I love that Zlatan is involved in the commentary. That should be entertaining. I'm excited to see how the USMNT does after they acquitted themselves fairly well against Germany. Alternatively, this might be a disappointing tournament for Germany. They'll be expected to win their group, I think, but they aren't looking as strong as they have been historically. I'm cautiously optimistic about the squad Tuchel has set up for England. They look balanced and in a departure from previous regimes he's selected players that fit profiles rather than just trying to cram all of the most talented players onto the pitch at the same time. That could bode well for them. We shall see. Gonna be a fun tournament!!
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My brother set up a group for our family through the FIFA website. There are two types, one is simple (pick teams in each group - no scores needed). The other a little more in depth, guessing each game score.
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I mean, I know they're not technically out, but losing 2-0 with a yellow card and two reds has to make it EXTREMELY unlikely that South Africa will advance from the group. That loss might actually be the earliest a team has ever effectively been eliminated from a tournament. The way they played today, I just don't see them getting enough points to secure the 3rd place slot. Even if they do, those two reds are going to hurt them when it comes time to evaluate which 8 of 12 the 3rd place teams advance.
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Expansion was a money grab and this is what we will get from it. But, I think it can also help grow the game and maybe then countries will get better and the tournament can be more competitive outside of the European and South American teams.
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They had the worst odds in Group A to get out of it before the game. Very few people had hopes they would advance. But the sure as heck didnt help themselves at all w the reds.
8 of the 12 3rd place teams will advance out of group. There will be some slaughter games 5-0 or so where those teams have zero shot of advancing.
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VAR accounted for one. With VAR we could see more. The other 2 could have gone either way. But they were also straight reds so it could be they plan to call it tighter.
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There have been some really hilarious social media articles on European Fans enjoying their travels across the USA. Find some, they are great and ... appreciate what you have.
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I'm in Houston, and yesterday was out watching early games at an ice house. Couple obvious Germans come in and get a bucket of Bud Lights. My stepdad and his friends insisted that we could not let that stand. Bought them a bucket of actual beer and then chatted and gave recommendations for how to get to/from game and where to get beers after.
Then today at the game, just chatting with people, they are having the times of their life. In HOUSTON.
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Feel for those who couldnt stay up for the South Korea game that was miles better than the bland and bleak Mexico game. I guess it's one of the perks of new born midnight feeds is I'll get to see all the odd midnight games
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I went to bed at the 2nd half hydration break with the game tied at 1. Saw the final this morning. Felt to me like South Korea had control most of the game and were just not capitalizing on their opportunities.
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Honestly, both of those teams could give Mexico some trouble. How funny would it be if they knock Mexico down to 3rd and then the red card they got keeps them out of the top 8 3rd place teams?
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Pretty goal, but I take great umbrage with saying "already best goal". By definition, there's a best goal once there's a single goal scored. So there was a best goal well before this one.
And that's my Ted Talk.
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You'd probably have to go back to friendly against some scrub to find something this good. But even then, this is better. They're aggressive and decisive with every move, which is like totally unheard from the USMNT.
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I thought that was a really good card. You're four games into the tournament, send a message about diving to deter it from happening the rest of the World Cup.
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More important for the US was getting it waived off our guy especially with the third place differential rules this cup that can be determined by card accumulation to separate the 8 third places that get in and then 4 that dont.
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Pretty much the absolute best half of COMPLETE USMNT futbol Ive seen. Said last night to my boys that it reminded me of Spain w the ball control, passing around the umbrella, keeping possession, having patience, but striking w power and numbers. Yeah, the second half had less energy, but I get it. W the buildup to the home soil hosting, everything w it, the pundits questioning, new manager, etc.......let's not expend all of our capital right away. We proved to ourselves and the world we CAN and will do it, right now. Save some for down the road. Poch has big time experience understanding the ebb and flow of energy during stretches. Now let's drop a 4-1 spot on everyone.
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Not sure if this has been posted in other threads, but Antonio Freeman's kid is our locked-in starting RCB despite only being 21. Had one or two giveaways that were great, but a very good game otherwise and doesn't look out of place on the world stage.
Absolutely meteoric rise for him over the past 18 months.
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That's the best I think I've ever seen the USMNT play. That one game changed my outlook for the entire tournament. Coming into it I thought the US would advance, likely in 1st or 2nd, and lose in the first knockout. After the way they dominated Paraguay I feel like this US team could go toe to toe with 90% of the teams at this tournament. I actually feel optimistic that the US could have one of their deepest runs ever.
It does beg the question: how much of it is the US quality vs Paraguay maybe being poor? But then I think back to the Mexico South Africa match. South Africa was terrible. Absolutely awful. And Mexico won, as they should. But they didn't look convincing in doing so. That's the difference to me. USMNT looked the part in their win over a lesser team. They beat Paraguay the way you'd expect France or Brazil to. Exciting times! (plus, it was fun to watch. The aggression, the coordinated pressing, the ball movement, the chance creation. These are things I've never seen from the USMNT before)
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Paraguay was the 2nd hardest team to score against during qualifying in CONMEBOL. They only allowed 10 goals through 18 matches played. They had as many qualifying points as Brazil, Colombia, and Uruguay at 28.
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The problem on defense was the whole back line being over aggressive in possession and playing way high, and Curacao having some guys that are fast as fuck. There were several points that Neuer was at midfield during open play and I was sure they were gonna gift one.
Also, would've scored 2-3 more if Leroy fucking Sane wasn't still in the lineup for some reason. He's not the guy he was 4 years ago, not that he was a world beater then. Really wish Nagelsmann would stop being so loyal to the geezers, and had brought Said El Mala instead.
All that said, I surprised my parents, first by visiting, second by taking them to the game. Stupid money, but 10/10, once a generation experience. I think Curaçao brought their entire population, and they were hype the whole time. Down 7-1? Who gives a shit, we're just happy to be here. And they were LOUD.
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Yeah I was watching with a German buddy from my soccer team and he does not like Sane. I know nothing about him but watching yesterday he definitely squandered several opportunities. He didn't look great
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I can't decide what to take from the Australia v Türkiye match. Oddsmakers still give the US a higher percentage chance to lose or tie vs both teams in the next 2 games than to win.
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What you take away is that's 3 points Turkey didn't get, which given their talent can only help us. The goal differential is also huge. Massively increases odds of winning the group.
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The other takeaway is that Türkiye will likely be front footed against us since they need the win and won't be settling for the draw. Our defense will need to be sharp and there will be opportunities to strike on the counter attack
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I think Ream was named captain as the locker room leader of the team - which I don't hate at all. I think he got the ceremonial start against Paraguay but I doubt he starts against Turkiye
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I think Ream is starting every game - Poch trusts the partnership with Jedi on the left side. And he wants Ream there for his passing range.
I'd play Trusty on the left and trust Richards and Freeman to build out of the back. Freeman hit some decent passes against Paraguay and he can carry the ball into midfield. But I don't think Poch will do it.
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What a result for Cape Verde; this is why I am grateful for the Germany result, yes they played a lesser side; however, it was a good opportunity to avoid the banana skin that a first game can be.
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Yesterday got off to a disappointing start with France handling Senegal
But my goodness. Messi. Messi. Messi. Oldest player to ever score a hat trick in the world cup. Tied the record for number of world cup goals by an individual. Owns the title of most world cup goals from outside the box. And is 38 years old, playing in his 6th world cup. What a player!
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yeah the Golden Boot race is going to be exciting this go-round, for sure. C. Ronaldo and H. Kane yet to go. Though, I think it's more likely to be Messi or Mbappe than Ronaldo or Kane. I'm HOPING that it turns out to be some random player from a lesser team. Maybe Diomande from Cote d'Ivoire or something, if they make a run to the quarterfinals. If it has to be one of the big name players, I hope it's Kane (as an England fan, of course) or Messi (because it would be historic). I absolutely would hate it if it were Mbappe - I hope France loses in the round of 32. But that's because I hate France. (and, because I hate them and the universe spites me, France will probably win the whole gd tournament)
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Mbappe will more than likely get the record at some point. I support Germany (1A, to US 1B), and someone overtaking Klose is a bummer, because I remember the game he got the record. I hate someone like Mbappe getting the record, but the kid is 27, he has at least 2 more world cups in him.
