I am going to stand up again with my theory that close games are more entertaining. So i have looked at conference games through week 8 of this season and again the ACC has the most 1 score games (note I am counting ND vs ACC team as ACC game).
The Big Ten is the worst to watch as it is almost 50% blowouts.
The Big 12 seems more boom or bust with 1 score and 3+ score games being almost equal.
The SEC does well and has had a number of great games the past couple of weeks
One note is that week 7 is the only week with more 1 score conference games than 2+ score conference games. Before week 5 there aren't a ton of conference games so this might change. The SEC really had a great week going 4, 1, and 1 with 1, 2, and 3+ score games
Another note is that Clemson has 4 of the 3 score games and was a 16 point win over FSU in their other ACC game. VT, SMU, and ND each have two 3+ score wins. All four of those ACC teams recorded a three plus score game in week 8. I think this doesn't speak highly of Miami as they have not had a 3+ score game yet as they have played in 3 ACC games with all 3 being 1 score games. This includes Cal who has lost to FSU and NC State and could easily go winless in the ACC. They have a chance with FSU next week, but rivalry games are tricky.
| Conference | total | 1 Score | 2 Score | 3+ Score | 1 Score % | 2 Score % | 3+ Score % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | 35 | 18 | 7 | 10 | 51.43% | 20.00% | 28.57% |
| B12 | 35 | 15 | 6 | 14 | 42.86% | 17.14% | 40.00% |
| B1G | 36 | 13 | 6 | 17 | 36.11% | 16.67% | 47.22% |
| SEC | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 44.12% | 23.53% | 32.35% |
I do realize that not all 1 score games are equal and late scores make a difference in the game, however I believe in a large enough sample size that noise is removed because you have blowouts that are closer because teams score in garbage time and you have close games that get blown open late. Overall close scores are the more entertaining games to watch.
Comments
Yesterday I was daydreaming about Virginia Tech going 5-0 over our last 5 games and finishing 9-3, and trying to decide if 10-3 with a win in the ACC championship game would be enough to get in the playoffs (it probably would).
So I decided to look at the ACC standings and our remaining schedule. I was stunned by the impressive win/loss record of our remaining opponents. That was before yesterday's games, and some of them played each other yesterday, so obviously there are now a couple more losses in the overall record. But after yesterday, our remaining opponents have an overall record of 26-9. Yikes. Here's how it breaks down:
Georgia Tech 5-3
Syracuse 5-1
Clemson 6-1
Duke 6-1
UVA 4-3
We could actually play pretty decent football and go 1-4 over that stretch. I think 2-3 is pretty realistic, and anything better than that is frankly impressive.
4-1. After responding to the BC 3rd quarter surge and hanging 42 points on them, I'm feeling bullish as ever.
O&M glasses be damned
I think 5-0 is possible but unlikely, and I would be happy with 4-1. Despite those opponent win/loss records VT is likely to be favored in every game but Clemson, so 3-2 or worse would be a disappointment (but not surprising) to me.
Week 8 SP+:
13. Clemson
25. Virginia Tech
37. Duke
48. Georgia Tech
51. Syracuse
66. UVA (lol)
If I were to adjust my above prediction, which is the same as I did in the last 8 games prediction thread, I would go 5-0 before going to 3-2.
ESPNs Matchup Predictor has the following likelihoods for a Virginia Tech win:
Georgia Tech - 64%
Syracuse - 62.5%
Clemson - 33%
Duke - 65.1%
UVA - 74.1%
If my Communications degree math is correct, the chance of us winning all 4 non-Clemson games is 19.3%. The chance of us going 5-0 is 6.4%.
FWIW the Kelley Ford ratings updated today like our chances a little bit better than ESPN FPI, with 7% to go 5-0 and 34% for 4-1 or better. VT predicted to end the season with the 4th best record in the ACC behind traditional powers Miami, Clemson, and *checks notes* SMU.
edit: also of note is these ratings hilariously give VT a higher chance of getting to 7 ACC wins than FSU getting 3 ACC wins
Man.... I like those odds. They're right where we want them to be. Why? Because, VT is the Upside Down of college football.
I like your style.
Also, these are just computer algorithms, based on what we've done this season. I think even the most glass half empty VT fan can recognize that the team is playing much better recently than earlier in the season. And we've seen slow starts and strong finishes with Pry's teams, for better or for worse. I don't think it's impossible that we go 4-1, or even 5-0 to be honest.
My original point really was just that we will be playing better opponents to close the season than I think most of us would have predicted at the beginning of the season.
Top 5 conference champions are guaranteed an autobid, so unless one or more G5 conference champions were ranked above us, we're guaranteed a top 4 seed (which comes with a bye)
I would almost rather sneak in as an at-large for a playoff game in Bburg. It would be epic.
Don't look at the rankings then. If they stay the way they are trending there will be more than one G6 conference champions above us were we to finish 10-3.
Boise State, Army, Navy, Liberty, UNLV, Memphis, Tulane, Cincinnati are all ranked or receiving votes.
Unless it's an undefeated Miami or Clemson, the ACC champion is 100% getting left out of the playoffs. Mark it down. If we win out and win the conference (super long shot imo) we won't sniff the cfp.
I believe the ACC campion is in no matter what. Doesn't matter if they have 5 losses. They're in
Top 4 conference champs get in so as long as our champ is ranked higher than a g5 we are good.
No - the top 5 get guaranteed autobids, and the top 4 get first round byes.
Sorry my mistake
No way there's two g5 champs that finish above a 10-3 ACC champ. This has never happened in the modern history of the sport.
Have you not watched the last 3 miami games? Uga vs texas? The seeding has already begun by conference front offices via black and white stripes. This entire season so far has been unprecedented.
