Now that the non-conference portion of the schedule is behind the Hokies, how do you think ACC play for Tech shakes out?
Both high-level thoughts on the remainder of the season as well as micro game-by-game predictions are welcomed.
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PAIN. (Clubber Lang .gif)
Came here to say this but in Captain Raymond Holt's voice.
Miami is going to blow us out.
Stanford is a tossup
I hope we're competitive against BC, GT, and Cuse. Very possible we go 0-3, but 1-2 or 2-1 is possible depending on which team shows up.
Loss to Clemson
God I hope we go 2-0 against Duke and UVA
This is basically what I'm thinking. We're a 6-6 team if we figure out how to play a few complete games. If we scheme to our offense's strengths, play assignment D, AND stop shooting ourselves in the foot on ST there is a path to 8-4, but nothing we've seen so far makes me feel like this will happen.
Virginia Tech is capable of losing to every team remaining on the schedule if we start each game by spotting the opponent a few TDs and tripping on our dicks for entire quarters at a time.
This is possibly the complete history of Virginia Tech football.
Based on what I've seen, this is my take:
9/27: @ Miami: Short week, good team. I'm not sure we keep this one close. Could be like last years FSU game, but worse in the end. L
10/5: @ Stanford: After two physical games and a long flight, we face another average, but physical team with a running QB. I think we compete, but lose. L
10/17: BC: I like Thursday nights in Lane Stadium, but here we have a physical team that plays sound football all the way around. They also have a mobile QB who can run and beat you through the air. I think we keep it relatively close, but our defense will be required to be hyper disciplined - something we haven't seen yet under Pry. L
10/26: GT: I like this game. GT is good, but how much better than VT? I need to see more. I can see us winning this one or losing it. Tossup
11/2: @Syracuse: We haven't won in that dome in over two decades. Not to mention, Syracuse actually looks like a football team. Kyle McCord may throw for 400 yards in that game. L
11/9 Clemson: Not much to say here. L
11/23: @Duke: I like our chances down in Wallace Wade Stadium (great fan experience down there BTW). Duke isn't the same team they've been the last few years. I think we win this one convincingly. W
11/30: LOLUVA: Look, I know we always chalk this one up as a win because we always win. But... UVA seems to be, after watching them for a bit, a team that is growing. I don't think they are particularly good at any one thing ,but they do play cohesive football. And Colandrea, as much as VT fans hate him, might give us fits. He's grown into his role a bit. Our saving grace may be that dreadful OL. W
I haven't really looked deeply into PFF for any of these teams, my assessment is mostly related to what I've seen from each of these teams early this season. The bottom line is that VT isn't a particularly good football team. Our only good quality is that "the team doesn't give up." That's great and all, but why does this have to even be the narrative week in and week out. Just go out and play a physical, disciplined game and maybe that "not giving up" garbage (that's what it is at this point) is irrelevant.
Bottom line is I think we end up with 5-6 wins. And that will be a huge step back from last season, especially when you consider that almost 50% of those wins will come from G5 teams and 100% of those wins may very well come from non-bowl eligible teams.
Barring a turnaround ala last season, this is about where I'm at. With what we've seen through the first four games, I'm not sure we make a bowl this year.
If we go down to Miami and get boatraced this week (very likely), I think the team is going to mentally check out. We may be in for a very bad ride.
Honest question here:
Your game by game prediction seems very reasonable and it results in 4-5 wins, if correct. Where do you see the possible 6th win coming from, or was your "5-6 wins" prediction at the end just denial?
I didn't have it as a tossup game, but I think Thursday night at Lane against BC is a game the Hokies COULD win, bringing the possible total to 6. I'm not confident in that though.
My head says 4-4 but my heart says 2-6
I pray to god we go at least 4-4. Miami and Clemson are L's
Taking a step back, and looking from a full perspective, Miami and Clemson are definitely better than VT and would require their best performance plus those teams underperforming for a VT win. VT is on a similar level as GT and BC. VT is better than Cuse, Stanford, Duke and UVA, but it's hard to tell because none of these teams have played great competition. But, VT isn't that much better. VT should win 3 to 6 games, and most likely 4. There is a decent chance both VT and UVA are playing for bowl berth when they meet in November.
I think this is very on-point, but I also think there is a very good chance we will be playing for the Commonwealth Cup and nothing more.
I was messing with a Co-worker who is a huge Miami fan that we are going to beat them next week with a late TD when Tyler Bowen calls a bubble Screen on 3rd and 29 from our own 6 yard line...but in reality---
Miami, Clemson are almost sure losses. BC I see as a bad matchup in similar manner to Rutgers--they run well, we don't stop it.
Cuse, GT and Stanford, I could see us 3-0 or 0-3, but I think 1-2 is most likely.
Should beat Duke --- leaves us at 4 Wins going into UVa game.
For the Hoos, they are 3-1 but I can very much see a scenario where they don't win another game--Pitt or UNC are the most likely possibilities that I see.
Definitely a decent chance of that as well, unfortunately.
But I do think VT may have a week midseason ascension like last year. It honestly depends on Drones and Bowen/Davis getting Drones in position for him to have more consistent success. The O-line won't get much better, so it'll take Bowen/Davis to get back to scheming up ways to get Drones and Tuten to be that 1-2 punch with the occasional deep threat pass, and use of slot/TE safety valves on 3rd down.
The D will overall be fine. In fact, besides Miami and Clemson getting their points, I think the D will turn out to be successful enough that it will be hard to justify firing Marve. And I think Woodson will be the most improved defender on the team, leading the team with tackles by season end. Idk, maybe I should wait for French's review before I make any proclamations about Woodson.
Edit: watched the condensed game. Woodson was at fault for half the TE flat catches. It appears the option play there is to watch WLB, if he crashes, hold and hit the TE (unless CB comes up to play TE, then hit WR). If WLB flexes out, hand it off to RB. Notably, Lawson wasn't any better. It seemes the D by design was to have the WLB fill a gap, not flex out to the flat, which is why that play was successful on repeat. It wasn't until the 4th Q that VT figured out how to defend it.
Also, Clements sprung Tuten on the first TD (worth noting since everyone is dogging him for that safety).
And the OL was starting to bully Rutgers DL in the 4th. VT DL was also bullying in the end of 3rd/4th. VT seemed to have better fitness overall in the 4th, more endurance.