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I don't think so, his first and 3rd were from outside the box, the second was a rebound. The VAR review of the offsides is also in play on every goal and called one back from the US.
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His first "goal" was ruled offsides. Technically, he put the ball in the net 4 times last night. 3 counted. Still think he should've been red carded though
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England finally has elite tactics under Tuchel. For the first time in, well, a really long time. And he's balanced the roster well too, unlike previous tournaments where management just tries to get the biggest stars all on the field at the same time. He went for profiles and balance over star-power. I appreciate that. They looked very tactically sound both defensively and in attack. Croatia is a good squad too. I think Croatia will make a nice little run in the tournament. England have to be one of the top 3 or 4 teams in it at this point.
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What are everyone's rooting interests in this tournament?
US, obviously. But what other teams do people support?
Personally, I'm a fan of England (as a British citizen whose family hails from southern England) and I also like most of the African sides (not South Africa) and some of the smaller European sides (Croatia, Czechia, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, Scotland). I tend to root for underdogs (unless it's against US or England). I generally hate most of the south American sides, France, Spain, and Portugal. I shouldn't like Germany, but I just do. I've always liked their style. (On that note, I hate Italy - glad they're not in it - mostly because of their style)
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Pre-revolutionary war my family were primarily German immigrants who settled in Pennsylvania. Our claim to fame would be we were the family kicked out for George Washington at Valley Forge. So I guess Germany after the US?
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no hard feelings. I get it, England is easily hate-able. I also like Netherlands. I forgot to mention it, explicitly, but I also hate Mexico. I group them in with "south America" but they're not technically south American so wanted to clarify
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After that I root for France. I'm Irish so there's no way I can ever root for England, plus the first world cup I ever really watched was in 1998 and I was enthralled with Les Blues.
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to be clear, I don't hate THE French*. I hate FRANCE (Les Bleus) the soccer team. I've also been to France a couple times. My uncle used to own a cottage somewhere in the south of France.
*I do hate Parisians, though.
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USA - go Stars and Stripes
Belgium - born there while U.S. Army dad stationed there
Croatia - mom's side of family from there & killer kit
Germany - dad's side of family from there & lived there for 3 years while U.S. Army dad stationed there
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When it was reported that multiple bars in Boston were sold out of beer it was pretty funny. Last time I remember that happening somewhere was when Jimmy Buffet played Manassas.
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1. USA
2. Die Mannschaft
3. Whoever is playing Mexico (Goddammit Korea)
4. Whoever is playing Canada
5. Scotland
6. Whoever is playing Ghana
7. Whichever team does not speak a language based in Latin
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USMNT obvi #1. Outside of that Spain and Portugal because I'm effectively 25% each by blood (my Portuguese lineage is all through Funchal, Ronaldo's birthplace).
And I absolutely LOVE to hate on England given they invented the sport and come up short every year. The "its coming home" memes bring me so much joy.
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I can't help but think about my first world cup experience back in June 1994. Ireland knocked off the favorite Italy 1-0 to open play. I was working in a restaurant called Pancho O'Malley's in Narragansett RI. After the game, the fans came in singing "We are white, we are right, we are f***ing dynamite" while the Italian fans were mourning. Most of us hit the floor for cover and the bartender just called 911.
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I think US wins 3-1. That likely will be enough to win the group outright, as the first tie-breaker is H2H. It'll depend a bit on the game later tonight between Turkiye and Paraguay. Here's hoping Paraguay wins that one, which would put USA on 6 points with H2H wins over Paraguay and Australia, both of whom would be unable to get more than 6 points.
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I had the same score prediction but based on Pulisic somehow being fit to play. I find that Pepi being put in place of Pulisic interesting, I'm just not sure we can create 3 goals against a tall and tough Aussie backline without him. Hoping I am 100% off and we win big haha.
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The yellow card accumulation is reset before the elimination round. More likely you will see starters based on who needs the rest than based on yellows.
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But a second yellow still means a game out. Single yellows are wiped. Two yellows and straight reds in the third game still mean sitting the next game.
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Correct so if they accumulate a second yellow in last group game, my understanding is they have to sit out the first elimination game. Frankly its dumb but gives the group winners a slight competitive advantage.
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Did what we needed to though things did get a little dicey there in the 2nd half. Could have been just a tad more aggressive looking for another goal instead of being content warding off Australia's attacks. Started getting tired there in the later minutes too. I thought they'd concede a goal, but somehow managed to keep it clean. Sucks about all those cards though. Get a good result tonight from Turkey/Paraguay and just sit anybody on a card.
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Messy 2nd half. We were happy not to possess, which has been strong through the first three halves. Aussies pressed hard which made it difficult, but thought we were sloppy coming back to the ball in passes. Clean sheet is great. And AUS never really had great chances in the 2nd half.
Best start to a tournament I've seen from the men in forever.
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I'll say it. I don't like the new tie break rules. By putting h2h ahead of gd and gf it makes a lot of the final group stage matches meaningless. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad the US have topped their group and earned the right to play against a 3rd place team in the r32 but it sucks that Türkiye has nothing left to play for bedsides pride and the US has no reason to treat the last game as anything other than a friendly. The Australia Paraguay match will be far more interesting since they will be jockeying for 2nd. But the fact that the Türkiye US game has zero impact on the outcomes in the group is lame. And it won't be the only group like that. There will be a bunch of meaningless final group stage matches, which takes away from some of the magic of the tournament. I hope they realize this was a big mistake and go back to previous rules in future tournaments.
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Absolutely hard disagree -- head to head is a way better tiebreaker than goal differential for a format like this because result vs common opponent shouldn't overtake head to head result.
Ecuador and Ivory coast shouldn't come down to "who can beat Curacao by more" for instance, it should be decided by ecuador vs ivory coast
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Agreed any 4 team round robin should always be H2H first, especially they expanded the tournament and each group will likely have a worse than typical team.
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I get the logic here but I disagree and here's why.
Firstly, with 2 teams advancing out of each group (guaranteed) and a 3rd team advancing from 66% of the groups, "penalizing" teams for "not scoring enough against common opponents" is essentially moot. If you were trying to crown the best team in each group, sure, h2h makes sense. But that's not really the point. You're really trying to weed out the worst teams, not anoint the best ones. That's why you get 2/3 teams from each group advancing. If you wanted only the best team in each group to advance, h2h suddenly makes a lot more sense.
Secondly, If multiple teams could potentially end on the same number of points after the final result of the last match, making the h2h tie-break the first tie-break removes the mystery and intrigue of those last games being played simultaneously. Turkiye is a great example. Because the tie-break is h2h they know that they are eliminated and they have nothing but pride to play for. However, if tie-break was based on goal differential and goals-for instead, then they have something to play for. Granted, it's a long shot, but if they are able to get a win against the US, and one of Paraguay or Australia lose, then it comes down to GD. If Turkiye is able to win by 2 goals and, say Australia loses by a goal or more, then Turkiye jumps them in the table. Sucks for Australia, but that gives Australia something to play for in their third game as well.
Thirdly, this is a tournament for the fans. The fan experience is a lot better when the teams still have everything to play for. Sure, it might be unlikely that Turkiye will win by enough goals and that one of Australia/Paraguay lose by enough goals but the fact that it's possible motivates all of those teams to play their best soccer on the last day of group stage. That's a win for the fans. The US Turkiye game is going to be boring for us now because it's essentially a meaningless friendly for both sides. Neither side gains or loses anything of substance from the game. It shouldn't be that way. Even if a team loses a game they perhaps shouldn't, they shouldn't be eliminated from the tournament before they even play their last game. They should still have something to play for and hope for the best as they find out where the chips fall.
