Just to be clear, I fully hope we beat the crap out of UVA and go on to win our bowl game. And I am personally NOT in the "fire Pry now" camp. I think he's done some things very well, and has underperformed in other aspects of the job. I'd be inclined to give him another year, even with a loss to UVA.
But I'm curious how Likely TKP thinks it will be that he gets fired with a potential loss to UVA. After all, a 5-7 finish will be an undisputed step back from last year, and one of the bigger disappointments in college football in 2024. On top of that, it's not like there's a ton of young talent just waiting to step up in 2025.
So what's the % chance he's fired with a loss tonight?
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Think it's very low. We just don't have the money to throw into buy outs. Plus, he's very well liked by donors and the administration (and players! And high school coaches). Say what you want, but likability goes a long way.
I think it's more likely how many people he'll be forced to replace.
No inside information, but I'd guess very low. He has the chance to reshape the coaching staff. Quick hooks are not VT's thing.
I'd be more afraid if we house them and look like the team we should have been all year, that no changes are forced.
Looks like this might have come true.
even if we had lost to UVA, I'd have been shocked if there were any changes
I'll be EVEN MORE shocked now. And what would REALLY shock me is any change made before the bowl game.
Pry doesn't have the impetus to fire Marve now that he has 4 more weeks of practices. And it's unlikely he's going to fire him after the bowl game. Especially if we win (which, we might, because I think Bowen, given the time, can score enough points to beat most teams that would be matched up to a 6-6 team)
Why is that? The bowl game (for a 6-6 team) is going to be early enough that we'll have plenty of time to hire a good DC afterwards. Most of the best DCs will be playing in later bowls than us.
Most of the best DC's aren't coming to VT to work for a coach who will be on the hot seat next year.
A lot of people seem to think that coaches and coordinators are like video cards - just pull out the 3060 and put in a 4080 and immediately get better FPS.
I do not think Pry's chair is a hot seat.
I think he needs to do something about defense backfield, safeties and Oline. Perhaps S&C.
Tossing Pry is baby/bathwater type territory.
Next year if he goes 6-6 he is probably gone, so that makes his seat hot going into next year.
Our single biggest problems have been linebacker play and defensive strategy. That points to one person. If any other coach gets fired to save the DC job it's unjust. Bette scheme/strategy and LB play/execution (even recruiting) would considerably increase our defensive production and wins.
Safety coach is who?
Pierson Prioleau
Think you misread where I said scheme and LB play.
Quick post of mine above was time constraint, I was at work. I'll be more clear.
Pierson Prioleau is Safety coach. Marve is LB coach.
In my opinion safety play was poor all season in approximate level as Linebacker play. As I understand it, linebackers and safeties are distinctly different. A safety may be considered a defensive back but not a linebacker. Let me know if that's incorrect and that's why my comment is poor.
Low to nil. Coordinators, hopefully different story.
Hopefully it's coordinatOR (singular). Despite a lot of criticisms I've seen about Bowen, he's averaging close to 30 points per game. If our defense could defend, we should be winning a lot more games.
I didn't say it during the Duke game, but on a couple of those long breakaway plays they had, I was reminded of some of our great defenses of the past. I seem to recall, even if someone got a long play, NOBODY beat all our players down the whole length of the field. We were just faster than everyone else. Maybe we should get Beamer's S&C coach back?
Hokies scored 28 or more points in nine games. That's not an offense problem.
But it could be a S&C problem. Which i think is part of the issue. The other part is we led at half time in many games and our 3rd quarter was a joke, it seems like our analysts aren't doing anything during the game. We should be fixing and adjusting and yet we look like we just got a pat on the back at half time and went back out there.
I've been wondering if it's just a matter of "coming down" during half-time. The guys loose their adrenaline and get into a physical doldrum of sorts.