But, a Jenkins blitz, leaving Jones all alone one-on-one with the WR on a screen with two OL closing in on him was killer. Perfect offensive play for that blitz.
And on that pick, Drones did make the right read throwing where the rusher left his man. He just needs to either has side step or alter his arm angle to throw around the rusher. Right read, poor execution.
Could be 4 but could very well be ZERO. This team has yet to play a full four quarters on any week. It's like they get a quota of four per two weeks.
one dollar bob
:(
Beat Miami, everyone back in the hype train. Ugly win against Stanford.
Lose three straight.
Beat Clemson on some fluky bullshit.
Beat Duke and UVA.
Gator Bowl against Shane.
I like the cut of your jib.
The ACC apparently used to have a tie-in with the Idaho Potato Bowl. They missed a huge marketing tag line opportunity during bowl season:
"ACC - Gator Bowl to Tater Bowl"
I know I don't have faith in them to win any. Yet, I'll watch every one hoping they do.
I have been given zero reason to think that this staff can manage, scheme, and game prep a win against any P4 opponent, let alone conference opponents.
Until proven otherwise, I am operating under the assumption that we don't sniff another win this season.
Any success we do have, will be in spite of this staff, not because of them.
I don't realistically see a path to anything better but a 6-6 finish at this point. The ACC doesn't have a nationally elite team this year (will believe Miami when I see it), but I'd say the middle of the pack might be very good when you really dig into the schedule. This is going to be tough sledding from here on out.
Miami - I just don't see how we win this one. The Canes haven't been challenged really yet, but they do look legit and they finally won the QB sweepstakes with Ward. UF isn't great but they manhandled them in the Swamp which is no small feat. The whole mood around the program seems pretty bad right now. Feels like this is an almost assured loss. L
Stanford - two back-to-back long road trips are going to kill us, especially if we lose badly to Miami this week. Stanford appears to have a pulse too. L
BC - Thursday night game at home, should be a great atmosphere. But that has meant nothing as far as home field advantage. BoB appears to have BC rolling...Toss up
GT - Don't really know who GT is yet, but they appear to also be solid and have a pulse this year. Toss up
Syracuse - At the Carrier Dome...that never plays out well for us. We also haven't done well at all on the road under Pry (4-10 in road games in his tenure). L
Clemson - they outclass us in just about every facet. L
Duke - we should win this one. Duke is 4-0 but hasn't looked impressive. W
UVA - we better win this one at home (although the Cavs look like they might have a pulse). W
That puts us at anywhere from 2-6 to 4-4 best case for conference play, which is 4-8 to 6-6 on the year. Looking bleak at this point for the rest of the way.
Miami is going to beat us so bad that I think a lot of guys will check out, causing us to lose at Stanford. BC/GT are tossups IMO, Cuse is a loss bc it's in that stupid dome. After that, Clemson might be close until late but we'll lose-because that's how we roll- and then Duke is a probable W, UVA.... Good God please win that fking game.
All I can predict now, based on watching this football program for 25 years, is that we will probably win a game we shouldn't and lose one in super embarrassing fashion. That's what I'm thinking the rest of the way. Every game feels like a toss-up outside of Miami and Clemson (those go in the L column by default, but maybe Clemson is the shocking win).
That's Virginia Tech football.
Win at Ohio State, lose to East Carolina at home.
But winning vs Miami or Clemson would almost make it worth it. Almost.
From what I have seen so far this year I could easily see us lose out.
This is a bad team with players who shouldn't be this bad. All the ingredients for a spiral of a year that has the players checking out by mid October.
Along these lines of thinking (agreeing it could very well happen), we could also see the team turns things around just enough to make the need for assistant changes a more nuanced conversation. Especially for Whit and the zero cash coffers I keep hearing he has. I struggle with this scenario the most because I want things that aren't nearly perfect to be fixed...not be covered up be mediocrity. But wearing O&M glasses, I never want a loss to make those changes to happen.
I think we'll be lucky to get to a bowl game. If Pry isn't compelled to make staff changes this year he should be shown the door. Whit probably aught to go too.
Lines for Miami opening up as -17... Ugh!
Sad. But true.
8-0 and ACC champions.
I've watched pretty much every ACC game this year. I feel like I have good pulse on the conference teams this year.
Miami is a legit national threat, Cam Ward is a cool cucumber and nothing we do is going to rattle him, their OL is exceptional and defense is good. We get run out of the building there.
Stanford is big but not very sound. They're like us with less talent and bigger guys. I think we win this one the wildcard being coming off Rutgers+Miami and flying across the country.
BC - Thursday night in Lane, I'm going. I've never seen us beat BC in person since I graduated...and I don't think that changes here. Castellanos is better than last year and their line is actually good. It'll be close though I consider this a toss up
GT they're really not any different than last year still riding hype of beating a bad fsu team (we've been there before) we should win this game.
Cuse the only thing that scares me here is the dome Mccord hasn't looked very consistent. Maybe we break the streak.
Clemson post week 1 is a different machine. Sure lower level of competition but the defense is great and Cade is hitting his stride. Won't be close loss.
Duke Diaz still hasn't lost but they still don't really look like a complete team. I'm afraid we could randomly get out coached here which is sad because it's Manny Diaz. We should out talent this team.
UVA is better than last year, Colandrea has stepped up but is absolutely a wild cannon who feeds straight chaos into his veins. Might scramble for 20 yards one play, throw the most beautiful ball the next, and then throw it directly to Strong. Their OL is maybe worse than ours and they can't run the ball out DL is going to feast - W.
Miami is getting to big for their britches. They are going to pass the ball like they want. Our DB's are going to get three picks and return two to the house. Add a PR for a TD and the Hokies win 24-21.
Stanford just isn't very good either. Hokies get the W by forcing their QB to throw the ball. We held Rutgers from over 300 yd/game down. We can stop the Stanford rushing attack.
BC - Toss up. I think the home crowd gets us a W.
GT - Toss up. I think the home crowd gets us a W.
Cuse - McCord throws two picks and the Hokies squeak out a W.
Clemson absolutely kills us and the teams hopes. L
Duke We lose as we are still recovering from Clemson. L
UVA - They are a bad team trying to pretend they are a good team. Hokies crush their expectations again. Home crowd helps. W
And that is the last of my optimism for the year.
Boat raced by Miami and Clemson.
Every other game is a toss up/match up dependent. I don't feel like I know much about the other ACC teams.
