The 16-8, 7-6 Ladies travel to Chapel Hill today to take on #12 UNC 21-4, 9-3. The game is an ACC Network extra broadcast. UNC is 11.5 point favorite with the over/under at 134.5; the Matchup Predictor gives the Hokies an 18.5% chance.
UNCs four losses are all to ranked teams: #7 UConn, #19 GA Tech, #2 Notre Dame, and #23 FSU. They have wins over #8 Kentucky, #13 Duke in OT and RV Cal. For comparison, we beat GA Tech and lost to Duke, Notre Dame and FSU. In other common opponents, all of which UNC beat, we beat Miami, Pitt, and Wake Forest.
UNCs starting line up will be 2 grad students, a senior, a junior and a sophomore. No 1 6'1" grad G/F Alyssa Ustby is their leading scorer and rebounder at 11.4 points and 9.5 boards per game. No. 5 6'3" senior F/C Maria Gakdeng is second in scoring and rebounding with 11 and 7. No. 20 6'0" grad guard Lexi Donarski is third in scoring and the primary threat from beyond the arc; she shoots 42% overall and 40% from three. 65% of her shots are from three. No. 10 5'7" sophomore guard Raniya Kelly and no.24 5'10" junior guard Indya Nivar round out the starting five.
UNC shoots 43% overall. 34% from three and scores 72.4 ppg. They hold their opponents to 39%, 28% and 55 ppg. Barring foul problems, their starters will play 22-29 minutes. They have had 5 players foul out; Ustby once, Gakdeng twice and Nivar twice. They don't turn the ball over much, only 12.7 per game; but they have caused 18.1 per game. The Hokies are going to have to be careful with the ball tonight.
The Ladies are going to face a challenge tonight. The Tar Heels have three girls that shoot the three well and Gakdeng playing in the paint. Perimeter defense is going to be key. Winning is not out of the question; but they are going to have to play very well to stay with the Tar Heels. Again offense will not be the limiting factor for the Ladies; lapses on defense will cost us the game. I could not find anything about Micheaux; but they have looked pretty good using Peterson and Ramiya at center. It would nice to be surprised by a win tonight.
LET'S GO HOKIES!
Comments
Really sad I couldn't make it to the game tonight.... had it circled for a while and then running up on a deadline at work and ended up getting sick :(
Hope you feel better soon. In the meantime, if you can, watch on ACCNX and follow along here on the game thread. And make a bunch of comments!!!
LET'S GO!!
HOKIES!!!
I sure wish Carleigh could make a layup.
we are throwing up so many prayers and then just giving up open looks on the other end
Getting out worked and outshot. UNC 60% from outside.
All their 3s have been unguarded
We've missed 6 layups and are not closing out on their 3's.
We miss a point blank put back, and they drain an open 3. The whole game so far in one sequence.
pretty well sums it up
Ladies struggling to make anything inside. Also taking some Ill advised shots.
throwing up prayers because we can't get any open looks with their defense
only down 37-32 at half is pretty good considering how badly we shot for runs
Yeah...this game really coulda gotten away early in the second quarter
We got Ustby and Gakdeng out with two fouls and could not take advantage.
utsby was playing the majoirty of the half
But with two fouls and we did not go at her.
ustby should have picked up a 4th on a very moving screen there
Finally, with a chance to tie or take the lead, we slowed down and took our time to run the offense and get a good shot. We've been throwing up prayers or turning it over. Good situational awareness on that possession.
Hokies are fighting hard.
ugly end to the 3rd
gave up 5 points in the last 25 seconds
taking the Carys 3 off the board for a moving screen is painful... would have been a 4 point lead for us
I was looking, but I didn't see the screen move.
Suddenly it's 18-12 in fouls and we have three with four.
I really don't like nelson's shot selection
Insanely fast calling that a tie up
Wasted so much time trying to get a 3 when we could have gotten 2 and fouled
Would have liked to have seen something quick going to the basket with the possession with 27 seconds left. When that possession stalled, it forced the TO with 16 seconds left. Couldn't really tell what action they were trying to run, but it was obvious they were trying to get a 3 off for the tie. With UNC stifling the perimeter, would have liked something going at the basket and then foul to extend the game. Great effort again, just ran out of gas. Kelly is a legit player who has burned us before. This loss doesn't hurt us, but would have been a huge Quad 1 win had they pulled it out.
Scoring 4 points in the last 7 minutes of a game is not how you pull out a win
Final 7 minutes we were outscored 13-4
They had six more offensive rebounds and out scored us 13 to 3 on second chance points.
We tied them on FG% 43-43
Lead them on 3FG% 62-35
Lead them on FT% 89-69
We probably missed ten layups.
In most instances when they had a turnover, we then had a turnover or missed shot.
We coulda, shoulda, won that game.
But hey! We took the #12 team to the wire. So I'm proud of the girls. It's been an exciting ride.
The team doesn't have all the bugs worked out, Rose's first game back from injury and she played like it. But they have no quit.
They fought hard and had a chance to win. The ball would just not fall for Wenzel. She had some good drives but the ball just bounced out. I like her fearless attitude, I think it rubs off on the rest of the team. Hopefully they can sweep the rest of their games and make into the NCAA tourney.
Unfortunately this statement is true on Wenzel in almost every game. No fear going to the hoop but she is awful at finishing layups.
The good news is there are teams that are stupid enough to foul her assuming she would make the layup. Film study would say let her miss the layup she is better at free throws.
I think the team has proven they should be in the dance this year. They almost beat the #12 team at home and were never out of it.
Here is our NET -
45 46 Virginia Tech ACC 16-8 5-2 1-2 10-4 1-6 1-0 4-2 10-0
Strongest bubble metric is 5-2 in true road games. 2-6 in Q1 and 2 is an absolute killer. Keep in mind, the committee doesn't look at VT in a bubble (pardon the pun) they will compare us to similar teams. The tourney resume is perilous at this moment.
If they win the tourney the numbers don't matter. Regardless, for a cobbled together team with a new coach to Tech they have done well. A couple of close losses to good teams, but more worryingly was the bad losses to bad teams.
Yep, the losses to Syracuse and uvalol at home will keep them out of the tournament now, unless they finish strong and win a couple games in the acc tourney. Need to stay out of the 8/9 slot, which is at best one and done.
Well of course. The SWAC champ with a NET of 321 will get in if they win the SWAC tourney. That's how this works.