I feel like it's almost playing to keep the lead rather than continuing to attack on defense. That was the sense I get watching, where the defensive playcalling seems to ease where the linebackers sit back and, I guess let the play come to them? They look lost and we get gouged for 5 yards at a time, where we seem to send everyone towards the line in the first half and meet the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage. Maybe that's not what's going on, but that's what it looks like to me. We seem to do that in the 3rd, and sometime in the 4th, it's like we realize the aggressiveness is what works and we start doing it again, and we stop them again.
Virginia Tech's offense averaged 29.7 points a game in 2024, which is tied for 53rd out of 133 in the country. The defense was tied for 44th in the country at 22.8 points allowed per game.
I don't think straight points per game ranking is that great of a stat. Teams like Jacksonville State, South Alabama, Texas State, North Texas, etc. all scored a lot of points, but who were they putting them up against? And some conferences (like the Big 12) seem to favor trying to outscore their opponents rather than play serious dense, so that skews things as well.
Regardless, looking at those rankings, I would say our offense is the problem. But watching games, and watching our offense and defense play, it felt like our offense wasn't the problem. Watching our D that could hold strong for awhile all of a sudden give up a bunch of big plays just felt inexplicable. And watching the games, it felt a lot more like our D was the problem, not our O. I know that's very scientific and technical, but it's not often you can give up 21or 28 points in the second half and win.
I can't blame the offense much. Bowen made adjustment for multiple quarterbacks and found things that work over the season. He had some bad games, but on average we scored at least 24 points.
He's also been scheming around a shit OL for 3 years.
The crazy part is some weeks they are great at running blocking, others pass blocking, but unfortunately always opposite of our planned offense. Some weeks they are just bad at both.
If you allow 7 points in the first quarter off the opposing teams opening drive- you allowed 7 points. If you allow 7 points to Vanderbilt late in the 4th to allow overtime, you allowed a back breaking losing 7 points. You catch my drift? We are losing every close game. We are getting dusted in the 3rd quarter because Marve is being out-adjusted every week. The defense is not good- especially when you need them to be. The offense? well yeah we aren't the best in the country but at least it makes sense. Bowen takes shots down field after sudden changes, he takes shots on second a short, he runs the ball inside for big yards, etc. It makes sense. Put better OL out there, and hes a good/better than average OC, IMO.
I'm just posting the stats for everyone to see, people can take them however they like.
But the idea that we have one good unit and one bad unit is just factually incorrect.
I'm not sure that anyone is saying, necessarily, that one unit is bad and one is good. I think it's just that by the eye test one unit is clearly more bad than the other.
ZERO comes to mind.
Very low, essentially zero. Not with the NIL settlement looming that will shake up our budget. If we lose, the pressure will be to reconfigure the staff, not fire Pry.
Will there still be pressure after a win to make staff changes? I'm hoping admin and donors are not blind and know that something needs to change to improve.
Let's hope so. This has been a significant below expectations season.
Get ready. If we win, I anticipate the staff to return intact. UVA is the bar for this program now to keep fans/donors happy.
If he writes in his note pad more than 3 times tonight, I would fire his ass
I know. Get the man an iPad. It's 2024 for gods sake.
No offense, but I honestly don't understand why people fixate on that. I take notes about important shit all the time, why is this an issue?
Bc people wanting him yelling at refs instead
What people really should be fixating on is what the hell is he writing in his notebook? It should be things like "Game 1: had two players with the same jersey number on field at same time." Then, in games 2-12, that should no longer be an issue.
But was that the case? No. We kept making the same dumb mistakes game after game. So my question remians: what the hell was he writing? Ideas for what hobbies to take up when he is fired in year 4?
It's really a shame, because I had high hopes for Pry. But now I think the book is out on him, and he's unfortunately just a stone cold loser. 1-13 or whatever it is now in one score games speaks for itself.
But we find ourselves in a situation where we literally cannot afford to get rid of him for another 1-2 years at a minimum. With another Whit special buyout hamstringing us, and the looming House settlement, we just don't have the cash. It's truly a sad time to be a VT football fan honestly. The rah rah talk from Pry has gotten old and won't move the needle anymore. And although staff changes may be coming (still have some doubt there though), I just don't know that he can get this turned around. Lame duck.