If we go 50% in toss up games (that feels optimistic given how physical GT/BC/Syracuse appear right now) and 0-2 against Clemmy and the canes, that puts us 3-5 in conference, 5-7 on the season.
This team has looked like a .500-ish team so far, but 4 wins would not surprise me.
This is the thing. Sure on paper BC and Cuse look like toss ups. Then you throw Virginia Tech into that equation, and we will lose at the carrier dome (duh) and a meh BC team will maul us. Different coaches, different leagues, etc- wash rinse repeat.
I saw a little of Syracuse, pretty good team.
BC is good, and well coached, and looks like a team that we can't handle physically.
I'm gonna watch some football, drink some beer, and honestly not really care too much about the results because that's where we are right now. (Unless we beat Miami and then I'm fully on the hype mid season turn around train and we're making the playoffs as ACC champ)
This is where I'm at. I basically want to fast forward to after the UVA game so I can see what staff changes we make.
...And that's kinda sad
Chris Coleman basically said as much over on TSL. I think this loss really soured the fan base in a major way. It seems like a foregone conclusion that something has to change.
I was toying with some projections and wound up with 4-4. I think that sounds right. There's enough talent on this team to keep the ship afloat but I worry the staff can't maximize it any further.
Every game outside Miami is in the "toss-up/could reasonably go either way" category, i.e. 40-68% win probability. Figure you'll will win a handful and lose a handful.
I will say Duke looks surprisingly strong. They're up to 34th in SP+ (although 65th in FPI... not sure why the discrepancy there). Before the year I'd have penciled that as an easy W, not so much anymore.
"Figure you'll win a handful and lose a handful" of those 40-68% probability win games has me thinking about your recent article. We're something like 1-9 in one score games under Pry, so I have to ask, what do you think is more likely? Do we see some type of statistical regression that has a few balls bounce our way in close games, or do you think we'll just keep losing close ones?
I definitely don't think VT will go winless in one-score games the rest of Pry's tenure. There's bound to be some regression to the mean.
But based on the staff's overall body of work, if you gave me seven conference games and projected VT to win four of them, I'd take the under.
When will us recruiting outside of the top 45 come back to the mean? soon I hope
Virginia Tech football since 1970..... So no reason AT ALL these change. Lose at the Carrier Dome- it's one of the easier bets in all sports in vegas if you are inclined. We don't win there- ever. Also- we will get mauled by BC up front- this is not the 100% carrier dome thing- we have gotten after them a few times over the years, but they will maul our DL, and get to our G5 linebackers on the second level- loss. Miami will crush us because we have no offense until like one quarter in the game- see also Clemson- none of our starters would start for them- think about that. We can beat UVA and Duke and GT is a toss up. Brent Pry who is awful on the road flying 2500 miles to play a decent Stanford team? loss.
MIA - L
Stan - W
BC - L
GT - W
SYR - W (yep, breaking the freaking curse)
Clem - L
Duke - W
UVA - W
7-5bowl bound and win it. Final Record 8-5
Print it.
I mean it's technically no longer the Carrier Dome...
True. and not only has the name changed, they actually did a significant upgrade to a solid roof, etc. What is still there though is a shitty at best 6-6 Syracuse team, and a half full dome- with that half being RIGHT on top of the sidelines.
I don't think I've ever seen a team play more complimentary ball, and I mean that in the worst way possible. The offense and defense take their cues from each other and special teams is a spark that can flip the switch one direction or another.
If the offense is struggling, the defense lets Rutgers move the ball at will - were it not for a really rough day for Rutgers in the red zone, we don't even get a chance to come back. (I must admit the defense gets some credit for the red zone stops.)
While the defense was struggling, the offense looked like it may finish the day with about 150 total yards. Suddenly APR gets two sacks in a row, Jaylin Lane has a nice punt return, and now the offense is moving the ball down the field at will.
The defense allows a big play after Rutgers makes the perfect play call. The offense turns around and loses the game on three plays.
It was the same way at Vanderbilt. The ODU game was the same way in the second quarter.
If, and this is a big if, we can get momentum early in some of these games, we'll probably run away with them. But I haven't seen the offense pick up the defense by going shot for shot in a shootout, I haven't seen the defense pick up the offense by getting them ball back in good field position time and time again.
I wanted to be further removed from the game Saturday (which I was at, hence my lack of participation in the game thread and post-game discussions) before weighing in on this:
For conference play, anyway you look at, and regardless of our very fan-focused critical nature towards our own team making us more keenly aware of our own shortcomings, all of Stanford, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Duke and Virginia are winnable games. We almost certainly won't win them all, because we are not consistent enough right now, but those teams aren't either. None of those six teams are materially more talented, or have shown the level of consistency that would separate them from VT in a one-off game. Miami and Clemson obviously do not fit that mold. They are both materially more talented. I would love a shock win against either, but I think at this point it's unreasonable to expect either of those to be anything but a loss, and probably by multiple scores.
So looking at those 6 conference games, 3-3 would be a massive failure and likely missing a bowl game, 4-2 would be a bowl game, and 5-1 would still only put us as at 7-5, but would probably have our spirits a lot higher than they are right now.
*Chefs kiss* so well put 🤌🤌🤌
I think it's noteworthy, that if you go back to this exact same point last season, the sentiment and belief in VT was actually a lot lower. And in reality, 2024 VT has played a lot better through 4 games than 2023 VT. And much like last year, VT has 2 ACC games that are definitely losses with the rest potentially winnable. I'm not saying 2024 VT will repeat the 2nd half success of 2023 VT. But, with the right focus on offense (run game, Drones RPO) they surely could.
It's not as dire as many are proposing.
You would have been OK with 6-6 again going into this year?
No, where did I say that?
I'm merely commenting on the team. It's easier to see, from this point in the season 2024, a reason for improved play the rest of the season, much easier than this point in 2023. The OL and DL got beat by Rutgers in the first half, but they beat up on Rutgers in the 2nd half. The run blocking is improved over a year ago. The defensive front 7 is better at run fitting.
There is no going back in time and changing the way Vandy and Rutgers went. But, 2024 VT OOC was clearly better than the 2023 VT OOC in those losses to Purdue, Rutgers and Marshall. And it's not close. It was way more dire in 2023 than 2024. At this point last year, they lost by 19 to Rutgers and then 7 to Marshall. And they gave up 256 yards (7.5 ypc) to Rutgers and 174 (6.4 ypc) to Rasheen Ali.
