Now or Never

Whenever I have a hunch that some statistic is true, I get to work on finding the numbers to try to prove it.

In this case, we really don't need any numbers: Virginia Tech cannot close out basketball games. The Hokies haven't lost all their close games, but even in the wins they've played so inexplicably poor, and have outdone all the good work they do for the first 36 minutes, that the point remains.

(That clip I just linked was after a timeout. I love you Mike Young, but c'mon!)

Below is Virginia Tech's point differential in conference play split up by five four-minute segments in each half to approximate the media timeouts.

Tech plays pretty normal basketball for the first nine segments, and then turns into Mississippi Valley State in the last four minutes for some reason. Their under-4, second-half point differential is by far their worst, which is surprising because they're actually a plus-second half team outside of that.

It's no secret that teams tend to let up when they have a late lead. You might've heard of the rubber band effect: teams are more efficient point-for-point when they are trailing, mainly because they're trying harder.

The Rubber Band effect is eternal.Red = teams overperformBlue = teams underperformTeams play better when trailing. pic.twitter.com/n0KmXCu9lU— Mike Beuoy (@inpredict) May 7, 2025

Tech has been playing with fire: in over half of their conference games, they've had leads of varying sizes at the under-4 timeout, and then the rubber band has snapped back at them. They've struggled to overcome that momentum shift, and have gone 2-3 in those contests:

• Jan. 27 vs. Georgia Tech: led by 13 with four minutes left; won by six
• Jan. 21 at Syracuse: led by nine with one minute left; won by two
• Jan. 14 at SMU... no comment.
• Jan. 7 vs. Stanford: led by 13 with three minutes left; lost
• Jan. 3 at Wake Forest: led by one with 1:24 left; lost

Tech's interior defense is so porous it looks like they aren't even trying. Per CBB Analytics, in "clutch situations" the Hokies sit in the 27th percentile of FG% defense at the rim (64.9), 1st percentile in rim attempts allowed, and 0th percentile (!!!!) in forced turnover rate.

Simply put, they are playing with a level of passivity on defense late in games that is completely inexcusable. Tech has time to put things together, but the season will go nowhere if they can't figure out how to close.

This upcoming week would be a good time to start.

Board Battles

There hasn't been just one thing hurting Tech in close games. Sometimes it's missing free throws and open threes. Other times it's making repeated dumb passes trying to break a press (even more perplexing since Tech is normally so good at avoiding turnovers). To what degree can Mike Young control the latter? Without being at practice, we can't know for sure.

Speaking more broadly, one of the biggest red flags that's going under the radar is not turnovers but rebounding.

This year, Tech ranks 295th in Division I and next-to-last in the ACC in defensive rebounding percentage (33.4%). If the season ended today, that would be the worst DREB rate for a Young-coached team in nearly 20 years. His teams are almost always good-to-okay at cleaning up the glass.

Under Young, guards are expected to rebound the ball more than most systems. This is mainly due to compensate for not having super athletic big men — Tobi Lawal being an obvious exception, but Christian Gurdak not so much. (Tech is also playing undersized).

Lawal has shouldered an incredible load on the boards, but that's probably not by design. Gurdak has the second-lowest DREB% among ACC centers as he's limited by his athleticism. Jailen Bedford (26th among 35 ACC wings in DREB%) and Jaden Schutt (33rd) have been non-factors.

And while Neoklis Avdalas has decent rebounding numbers, there's still a higher level he can get to. There have been too many instances where he looks passive once an opponent's shot goes up. Among ACC players 6'8 or taller, the Greek native is 41st among 46 in DREB%.

This is where Tyler Johnson is missed dearly. He ranks sixth among 35 ACC wings in DREB%, and brings a level of toughness that Tech lacks at the moment. His rebounding numbers were even better last season. Tech should get him back against NC State (Saturday, 12pm on The CW), and they'll need him.

This is far from the only reason the Hokies have wilted late in games — it would help if they stopped yeeting the ball halfway down the court on baseline inbounds sets — but it's probably a factor. Offensive rebounding is a tactical choice: teams are careful not to send too many guys to the glass to prevent transition opportunities the other way.

But that dynamic changes late in games, especially for the trailing team, who has less to lose by not getting the ball since the team ahead will naturally play more conservative. And regardless, players are going to be more aggressive on the boards with the game on the line (there is evidence to show that offensive rebounding is partly a function of effort as it tends to increase late in games.)

The decisive possession from the loss to Wake Forest was a microcosm of that.

1) Gurdak gets out-leaped by Cooper Schwieger (#13) under the basket. The ball did take an odd roll and Schwieger timed it very well.

2) Ben Hammond gives up positioning to Juke Harris (#2)... not that it matters a ton since he's so mismatched to begin with.

3) Bedford came down with the ball but didn't hold on.

This was a unique situation in that Lawal was injured and Hansberry had fouled out, so Tech was playing super small. But you can find other instances of the Hokies just getting outworked on the boards.

Again, it's far from the only issue with this team, but as we've seen with four years of VT football, those types of missed details will usually come back to bite you late in games.

As a corollary to their struggles on the glass, the Hokies rank in the 19th percentile for percentage of points in the paint allowed and 23rd percentile of 2nd-chance points allowed. Shockingly, in conference play those numbers are even worse (10th and 8th percentiles, respectively).

A Case of the Yips

That said, the situation is far from dire. Tech is currently the first team out in Joe Lunardi's field. They have three Quad I games coming up: at NC State (Sat.), at Clemson (Feb. 11), at Miami (Feb. 17). Lose all three and they're in trouble; but steal just one and they'd be favored to make the tournament.

Avdalas has to get going though. I have no doubt he won't shoot 30% from the floor the rest of the year, but it seems he's letting his shooting struggles affect other parts of his games. He committed a bad turnover late against Duke that made Young apoplectic and he was benched for the final four minutes.

In conference play, Avdalas' turnover rate is way up, and his rebounding is literally nonexistent: of 120 qualified ACC players, Avdalas ranks 120th in offensive rebound percentage. His defensive rebounding is not much better.

While he's still getting his assists, he's struggling to shoot from pretty much every level. (May I make a polite recommendation to cut down on midrange jumpers? Over his last five games, Avdalas is 1-for-15 on non-paint 2's. That was a huge part of his game earlier in the season that has completely disappeared.)

Young said after the loss to Duke that they are working on tweaking Avdalas' shot. He used the term "dark place" to describe his point guard's mental state, which is fairly ominous language at this point in the season. He did praise Neo's passing, but was otherwise curt in his answer as to his struggles. When a coach declines to comment on a particular aspect of a player's game, that's usually a sign he has nothing complimentary to say.

It's easy to empathize with Neo. He's a 19-year-old freshman adjusting to the American game, and is now being booed by his own fanbase. But he was brought in (i.e. paid) to score points, and he hasn't excelled.

Meanwhile, as fantastic as Ben Hammond has been, Young did not construct this roster around him. He built it around Avdalas. There is no scenario where Tech is making a deep run in March without Neo producing.

Avdalas was brought in to lead Tech back to the NCAA Tournament. It'd be a shame if he shot them out of it instead.