Fucking amazing podcast by Stephan Godfrey and Parker Flemming (@statsofwar). The talk scheme, they talk advanced analytics, and just general narrative around offensive line.
This summary won't do the pod justice, you should listen yourself, but the big takeaways:
- For the first time in the history of CFB, there is evidence that - specifically on the offensive line - raw talent matters far more than continunity. This is evidenced by the fact that there is an inverse relationship between snaps played together (amongst offensive linemen) and winning percentage. The explanation is that if you have 5 guys playing together 85% of the time, it's likely not because those 5 guys work so well together; it's because you don't have any depth, and in all likelihood there is a weakness amongst those 5 guys.
- Offensive schemes are simplifying because offensive linemen are more evenly distributed across the sport. The RPO is the easiest way to deal with this problem (along with shifts/misdirection/motion). They talk a lot about the % of protections called, etc
- When looking for OL in the portal, you need a scheme fit for the player. As a result, coaches are dumbing down their offenses in order to make it easier for OL to quickly learn the system. We're seeing less variety in offensive schemes/playcalls (per PFF - again, there is data backing this up). Disappointing for fans that offenses will likely continue to become more homogenous over the next five years.
- Paradoxically, the dearth of offensive linemen means that development is more important than ever before, but due to the portal, it's even harder to retain (and thus develop) talent than ever before. Obviously, no one has solved for this issue yet.
Really fascinating listen, highly recommend.
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Was waiting for you to post this!
Interesting perspective. Thanks for posting. Stats in isolation are often misleading.
I suppose you want talent AND continuity, or at least some depth.
Thanks for reading/listening!
Godfrey/Flemming's argument is that no one has both continuity AND depth any more due to the portal. Pre-2020, OL would sit for 3 years, and teams could develop continuity while developing players. Now, the portal has allowed OL talent to be more evenly dispersed across teams (aka players leave as soon as they are good enough to start anywhere).
So either you can rotate 6-8 players (like OSU or ND), or you have 4-5 guys who can play then a big drop off (like VT, Michigan State, Oklahoma or virtually any non-playoff program).
This wasn't explicitly mentioned in the pod, but 10+ years ago, it was pretty common to have a first string line and a second string line - the idea being that you didn't want to swap out individuals because the line was always treated as a unit. This is what the pod meant when they called offensive line a 'weak link position'.
That is no longer case: Now - due to (a) fluid rosters and (b) simplified schemes created/deployed in response to fluid rosters - you're seeing coaches play the best 5 individuals instead of the best 5-person unit.
Thanks for the rec! This was a great listen.
Their most recent episode is also really interesting, but different - They talk about how news broke that McNeese Basketball Coach Will Wade was leaving for NC State broke out right before the tournament, and how it (a) wasn't a distraction for the team, and (b) how Wade, his players, and the McNeese program all wound up in a better spot despite being 'left behind by their coach'.
So its official, the pinnacle for McNeese State basketball is winning an opening round game against a nothing suck ass coach and having their ball boy be more famous than the team. Thats the top of the mountain for McNeese hoops. What a great/better place to be.
What do you think the ceiling of a small school (~6500 students) in Lake Charles, Louisiana should be?
Davidson... 1900 students, billion dollar NIL war chest. Made it to an elite 8. McNeese is where they are- clinging on to beat Brad Brownell - lol- ONLY because their coach is a cheating scum that should be out of coaching. That is literally (cheating) the only reason you know the schools name. Its actually fitting that their fat ball boy is the face of the program- a nothing, cheating program. Hang a banner for beating Brownell by 2 though.
This rant is needlessly insulting to the ball boy and I am no less baffled that this is something you are allowing to upset you.
Was there any sort of significant outlier about that Davidson team making an Elite 8 run? A generational basketball player who is still among the best players in the NBA, perhaps?
No more an outlier than this 2 year McNeese run... did they hire a scum cheating show-cause coach? checks notes.. yep.
If you listened to the episode, you'd also see that recruiting has improved - they've landed three four-star players out of the portal - largely in part due to the recruiting infrastructure and fundraising that Wade did while coaching there.
So, the small school with 6.5k enrollment in bumfuck Louisiana that has made the tournament 4 times since 1972 (never higher than a 12 season - which they did twice under Wade) and has only made the second round of the tournament once (last year), might actually be poised to have one of (if not) the best season in school history AFTER their coach was 'poached' by an ACC program BECAUSE of the work he did while he was there.
So poised, their coach left for a mid ACC job the second he could. I bet you a case of beer of your choice that they don't make the NCAAs next year.
They might not. Regardless, it seems like Wade left the program in a significantly better place than he found it 🤷♂️
They significantly cheated more under wade. No coincidence
Did McNeese under Wade do anything that other programs weren't doing? Like, I know that collective money is in fact pay-for-play, and that is frowned upon by the ncaa, but... literally every FBS school is doing it - Bama, VT, Marshal, etc - what did McNeese st do that we didn't?
Here is what McNeese did in basketball- nothing ever... then hired a coach that has cheated everywhere he has been, was investigated by the FBI for paying bribes and running a racket, found to have violated a million rules, was placed on show cause.. then won some games. You are a college graduate. Use that brain.
Except paying players is allowed in the form of collectives now. He got McNeese to pony up meaning he doesn't have to break rules anymore to get talent to this sort of school. Just because someone broke rules under a different system doesn't mean they continue to when that system changes in a way that benefits them.
If NIL (effectively pay for play) still wasn't allowed then your logic would absolutely work! But that's not the case.
Except in the cess pool that is college basketball, I am supposed to believe Will fucking Wade is John Wooden between the lines and plays by the rules now. lol.
Funny that you use Wooden as an example seeing as how he had the one-man NIL collective named Sam Gilbert taking care of his players which he chose to ignore. UCLA with Wooden and Gilbert were basically a prototype of what we have now, except now it's just out in the open.
How dare you besmerch the name of John Wooden, if my grandfather was still alive he' d be very upset
Dang man...what did Will Wade do to you? Have some hate in your heart for him.
My thought with all this Will Wade talk is:
Granted, I have no interest in basketball, but still.