Get offense focused on the strengths and this team will be alright.
of course it's not as bad as it feels right now, but i'd argue that relative to (very reasonable!) expectations, the team is playing worse this year than last.
it's awfully depressing to have the amount of returning starters that we have, poised to take a collective step forward to build on all the blowout wins we had by flipping the narrative in close games while still kicking inferior competition in the teeth. Instead it's being down quickly against Vandy before giving up a fourth quarter lead, and being down early against Rutgers before giving up a late fourth quarter tie, and looking unsteady at times vs Marshall and ODU even in the wins.
idk what the opposite of a pyrrhic victory is, but year 3 with this many starters and staff returning isn't the right time for it
Reasonable points.
I would say that we largely convinced ourselves that starting Wells was the issue last year. Our issues were (and still are) deeper than that.
I think the expectation was that Drones would take a step forward in the Passing Game and the Offense would be significantly ahead of where they are now.
So I would say that, relative to expectations, we are underperforming even worse than last year.
The most disturbing thing to me is Drones...not only does he not look improved, he looks worse in nearly every facet of the throwing game. Maybe we need a true QB coach...you know...one with actual experience either coaching or playing the position.
Yep. Pretty damning of our QB coaching. I think Drones is showing that he was fairly overhyped coming into this season, but I think he could be better than what we are seeing now with better coaching. Our OC has no QB coaching experience, and Crist who is the de facto QB coach is basically from the Blacksburg good old boy circles with no serious big coaching experience. Not acceptable at all.
Heard on the TSL podcast from David Cunningham that of all the teams Pry has beaten in his tenure so far at VT, the combined win percentage of those teams is around 42% And that includes 11 wins from the Tulane team that was completely depleted in the bowl game. We have beaten no one with a pulse, and the lack of coaching acumen really shows when we play equal or better competition.
Another stat from that pod: all of last years wins came against teams that finished outside the SP+ top 80
It's worth noting that pretty much all P4 QBs use personal QB coaching, at least on fundamentals, accuracy, and timing. He has the same coach as Heisman candidate Cam Ward.
Reading defenses (especially in context with the Offense) would be on Bowen and Crist. Putting him positions that are not yielding success is also on them.
LOL, was Cam Ward getting 9 out of 10 snaps and then the coach was like "OK Kyron, give it one shot and we'll move on."?
EDIT: I want to point out that I'm not poking fun at your statement, Chazz. It's 100% fun at the expense of Drones' coaches vs. output on the field.
On a different note, I'm just tired of seeing QBs from other teams, supposedly inferior teams, ball the fuck out like the Heisman trophy is dependent on it, but then our QBs spend 70-80% of the game looking like they are out of options, confused, running for their life, etc. There is a stench on the current team, and it's reasonable to assume it's not coming from the previous regimes.
No worries.
Cam Ward is in his 5th season as a starting QB and Drones is only in year 2. But yea, Drones probably will never get to Ward's level.
Drones really wants to beat Ward this Friday. I doubt it happens, but he will have that extra swagger to beat his cousin.
Can't remember the name, but didn't Logan Thomas start using one of these self-proclaimed QB gurus as his personal coach, and then LT's play drastically started going downhill? I remember that guy trained a few high profile college QBs, made the circuits on ESPN for a while, and then was never heard from ever again (total fraud).
Hey if he's looking for some quality QB coaching, there might be a consultant in Oklahoma now who's available...QB Xtreme /s
George Whitfield, and yes he did.
I am just hoping the rumor that he got he big bad from NIL and now is just loafing is wrong. There is no way the bag is big enough to retire and he has no chance of going pro with his numbers right now.
I had seen some rumors that the NIL bag was north of $500k. Not retirement level money at all, but that's an enormous investment relative to the production we are seeing.
I've been thinking about this for a while now but haven't posted about it. There is one very big intangible at play here. Unfortunately, human nature can be a real MF'r if left unchecked.
I think what we are seeing, and everyone else in CFB to a degree, is a set of young humans beings at one time playing their asses off to prove and position themselves to max benefit NIL in the offseason. Schools like VT wanted to retain as much talent as possible. So, they shelled out material amounts of Do-Re-Mi to do so.
These actions created the following effect: Player plays his ass of last season b/c he sees what NIL can do for him, is hungry, and wants to get paid. Thus, we get his fire and tenacity to prove/position himself. In the offseason, he gets paid. Post payment, a sigh of relief takes place and the player is in a somewhat "holy shit" state of mind cuz he just got $500k. This transaction then impacts the once mental and psychological state the player once had.
Human nature unchecked, and the player no longer has the incentive to prove/position. They hit the CFB NIL lotto and we see it in their play this season.
I will coin this as the "Drones Effect". This is what a lot of money can and will do to people.
Well now that we are "here" I dream of a true free market. I have bitched about the entitlement you see literally in NO other business in America. So let's go true free market. If you suck, you don't get paid. If you suck at right tackle at VT, you get cut mid week and we bring up a practice squad player. If you complete 45% of your passes, you get offered a commensurate payment the next off season- in other words- minumum wage. It's already a total shit show not based on real value, so let's flip that and be real- If you can't read a defense, you get a shit NIL deal.
Don't understand this at all. Sorry to rehash this argument for the 1,000th time, but players have been denied compensation (tuition, room, and board don't count) for far too long. Just because they're finally getting a slice of the pie and it doesn't sit right with you doesn't make them "entitled".
NFL teams have been throwing huge bucks at terrible quarterbacks for a long time. It's hard to win chips without a great QB, and they're in short supply, so teams shell out on marginal players hoping that they'll pan out. Are Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson "entitled"? That's your free market at work.
I think the big difference is for the majority of fans the compensation that you don't count does to us. Room, board, books and supplies, tutors, and tuition are a huge cost to the school. I knew they were a big cost to me when I worked my way through my engineering degree.
Absolutely, they were for me as well. And that was probably more than fair compensation for a college football player 80 years ago. Fast forward to today where coaches are making millions of dollars a year and conference TV deals are in the BILLIONS. People are making money hand over fist off the backs of these players. Wasn't the case for us as engineering students.
For a myriad of reasons EVERYONE on this board WISHES to god the ACC TV deal was worth billions. Try more like 144 million per year divided among the 16 schools.
