It's season preview SZN!
The analysis was mid at best, but Dan and Ty (1) are high on the Hokies (like... 8ish wins high) and (2) shouted TKP/French's article on Seifkis so ALL ABOARD THE HYPE TRAIN!!!
TLDR:
- VT went 3-and-out one out of every three drives last year, and they think Healthy Drones + experienced OC can fix that
- They are high on the RB transfer from Bowling Green
- They are intrigued by our defense (but really failed to understand how bad we were on D last year - didnt acknowledge that Marve was fired)
- They don't know what to think of the OL
Forums:
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Comments
Our defense was a complete mess for reasons that I cant explain. We had two outstanding Dlinemen and two really good corners. How do you mess that up?
By rotating linebackers instead of coaching them and calling blitzes at inopportune times.
Sooo.....coaching.
Glad we got that checkbox filled.
The LB play is a major question mark still , depite having multiple LB coaches on staff last year. This was the biggest flashing signal I saw for needing new coaches.
Talent issue there- not coaching. Brumfield couldn't play, The light hasn't come on for McDonald in 4 plus years, Will Johnson is small and not athletic, spencer is too small and plays to that size... need better players- period. Woodson is "OK" at best. Keller is the lone guy that could play for other ACC teams.
Brumfield was a beast for me, though, on PlayStation.
Brumfield was limited by was the only guy consistently running to the ball and not getting washed out because or lack of effort. If Kellar did that he'd be on an all acc team.
8 wins with this defense and new coordinators would be a smashing success
I mean, if this team wins 8, it implies that new coordinators are an upgrade, which isn't a stretch imo
True, but there is often a curve with learning the new system etc. Regardless, a winning season would surpass my expectations. 8 wins would surpass them quite a bit
That's double the wins im expecting
Both Coordinators should be an upgrade over what was here. Bowen IMO largely looked good mostly in comparison to Marve.
But they lost alot of talent...NFL-level talent (that was largely squandered) and while we brought in lots of bodies in the Portal, it remains to be seen if they can replace the production.
With Drones there are 2 obvious questions...has he really progressed in the passing game? Can he stay healthy? In 2024, the answers were no and no.
On paper, the OL should look more competent. The D...who knows?
Truth is, nobody really knows what this team is going to be--- and I bet that's honestly true for most non-Blue Blood programs in the Wild West Era.
Anything around .500 would be expected, but is that enough to justify keeping Pry around?
With all the turn-over on the team and the new systems to be installed, I'd absolutely want to keep Pry if we finish with a winning record. This is based on the assumption that we do not continue seeing terrible clock management, being badly outplayed in the opening games, being badly outplayed adjustment-wise. I mean if we should have been 10-3 but lose 3 games due to bad coaching to be 7-6, no, then I'd not want him back. But we don't have the talent to win that many games with bad coaching, so I'd by 99% confident that finishing with a winning record, even 6-6 followed by a bowl win to go 7-6, means the coaching has stepped up.
I dont see 3 straight 6-6 season as stepping up. Though 6-6 just means Pry is acting his wage. He's like 45th in pay which is about 6-6 for P4 teams
I see your point, but have to say that all 6-6 records are not created equal. Last year, after 7-6 and so many people returning, 6-6 + losing a bowl was a major failure. This coming season, with so many new players and learning new systems on offense and defenses, I think 6-6, especially coupled with a bowl win to be 7-6, would be pretty good.
To what I think is your underlying point, yes, Pry has to show that he can be better than that. And show it pretty quickly. But 7-6 in 2025-26 should be good enough to coach in 2026-2027 and then he has to show he and his staff can elevate the wins further or be gone. He can't have another failure like last season relative to the W/L expectations.
"that all 6-6 records are not created equal"- disagree- they pretty much are, and here is why. If we beat South Carolina, Miami and Florida State in 25... that's a damn good season right? well if those are 3 of your wins and you still go 6-6 that means you lost to some dogshit teams. So its the same as losing those 3 and having your best win by far be GT. meh. When you are 6-6 nothing is good or glamourous about it if you ended up there.
So if you take over a team that is 2-10 and go 6-6 vs. if you take a team that is 11-2 and you go 6-6 that is the same meh result?
I understand what I put above is an exaggerated over-statement of where Pry is, but I definitely think after 2023-2024 season of 3-8, going 6-6 + winning the bowl game was clearly moving up and fairly impressive. Last year going 6-6 and losing the bowl game was definitely not. My point is that with all the changes and the new system and losing much of what top-end talent we actually had, 6-6 (especially if it is followed by a bowl win) is doing a pretty good job by the coaching staff - assuming we are not losing some of those games on bad coaching. Yes, he has to elevate the wins further in 2026-2027. But what where you are coming from does impact how a record looks. We all agree he is running out of time to step it up.
