OT: College football games are closer than ever, but at what cost?

Guest Article on Matt Brown's Extra points by a Carnegie Mellon marketing professor

It's a quick read, really interesting. The summary is:

• There's imperial evidence that college football has become more even/more parity driven in the post-NIL era
• This professor's paper explains that NIL has result in talent spread across more teams, lending "to a notable increase in the dispersion of talent"
• 3-star athletes - who aren't going to the NFL - are sacrificing post-graduation salary for (small) NIL gains

Excerpt (emphasis mine):

Three-star recruits face a stark reality: They have only an 8.4 percent probability of being drafted into the NFL. For these athletes, the decision to maximize immediate NIL income appears to come at the expense of their long-term educational stability. The research found that post-NIL, three-star recruits have exhibited behavior consistent with maximizing immediate NIL money, choosing colleges that are less selective, have lower SAT class averages and whose graduates earn a lower mid-career income.

These players are maximizing their college-level earnings while they can, opting for immediate NIL money over the long-term benefit of a high-quality education. For many, the financial security of a meaningful NIL deal now outweighs the delayed payoff of potentially better long-term earnings a prestigious degree might offer. Given that the median total NIL earnings for a Division I FBS player in 2024 were only $3,168, the immediate financial gain may not compensate for the documented loss in future lifetime earnings. The median income a decade after graduation is approximately 3 percent lower for the schools these three-star athletes are choosing post-NIL.

This finding is highly relevant because it validates one of the NCAA's original arguments in the O'Bannon case: Restricting compensation helped integrate athletics and academics for student-athletes. While five-star recruits face no negative academic trade-offs, the three-stars clearly do.

Anyways, I thought it was a fascinating piece and wanted to share.