"tuition, room, and board don't count"- why? I paid a good chunk of change for my son to go to VT. I wish that was monopoly money and fake. The only people that say this are people that never paid for college as a student or parent. Seriously, what logic is tuition, food, exposure, medical staffs, nutrition, etc "don't count"?? honestly curious why. If your answer is well, the coaches make money... does my compensation at work not count because my boss makes more money than me? I honestly don't get this.
Safe to assume your son wasn't on the football team during his time at VT? Perhaps he had some other form of employment with the university (dining hall?) that paid him actual money?
I think it would be a bad deal if my boss made millions while I didn't get a paycheck.
Correct- my son was not on the football team and thus did not get a 200K education for free. That doesn't count though. When he got sick, he also had to go to the clinic or pay to see a doctor, he did not have access to the team doctor. When he was hungry he also had to pay for his food. Doesn't count though. He didn't get injured in college that I can recall, but if he did he would not have had access to a free team surgeon. Doesn't count. He was not on ESPN every saturday having his name plastered for potential job recruiters either, which would have come in handy as he is in the sports field. The ESPN exposure would have landed him a much better gig. Doesn't count though.
Sounds like your son was a student at Tech rather than working in a role that helped to generate millions of dollars in revenue for the school? Then I'm not sure how its a valid comparison in that case. If you think he was entitled to better medical care and career services as a student, perhaps you should take that up with the school?
If you don't believe that the labor in a multi-billion dollar industry should be paid money for their services, then I guess we just have different philosophies on the subject.
This is not the argument. The argument is that 200K tuition is real and not fake. If you think that 75K per year in scholly, etc is not real or worth any value in exchange for playing football- I will never agree.
Sure it's worth something. But it's worth a lot more to you when your primary job is student rather than football player. This is conjecture but I bet a lot of football players historically would rather have taken that 75k in cash.
In a multi-billion dollar industry, does $75k a year compensation for a star player feel fair to you when coaches, administrators, TV execs, and others are making hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars per year?
Lets talk real money, shall we? Instead of this sensational billions figure- which is the fucking SEC contract over a number of years and is not per school. So can we at least use real numbers? Let's use my beloved alma mater as an example shall we? for 2023 Virginia Tech Football - Revenue - $113,000,052 - Expenses- $117,777,441 Profit- $14,193,159 So lets take 14 million and divide it by 85 scholarship players- fair? That's 164K per year per player. I would be fine with that- pay them 160K per season, tax it, etc. Are you OK with that model?
Headed in the right direction!
Nope. That ignores the basketball players (women's and men's) that helped generate that revenue. That means that 14 million in profit needs to be divided even further (even if you give basketball a smaller share than football). The women's basketball season tickets this year are sold out. I am not sure if Mens basketball is.
I agree. Entitled is the wrong word. Marcus Vick was entitled at VT. He believed that he was deserving of a spot on the team because of his last name. Drones saying "School X offered be $Y, can you match it?" is not entitled; it's opportunistic. The market is wonky right now. Players are milking it for all they can.
While I disagree with the premise, but I do understand why people are resentful of college athletes getting 6 figures of income when regular students go into 6 figures of debt. There's a lot that's broken with higher ed right now, but finding a new way to keep money from players doesn't fix any of that.
I might even go so far as to say that the highest form of "entitlement" is implying that other people should do something
for freeunder a framework of enforced amateurism so that my enjoyment of of that thing can remain maximizedEdited for accuracy
Ooohhh saucy take I love it
Wish I could leg this more than once.
They don't do it for free. They get a stipend, Tuition, room and board. For the 1000th time- whether you agree or not, since other students have to pay for those things with real money- they have value. That can not be argued.
one of the big differences is that the students who are paying for their education get to choose their major. A lot of top athletes at football schools get pushed into easy majors to reduce the academic workload so they can focus on football...these football players aren't at their respective universities to "play school" as it was once put. Getting their "education" paid for is a nice perk but the relative 'value' isn't the same. My engineering degree, which I've paid for, is far more valuable than a communications degree that some athlete gets pushed into so he can focus on football. Especially if it's something he doesn't really care about. He's there, in all likelihood, to advance his career as a professional athlete. Often times it doesn't work out (a vast majority, in fact) but try telling a high school athlete who has been the star of his small town high school team for two years that professional football isn't a realistic goal. These kids are almost preyed upon - being promised a route to a NFL roster spot when in reality most kids never get there. They are told they can make it and they believe it and they figure, 'what the hell, I don't need a college degree but since I'm in school and I have to do school work I'll just pick the easiest major so I can focus on getting to the NFL.'
It's a fallacy to suggest that the degree they are getting for free is equal in value to the degrees that non-athlete students pay for. That is only true in some weird fantasy world. Now, in some rare cases, there are football players who take full advantage of it. It. Is. Rare. So rare, in fact, that when a player at some school is pursuing an engineering degree it is so remarkable that it's talked about by the broadcast team every week. That one player is super smart. They wouldn't talk about it if it was common.
Agree to disagree. We have had players doing engineering, business, and other real majors.
When's the last player to graduate with an engineering degree? Out of the current seniors on the roster, Felton is in a science (psychology) and that's the only BS degree i saw. Lane is in finance so that might not be a easy major, I dont know. But I know we have moved guys out of majors so they could football more, QP3 was forced out of engineering.
Cole Beck Dual sport football and track. Dec 2023. Some kind of design and construction management masters IIRC.
Brandon Facyson was premed and doing well when he decided to goto NFL draft and had an excellent career.
Just 2 off the top of my head. Yes, I know they are not engineers per se but, neither is to sneeze at.
It CAN be done. It imply isn't done often.
Clearly you're missing my point. I'm not saying it is impossible or that it doesn't happen. Just that it's rare. A vast majority of the athletes who play football in the P4 aren't getting a serious education. The relative value of their degree is lower than that of other students. Players are pushed into an education they wouldn't otherwise choose for themselves. If I wanted to study astrophysics and I got promised a full ride to play football and then I show up and get pushed into a different major because it's less demanding on my schedule and makes me more available for football am I going to take that seriously?
It's not nothing. I'm not arguing that a free college education is a bad thing. It's just that for most football players they end up taking fake classes (unc) or classes about a topic they don't care about because the messaging they receive is that their pro football career pursuits are more important. When the pro football career doesn't work out they are left high and dry with a mostly worthless education. A free ride meant something 50 years ago. Most athletes took it seriously. Nowadays it's simply a nice perk and hardly commensurate with the value they provide to the football program.
