NIL money. Pretty clear he will either have a huge career or be filing bankruptcy before he stops playing. Never ceases to amaze me how dumb these guys can be with money even with most schools putting athletes through financial life management these days.
Especially when you consider he is going to have to pay taxes on that money!
And now the main broadcast partners of these 2 conferences just announced they are packaging their content together under one streaming platform going forward......