If Pry goes 6-6 this year that is a huge disappointment., IMO. Spinning wheels at the very best. And in this day and age, the bowl game is basically the scout team vs. the opponents scout team. I don't know why that particular game is important as a sign of progress? Because we can't win "bowls"? That is an indictment in and of itself. If you are 6-6, you are playing in the birmingham, military, etc bowls with your scout team - its a total crap shoot. We as fans made that mistake when we beat Tulane in the bowl. We ignored that they didn't have any of their good players playing and their coach left.
I put a lot more weight on the bowl games than most because VT has been so bad in bowl games over the years. And when you lose the last game, it just leaves a foul taste in the mouth. And so much of winning them - even many years ago - was based on how focused you had the team and did they want to play. To me bad records in bowl games meant poor planning and unmotivated players.
I get that- and agree- my point is that this year if we make a bowl, the team playing that night won't be the same team that got there- it won't be the same players to motivate, it won't be the same talent. Half the starters won't suit up for the game- that's a conservative estimate. I just don't see how you can judge anything from it. If we win, Pry motivated the scout team to beat another scout team. OK. If we lose, the other teams scout guys are better than ours- which tells you nothing.
I buy that not all 6-6 seasons are the same, but as far as VT's 2025 season goes, it really doesn't matter.
With our schedule in 25 6-6 is like any other 6-6- crap/mid. Period. I agree that if we played an SEC schedule that included 8 top 30 teams, yeah winning 4 of those would be pretty good. But in the ACC- all 6-6 means is that you lost to multiple shit teams. No other way to slice it.
Agreed.
I'm not sure 6-6 in SEC is better, it's probably true, but ACC plays more P4 teams in OOC than any other conference. In the SEC you could have beat an absolute terrible MSU and a really not good KY or not good Auburn and then 3 G4 teams and a FCS team. An SEC team should be able to beat some bad G4s just on talent alone.
That's kinda what I meant by the exceptions prove the rule... yea, FSU is playing Bama and UF next year, but LSU is playing Clemson, Bama, and UF. SCar is playing VT, Clemson, and an SEC schedule.
So, yea, every SEC has a creampuff or two, and every year there's a few team with an easy schedule, and occasionally there's a year when the SEC is mostly mediocre. But that isn't the norm.
The SEC plays the ACC and that's about it. The furthest games west KY has played was Texas last season. They play in their foot print. There are tons of states like the UK stat, UF played there first OOC road game in like 28 years last season. Bama has been across the Mississippi like 4 times all this century.
So they get knocked for not scheduling home and homes with Purdue?
The skill position talent drain is my concern as well. Perhaps the upgraded OL will make up the difference, at least in the run game, but we just have no way of knowing ahead of time.
I think we have some talent at the skill positions, just young. But that means growing pains. However it felt like lane and gosnell were the only 2 wrs that knew what to do last year
I think it will be very interesting to see what happens with the WR this year.
Mines has been a fantastic recruiter, but can he really develop his players? Agree that WR play seemed inconsistent and uneven last year, I think this year will be very telling.
If Wiggins and adams don't click at tech this year, will they move on? I agree that the receiver corp didn't pan out last year. How much of it was on the qb?
Guessing a lot was on the combination of QB and OL. We need to see better play there to know if the WRs are really any good or not. I'm optimistic about the OL improving, hopefully a lot. Less so about QB given our track record there. But we will see.
My guess is the kid that was recruited and developed by Wake will be our best WR.
I'm also high on Stewart he's a harder to tackle (but without the top end) Tuten. I'm extremely surprised how quiet any media outlets have been on him during the offseason I know he got to campus late, maybe Pry is going for the more quiet approach this season knowing that we're alll waiting for this program to do anything at all.
I see the "quiet approach" as a positive. We need every advantage we can get.
Stewart will be great if our offense can stay ahead of the chains... which last happened on a consistent basis in 1999.
If the OL is improved, and I think it will be, there is some real hope for the offense to be an improvement from last year.
I feel like the defense is much more of an unknown, but hopefully Siefkis will be the boost we need to solidify that unit.
Agreed on both counts. A lot of the issues on D last year appeared to be just subpar scheme and coaching, so hopeful a bit more competency in that regard will help. We made so many simple mistakes last year in all facets of the game that should be easy to identify and fix, but who knows if that will happen.