Fourth, the point isn't to get the teams perfectly ranked coming out of each group. Naturally, you'll get the best teams winning their groups, and the worst teams losing their groups, regardless of how many goals are scored or who they are scored against. But the middle teams are where all the fun lies. I actually like this expanded version because it means that a lot of 3rd place teams still advance. But it's not guaranteed, so even though a lot of teams will finish 3rd and advance, every team that has a shot at 2nd in their group is going to be playing for 2nd to remove doubt/chance. It's kind of brilliant. But it works best if every team has something to play for in their last match. In a group where 3 teams could potentially finish on 3 points, you want those teams fighting tooth and nail for every possible chance to get into the 3rd place slot and keep their tournament dreams alive. We're losing that in the case of Turkiye and that's a bad thing for the tournament, IMO.
Also, There are advantages to placing first rather than second in your group. If you have 6 points and there are two other teams with 3 points, you can't just rest on your laurels even if you've beaten those teams. You still need to make sure you get at least a point from the last match to make sure you finish top. It would suck, for example, for the US, if we rested our starters and trotted out our bench warmers in the last game and lose because we know we're through but then Paraguay trounces Australia 3-0 or something and then they draw us on points but have a higher GD so they jump us in the group. Then we're stuck playing another 2nd place team rather than a 3rd place team.
H2h tie-breaks make sense if you're trying to figure out which teams are actually best. But to me, group stage isn't about figuring out which teams are best. Group stage is about weeding out the weakest teams. France lost their first game in group stage but ended up winning the whole tournament. 4 years later, Argentina lost their first game in group stage and then went on to win the whole thing. Group stage isn't about finding the best team. Group stage is about getting the worst teams knocked out and then letting everyone else play for the tittle. The knockouts are about finding the best team. There are no ties in the knockouts.
Group stage tie-breaks should be on GD and GF before H2H because that's the only way to avoid meaningless games. At least 50% of the final stage matches are going to be meaningless because so many teams will already know they are finishing in first place or last place regardless of the final match outcomes. That's going to set up lots of boring ho-hum soccer which sucks for the fans.
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Also, sporting merit in this structure works, even with gd/gf being the first tiebreakers over h2h. The best teams are going to advance, every time. You're not going to see France struggle to get out of their group if they're not one of the best teams. The best teams get into the knockouts.
But you need the other matches to count too. If the only games that matter are the ones with the best teams, more than half the tournament has no value. That's why it's important for South Korea to have a chance to win the group by scoring a bunch of goals against South Africa (and hope Mexico get's beat by Czechia). The tournament is entertainment at it's core. It's for the fans. The fans want to see meaningful football matches. That's why h2h as a group-stage tiebreaker doesn't work.
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I think the sporting merit aspect is a reward for the best team H2H. It allows them to protect their competitive lineup by not risking an additional yellow card that leads to a suspension in the first game after group stage. Yellow cards reset after group stage.
Second and Third place teams are forced to take the risk to secure a top 2/3rds finish.
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The entertainment should be secondary to the sporting merit, and "who can run it up on curacao" shouldn't be more important than winning the other matches.
As an aside, your frustration is actually more with the expanded tournament that needs 3rd place group finishers to advance to round out the knockout field.
If entertainment is your thing, it should either be higher quality of team on average, and you can achieve that by a) weeding out the bottom feeders from the beginning and having fewer better teams or b) changing the qualifying process to bring more teams from the better federations at the expense of the smaller federations. Literally nothing was wrong with a 32 team field
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so it seems that where you and I disagree is on your first sentence here. You think the tournament should be about the "sporting merit". I think it should be about "entertainment". If we can't agree on that everything else is moot.
If you want it to be about sporting merit h2h as a tiebreak makes sense. If you want it to be about entertainment, it's preferable to have GD as the first tie-break because that forces some drama in the third match (especially since the third match in every group is a simultaneous match so that none of the teams know the result of the other match to strategize around. It forces the teams to put their best foot forward in every game.
I agree there was nothing wrong with the 32 team format (incidentally, back when it was only 32 teams, the tie-breakers were GD and GF ahead of H2H and nobody complained about it then). I was not sure how I would feel about the expanded tournament. It felt like a money-grab by the corrupt FIFA organization. But as a fan who wants to be entertained by this tournament, I've actually enjoyed having more teams, more matches, more stories, etc. It's been fun. Curacao getting mauled by Germany wasn't exactly fun, but for every one of those games, you get Cabo Verde holding Spain to a 0-0 draw. So that's fun! This is the beautiful game. Part of the beauty of it is the unifying nature it has on people from different nations all over the world. I don't hate that there are more teams in this format. I'm also interested in how the dynamics of 8/12 third place teams getting through affects the last group stage game in each group. You're not necessarily going to know which third place teams are in the top 8 until the last day, which adds some intrigue that I think will be fun.
Overall, I'm very much enjoying this tournament. My complaint about the tie-breakers stands, but it's not a deal breaker for me. I have 0 interest in the USA-Turkiye match because it's completely meaningless. But the Australia-Paraguay match will be plenty dramatic since those teams both have a shot at 2nd place and can't count on 3rd getting them through.
My biggest complaint in this tournament so far has been the absolutely rubbish broadcasting by Fox. Fox clearly doesn't understand the sport and the production, particularly the camera work, has been dreadful. Also, Alexi Lalas and Landan Donovan are complete boobs and I'd rather listen to nails on a chalkboard than either of those dweebs. Outside of that, the soccer thus far has been amazing to watch. I worry that there will be a lull next week as we get into the 3rd group stage matches where most of the groups will probably already be decided (because of the h2h tie-break) but it'll amp back up again in the knock-outs, which is always fun.
TL;DR: Agree to disagree? This is a fun tournament and I love watching it every 4 years. Happy watching and Go USA!!!
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GD/GF makes more sense to me as a tiebreaker when only two teams qualify
This is hard for me to wrap my brain around. For 4 of the groups, this is the case. No single 3rd place team is guaranteed so every team has to operate on the assumption that only 2 teams from their group will advance.
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But the current format isn't eliminating teams at this point (after two matches) by saying they cannot finish second because of H2H , it's saying they cannot finish third because of H2H.
The clear advantage of GD/GF in a format where two and only two teams wualify from each group is sussing out the three teams that go 2W1L and finish on 6 pts (or 1W 2D and finish on 5)
I am curious how many 2/3 tiebreaks (with a clear #1) would be different if using GD vs h2h. I suspect not many, because it's kind of hard to finish joint second on pts having lost to the team you're tied with short of a shock result somewhere.
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current format isn't eliminating teams at this point (after two matches) by saying they cannot finish second because of H2H , it's saying they cannot finish third because of H2H.
That's just it tho. I don't think teams should be completely eliminated after just two matches. The best teams will get the points they need to advance regardless of tie breakers. The problem with the h2h tie break in a 4 team group is that after 2 games, more often than not, you're already going to have a team completely eliminated with no remote shot at saving their campaign. Turkiye is a great example. They're done. In the previous format, even tho they would be most likely effectively eliminated, they still have an outside shot at advancing with a win over the US. That gives them something to play for.
Similarly, Mexico has outright won their group after just two games. South Korea is now only playing for second, with no chance to win the group with some help. In previous WCs South Korea would still have a chance to win the group if they beat South Africa by a couple goals (completely possible) and if Mexico loses to Czechia (also completely possible).
Both groups A and D are basically wrapped up just over a week into the tournament. The third games in each group are going to be basically meaningless as a result. I think that's a shame.
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Its been that way before. Recency bias on this one. Just exaggerated being on home soil and expanded field w more lower ranked teams. (And doesn't mean that h2h is a bad tie breaker...)
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16 extra teams this year...
These are (in general) the ones that benefitted from the expanded field:
Uzbekistan 50
Jordan 63
Iraq 57
Bosnia & Herzegovina 64
Cape Verde 67
Congo 46
Ghana 73
Curacao 82
Haiti 83
New Zealand 85
And that means expanded groups, that are also "watered down." No more true groups of death like we've seen previously.