I believe you also said there's no way an undefeated FSU gets left out. And then it happened. I'm telling you that it doesn't fucking matter what has happened before. If the ACC champion isn't Miami or Clemson the ACC champion isn't going to be in the playoff. This argument will likely never be tested, tho, because I don't think anyone else besides one of those two will win the league
po-tay-to, po-tah-to
obligatory....
Clemson - 8 spots and Miami- 11 spots ahead of Boise State today. Clemson has 1 loss and get Louisville at home, and a decent USCe team to end the year. Boise is not going to leapfrog them. Miami- well their remaining schedule is a cake walk. FSU, Duke, Wake, Cuse, GT. They aren't losing any of those games with Cam Ward pulling shit out of his ass every game- falling down completing throws, etc. He looks like fucking Mahomes. GT is not beating them, Cuse is not beating them. So There is no way Boise passes both of those teams. As for VT, we are not winning out, so we don't factor in. Too many mental breakdowns, too many mistakes, the defense still gives up too many chunk plays for this team to win out IMO.
Duke hasn't not beaten anyone with a winning record their best win is 1pt over UNC.
Cuse lost to Stanford, but they are UNLVs only loss and the dome sucks so its and issue
UVA's best win is coastal Carolina. They also needed a big 4th quarter to beat BC. So it's not like they're world beaters.
GT's only win against a tram with a winning record is Duke, where well one of the teams had to win that game.
Yeah I started looking at that too this weekend and realized most of those teams haven't played anybody (paauuuulll...).
Watching Duke I think we can win that one. GT is the one I'm most concerned about right now. Chalking up Clemson as a loss.
Haven't watched Syracuse and we are Jekyl and Hyde with them. So we'll see.
That goddamn dome. If the game was in Blacksburg I think we'd win. But in cuse, until we prove otherwise, it's always a loss
Bingo. I think we either go 3-2 or 4-1 honestly. Clemson/Syracuse being the 2 possible losses, Clemson being most likely (although I still feel pretty good about it as of now). Weird shit always seems to happen to us at that dome....
Did you not watch VT go from 28-0 to 28-21 the other night? With 3 bonehead turnovers, no discipline, etc? NOTHING is a given with this team. Margin of error still razor thin. Nobody outside of this board would be surprised if we lost to GT- nobody. I'm not mentioning the carrier dome.
Meant as a reply to EasyGeezie above.
I hope you're right! But it's @Syracuse and @Duke. Playing at Duke
probablydoesn't matter, but I might like our chances at home vs Clemson better than vs Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. 4-1 would be quite feat if we're being honest, but not impossible the way the team has been playing!Tech has a team that could win them all or lose them all. That being said 2 and 3 is what I expect. Close game loses continue.
"the ACC has the most 1 score games"
The way we play, that is very bad for us.
Dark humor joking aside. we need to play a whole lot better in close games if we are ever going to be a truly good team.
By the way, speaking of the conferences and bias, rankings just released. There are 10 teams that are undefeated. None in the SEC. Yet 2 of the top 5 and 4 of the 10 top spots are SEC teams.
Edit: and to clarify, no, I don't think Liberty, Army, Navy - or even Indiana, Illinois, BYU or Iowa State - are likely to beat Georgia or Texas or even Alabama, but I really wish the results on the field had at least as much emphasis as pre-season perception and bias.
What's the point of this thesis? Are you suggesting that more fans? Are you suggesting that TV networks should pay conferences with closer games more than conferences with Premier brand names?
I mean, sure, all else being equal. A close game is better than a not close game, but rarely all else equal.
Since when did i need a point to argue on a sports website?
You don't... I guess, it just seems abundantly obvious that close games are preferable to not close games. So... is there a deeper point here? Or did you just come here to say close games are better than not close games?
That's fine if that's the case, just curious if I should be reading any deeper than that?
The deeper point is that the ACC has more close games and thus is more entertaining to watch than other leagues.
Maybe not a question that you meant to be raised, but I feel it's worth asking: do TV networks really care about the entertainment value of each game? Each league's series of games?
My gut says, for the most part, they couldn't care less. It's about how many eyeballs are on the screen.
I agree, but if everyone watches the ACC because it's more entertaining then TV will follow
Close games do mean excitement.
It's true.
But there is also a case to be made for the fun of an upset, as long as you're not a fan of the team being upset.
How many upsets are blow outs? Vandy over Bama, KY vover ole miss, NIU over ND, all 1 score games.
I agree upsets over teams not named Virginia Tech are great, but they're alk close games too
So I've continued to mull on this for a couple days now (because what else would I do with my time?) and I keep coming back to this:
To me, the competitiveness (ie; how close the score is) is just one piece of why I choose to watch a game.
As someone who tends to find most non-VT ACC games boring, and as someone who will tune into an SEC game between two mediocre teams, or a fun G5 game - I just don't think how close a game is really matters. I'm looking for:
I tuned in to Duke/FSU not because it was a good/close game, but because I find this entire FSU saga - both the on-field stuff and the wider college-football-internet conversation (where you at @321nole?!?! You caused this curse) - absolutely hilarious.
You can't view individual college football games in a vacuum. They are episodes in a series that is part of a cinematic universe. It's like one of those episodes of Game of Thrones that is focused mostly on Tywin and Tyrion arguing - in a vacuum it's just two guys arguing. But in the context of the entire show, it's so much more.
Now, I recognize that your title states that your analysis is 'irrational', so you're clearly aware of this. But also, your post isn't exactly written to be tongue and cheek either.
Anyways thanks for doing this, I enjoy the discussion.
edit: punctuation
Well, you certainly watch for all those reasons.
But given those reasons, if the game is close it's more entertaining.