Regarding staff changes, if we win tonight, get ready to hear the circling of the wagons that we fought through adversity and beat our rival, heading to a bowl. We will get things turned around. If we lose, get ready to hear injuries as a major excuse. Not saying it isn't a factor, but it's not the whole story.
2 and whatever in one score games. Felton caught that ball.
I don't know, but I do know that if we have anything less than a 14 point lead after halftime, we'll lose.
This has a chance to age very nicely.
With hindsight, we fucked up not hiring Shane. Big time.
Don't think Shane would come back to work under Whit anyway from what I've heard.
I know the mechanics, still a fuck up. Punt Whit.
I thought Shane didn't want to be here?
This is what I've heard as well. Wants to create his own legacy, not follow his dad.
I also didn't think Shane was the right hire, but, I know nothing jon snow.
From what I have seen/heard, Shane would absolutely love to coach at VT. But the family is not keen on dealing with Whit again. Some hard feelings about how Frank's departure went down. But Shane also sees much more of a serious financial and organizational commitment to football at South Carolina and likes it down there. Until VT gets rid of Whit and wants to take football seriously, I doubt we see Shane interested in coming here.
There was the stink on him near the end of his dad's tenure as well because he's the one that took the Wakey-Leaks playbook.
I still believe him when he says he thought it was a joke and tossed it after receiving it.
Why would you even take it then? Is "No thanks" hard to say?
As a South Carolina native, I'm happy with Shane staying put at USCE and beating Cremson every year!
Uh, you should want Clemson beating them - gives credence to the ACC not being weak. We should want to win every game the ACC plays against any other conference.
Nah fuck clemson and go baby beamer. ACC is dead in the water anyway
I will vehemently root against Clemson in every sport after dealing with their disrespectful fans at the 2011 ACCCG. Yep, gonna hold that grudge forever.
Don't get me wrong, every fanbase has fans that are asshats, but I give zero damns about conference allegiance when it comes to that school.
Amen, fuck Clemson in any and all sports forever
Another reason the focus on the best conference/realignment sucks - I'm supposed to root for Miami, UVA, and FSU to win so our conference looks better? No way! I hope they lose every game 99-0.
Now more than ever its simply about money. Shane and every other coach want to be where they can waste 2 million on DJ Ugialai or 500K on Lynn Kidd. Shane wants to be where the money is- the SEC or B1G. It's all that matters now.
Exactly true. SEC is raking it in. One of my best friends has a co-worker, whose son is a true freshman at USC...he got a brand new truck, his son got a new Charger Hellcat (i think that is the verison)...and now USC is apparently starting to pay off family debt as part of their NIL package. They just bought a $700k house (or 7000 sq ft, can't remember exactly what he told me...it was one or the other), which USC is supposed to pay off this winter.
All of that is still technically illegal of course, but it's what the fans wanted. Scholarships have no value remember
I believe Shane would turn us down, even with a good relationship with Whit, if a better-funded SEC team was on the table...and if it was me, I would much rather build my own legacy at a different school than perpetually be in the shadow of my father.
Perhaps that's the case now, but I think there was an opportunity to snag him had Fuente been fired earlier, before Shane took the USCe job.
When was the opportunity? USCe fired Muschamp November 2020. If we fired Fuente during or after the COVID-season, we would have competed head to head with them.
We would have had to fire Fuente during the '18 or '19 season. We've talked about this a ton in the past but I'll reiterate here - 2018 was the biggest shitshow I've ever seen but most of it was out of Fuente's control. He also had his last Top 30 recruiting class locked up at that point.
The moment would have been after the 2019 Duke game.
Fuente should have been fired after 2018. Or at least, he should have been told to find a new OC or walk.
Yeah maybe that would have been the ideal time to get rid of Corn...But I'll list off the 2018 shitshow just for funsies:
1) Bud almost died
2) Galen Scott was fired for diverting program money to fund an extramartial affair before the season started (and the last minute replacement was one of the worst position coaching Bud has ever had).