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Uzbekistan - lost their first game
Jordan - lost to Austria, but did score a goal
Iraq - lost to Norway (scored a goal)
Bosnia&Herzegovina - Drew a point from Canada
Cape Verde - 2 points from two games, both against probably the strongest teams in the group (Spain, Uruguay)
Congo - drew a point from Portugal
Ghana - won their first match against Panama
Curacao - got a point from Ecuador and their keeper had an absolute day in the process (15 saves)
Haiti - lost first two matches, have not scored a goal yet
New Zealand - drew a point from Iran before getting pretty well dispatched by Egypt
Overall, these ten teams have acquitted themselves fairly well, considering they "benefitted from the expanded field". 5/10 lost their first match, which I suppose would be expected. The rest of them at least drew against better teams or, in Ghana's case, won a match. I think it's hard to argue that these additional teams have "watered down" the tournament appreciably.
On that note, I do still think there is a group of death. In fact, I think you could argue there are two. I think Group F (Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia) is a very formidable group. Group I is also very strong (France, Norway, Senegal, Iraq). France and Netherlands are among the top teams in the whole tournament. Sweden and Norway both have impressive star power (Gyokeres, Haaland), and most teams form Europe are going to be tough for anyone anyway. Japan is a scrappy and well drilled team, and have been for a couple tournaments now. Ghana is arguably the best team from Africa. Iraq and Tunisia are weaker teams but every group of death has one weak team.
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The rankings are watered down. In 2022 the lowest ranked team in Pot 3 was at 35th. in 2026 the highest ranked team in Pot 3 is 29th.
All of this lends itself to the change from goal differential. If you played the lowest ranked team in your last game (when you've already clinched) no need to try to embarrass them with a 7-nil drubbing just because another team beat them 5-nil in their opener. The other 2 teams should be judged head to head. And with the expanded tournament and an extra round to be played in the middle of summer in the US, there should be a chance to rest (as a reward for winning the first 2 group games) to prep for the potential 5 games ahead.
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it's clear to me we're never going to agree on the tie-breaker issue, and that is okay. It seems evident that you put more value on "sporting merit" than you do on "entertainment" (which, again, is perfectly okay).
I'm the opposite. I think the World Cup, first and foremost, is an event meant to entertain the fans. There's pageantry, pride, sharing of cultures and customs, wholesome experiences had by foreign fans in the host country(ies), stories about teams, players, coaches, etc. It's a month-long entertainment marathon.
In a purely merit based system, h2h is the most sensible tie-breaker in a round-robin style sporting competition. But for entertainment purposes, it falls short because it is too good of a tie-breaker. It's too cut and dry. It's too cold and calculated. It's 100% the best way to determine which team is objectively better than another. But it allows no wiggle room. There's no space for magic or mysticism. It takes away from the dreams of the teams that have no real shot. It puts an end to the journey before the journey actually ends. Teams need to have something more than pride to play for in their last game. There should be a sliver of a chance to advance, no matter how slim, on the last day of group stage. That's how it's meant to be.
Objectively, I concede that h2h is the most robust tie-breaker. But as a fan who wishes to be entertained by an event I believe is meant to entertain, h2h misses the mark.
At the end of the day, you and I are just fans with different perspectives. We both want to enjoy the tournament in our own ways and I'm sure we both will. I have teams that I'm rooting for. I'm certain you do as well. They're likely not the same and that's also okay. I still hope you enjoy the tournament. I know I will.
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Because 3rd place teams (8 of the 12) will advance. This makes the last games matter for more teams than previously for seeding. Before some teams could sleep-walk thru the 3rd game if already qualified or eliminated. With a greater opportunity to advance, they made it about the result on the pitch.
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This makes the last games matter for more teams than previously for seeding
Here's where I completely disagree. And, I hope you're right, and I guess we'll see, but I think the opposite is true.
Case in point - Turkiye. Because of the h2h tiebreak rule, they are completely eliminated after two games. They have 0 points and sit squarely at the bottom of group D. However, they have one more game to play. If not for having already been eliminated, they could conceivably sneak into 3rd place by beating the US IF Australia beats Paraguay by 2 goals. Now, the first part of that equation is unlikely (unless the US rests players since they are thru, regardless) but the second part is very possible. Turkiye could play their best game of the tournament against the US, win 2-0 and watch Paraguay lose to Australia 3-1 and all of a sudden they are in 3rd place with 3 points and an outside shot at advancing. But with the h2h rule, they are completely eliminated, regardless of outcomes. They have no way of jumping either Australia or Ecuador on GD/GF because they have lost both of those matches h2h. In all likelihood, the US, Mexico, Germany, Argentina, Colombia and England will all have wrapped up their groups by the end of game 2. All of those teams are likely to rest players in their final match. Great for them. Unfair for the other teams in the group that have to play for 3rd.
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Since they are eliminated, even if they won 12-0 they wouldn't qualify. They are done. No tie-breaker would get them into the knock-outs. They would have been eliminated under the previous tie-breaker rules as well.
Mexico beat South Korea. If Mexico loses the last match and SK wins, Mexico should win the group. (3 goals in hand)
US beat Australia. Ditto. (5 goals in hand)
Germany beat Ivory Coast. Ditto. (7 goals in hand)
Argentina beat Austria. Ditto. (5 goals in hand)
Other to be determined....
Yeah, the head to head already determined the winner of those group, but do we think anything would be different with them if goal differential were the determining factor? You think it would change any of this in 5 days?
If you assume those that have wrapped up their group would go on and win the 3rd match, it's a moot point. But does show that the field is watered down to some extent with those goal differentials. There were more opportunities to win matches against lower ranked opponents. Some ties and a few wins by the underdog, but not enough to tip the scales. I mean we're headed into a knock-out tournament with the same number of teams that were in the entire thing 4 years ago. Point being, the tie breaker isn't going to make much of any difference except maybe 1 or 2 2nd/3rd place finishers. And both will be moving on.
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They would have been eliminated under the previous tie-breaker rules as well
.
False. Under previous rules, if they beat the US 12-0 and either Paraguay or Australia lose they would be even on points with the loser of the Paraguay Australia game and would jump ahead of them on gd (having scored 12). That would place them in 3rd with a chance to advance.
That's kind of my point. If the tie break rules hadn't changed they'd still have something to play for (third). But with h2h they don't have anything to play for. Australia and Paraguay could draw, which would eliminate Tukiye regardless of their result. But that puts Australia in jeopardy because they finish third and aren't guaranteed to advance. So Australia may want to play for the win. Paraguay would be happy to draw because they'll stay ahead on gd. Does Australia push and try to win, exposing themselves to counterattack or do they play for the draw and hope for the best?
Also, I think you're completely missing my point. I know that Türkiye is effectively eliminated. Many of the weaker teams are. My complaint isn't that weak teams aren't getting into the knockouts. My complaint is that half of the 3rd group stage matches are meaningless. It's better for the fans when teams still have stakes in the games. Mexico should be worried that SK could jump them. I want the teams that have already won their groups to still play their best soccer. We only get this once every 4 years. I don't want to see friendlies.
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FIFA changed the primary group-stage tiebreaker to head-to-head records instead of overall goal difference to bring the tournament in line with UEFA, better handle the expanded 48-team format, and discourage teams from running up the score against weaker opponents
UEFA Championship format is a lot different so it's a weird reason to cite. In UEFA the groups are bigger and the round-robin format is closer to league play, where each team plays each of their opponents twice, once on the road, once at home.
I'm not sure how changing the tie-break rules "better handles the expanded 48-team format." That part is, obviously, debatable. The only part of this tournament that is substantially different (aside from the number of teams) is that now you have 2/3 of the third place teams also advancing. But h2h doesn't really come into play when ranking those top 8 3rd place teams since none of them play each other. It's kind of a meaningless metric for the only real change to the tournament format from previous versions.