All this to say that even though I don't believe a free "education" is necessarily fair compensation for the value players bring to a football program, I also don't believe that this current version of NIL is a smart or functional system. College football is a messy business. This NIL nonsense, they way it is being implemented, does more harm than good.
Do the players deserve to be compensated? I think yes. They are, after all, the key cogs in the value stream. Without them there is no product to sell. Are they entitled to the same compensation? I think no. Some players are inherently more valuable than others. NIL was supposed to be the adjustment. In the past the truly valuable players were compensated under the table. That came with its own risks. Now it's kosher but since it's so new the market went absolutely nuts and there were never any guardrails put in place to mitigate the chaos. Eventually, over time, things will correct. You're seeing players get way more than what they are worth right now. That's going to regress to the mean eventually.
"A lot of top athletes at football schools"- would not sniff admission into Virginia Tech - much less Duke, Stanford, GT, UVA, etc. if they didn't play football and you know it. So let's not pretend that preferred admission is "preying" on athletes - in fact its the opposite. And I disagree that any real coach at VT or their high school is telling them they can play in the NFL- most coaches tell them the opposite- they have to earn it.. Now - cousins, handlers, agents? yeah.
I get that it's different, but it's not different enough for me to care. It's still completely ass-backwards to me, and it probably always will be.
I'm not saying I don't want them to get paid, but we are now subsidizing the mediocrity of VT football. If they go out there and underperform their income level by this much, how long do you think that's going to last?
You're absolutely right in that a scholly isnt free, i amended the above for accuracy
Fire take. Love it.
And this is why NIL in its current form, which is basically pay for play and donor funded, is just not going to last. In the NFL, if you sign a player for a big contract and they subsequently underperform, check out, whatever - you trade or cut them. And the money you spent on them is a sunk operating cost. All of the revenue to pay salaries is coming from operations (tickets, concessions, merchandise, licensing, sponsorships, tv revenue, etc.)
Right now in college football, donors are forking the vast majority of the bill for NIL. When a big donor ponies up six figures of their own money to pay a player, and they underperform or check out, there is going to be some serious heartburn from the donors, and likely that money dries up fast next year. Absolutely no ROI - it's still considered a "donation" which is absolute horseshit.
Either consolidate the sport, get collective bargaining on tv money, establish contracts for players, and go to a full-on pro sports model, or stop the charade and go full on amateurism. This is just ridiculous.
Actually it isn't even considered a tax write off "donation" anymore.
So it's a non-deductible donation. Essentially give me money for absolutely nothing in return. Great business model when players don't produce and donors get burned.
Corny is actually the OC at Sam Houston State now. But your point stands
to his credit, Sam Houston State is 3-1 and they've scored 30+ in all 3 of their wins
For comparison Scot Loeffler is HC at Bowling green and they lost to #8 Penn State by 7 and #25 Texas A&M by 6.
Yep and because of Dabo Swinney and James Franklin, Leoffler was drawing up plays for Calvin Kline and Deon Newsome at VT. He was a good OC- with zero material to work with. VT could never have both working together post 2010.
Drones in the pocket is a gift wrapped present for the opposing team. He is playing with blinders on , I know there have been some line issues, but drones is not seeing receivers. Wide open Gosnell right in front of him on the safety play.
I think they just need to run the ball down everyone's throat, but tuten being hurt is going to be an issue . Tech needs some big boy coaches. The rah rah bunch isn't working out.
I've watched the safety play and see S. Gosnell wide open, but it looks to me like Drones 1st read is to his right to B. Gosnell..he doesn't get a chance to get thru his progressions because he has his RT in his lap almost instantly.
So while KD may have some fault...is there not also alot of fault on the O.C. not recognizing the D alignment/tendencies and making Gosnell the primary read??
As sad as this is, we really need to design a single-read or RPO passing game due to the incredible ineptitude of the OL in PassPro. That seems like largely what we were doing last year, until we decided we were going to change it up this year...with doodoo results.
This is what I was banking on. And there seemed to be signs from his play last year that he could take a step forward. And he did put in a lot of work in the offseason, with the same QB coach as Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders.
There was pressure on Drones to take that step. And there was pressure on Bowen to prove that Drones can be an NFL-level passing QB and also to establish that VT is the next WRU. And with the influx of zone defenses, inconsistent OL, and offseason training, Drones is thinking too much instead of letting the game come to him.
Re-establishing his dominant rushing (and specifically scheming for his rushing success) should get the offense back on-track. If Bowen and Davis refocus on what his bona fide strengths, Drones would be trucking ACC linebackers and safeties again. And when he establishes that, I think defenses will open up more, he'll stress less, and then he'll be able to hone in his offseason training and improve his pass game.
This team isn't mentally tough so Miami is going to beat us twice. Once directly and again when Stanford beats us.
Bc is a loss because they have a QB that can run and we don't know what to do with that.
Gt is a toss up.
Cuse is a toss up.
Clemson will be close but we'll lose.
We beat duke
We beat UVA
4-6 win season with a bowl loss if we make it.
We're absolutely about to get our shit rocked by Miami.
5-3
Last year they sat at 1-3 after non-conference play. With their backs against the wall, they came out exploded against Pitt.
Miami enters this game in full "We Bak" mode. If ever we were going to steal a game, this is it.
I thought 9-3 at the beginning of the season, but I think 7-5 is more like it.
It's a new day. Instead of one of their own overrated QB recruits like Jacory Harris or Van Dyke or any number of overrated HS QBs they have had, now they have a legit 5th year senior that has proven to be a great player at this level outside of Miami. THAT is the difference. Cam Ward is a great, veteran QB not based on HS hype or illegal payments. Game changer for Miami. In terms of Friday night- VT might play inspired for a bit, but Ward will eventually pick our defense apart. Rutgers ran a simple RPO screen concept we couldn't figure out for 3 quarters. Ward is going to destroy us. The only path for a huge VT upset it to outscore them.
Cam Ward does have the occasional dud game. He had them in previous seasons. He has not had one this year, yet.
I am also not a believer in Cristobol. Elite recruiter, meh game day coach.