3) Our top returning cornerback became academically ineligible before the season started
4) The other starting projected cornerback tore his Achillies before the season started
5) The projected starting WHIP linebacker was dismissed after a felony charge (again before the season started)
6) ECU decided to cancel their game with us in mid-September. Things got so chippy between programs that the rest of the VT/ECU series was cancelled.
7) During the ODU game (game 3/12), we lost our starting QB for the year after he broke his leg and Fuente dismissed our top pass rusher after he (allegedly) talked shit about an coach's disabled son
8) One of the highest rated defensive recruits on the roster requested to be redshirted after four games.
9) In one of the most embarrassing losses I can remember as a Virginia Tech fan, Georgia Tech beat us 49-28 without completing a pass (and only attempting one).
10) 14 players left to the transfer portal during or after the season (which was near the top of P5 football, remember the portal started in 2018). Turkey Bacon. Players on the active roster didn't want to beat Marshall and go to a bowl game.
11) It was revealed after the season that a freshman was suspended prior to the start of the 2018 season (and subsequently dismissed from the team) after he filmed a sex tape of himself and a woman without her consent.
Did I forget anything?
I do NOT remember that last one, despite the fact I evidently commented on the story. Wow.
8-10 are just straight up reasons Fu should've been fired. But the rest of these are legit. I didn't want him fired after 2018, but that Duke game the following year was enough to change my mind
good chance you did...with that kind of laundry list of shit you have to think it's a systemic issue - that number of bad-luck-occurrences just doesn't happen randomly to the same institution unless there are structural issues
I think that season showed how great Bud Foster was...it took him losing half of his starters, losing his co-DC (and replacing him with essentially a wasted position coach spot) and oh yeah, ALMOST FUCKING DYING for him to finally put out a bad defense.
yeah except for # 1- who gives a fuck? and BTW Devon Hunter couldn't play dead in a western, so that is meaningless. Recruit better players, recruit better depth so when one fucking player is suspended the program doesn't fold. Prepare a backup QB so you can beat a 3-8 ODU team. Dial up one fucking defensive stop against a kid that quit football to be a priest. I mean seriously. This list is a fucking joke for a major football program. Our roster was such shit, that 3 players missing and we fucking sucked.
I think there's 0 chance Pry is fired now and even after next year.
I could never root for UVA to beat VT. But I want somebody in the AD to wake the f up and force some staff changes one way or the other.
0.0%
But the heat becomes scalding under Whit's seat
Curious why you feel that way about Whit's seat?
All indications from "those in the know" is that the university administration and big time donors are happy with Whit?
To clarify, I mean why scalding hot over just warmer?
Whit will not get a third chance to hire a football coach. That means Whit needs to go before Pry goes.
But who has to fire Whit? Isn't is Sands? I do not believe he has the stones, if that is the case.
He likely doesn't. Has done wonders on the academic side and is probably looking toward retirement in the next few years. Probably doesn't want to have to deal with firing and hiring a new AD.
Whit won't get fired. He raises too much money. Most likely scenario is won't renew his contract when it's up.
Lol, that puts us around 2029 hiring a new AD. Might not be much of a football program left by then.
Let me say that another way. Whit isn't getting fired...yet. If Pry is given more time (changing coordinators, etc), Whit would get most of the same leash. If whit gets fired, Pry is next. Would see that as see how next year goes with changes. As said before, we just don't have the money to make changes with massive buyouts...we have to put every penny into the programs.
Oh yeah...forgot Whit has a sizable buyout himself. Paid top 25 AD salary.
Eh, I'm not buying that. The one that would have run us totally in the ground is Fuente if we'd kept him. Pry has done some things that have turned the program around. We have a better support staff and recruiting has gotten better (Fuente got some good players to commit, but a lot of the better ones flipped, at least Pry is keeping most of the players he gets to commit).
Our offense has been scoring more points year over year, and by a decent margin. Yeah, we're not winning the within one-score games, but we also have fewer games that were losses by more than one score, so we're not getting beat as bad as we were last year. Pry also beats the teams he's supposed to beat (remember some of those head scratcher losses to G5 opponents under Fuente?).