This new format hasn't stopped Germany (7-1) or Netherlands (5-1) from blowing out their opponents. I think 1) the idea that the gd/gf format incentivizes teams to blow out weaker opponents is way overblown and 2) nothing about the tie-break rule is going to change whether or not teams blow out weaker opponents (see Germany v. Curacao)
The only incentive that changes with the new rule is that now teams can win their group in 2 matches and use the 3rd match to rest players. Sure, that's an advantage and reward to the strongest performing teams as they prepare for the grueling knock-outs - but it ultimately results in a lesser product for the fans. That third, meaningless game now has no bearing on the outcome of the group. If you love the drama and pageantry of the World Cup, as I do, you're losing a lot of that now. The 3rd match in every group is actually two matches that happen simultaneously so that non of the teams know what's going on in the other game. It heightens the pomp and circumstance of the whole group. The first two matches are the crescendo that erupts to a climax on the final day, where a number of possible score lines in the two games could result in various different group outcomes where teams land in different spots. It forces the teams to play their best soccer in all 3 matches. That is lost with the h2h tie-break rule. Good for the US (And Mexico, and Germany, and Argentina) who have locked up a spot in the r32 already (and will likely also be the case for Colombia and England if they both win their second match). What that means, though, is that the last group stage game is going to be meaningless for half of the tournament field and that's a real shame for the viewer.
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Yeah i agree that none of those reasons presented are very convincing.
I have doubts that many fans were like "oh boo i don't like the world cup because teams run up the score since goal differential is so important. i'd totally watch more games if there was less running up the score"
A) the best teams in the world are playing. I get that with the expanded field now there are worse teams getting in. but this isn't like bama playing Kennesaw state
B) i don't feel like blowouts happened all that much before? If anything i feel like people enjoy seeing more goals but maybe that's just my American casual soccer fandom showing.
C) goal differential does still matter so I doubt teams are really approaching it that differently than before. It's not like it's been completely eliminated as a tiebreaker
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Sports were created to be entertainment. That is their goal to placate the masses so they don't overthrow governments. Who is the best doesnt matter as long as you have some one to cheer for.
We are also talking about FIFA here, one of the most corrupt organizations alongside the IOC. This is about money and kickbacks. They would rig every contest if they thought it would bring them more money.
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This is where I started to jump in and say, "one of them will lose," until I realized that this is soccer, and ties draws are possible. One of the reasons why I find it hard to get into this sport (and hockey).
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at the world cup, every team does eventually lose, at some point. Except the Champion. Although, in the last two tournaments at least (and likely others, I don't have time to look now) the eventual winner did lose a group stage match. Draws add a dimension to the sport that I think is interesting. Psychologically, a draw can be a win or a loss, depending on your perspective. Take the Cabo Verde draw vs Spain. For Spain and their fans, that felt like a loss. For Cabo Verde, that was a massive win. Ultimately, each team gets a point from it. For Cabo Verde, that's a point they were very unlikely to ever get. For Spain, that's two dropped points they feel they should have had. And now, it's set up a very important match between Spain and Uruguay in the final group stage game. Spain have to win or draw Uruguay to win the group. If they lose, Uruguay will pass them on points. Funny enough, if Cabo Verde manages to win against Saudi Arabia AND Uruguay manages to beat Spain, that could drop Spain down to 3rd in their group. That sort of drama can't exist without the feature of the draw. It's beautiful.
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Counterpoint: In the previous 32-team editions, there were still matches on the last day of the group stage that didn't matter because only the top 2 teams advanced in a group.
I'm always going to believe H2H results reign supreme and especially as a tiebreaker where you're playing common opponents.
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Now I wish we had used the other thread where pre-tournament predictions were made. How many teams have underperformed so far because FIFA and pundits propped them up to dominate like always? I work for a company out of Belgium and we have a very large pool going on the games. I said there as I did on TKP teams were going to surprise, good and bad. Yes, it is hardest to play your way in through Europe, based on the sheer number of countries alone and talent levels. But over the last 10 years more and more players have been playing in the top European leagues from outside Europe at younger ages and it is showing in the results. I also think to many teams came in unprepared. Not just for the travel and weather here, but also thinking their groups were easy and they would get out their groups easily. I'm not saying that some random country ranked outside the top 30 will win the WC this cycle, but I think the matchups next round will be very interesting and won't be riddled with the usual suspects.
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Granted, a few 3rd group stage games have been played...
But South Africa has been a shocker in a good way so far. Ranked 60th and last in group, finishing second.
Bosnia and Herzegovina sliding into third in their group is a punching-above-their-weight result.
The United States showing up in the manner they have has been a pleasant surprise.
Egypt leading their group thru 2 games, with Iran and Belgium is an uptick. Only team with a W in their group.
Argentina...while the defending champs, look amazing, again.
-Ecuador only getting 1 point from Curacao and Ivory Coast, now having to face Germany has to be disappointing. And they were unbeaten in 19 matches leading up to the start of the World Cup.
-Belgium Winless thru 2, being ranked #9 in the world, huge let down.
-Senegal winless thru 2. Granted the 2 losses were against Haaland and Mbappe, but you have to get a point!
-Portugal has to be disappointed. A draw against Congo. WC nerves? Too much hub bub around CR7?
-England, doing England things. Looks like worlds best in game 1. Looks like their name is Jeff in game 2.
-Spain laying an egg in their first game was something...
To me, the best part has been the games where one team simply dominated, but walked with a single point. AND, the same day show of Messi/Mbappe/Haaland....chef's kiss.
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Pretty good game. If Cape Verde beat KSA and Uruguay beat Spain, Spain would finish 3rd in that group. If they win and Spain wins, they finish 2nd. Crazy group.
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all big IFs, but if Spain loses and CVI wins cards won't matter because CVI would be on 5 points along with Uruguay and they'd be top 2 (cards may come into play on which of those two is first) but Spain would still finish 3rd on points (which was the original assertion). Cards are irrelevant when it comes to Spain losing and CVI winning to put Spain in 3rd.
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yes, despite my complaints about the tie-breakers, there are still a lot of groups that have important 3rd matches upcoming. Groups B, F, G, H, and I will be exciting to follow.
Group B:
Canada and Switzerland play each other, even on points. If they play for the draw they both advance, with Canada topping the group on GD. However, if either of them win, the loser could be at risk of falling to 3rd depending on the result of the BIV-QAT match. BIV and QAT both have a point each and could secure a 2nd or 3rd place spot in the group with a win. Lots to play for in the BIV-QAT match. A little less to play for in the CAN-SUI match but neither team wants to lose that one and risk falling as far as 3rd.
Group F:
Japan v Sweden is going to be a great match. It's kind of a winner takes all match. 1 point separates them but Japan will want the win to vie for the top spot in the group. Sweden could win the match and catapult themselves to the top of the group if the Netherlands draw Tunisia. Lots to play for there. Netherlands has Tunisia, but I expect they will control that one fairly easily. They will want to win it to secure the top spot in the group, but a draw will be enough to get through to the knock-outs. If Tunisia is able to eek out a win (very unlikely IMO) the Netherlands would drop to 2nd in the group. They'd still advance, of course, but would prefer to top the group.
Group G:
Egypt face off with Iran. Iran needs a result to stay in the top 3. Egypt likely will top the group with a draw but a loss could see them slip as far as 3rd depending on the Belgium-NZ result. Belgium badly needs to win against New Zealand as they currently sit in 3rd and will want to secure a spot in the top two. It's potentially win or go home for them. A draw gets them to 3 points, which just might be enough to advance as one of the top 8 3rd place teams.
Group H:
Cabo Verde and Uruguay each have just 2 points. Cabo Verde plays Saudi Arabia and Uruguay face off with Spain. A draw isn't a good enough result for either, as there is potential that the other could win their tie and push them down into 3rd. Again, same story as group G, 3 points in 3rd place might be enough to get through, but it's not a comfortable place to be. I expect Uruguay will be pushing for a win vs Spain because Cabo Verde, having secured draws against the strongest teams in the group, could realistically get a win vs Saudi Arabia. Spain will be happy with a draw but a loss could be catastrophic for them. If Uruguay and Cabo Verde both win, they will each jump Spain on points, pushing Spain into 3rd. Though, being in 3rd with 4 points is a much safer bet for advancing than being in 3rd on 3. Still, Spain won't want to fall to 3rd and be faced with the prospect of a r32 bout with a strong group winner. Uruguay are currently in 2nd but could fall to 3rd with a loss to Spain, which could put them out of the tournament altogether as 2 points may not be enough to be in the top 8 3rd place teams. Interesting group, this.