I expect 4 or 5 wins. I think Pry is probably fried(not a typo) if he doesn't win at least 6. If we go less than .500 in 2025 the entire athletic department needs to be turned on its head(As much as I think it needs to happen, I don't think it will). I just don't think the leadership at our institution cares enough about football to make that happen. (And I'm not just saying Sands - I'm sure he cares - but he has to get buy-in from the BoV and that's probably not easy to do)
Our schedule is pretty brutal this year. We come out of the gate with two SEC teams (SCAR, Vandy). Pry isn't known for fast starts and with a completely new coaching staff it's hard to expect them to have a team ready to face a pretty decent program that Shane is running in South Carolina. I very seriously doubt we can win that one. Vanderbilt beat us last year and until Pry proves otherwise, I just don't believe he's cut out to win non-con games against Power conferences. I don't believe he has yet. Maybe once?
After that we get some easier games with ODU and Wofford, but we struggle with ODU so who knows. I think starting 2-2 is probably the realistic best-case scenario (obviously, in O&M pipe-dream-land starting 4-0 would be best case).
From there we don't really have any easy games until Virginia in November, except maybe Wake Forest. GT is climbing and they've been recruiting unfairly well relative to us.
There are a couple of toss-ups. NC State has been a thorn in our side and we just can't seem to beat them with Pry as HC (our last win against NC State was under Fuente). Cal had the same record as us last year but they had a tough schedule and acquitted themselves quite well, tbh. They were better than expected, anyway.
Louisville, Miami and FSU all have way more talent than us and unless our coaching is head and shoulders better than it has been (with little reason to believe that it will be) I don't see us winning all of those. I know we can all laugh at the FSU debacle but I think they just gave up after losing to a pretty good GT team in week one last year.
VT vs SCAR Definite loss
Vandy @ VT Probable loss
ODU @ VT Probable win
Wofford @ VT Probable win
VT @ NC State Toss-up
Wake @ VT Probable win
VT @ GT Probable loss
Cal @ VT Toss-up
L'Ville @ VT Probable loss
VT @ FSU Probable loss
Miami @ VT Probable loss
VT @ LOLUVA Definite win
I just see way more potential for losses than wins for this team with this schedule. Pry has a tough row to hoe, no doubt. I genuinely hope he goes out there and wins 8 or 10 games. But, realistically, I think it's unfair to expect much more than 4 or 5 wins. I think this is the end of the road for him. He messed up by bringing in two very inexperienced coordinators at the very beginning and he acted too slowly to replace Marve when it was clear he was in over his head. Those types of mistakes compound and I think 2025 is going to bear the very ugly fruits of those early missteps.
Yep. very easy to imagine getting embarrassed in those first 2 games and then the national narrative just not shifting no matter if we win the next 10
Vandy is going to do it for me for Pry. If we lose to a 5-6 win Vandy team in Lane- just because they are a fucking P4 team- and by golly we don't beat those OOC- I'm going to blow my fucking lid. Vandy is not good yall- they aren't. So cut the bullshit. If we lose to them, we lost to an at best mediocre team at home. Same ole fucking same ole. Shane has a good squad- with good/great talent at spots because- I dunno- he knows how to recruit. So I know we aren't winning that game. But we lose to Vandy in Lane- I'm done with Pry. Done.
Yeah I'm with you here. South Carolina I've already chalked up as a loss, but if we come home the next week to a night crowd at Lane and lose again to Vandy, I just don't think this staff will ever be P4 competitive.
yeah, I'm not far from you on this. I don't think Vandy is good. I know we're not good. I think they win that one. That's my expectation, anyhow. But, like I said, I think Pry needs to win at least six to keep his job and I don't think he's going to win at least six. So, it's easy to see how his fate could be sealed after just two games. Starting out with two losses is a great way to finish sub-.500. Beamer could start 0-2 and turn a team into a 10-2 squad. But there aren't many Beamers out there and Pry certainly isn't one of them. If he starts 0-2, he'll finish 5-7 or worse.
If he finishes 7-5 he will probably keep his job. I am with most people that anything less, and he is probably gone.
ah - you caught a typo - I meant 5-7 or worse. I fixed it
Knowing this program it would not shock me at all for us to come out and win against USC, get all high on ourselves, and lay an absolute egg against Vanderbilt. THAT is the scenario that would do it for me.
That's not a hard scenario to imagine - SCar (side note - I refuse to call them USC; there is one USC and it's located in California) plays us with zero game tape, has no idea what to expect from our new coordinators, is unprepared, and loses.
Then, we play Vandy, and Lea/Kill are able to stop us based on one game of film.
That scenario doesn't bother me much. Win 8 games (including UVA) or Pry gone. Other than UVA, I don't care which 8 games. That simple.
