Hammerin Hokies Week 6

Baseball dropped 2 out of 3 to UVA and are 9-9 on the season now.

They start the week Wednesday with VCU in Blacksburg at 3pm. Broadcast on ACCNX.

This weekend Duke cones to town

Friday 6pm ACCNX
Saturday 3pm ACCNX
Sunday 1pm ACCNX

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Comments

LET'S GO...

I seldom speak to loluva grads, but when I do, I tell them I want large fries.

Hokies!

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Good guys managed to hold on to beat VCU 11-8 by way of SEVEN unearned runs... woof.

VCU lost that game, we didn't win it. My early season hopes for this Hokies baseball team have completely vanished. Finishing .500 seems like it would be a miracle.

Yes but you gotta make them pay for extra outs and we did

'Its easy to grin, when your ship comes in, and you've got the stock market beat,
but the man worthwhile, is the man who can smile, when his shorts are too tight in the seat'

Up 2-0 on Duke in top of 4th

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Locurto RBI single makes it 3-0

Duke making a pitching change
Bringing in a sidearm lefty

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Locurto gets picked off but gets to 2nd safely

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Kind of unreal how well the baseball field is lit. Looks like its noon.

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Yagesh with 6 Ks and 2 pickoffs so far through 5 innings

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Wasn't tracking that three Hokies Starting pitchers have been injured in last three games including Renfrow

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Yikes. Hadn't seen anything about this either. Apparently following the MBB injury playbook. Not good.

Go Hokies!!

Are they the Braves? /smdh

"Yes I am going to have favorites. My favorites are high production and low maintenance players, coaches, and staff." - JMFF

Tracking the Braves pitcher playbook it seems. Starters dropping like flies.

Go Hokies!!

Yagesh now 7 Ks through 7

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Bases loaded walk makes it 4-0

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Cooke Sac Fly makes it 5-0

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Roe pitches a scoreless 8th inning

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Gates with a 2 RBI single in 8th

7-0

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Roe loses the shutout on leadoff HR

7-1

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Hokies Win

7-1

Yagesh was awesome

Really good situational hitting tonight to bring runs across

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

He was sitting at our table at the 'Baseball Night' event. Really nice kid. Said he had been a starter before transferring to VT. Been a reliever at VT; said was a complete change in pitching practice regiment and a real hard adjustment for him.

Go Hokies!!

They said tonight was his longest start ever

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Good for him.

Go Hokies!!

Already have a head coach fired. South Carolina fired their head coach today after 12-11 start in just his second season

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Brought the coach out of retirement, but he couldn't quickly re-ignite the magic of his prior career.

Go Hokies!!

Up 3-1 in the 5th

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Still 3-1. Grim replacing Renfrow on the mound for VT for top of 6th.

Go Hokies!!

Good to see Renfrow out there. Announcers yesterday said he was injured last weekend

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Welp Bullpen immediate impact

3-3

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Bullpen S Show continues

6-3 now in 7th

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

6-4 on Grube RBI Double

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Strand runners at 2nd/3rd

Going to the 8th 6-4

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

6-5 on an error after Cooke single

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Duke pitching change with bases loaded and no outs

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Grube sac fly ties it 6-6

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Sac bunt goes wrong and Jordan thrown out at 3rd

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Welp Hokies only get the one run out of bases loaded no outs

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Let Strand homer for 2nd time. Trail 8-6

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Bottom of 9th need 2 runs

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Gates was swing for the fence there

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Welp Hokies blow another great outing from Renfrow. Had runners in scoring position in six of nine innings. Left 11 on base.

Feel really bad for Renfrow. Goes 5 innings of 1 run ball to have the bullpen implode with 7 runs allowed in 4 innings.

Lose 8-6

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Hokies were 1-10 with 2 outs and 4-18 with RISP and lost in the 9th.

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Ugly stats

Go Hokies!!

Hokies team ERA is over 8. Worst in the ACC by like 1.5 runs.

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Pitching has been a problem for several years now.

Go Hokies!!

Except they changed over the pitching coach last offseason and he brought several guys he identified in the portal in. Complete faceplant though so far.

Meanwhile a couple of our pitchers thst transferred out are having career years so far this season.

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Seems to be the way.

Go Hokies!!

4-4 in the 5th in the rubber match

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Lutterman RBI Single

5-4 Hokies

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Ethan Ball Solo 💥

6-4 Hokies

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

RBI single in 8th for Duke

6-5

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Play by play guy today is definitely a Duke Homer. He keeps pushing for positive things to happen for the Blue Devils

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Ugh play by play guy just reminded us its been almost a year since the Hokies have won an ACC series

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Hokies blow it in the 9th to let Duke tie. Simple ground ball to short becomes a two base error. Sac fly moved him to 3rd.
Two consecutive base hits with two outs.

6-6 with runners on 1st/2nd.

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Now Hokies blow a perfect chance to score in 9th. Ethan Ball led off with double. Locurto deep shot to center and Ethan Ball tagged up but left early.

Goes from easy 1 out runner on third to two outs no one on.

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

This team is as stupid as their head coach

The taste is so divine
A chemical come alive
Welcome to your vice
Good luck with life
'Cause you can't
You can't
You can't kill me that easily

Grube Walkoff Bases Loaded Single in bottom of 10th.

Win 7-6

First ACC series win in almost a year

First time winning a series against Duke in 4 years

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

3-1 week

12-10 now

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Better week than I think most of us expected. Still, the way we closed out the series isn't instilling confidence. Decided to let Anthropic have a crack at the Hokies and give me some insight into what's going to happen the remainder of the season -

Projected remaining: 18-13

Methodology: Based on VT's observed patterns:
- 75% home win rate, 43% road win rate, adjusted for opponent strength
- VT takes 1 of 3 in most road ACC series, 2 of 3 in most home ACC series
- VT beats non-conference opponents at home ~90% of the time
- VT splits or loses road games against quality opponents (RPI < 80)

### Final Projected Record: ~30-23 (.566)
- Overall: 30-23
- ACC: ~14-16

This would put VT on the bubble for an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. Their RPI (currently 23) and SOS (2) are strong,
but the win percentage needs to stay above .550 and they'll need a few more quality wins. Taking 2-of-3 at home against
NC State and/or Clemson would be huge resume boosters.

### Key to Exceeding Projections
Based on the statistical indicators above, VT makes the tournament if they:
1. Keep opponents under 7 runs (9-1 when they do)
2. Play clean defense — 0-1 errors per game
3. Score 6+ runs (10-3 when they do)
4. Protect home field (currently 75% — need to maintain)
5. Win Game 3s in series to salvage splits on the road

### Key Risk
The blowout losses are concerning. VT has 5 losses by 7+ runs. If the pitching staff can avoid those catastrophic
outings, the underlying team is probably a 33-20 caliber squad. If the blowouts continue at the current rate (~1 in 4
games), they'll finish closer to 27-26.

A few other nuggets:

  • Our RPI is #23 in the country right now, and SOS is #2 (holy hell... the record is starting to be a lot more understandable)
  • the series against Pitt and NC State are the most critical
  • The season finale against Clemson would score major bonus points
  • We're going to need at least 1 win in the ACCT, maybe 2 to feel safe for an at-large NCAA bid

The SoS will start to drop significantly though as we get farther into the SEC season. A big plus to SoS was the 3 games against the SEC in Texas but as they play each other more our edge there drops off. I think projections are top 20 though by season end.

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Still pretty strong.

Go Hokies!!

The AI response said the same. Expect a final RPI between 30-45, and Top-20 SoS.