Not saying tech will pull off the win, but I do think the potential is there. Miami is looking at us (deservedly so) as a team that lost to Vanderbilt. They are being super hyped. They are supposed to blow us away. It just seems like a game where they get caught off guard.
Very valid points. Let me ask you this- how many points do you think VT will score against Miami? 17? 24? 35? I'm thinking not very many, thus Ward won't need to be great - only good.
Fair. The most optimistic I can get is 24.
Miami's pass game has been a lot better than their run game. We will need our corners to live up to the hype and hope we can keep the score low. Not likely, but possible.
I feel like we have the capability of scheming up something to get pressure on Ward and cover their WRs well enough but then Martinez will just run all over us. I don't see our defense being able to "stay on schedule" against both Ward and Martinez. We've shown the ability to keep one side of an offense in check at a time, but not both and Martinez is due for a big game.
We are going to need help from Miami. Like the game there a few years back that we still almost blew. They gifted us 4 turnovers if I recall early and we had a big lead. That is the only way we are going to win this game- we get help from them. They will be ready to play VT- this used to be a great rivalry and they know that. Also they have a lot of former players that hang around that program that will remind them how much of a pain in the neck we used to be. They will have to help us for us to win.
Yep, it'll take no fuck ups from us, Cam Ward having a UCLA performance, the rest of the team coming in cocky, and Cristobal doing some Cristobal shit to win this game.
this is the biggest piece of it. Our offense should be a lot more potent than it is. I think we might only score between 20-27 points in Miami and that just isn't good enough. We likely need to score 35+ to be remotely close to pulling off the upset. I expect Miami to score at least 40. Here's a fun stat for you: Miami hasn't scored fewer than 40 points all season. VT hasn't scored more than 37 points all season. IF VT wants to have a shot at winning this game, our offense needs to be absolutely perfect. And we've never seen that. Ever.
Boy that's some optimism, some advance stats have this as a projected 24pt spread and we're sitting at 19.5 dogs via Vegas (we were +3 vs Pitt last year).
I don't think there are many parallels between a 4-0 #6 Miami who is actually back and a 1-3 Pitt. I can certainly draw some parallels between 2023 VT and 2024 VT...
Yes, and if that same VT Pitt game was played at Heinz, we would have gotten smoked.
I prefer "sauced"
They ain't played nobody.
5 wins max
5 wins would be absolutely great Bob (IMHO)
I dont see any of the conference schedule going well. We're apparently already banged up, and we already weren't passing the eye test. The only winnable games I see on our schedule are Stanford, Duke, and UVA. Those are all 50/50 right now unless something changes and the offense starts to click. So, 2-6 in conference play, and a 4-8 record overall. We can go ahead and put the entire coaching staff on the hot seat now - no reason to wait for the off-season.
in a dream world - we get so embarrassingly blasted by Miami that Bowen and Marve are both dismissed/reassigned and Brent Davis takes over the OC role and we suddenly look way better offensively (similar to last year) and Brent Pry takes over defensive duties and we start to look at least competent on defense to go on and salvage at least a 7 win season with a bowl berth.
hey, a guy can dream, right?
In all seriousness, I'm not sure that the coaching staff isn't already on a hot seat. I don't expect major staff changes in the off-season because that's just not a thing VT football does (not since the 90s) but if Pry is going to save face he's going to have to make some changes basically the day after our season ends (which is looking more and more likely it'll be in November). If we don't have, at minimum, vacancies at OC or DC by Christmas I wouldn't expect to see anything change until at least 2028. Pry will get 6 full years to prove what he's already proven in 2.5 years; He's not cut out for HC at the P*whatever* level. At this point, I think the only thing Pry can do to prove that he can cut it as a HC at the highest level is to fire the guys who are in over their heads and hire people who know WTF they are doing. I said the same of Fuente in 2018. He didn't make the changes necessary and he lost his job a few years later and hasn't worked since. The blueprint is there. It's up to Pry to follow a different one. We'll see. I don't have high hopes.
Continuing the dream - we hire Dan Mullen as OC.
Mullen as OC would be amazing. That is where he is great. Hell, we wasn't a terrible head coach either- and that skill would help Pry scout, recruit and game plan. I'm sure we will hear Whit cant afford him or won't pay him though. If that is the case, we are at a major crossroads here- not hyperbole- Do you resign yourself to being Wake Forest and Maryland? Is that what VT football is for the next 10 years? No juice, no winning, recruit in the 50's on a good day. Because that's what we are at this second.
Can't disagree... hiring Mullen would signal to the nation that VT cares about football. It won't happen (I think Mullen likes his desk job, and I don't think VT would pay $2m+ for a coordinator), but go get a proven for OC. Dabo - for all his flaws - went out and got Chad Morris (the hottest G5 coordinator at the time), then two years later went out and got a proven DC.
I am realistic and Know VT won't do that, but go get a proven G5 coordinator/QB coach. He can bring his OL coach. Surround them with recruiters at RB, TE, and WR.
Prior to this season- I was NOT- of this mind at all, but if Pry wins 4/5 games this year - we HAVE to do something. Whit or whomever has to do something- and not just anything. We must get this fixed at all costs. Hire PJ Fleck as an analyst, Hire Billy Napier when he gets fired, hire an unemployed NFL defensive coach as an analyst. Just like the talent on the field needs to improve, so does the talent on the coaching staff. 4-8 we BETTER make some fucking changes.
I still don't really understand why we hired Brad Glenn but didn't make him OC. He's doing okay at Cincy. I wouldn't be super thrilled with him but I think he's more qualified than Bowen. That whole situation just made no sense to me. I was concerned about the offensive coaching hires right off the bat and thus far they have done very little to make me feel good about it. I think it's time to re-evaluate and hire someone who knows what they are doing. Clearly Bowen doesn't.
Pry wasn't interested in any "fuente" guys - except his old drinking buddy JC Price.
I'm not sure what you mean by this. Brad Glenn, to my knowledge, had no affiliation with VT or Fuente before he was hired as part of Pry's new offensive staff in 2022
My bad- I thought Glenn coached under Fuente? disregard.
I dont think Marve is the problem, at least not this season. The defense has been good enough for this team to be 4-0. If the offense could stop the untimely turnovers and the very short drives to give the D a break, then we've won each of our first four games by 2+ scores.