There is one USC, and it's in California.
And as much as I hate the Tarholes there is one Carolina, and it's in Chapel Hill.
USC=Carolina. Southern Cal should be referred to just like any other directional state school, ie Western Michigan or Southern Miss.
Except the majority of Americans feel as though South Carolina should be referred to as a directional state school.
South Carolina is 80 years older than USCw. They get to be USC to me.
That's just geography, as the East was settled far before the West. East coast bias. ;^)
One school has multiple hiesmans and national championships. The other school has had a single 11-win season.
If you want to be relevant, you have to earn it.
The idea of referring to Clemson's stadium as Death Valley was laughable 15 years ago. That title belongs to lsu. Then Clemson got legit. And they earned the name recognition.
Given our history, certain losses absolutely do bother me. It highlights our constant lack of mental toughness IMO.
We never win in the carrier dome. We can't beat OOC P4 teams. We are 2-whatever against FSU the last 30 years... ODU has picked us off TWICE. So yeah, we lose to FSU, Vandy and ODU for example- its the same fucking shit and fuck all of that. I'm sick of it. Show some mental toughness for ONCE.
We will find out how much toughness the team has in the first 2 games. Sellers has wiggle and power, he will be a problem. Pavia is also tough, and we need to show we can stop him. Hopefully seifkis brought tackling drills from the NFL to Blacksburg
Pry acknowledged that mental toughness as a huge issue and they are trying to address it- good. Its been THE issue for 20 years here.
Some good commentary on this with David Teel on TechSideline podcast as well. Was just saying we HAVE to beat at least one of SC or Vandy.
We've lost to Rutgers twice, Purdue at home, and Vandy. The last time we beat an OOC P4 team was the season opener against WVU at FedEx. Embarrasing.
We SHOULD be no worse than 3-1 coming out of the first 4 weeks. And really the only acceptable way we get that IMO is a loss to SCar and beat Vandy, Wofford and ODU. If we beat SCar and lose to Vandy it will be a bit deflating. But can totally see that happening. If we win the first two weeks and lose any of the ODU or Wofford games I don't think Pry recovers unless that's the only game they lose and they gone a run to include the ACCCG and playoffs. That's the only way a loss to ODU or Wofford could be overlooked.
13-0 but no votes to CFB Playoff.
At 13-0 we wouldn't need any votes. We'd be in automatically. Worst case scenario, they give us a low seed and make us play the first round.
Unfortunately, we won't have to worry about whether I'm right.
this was 2017 - I watched that game in the wee hours of the morning on a laptop with spotty internet in my hut in Uganda.
it's crazy to me that it's been 8 years since we've beaten a P4 team OOC. Absolutely wild to me. That can't be right, is it? Is that right?
And wasn't it Nebraska was the last time we beat a P4/P5 team at home? I might be missing someone (God, I hope I am), but off the top of my head, that is the last one I can remember. What, 15+ years ago?
it was 2009 - so yeah, 16 years ago. Wild stuff
It is right.
In that time, we are a combined 0-12 against ND, Kentucky, WVU, Maryland, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Rutgers, and Minnesota.
certainly not a whos who list of college football programs. that just makes the stat that much worse, frankly
My biggest gripe. If Pry loses to Shane, Miami, and FSU this year- well hell it is what it is. But that's not going to happen. We are going to drop multiple games to dogshit teams. I sincerely hope I am wrong.
the closer we get to the season the harder it is for me to imagine winning more than four games. I genuinely hope I'm wrong about that. I would love nothing more than to win 10 games and beat the teams we're 'supposed' to beat. But Pry hasn't done that, ever. So, would we be insane to believe he's going to start now, in year four? I think so.
It's remarkable to me that a team can manage to string together seven full seasons without notching a single P4/P5 OOC win. I hate to say it, but I bet even UVA has at least one OOC P4/P5 win in the last five years.
I just can't expect Pry to win a game he's never won before until he starts winning them. For that reason, I see both of our OOC P4 games as sure losses.
They beat Illinois in 2021
Off the top of my head, teams with P4 OOC wins since we beat WVU- Liberty, Marshall, ODU, JMU, Jacksonville State, Vandy, Rutgers, Maryland. A real murder's row of football programs.
Hey wait a minute...we're the win for half of those teams. Shit.
Exactly. We are also the biggest win ever for : Randy Edsall, Neil Brown, Bobby Wilder, Walt Harris, Jeff Jagoszinski, Mickey Matthews, Dino Babers, and Paul Pasqualoni.
