The Hokies finished up week six with a loss to Wake Forest that would be infuriating if it wasn't at least somewhat expected. Good teams have won more than six regular season games at least once in the last five years. Good teams don't make the same mistakes week after week, year after year. But still, the game was there for the taking.
By success rate, Wake Forest only barely beat out Virginia Tech by about 2.5 percentage points (38.6% compared to VT's 36.1%). In terms of explosive plays, Virginia Tech actually had a net higher rate by 0.6 percentage points (4.9% of plays versus Wake Forest's 4.3%). Where the Hokies got beat was EPA per play. Virginia Tech generated 0.0739 expected points per play, while allowing an unfortunate 0.217344 expected points per play.
Against FBS opponents, this was the second worst offensive performance of the season, ahead of only the South Carolina game where the offensive EPA per play was -0.145. Sadly, the net EPA per play of -0.143444 per play was the second best of the season against FBS opponents.
So where does that leave VT in the FBS ranks? Not in a great position. Offensive success rate dropped from 76th overall to 90th overall, while defensive success rate increased from 112th to 97th overall. Offensive explosiveness dropped from 72nd to 83rd, while the explosive plays allowed rank increased from 128th to 119th.
In terms of net success rate, the Hokies actually improved slightly from 101st to 94th, and net explosiveness from 126th to 118th.
By EPA per play against FBS opponents, the Hokies rank 81st in offense, 126th in defense, and 122th in net EPA per play.
If you think that maybe that will improve, let's take a look at the remaining schedule (unadjusted for schedule).
Georgia Tech (#13): 48th in offensive EPA per play, 53rd in defensive EPA per play, 53rd in net EPA per play.
California: 126th in offense, 65th in defense, 109th overall
Louisville: 80th in offense, 7th in defense, 31st overall
Florida State (#25): 14th in offense, 47th in defense, 18th overall
Miami (#2): 41st in offense, 24th in defense, 26th overall
Virginia (#19): 27th in offense, 72nd in defense, 41st overall
Comments
I don't know what you're talking about basketball hasn't started yet
Basketball may be a quasi bright point this year especially compared to this...
So we suck at a very technical level, as well as to the eye test. Somehow it doesn't seem like the additional 40-something million dollars will be enough.
It shouldn't take $40M to buy a decent OL and QB. And we're halfway towards the former if we keep the current OL coach onboard. The players he brought are pretty good.
Edit: I say that, not having read French's recap. I could only listen to the game, and I'm not sure I want to see what sounded like a pretty bad day at the office for the OL. If I'm wrong in that assessment, somebody tell me that I should read it.
So I shouldn't expect Montgomery to really this team to a bowl game. Got it. The Cal game is now our Superbowl and for my liver's sake I should probably stop watching football after that. Any other learnings I should be taking away from this?
I don't think so no, but I am interested to see how his three FBS games compare to the first three. Its pretty clear when you look at all the team data that we're being sunk by Vanderbilt and ODU.
The last to have been at least close to respectably bad for a rebuilding team. The first 3 games were Oklahoma State, UNC levels of bad. Funny that there might be a trend there.
I don't know why anybody would be surprised to read this, because we are just not a very good team. There's some talent, but not in the right places or with the right experience levels. But appreciate the article nonetheless. I like reading about advanced metrics, and while I'm not happy with where are are in the numbers, it's still an interesting read.
We're creating almost a half a point per play more than our opponents? That sounds really, really good.
[looks at table below that statement]
Oh. =^/
I'm not optimistic about the Hokies getting more than one more win this season. Looks like Cal is our last, best shot.
Never thought I'd be saying this, but I wish we were playing Boston College and Syracuse this year. UNC is a given, I'd love to torch them every year (and they do look torchable).
On a personal note, we really, really need to shock the world and beat GT this weekend. The past year has been a nice respite from having to refer to Tech as "Virginia Tech" within the family (mostly GT alums), and I'd really rather not have to start that up again. EXTERMINATE THE YELLOW JACKETS!
Good catch on the error on the Wake game. It was supposed to be 0.0739 epa per play.
I'll be honest, I like doing these but these past few months have been incredibly hard personally so I've slacked on the editing and insights a bit.
I do think there are tangible improvements from Pry to Monty that are worth looking into but I'm trying to give them both three FBS games of comparison.
I also want to look into metrics adjusted for opponents (we've played a more difficult schedule than I would have thought to be honest), and look up some comparisons to the past couple years.
These read similar to a technical white paper, and as somebody who's had to write a few of those, they're a lot of work. I understand that life can get in the way of things you like to do outside of work. Just want to say I appreciate the effort you put into these. This one was really informative. Thanks.
Edit: Should've been under boylejc2's comment. Looks like my
editingproofreading is slacking as well today.