This year we've also had Drones AND Tuten AND Schlee banged up. Yeah, the season is disappointing, but it's not a catastrophe like FSU is having, especially after their 13-1 season just last year.
It took Beamer how many years before he won at Tech? And yeah, I know we had sanctions, but Pry is coming in with a roster with 10 scholarship running backs, what felt like 20 scholarship receivers, and whatever else we had (I believe a lot of players that left the program that Fuente recruited went to G5 or FCS programs, and even then barely contributed). And we didn't have any meaningful recruiting relationships from everything we've heard, Pry and his staff had to go build them. So I wonder which is actually worse, the sanctions or what Fuente left us with.
Fuente had a disastrous recruiting and roster management system, but Pry is just a flat out bad coach. I've seen enough now and he cannot manage a game or hire a staff capable of competing at a high level. We are scoring more points than we ever have - wow, everyone is scoring more points. And VT historically has had bad offense, so anything is a step in the right direction there.
We need to stop mirroring everything here to the Beamer era. Frank Beamer is not walking through that door. Given the competitive nature of college football today, you are given 3-4 years max and then most programs cut bait and move on. We don't have an eternity to wait around for Pry to work out because he talks with a SWVA accent and makes us feel nostalgic. All of that is window dressing - he has failed miserably on the field, and there are no indications of him improving there. We hired a lifelong coordinator who had no interest from anywhere as an HC except here due to connections. Let's level set here a bit. Yes, we have hired more support staff. But we are just scratching the surface on where we need to be to play big boy football on Saturday.
Zero, but some big changes would be indicated.
The odds are the same as him refusing to make staff changes. But I think we'll have 2 or more
Zero: House Settlement coming, and by accounts, he's well liked by a lot of people who write checks.
And as we all know, rich people getting their taints tickled means more to VT than actual wins and losses
I'm starting to think a lot of the people who write checks for VT are the problem just as much as Whit.
He hangs out at the Blacksburg Country Club with them....and afterwards
what does the "... and afterwards" mean?
I hope he is pressured to make some changes if he doesn't already have plans to.
At an absolute minimum we need a new OL coach. I'd like a new DC. They have shown flashes but haven't been able to hold on for whatever reason. Perhaps it's the adjustments in which case DC needs to go to.
But he won't be fired.
I wholeheartedly agree with those two positions being the biggest needs, although DC would likely mean staff changes under the new DC as well. Jones had a few NFL draftees he coached at Duke, so if you can get guys drafted consistently from a school like Duke, would think he knows what he's doing. Just checked the ACC page for stats and we're #6 in passing defense and #13 in rushing defense.
I'm fine with that. There is no coach on defense that I feel we would be taking a hit if they got replaced. No unit is crushing it. DL is doing decent but I think that's more to do with the players we brought in there than the scheme or whatever.
yeah, i am definitely not an expert on our roster, but without APR and Peebles next year...and then some graduations, i don't think our DL looks very promising next year. Price can coach pretty good, i think, but the recruiting has not been there. hopefully he can get some difference-makers in the portal.
I think the question being asked like this is a troll job.
ugh
No. We don't talk about a loss to UVA, and ESPECIALLY don't wish for it!
Not sure where you got that, it's literally the opposite of what I said.
This entire staff should be fired just for not starting Pop lol
Wrong thread I'm dumb
Coaching doesn't matter til the talent level rises, which it did this year. We were competitive in every game except Clemson. I think the tide is rising so let's see if Pry can keep the talent levels rising. Clock management will come.
Pry did not have any noticeable coaching errors to me on Saturday.
I would have thought pretty low but with the win this is moot.
I still hope Pry fires Marve. Aside from some standout dudes, our defense is not very good. Uva wasn't good enough to take advantage but holding them to 17 isn't a feather in the cap for a serious DC
I'm not convinced Marve is the entire problem, or the problem at all. Our secondary has been a challenge all year long, and we happen to have a lot of young and/or less-experienced coaches (Pierson Prioleau and Gouveia-Winslow are really new to the coaching side). I'm not saying that we need to be patient and let the problems fester. I'm just saying when we look at the challenges we had this year, there needs to be a little more attention at specifically where the challenges on defense were at, and make the appropriate changes.