I get your point but also - Neal Brown has wins over Nebraska and LSU (when they were ranked). Edsall has a win over PSU when he was at UMD. Walt Harris shut out PSU and beat Miami. PP beat Clemson 41-0 in the gator bowl (back when it was a respectable bowl game) and the '92 Fiesta Bowl over Hall of Famer Bill McCartney.
Thank you for the research... but I was using -sort of- hyperbole... you get my point.
I can see 4- Wofford ODU UVA Cal... 3 of those are at home. What I can't see/get to is 7 wins. Can't see it.
I said 4-8 in like April/may time frame and it's hard to see more than 5-7
USC - Shane gonna drop a 50 burger on us for ruining was his dad built
Vandy - you beat Diego we a good Dline and man corners, which we lost all from last season.
ODU - Will be better than last season, will we?
Wofford - we ain't THAT bad, Win
NC State - do they still have that reciever that will beat us single handily?
Wake - winningest FBS program in NC this century; seems like one of those games we should win but will lose
GT - We have a chance if their QB is injured again
Cal - Maybe
UofL - They easily handle us
FSU - Transfer QB that cant throw and no one likes, VT should win by a mile but we could easily pull a Cal
Miami - They lost all their talent and their coach sucks at in game coaching, should be us easily.
UVA - Win
USC - I doubt the 50 burger but probably a loss.
Vandy - I prefer to think defense adjustment and a better offense wins. Plus no penalty for same number.
ODU - Stompy, Stomp, we turn this corner on this series.
Wofford - Second and third teams get good minutes.
NC State- Nope, he gone and so are their chances of winning.
Wake - Who knows what the Deacon does from year to year.
GT - Probably a loss as they seem to have given up on holding athletes to their academic requirements.
Cal - Another win;
UL - Probably a loss
FSU - Good FSU and we lose, bad FSU and we win.
Miami - We are past the point in the year where the refs are actively cheating for them.
LOLUVA - We finish the nail in Elliot's coffin.
There is a ton of these. We haven't beaten Syracuse on the road since Mike Vick was here- 25 years and counting. In that timeframe Syracuse football has been a punchline/joke for the most part. We have won twice EVER in 1/3 full at best Heinz Field. We've lost in ODU's shit stadium not once, no but twice. We lost to a 6 win Marshall team, we just got swept by Rutgers football. Beamer used to own them like a mule. We got swept by 6 win WVU. There is a lot that is not "right" with VT football as we knew it in the glory days.
I will say this Greg Schiano might be a joke everywhere else, but he has done alright by Rutgers.
Wish I could upvote a second time just for your stance on USC
I think the more turnover in rosters we see, the greater the importance of coaching. One of the things I've found interesting in the off season player interviews (247) is how Siefkes is handing all of his guys personalized film for their position. Perhaps everyone does this and this is just the first I've heard of it. But it will be interesting to see how it pans out. The light bulb needs to turn on pretty quick for these guys
Man, I'm hoping for a physical, well coached defense. I know the game has changed, but can it be that difficult to get your guys in the right position and show some get to?
I'd even put up with some losses of i can see some physicality again.
A buddy of mine had this interesting thought that Bud Fosters defenses started falling off when all those rules got passed about limiting contact in the pre-season. I think there's something to that. Bud's defenses were always hard hitting and decisive and that probably is a lot tougher to teach if you're not running full speed in practice.
That's interesting, and to extrapolate i wonder if it starts earlier as youth football has really cut back on contact.
Semi off-topic but this seems to have been the quietest off-season in a while. That or I just don't care as much anymore. Will still watch and cheer but ya know....
I think we are all in disbelief about the state of college football in general and the downward trend of our beloved VT Football program specifically. I still believe believe that Pry can be a winning head football coach at VT now that he has new coordinators who are both an improvement over their predecessors imho, especially on the defensive side. I think Marve was way over his head as a DC and his decisions deeply handicapped the program. I am also high on the future of our O-line and am eager to see how it performs this season. I actually expect the program to take a small step up and win 7-8 games in the regular season, but things are so hard to predict with the portal nowadays that guessing season records is truly a fool's errand. Go Hokies!
You can get plus money on VT over 6 wins right now- you should put some money down.
If I bet, I would be good for 5 bucks on that!
If we have an experienced D Coordinator last year we win at least 3 more games (vandy, rutgers, miami, syracuse, duke come to mind as options) last year and that changes the complete perspective of Pry. So many of our games last year followed the idea that if our initial game plan didnt work we were in a who has the ball last kind of situation.
Having the experienced coordinators we have gives me hope that we will perform a lot better than we did last year. I think we lose to Scar but I think we hammer Vandy.