Group I:
Obviously, France and Norway face off in a Winner-Takes-All match. If they draw, France will top the group on GD and Norway will finish in the second spot and advance as well. Should one win, the loser will still advance, as the other two teams in the group are on 0 points each and cannot catch up. Now, on the other side of the group. Senegal and Iraq each need to win to keep their hopes alive. 3 points might be enough to finish top 8 of 3rd place teams but 1 point certainly won't be good enough. A draw won't do for either side, so I expect each team will be out fighting for an outright win. Even with a win, nothing is guaranteed for either team. 3 points, I think, is proving to be a tricky place to be for 3rd place teams. Could come down to discipline metrics if enough teams finish with 3 points.
We'll learn a little more today about Groups K and L, but I suspect England and Croatia will win, setting up an important tie between Croatia and Ghana in the third match. Colombia will likely beat Congo, securing a position in the top 2. Portugal need to get a win vs Uzbekistan to set up a big time match between Colombia and Portugal to finish the group. In all likelihood, that will be like the France/Norway match where the winner will top the group but the loser will still advance in 2nd. Congo could secure a 3rd place spot with 4 points if they beat Uzbekistan on the last day.
Most of the other groups are pretty much already settled.
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in my haste, I missed group C. That one is interesting too.
Brazil and Morocco are tied at 4 points each. Scotland has 3. As you mentioned below, Haiti is eliminated. But there's still a lot to play for among the other three teams. Scotland has the most to gain, as they could top the group with a win over Brazil (very unlikely, but that's what I'll be rooting for, for sure). Morocco will need at least a draw to make sure they finish top 2, but I'm sure they will expect to win against an overmatch Haitian team. Brazil will certainly get through with just a draw but they will want to top the group so will likely try to win. A loss, similarly to Spain, would be pretty catastrophic as it could send them down to 3rd if Morocco also win. But with 4 points, they likely would still advance. Just not where they'd want to be.
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The elite crew put on another show yesterday with 6 goals between Messi, Mbappe, and Haaland. They all have above a 9 rating on FotMob for the tournament so far. Enjoy it!
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So I decided to look into the "meaningless games" concern. Looks like I did this one day too early, as two groups play their second round of matches today, but oh well.
Group A:
Mexico 6, South Korea 3, Czech Republic 1, South Africa 1
Mexico Advances, none Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v2, 3v41v3, 2v4
Group F:
Netherlands 4, Japan 4, Sweden 3, Tunisia 0
none Advance, Tunisia Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v4, 2v3
Group G:
Egypt 4, Iran 2, Belgium 2, New Zealand 1
none Advance, none Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v2, 3v4
Group H:
Spain 4, Uruguay 2, Cape Verde 2, Saudi Arabia 1
none Advance, none Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v2, 3v4
Group I:
France 6, Norway 6, Senegal 0, Iraq 0
France and Norway Advance, none Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v2, 3v4
Group J:
Argentina 6, Austria 3, Algeria 3, Jordan 0
Argentina Advance, Jordan Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v4, 2v3
Group K:
Colombia 6, Portugal 4, DR Congo 1, Uzbekistan 0
Colombia Advances, none Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v2, 3v4
Group L:
England 4, Ghana 4, Croatia 3, Panama 0,
none Advance, Panama Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v4, 2v3
Of the ten groups that Now that all twelve groups have completed two rounds of matches, sixseven teams that have already advanced (Mexico, USA, Germany, France, Norway, Argentina, Colombia) and fourfivethat have been eliminated (Haiti, Turkey, Tunisia, Jordan, Panama). Of the sixseven that have advanced, four of them (Germany, USA, Mexico, Argentina) have been placed on the Knockout Bracket, so it seems that France and Norway still have seeding implications to their matches. Therefore, of the forty eight teams in those ten groups, 3239 of them are playing in meaningful games to them. That still seems like a pretty good percentage.
Of the remaining games in those ten groups, fivefourfive groups have (1v2, 3v4) matchups, twothree groups have (1v3, 2v4) matchups, and threefour have (1v4, 2v3) matchups.
I'll revisit this tomorrow after Groups K and L have played their matches today.
Edit: corrected Group A's remaining games and statistics at the bottom
Edit 2: Added results of Tuesday games and updated overall statistics.
Edit 3: Looking back at this, it appears that only Group D and Group J have meaningless games, or "dead rubbers", in what I would define as games where neither team can improve their standing in the group (e.g. 1v4 games where 1 has clinched the top spot and 4 has been eliminated).
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Group A:
Mexico 6, South Korea 3, Czech Republic 1, South Africa 1
Mexico Advances, none Eliminated Remaining matches: 1v2, 3v4
Right off the bat, I think this is inaccurate - Mexico (1) and South Korea (2) have already played (Mexico won 1-0) so your 1v2 match isn't correct. It's actually 1v3, and 2v4. To your point, there are still meaningful matches here. Mexico has already won the group outright so they don't have any reason to seek a result in the last match. The best Korea could hope for is to win and lock up the 2nd spot. A draw would also secure 2nd for them. South Africa and Czechia both need wins to stay afloat. The bottom of the group is where it's interesting. Unlike Group D, where Turkiye is completely eliminated no matter what, South Africa and Czechia both have a reasonably good shot at advancing with wins. South Korea has the most to lose. IF South Africa and Czechia both win (unlikely, but possible) that could knock South Korea down to 3rd and put them at risk of going home.
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Right off the bat, I think this is inaccurate - Mexico (1) and South Korea (2) have already played (Mexico won 1-0) so your 1v2 match isn't correct. It's actually 1v3, and 2v4.
That's correct, I missed that, will update.
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England 4, Ghana 4, Croatia 3, Panama 0,
none Advance, Panama Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v4, 2v3
Although this is technically correct, the only way England won't advance will be if Panama beats them by 2 goals or more AND Croatia beat Ghana. Otherwise, England are in the top 2. Supposing England loses, there's really only one scenario that might happen in the other match to knock them down to 3rd. If Ghana and Croatia draw, Ghana will take the top spot on 5 points and England would be ahead of Croatia on 4 points each due to the h2h tie-breaker. If Ghana wins, England will be in 2nd on 4 points ahead of Croatia and Panama each on 3. If Croatia wins, they jump up to 1st but what happens with Ghana and England will depend on the score differences in the two matches. If Ghana loses, their GD will get worse (right now they are 1 goal behind England) so England will need to lose by 2 more goals than Ghana loses by for Ghana to take the second spot. If, at the end of it all, Ghana and England have the same GD, England will win on GF, as they have scored 3 more goals than Ghana (unless something crazy happens and Croatia beats Ghana 5-4 and England lose to Panama 2-0). Even if that happens, England would likely be one of the top 8 3rd place teams with 4 points. I think it's safe to say England and Ghana each have at least 2 more games left because I think if either falls to 3rd they'll get through on 4 points. Croatia is kind of the wildcard. They could win the group, or they could end up being one of the third place teams in the uncomfortable position of having just 3 points and may need other tie-breakers, like discipline metrics, to get through to the r32.
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I'm happy to have been wrong with the frequency of the "dead rubber" matches. I wonder if any of the group standings would be different if they had kept the old tie-breaker rules that started w/ GD/GF before h2h?
I kinda think the groups are small enough that the points/GD sort themselves out regardless of h2h. I imagine that it all aligns. If you beat a team h2h you beat them on points and GD and they'd have to have a pretty epic result to overcome that. I don't think there have been any cases yet where the h2h tie-breaker is different than the GD tie-breaker would have been.
I guess what I'm saying is I don't see how the results are any different with the h2h tie-breaker rule taking precedence over GD/GF. The only difference I can see is that a couple of teams were completely eliminated from contention before they played their last game. The example I've been using this whole time, Turkiye, won their last game to get to 3 points but they still find themselves in 4th due to the AUS-PAR draw. Had that game ended differently, it would become more interesting as Turkiye finished with 3 GF (more than both Aus/Par) and a GD of -2 (matching Par, and only 1 behind Aus). The whole group might have been different if not for the h2h tie-breaker because the US wouldn't have locked up the top spot, necessarily. Would have been a long shot (and it obviously didn't happen) but if Australia had won by 5 goals they would have jumped the US to take the top spot. Knowing that could have been possible, the US probably doesn't make 9 changes and they probably play differently and win that game against Turkiye.