We need adjustments all over, and that's where I'm looking to see if Pry does the things that Fuente wouldn't and Beamer struggled with. Those adjustments I would hope result in something like 1+ more TD scored per game on Offense, and 1+ less TD allowed per game on Defense. Imagine the year we would have had with a 14pt positive swing in each game... I'll do the math for everyone - we're 12-0, and given how the rest of the FBS played-out this year we're ranked #2 going into the ACCCG, and a lock for the 12-team playoff. That's how close we were this year.
Yes having the 13th scoring offense and 8th scoring defense would be good
There are plenty of problems, and I expect there have to be changes.
Everyone crying about us underachieving need to understand that part of the expectations about our season were based on a perceived weakness of schedule. If you were building expectations based on returning production, you've forgotten that with some players, no amount of polishing will stop a turd from being a turd. We started the season with a relatively weak strength of schedule. We are finishing the season in the mid 20's.
If you go back and read or listen to some of the people picking us as dark horses, they point blank said it was based on the schedule.
While everybody expected more this season. The vaunted ACC network commentators did have a good point at kickoff.
VT has been in every single game this year. Last year we got completely gobsmacked at least twice without ever being a threat to win. Louisville and FSU iirc.
We lost to three 9-3 teams and a 10-2 team. We beat three teams with teams with winning records.
Rutgers was our worst game. And Vandy was avoidable 1 penalty away from winning.
If you compare to last year we did better.
The teams that beat us were a combined 50-22
The teams we beat were 36-36.
Last year, the teams that beat us were a combined 47-25
The teams we beat were 28-44
Our ACC opponents for next year were a combined 48-48 this year, but only 3 teams had losing records (UVA, Wake, FSU)
Our non-conference schedule went a combined 25-23, with ODU and Wofford being the only teams with losing records (both 5-7)
As shitty as it sounds, while 6-6 may not "look" like an improvement year-after-year, we're doing it against better and better competition, so there has been improvement, just not in the W-L column, which is all that matters.
Though, if we beat all the teams who have losing records AND we beat 3 teams who have winning records, like we did this year, we go 8-4.
Last year, we were 0-3 in 1 score games, lost 1 by 19, 1 by 22, and 1 by 31.
In losses, we were a net -93 or -15.5; in wins, we were a net +135, or +22.5
This year we were 0-5 in one score games, and our worst loss was by 10.
In losses, we were a net -34, or -5.66; in wins we were a net +117, or +19.5
So, this year, we played a tougher schedule and played them tighter. We lost small and won big. Last year, we played a weaker overall schedule, winning big and losing big.
Two years ago, we won small, and lost big, with the average win being by 12.7, and our average loss being by -12.5, and only one of our wins was against a winning team.
Every year has shown improvement.
I know we give Pry shit about not winning close games, but in 2020 and 2021, Fu was only +1 in 6 years in one score games.
Even Beamer was only +1 during the bowl streak, and prior to that he was 8-16-2
Where are you seeing our SOS in the 20s? ESPN has us at 47
The harder than expected schedule was part of it, but not the only factor. We lost multiple games in disappointing and unnecessary fashion - whether due to poor game management (Vandy and Miami) or inability to hold leads (Syracuse). I think it's fair to say that not only were there 2 or 3 games we could have won, but probably should have won.
Also, we were CFP dark horses largely because we returned a really efficient and effective QB (Drones), a stud running back (Tuten), a great kicker (Love) and a dominant defensive lineman (APR), and were deep and talented in other positions like D Line, cornerback and WR. When you return 21 of 22 starters, it's reasonable to hope that even the weaker positions would improve, simply due to having a ton of experience if nothing else.
The problem was Drones effectively stagnated or actually got worse than last year before getting injured. Tuten got injured, and teams started scheming to neutralize APR.