And I disagree with the take that Pry isn't cut out for this. Coming right out of the gate he was everything that Fuente wasn't, and that was exactly what the program needed at the time. He's had to re-forge the Virginia pipeline and its going to take a couple more years to realize that continued effort. Has he made a misstep in hiring new guys into the coordinator role? Probably. But we've also seen some solid performance out of the defense recently (late last year, this year) and we've seen Bowen catch fire. If Marve stays consistent and things start to click (soon) with the offense then I dont think we need changes in the coaches, we just need more development from the players to continue to execute better. If those things DONT happen, then Pry needs to demonstrate his ability to make tough but necessary decisions by making a change with his top assistants. If the can't, he's going to get run out of a town just like his predecessor.
I know I've seen others say it, but I feel like every week the coordinator I want replaced changes.
Good post, but if Pry is 4-8, the ole bottom line - would be 16-24 as head coach- will catch up to him. in this day and age, that is not good enough to not make changes on the staff. After 3 years Justin Fuente was 24-15.
The bottom line absolutely matters. My only counter to that argument is he inherited a full roster of Beamer's recruits and a lot of upper classmen players that were more developed. He converted that first season into 10 wins because of it.
admittedly, the way it is written it can be a little tough to tell but what I'm actually saying is IF Pry doesn't make changes to the staff after losing 6+ games this year THEN he is not cut out for the HC job (this assumes that the performances resemble what we've seen thus far and we finish 6-6 or worse). I sincerely hope he is cut out for it. I like him a lot. But at some point he needs to win and he's not doing that right now. If he needs to hire better coaches to get there he needs to do that. In my eyes, Fuente's undoing was not replacing underperforming coaches. Maybe Ballein was advising Whit not to let him make changes because, money, or something? Maybe the same treatment is being applied to Pry? Who knows. But if you hire a coach and don't let them make changes to their staff when they see fit you're knee-capping them. I HOPE that Pry will have the latitude to make changes. And, given that latitude, I hope he does it. If he can't recognize that his coaches aren't pulling their weight and/or isn't willing to make the changes to address their shortcomings then he's not fit to be a HC at this level. Time will tell. Hopefully he makes the changes and proves that he's HC material. But, historically, VT hasn't made staff changes when they've been needed so I don't expect it to happen. Whether that's a Pry issue, a Whit issue, a Ballein issue or something else is unclear but the program is going to continue to suffer if we don't make those types of changes.
100% agree. There are plenty of examples, even one close to home, of HC's struggling early, shaking up their staff, and righting the ship. Heck, that appears to be what Cristobal has done at da U.
If VT continues on their current track record and the season ends in disappointment, it will be a huge indictment of Whit and Pry if they don't shake up the staff in a meaningful way. At the very least, you can't repeat the mistakes of your immediate predecessor.
yep. The hope, of course, is that the coaches we have in place know what they are doing and we turn things around really quickly. How awesome would it be to go 7-1 or 8-0 through ACC play? What if we lose to Miami by a FG and then win out? That changes the entire tenor of my posts. Does anyone really think that's going to happen? No. If we work with the data we have from the last 2.3 seasons we can pretty confidently project out at most another 4 wins this year. I think it is pretty clear at this stage that the coaches we have in the boat right now just aren't good enough. It's Pry's job to address that and get coaches who can operate at this level in the program to help us win. If he can't, he's not HC material. If he can, and we start winning, then he is. Simple as that.
"Fuente's undoing was" - he couldn't recruit. Wasn't interested in kissing players asses at the level needed in the southeast part of the country- I don't really blame him but - it was 90% of his job. Sure he could draw up an offense, but you need good RBs and WRs to make that work and he couldn't recruit one of either to save his life. The holston's etc- you can't beat Clemson with those guys. His best players were either Beamer recruits- Edmunds, Stroman, Cam Phillips, Mook, etc. or Transfers- herbert, hazelton, etc. He found a couple diamonds in the rough- Darrisaw, Keene but you are seeing now why he was fired- he couldn't bring good players in here. Sure you fire Corny or take over play calling (which all of his mentors- Gary Patterson- etc told him NOT to do) and maybe we win a couple more games. But Pry's upperclassmen that are supposed to be developed players and leaders are losing to Vandy and those are Fuente's guys. Pry has done very well in the portal (a little wet rag on that if Drones continues to be bad) and has improved recruiting -marginally- but improved. Something needs to be changed/fixed.
okay, this is a totally valid point. I concede that recruiting is an important aspect of the head whistle's job. That said, I also think that having better recruiters on your staff in general would help there. Sure, Fuente didn't like to be the lead cheerleader and recruiter - maybe if he had hired guys who were ACE recruiters, he wouldn't have to be. I know damn well Cornelsen wasn't recruiting top notch talent. But if he brought in a Chad Morris type who could recruit AND coach our talent problem wouldn't have been so dire. I think there are lots of guys in the industry who know ball but can't recruit. Some guys can recruit their asses off but don't know ball. Find the guys who do both well. We haven't. By all accounts, Bowen is a pretty good recruiter. But his players are struggling to execute his offense which, IMO, is a coaching failure.
I think Pry focused on hiring recruiters first hoping they would develop into being better coaches/coordinators. It unfortunately for everybody involved hasn't worked out that way for the two main guys.
This makes Marve even more of a head-scratcher. Zero DC experience and the rumblings from FSU were that they were glad to see him go, in part because of his subpar recruiting abilities.
Marve is your classic quiet, lead by example, bring your lunch to work guy. He's not Shane Beamer- he is more Jim Cavanaugh- who was a hell of a recruiter- Because his boss told him to be. Pry needs to do the same- make recruiting targets for Marve. Don't meet them? bye.
"We're apparently already banged up"... If Mike Gentry was a dinosaur and out of touch, I don't want to be "in touch"
Hi I'm just here to do football points-induced pushups now. I was out and about last weekend and hyper busy Monday and Tuesday so I finally caught up yesterday. Here are the updated stats you all have been clearly, restlessly asking for:
September 21 - 22
USCe: 7+15+22+29+36+43+50 = 202
VT: 7+15+23 = 45
Steelers: 7+10+13+20 = 50
———
297
Running total: 996
*note: I didn't do week 1 college, this started when both college and nfl were going
Goin HAM.
Perhaps consider air squats instead of push ups one week? Maybe you can manifest a fix for our team's skinny leg problem.
Tore my meniscus a month ago, or I would be doing weighted squats :/
I believe you meant goin Cram. I'll see myself out...