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Disappointing result for England. Credit Ghana for playing a very defensive low block to frustrate England. England made changes to unlock the low block but it was far too late. They created more chances in the second half but failed to net one. Still lead the group but will need to win their final match to secure the top spot. Nightmare scenario is Panama beats Croatia tonight, making that match very dangerous for England. A loss there paired with Ghana winning over Croatia could knock them down to 3rd. You had better believe England are pulling hard for Croatia
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England are fortunate Croatia wins 1-0. With that result England will advance. A win over Panama secures top spot. A draw could too, provided Croatia and Ghana also draw. If England lose to Panama they could be jumped by one of Croatia and Ghana but not both. I expect Panama to play a more open style than Ghana against England. They'll need to if they want to win and get some points. That will suit England's style more and will lend itself to more clear cut chances that England will surely put in the net.
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Unlikely, but there is potential for as many as 9 3rd place teams to be on 3 points, so having just 3 points is going to be nerve racking for some teams. Scotland and S. Korea might get through. Or they might not. We don't know yet. Tense time for those teams/fans. This new wrinkle has definitely added some intrigue to the tournament, IMO. I think the "cut line" could end up being GD. Scotland were unfortunate to run up against a Brazil team that needed a win to secure the top spot. Losing 0-3 put them in a significant GD hole and should there be more than 8 teams with 3 points or more, Scotland likely will miss out as their GD is -3. That's a real shame, I'd love to see more of Scotland in this tournament. Here's hoping that at least 4 3rd place teams finish on fewer than 3 points.
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Scotland got assblasted by the Brazilian Borg. But if they don't advance, please more Scots realizing our British roots in Boston and having a good time. What a fun run.
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Also, futbol is better when the stars shine. Greatness draws interest in the game. Nobody wants to see a team play with the ball in the midfield up 1-0 for 45 minutes. Teams are pressing for goals, and it is great.
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Yes, the American audience loves scoring. And this particular tournament has not disappointed in that regard. More goals were expected just by the sheer number of teams - still we've been treated to some high scoring matches so far - I expect the scoring will slow down some in the knockouts but as you said, the stars have shown up. All of the big names already have at least 2 goals each through just two games. Messi is well on his way to winning the golden boot already. Wondering how the style of play will change, if at all, during the knockouts. Through group stage, so far, most of the teams tend to have an open style of play, which lends itself to more space that the elite teams can exploit. The low-block boring park-the-bus style of football is less prevalent in this tournament (perhaps thanks to Italy not being in it). Some of the overmatched teams relied on that style to counter the more talented teams (to great effect) but as those teams get knocked out I think we'll see less of the low-block and more high pressing so there will be some higher paced games, I hope.
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I think Group E is going to be the most interesting, even though Germany have already won the group outright. Ecuador is currently in 3rd on 1 point and badly need a win. Germany, don't need a result at all. How will they play? Will they play bench players and take it easy, giving Ecuador a chance to get to 4 points and likely secure a spot in the r32? Or do they play their A game and effectively send Ecuador home? On the other side of the group, Curacao isn't actually fully eliminated yet. They could conceivably win over Cote d'Ivoire and get to 4 points, which likely gets them through. Cote d'Ivoire needs at least a draw to feel comfortable, as they currently have just 3 points. That will be an interesting match because Curacao definitely needs a win and Cote d'Ivoire can't afford to lose.
Group F is a bit less interesting. I think Netherlands has a favorable matchup with Tunisia. Tunisia are eliminated. Even if they win, they will be behind Sweden on h2h. Netherlands will want to win that to top the group, so they're not holding any punches and they have proven they can score in bunches. Tunisia, on -8 GD, will give up goals. I don't think it'll be a very interesting match. Netherlands should win easily. On the other side, however, Japan and Sweden are battling for a top spot in the group. Japan has the advantage with the 1 point lead in the group so a draw will be fine for them, but a loss could knock them down to 3rd. On 4 points, they'd have to feel pretty confident they'd advance, though. Sweden doesn't have that luxury. 3 points may be enough, or it may not. They benefit from a 0 GD at the moment but a landslide loss could scupper them. Sweden will need at least a draw, and preferably a win to keep their tournament alive. They'll be pressing and that could open up the game and provide Japan with opportunities to lock up the 2nd spot in the group.
Group D is the least interesting for the day. The US has topped the group and are playing in a meaningless friendly against a team that has been eliminated already. Neither team has any stake in the match. I'd expect the US to rest players. Turkiye may try for a win, for pride's sake, but it'll be a hollow victory, should they manage to get one. The other side of the group is more interesting. Australia and Paraguay are playing for 2nd. A draw likely gets them both through to the r32. Paraguay is at more risk of going home if they lose as they have a -2 GD and 3 points. Neither team wants it to come down to GD, though, so I expect both will be playing for the win. Paraguay needs the win more than Australia does, as a draw would leave Australia in 2nd. But Paraguay also can't afford to lose as much as Australia can, so they need to tread lightly and not open themselves up to counterattacks that could put them behind.
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Australia Paraguay could be interesting as well. The 2/3 matches are fascinating to me with the wrinkle that some 3rd place teams will also advance. In previous tournaments, if each team has a shot at the 2nd spot they each fight tooth and nail to get that win. In this tournament, some teams have the luxury of feeling comfortable advancing in 3rd and that could change the dynamics of the game. I'm not sure yet if that's a good thing or not. I expect most teams will play hard for 2nd but the stakes are different. The risk of losing isn't quite as high. But does the lower risk encourage more open play? Or does the desire to get a point and get through at 3rd encourage teams to sit back and ping the ball around at midfield? I guess we'll see.
It could take a couple tournaments in this format to get an idea of how teams will approach their last match when they have 3 points going in, as is the case for several teams (Korea, Scotland, Australia, Paraguay, Cote d'Ivoire, Sweden, Austria, Algeria, Croatia all have/had 3 points after two matches). I think Korea was pretty gutted with the loss last night. But they still have 3 points and a decent shot at advancing, depending on how other groups play out. But, they might also be going home. There are currently 5 3rd place teams on 2 points or less in the remaining groups. If they all lose, then all the teams with 3 points or more will advance. If half of them win or draw, then you'll have more than 8 teams with 3+ points and someone with 3 points is going home. I think it'll make for some good drama over the next couple days as we find out where other groups land. We'll see. I know Korea and Scotland are on the edge of their seats, hoping for the favorites to win the rest of the way. They could both get through, or they could both go home. Or Scotland might be going home while Korea advance. Nobody knows!!! Yet.
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Looking ahead, I think tomorrow's games in groups G and H are going to be even better. Everyone will want to watch France and Norway but that's not actually a very high stakes game. The winner tops the group and the other comes second. Both advance regardless. Ho-hum. The other side of that group is playing for 3rd, so that'll be kind of fun as both teams need to win. A win is the only path forward, and even then, it's not guaranteed to get them a spot in the knockouts.
But G and H have all kinds of possibilities. The group leaders only have 4 points. The second and third place teams in both groups have 2 each, and the last place teams are sitting on 1 point each. In each group, the group leaders are playing the group runners up. In both groups, the current group leaders could fall as far as 3rd and the current group losers could rise as far as second. There's a ton of possible outcomes including potentially having third place teams finishing on 3 points, which I think is in that zone of uncertainty. You could just as easily see 3rd place teams finish on 4, which I think will be good enough to advance. I think those two groups might have the best run of day 3 matches out of all 12 groups.
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The interest in France/Norway will be on trying to figure out if they are that good due to being undefeated or was their bracket that weak. Does France/Norway have what it takes to make a deep run towards the Cup?
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well, yes, that, and also two scoring superstars in Haaland and Mbappe. There's a fair amount of intrigue in that match and it could be a preview of the Final match (though, unless Norway win, I don't think anyone thinks they'd make it that far). I didn't mean to downplay it. A lot of people will want to watch it and for good reason. It's just not that much of a high-stakes match since both teams are guaranteed a spot in the r32.
I do think France has what it takes to make a deep run. Norway is the question mark, IMO. If they play France tight and that game ends 1-0 or 2-1 either way then I think Norway's side of the bracket should be worried about them. Everyone is already worried about France, so I don't think anything changes there. It's certainly an interesting game but I don't think it's the most compelling of the day. That was all I was saying.
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Predictably, the US has made 9 changes. This is a throw-away game for them. I'm certain the players that will start will play their hearts out. They want to make a name for themselves and they want to do the best they can to win wearing the American flag. I think they could still win but this game isn't about winning for the US. I think the way it goes will be somewhat dependent on how Turkiye come out. Will they come out with vigor and vim (to quote Dr. Seuss) or will they be going through the motions as they've already been defeated? That could be the difference between this game being competitive or not.
I'll take the US in a relatively boring 1-0 type of match. 9 points will feel good going into the knockouts against (in all likelihood) Bosnia & Herzegovina.
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Oh, I didn't know it was official. I knew that of the 495 possible combinations, 329 of them had 1D facing 3B. Interesting that they've already eliminated enough of the possibilities to know that it's locked in. That surprises me a bit since there's still several groups with teams that could miss the cut. I mean, there are still 6 groups left to play that have 3rd place teams sitting on 3 or fewer points. Any of those teams could either fall short of the 4 points that seem necessary to guarantee advancing, or get there (with the lone exception of Senegal, who have 0 right now)
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They're likely right. I went and looked at my spreadsheet and it's looking that way. Since there are already 3 3rd place teams guaranteed to max out at 3 points (Scotland, Korea, Senegal/Iraq winner) it's most likely that 4 points will get through. Not guaranteed tho. Although it's extremely unlikely, there's a world where there could be 9 3rd place teams on 4+ points. If that happens, Bosnia could actually get knocked out on GD/GF.
As of now these are the teams that could end on 4+ points in 3rd place (I've put GD for teams that I know if they finish on 4+):
Bosnia & Herzegovina(-2)
Paraguay (-2)
Ecuador (0)
Sweden (0)
Iran/Belgium
Senegal/Iraq
Algeria (-2)
Congo
Croatia
Thats 9 3rd place spots that could be at 4+. Then it'll come down to GD. There are a few teams at -2. From there it'll go to GF. Bosnia & Herzegovina have the advantage here but if Paraguay and Algeria both score 2+ goals then they could get bounced. Super unlikely. In all likelihood the teams that get to 4 points will advance. Since we know three of them (Bosnia & Herzegovina, Ecuador, Sweden) that eliminates a bunch of the possible pairings and the only remaining possible pairings all have 1D v 3B. So although it's not completely set in stone it's pretty gd close.
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The absence of depth at striker and midfield will be the undoing of this team in the knockout round. I love Pepi but his hold up play is non-existent, and Weah couldn't stay onside to save his life. The second half was atrocious from the midfield. Last but not least, Pulisic had to drop deep too often when he came on, and it nullified his pace on the wing. The game winning goal was a byproduct of Pulisic being so aggressive on defense, that an extra body was in the box, which is the cause for the extra man on the back post. Tough loss. We go again...
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I'm far from anything remotely resembling a soccer expert, but I feel like the starting defenders are a much bigger risk than the missing depth at midfield and striker.
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I think both are true. Our starting XI are solid and I think could go toe to toe with most of the teams in the tournament. Defense is an issue, but that's true for a lot of the attacking teams. When you attack with 6 or 7 and press high you leave yourself susceptible to counter attacks. Canada, Morocco, US, Germany, Uruguay, Norway, Sweden, England and Croatia have all given up multiple goals, in part because they tend to be front-footed, which leaves a lot of space in behind for their opponents to attack and capitalize on. That's the nature of the beast. To make a deep run in the tournament teams need to have depth. Teams like France, Spain and England have that depth. Norway, US, Germany, Argentina aren't quite as deep. Defensively, I think the US probably has more liabilities than the top teams, but it's always going to be difficult to defend when you're pressing high if the opponent is able to play through or over the press. That is part of what makes teams like France and Spain so dangerous. They have the depth and talent to defend in a mid-block and the pace and technical skill to exploit the space in behind when teams leave that space for them. Spain struggled to unlock Curacao's low block (same as England vs Ghana) in part because they are built to sustain attacks and counter attack with speed and technically precise attackers. Unlocking a low block requires a special type of talent (like a Messi, or Modric) which not every team has. I think Argentina can ride Messi to a deep run. The rest of that roster built around him his well drilled. I'm not sure they have the depth to go to the final again.
I think the US has attacking pieces (Balogun, Pulisic) but they do lack depth there. The midfield starters are adequate but their backups I think leave something to be desired. The defense is just okay, but that's kind of true of a lot of the teams in this tournament.
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I agree with everything you say here. My frustrated post from last night post game was more an indictment of what I saw in the match. Weah had a terrible game, he said it himself. Reyna's inability to make quick decisions showed up a couple of times on turnovers. Granted I can be transparent enough to say I was focused on Reyna's performance last night, because I wanted Luna to get the call-up to the squad. I think Luna has the talent to find the decisive pass that a lot of our reserve midfielders lack.
Our starting XI can go toe to toe with a lot of teams, and can put up a fight, which is why I think we will fair well in our 1st knockout game. However, Poch will need to find viable reserves to make the kind of run that we want as a nation of supporters.
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Yeah, Weah had an off night for sure. I kept commenting on it during the match as I watched with my wife. And I could tell he knew it when he was subbed out in the second half. He knew he had a bad game. He was loose with the ball and looked slow. The only opportunities he created were from offsides positions. He just didn't look sharp and that hurt us.
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To me it looked like you had a bunch of guys who never played with each other playing with each other. Kicks to nobody abounded. If they keep playing that like that our streaking of never winning three games in the cup will continue.
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I have not been impressed with Pepi AT ALL. Thank all that is holy in futbol that Balogun decided to play for the US or we would have the faintest threat up front.
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My concern from last night was why nobody could stay on their feet.
Did it rain? Did they over water? Too many slips and falls which I think attributed to some of the misplays making us look sloppy. It was to the point I was concerned with contact less injuries.
Also, I don't think the officiating was very good. I think they understood it was a meaningless match and let players get away with manslaughter.
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That ref did 2 games in the 2022 World Cup, and this was his second game in 2026. The other was Haiti-Scotland, which was also a rough game with limited cards for the action...
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I'll bet it has something to do with the fact they had to build a grass field on top of turf. FIFA mandates that all playing surfaces are real grass. To win bids, stadiums had to agree to building real grass surfaces on top of their turf fields and that is 1)not sustainable and 2)means the subsurface is probably not settled. America has done most of the things hosts need to do very well. But the stadiums just aren't designed for big time soccer and it shows.
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The field was constructed of several levels on top of the existing surface. Drainage, vaccum ventilation, subsurface hydration, etc were installed. Nearly all of the fields are identical. It wasn't just grass on turf.
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I understand that. I know it's not just grass on turf. But it's a temporary field. Proper soccer stadiums have permanent grass surfaces. A temporary surface is never going to match the quality of a permanent grass field.
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Seattle was designed with soccer in mind but its about the only one.
I think they had to have overwatered about 8 yards out from the box on the US attacking end in second half. At least five players fell or a pass/shot was botched because plant foot didnt stick.
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They did "grow" 3 different strains of grass for the different zones/regions from south to north. They vary a bit from the initial thought, but they have a 2' sandwich on top of the base level of most fields that have been meticulously taken care of for months leading up. These are the best agronimists in the world, and FIFA hasn't messed with them. I know a few gold guys that know a few on the team, They are in awe of what they've done for this world cup.
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Norway made 10 changes from the last match. Lol. I bet that felt disrespectful to France (and personally I'm always for disrespecting les bleus). Norway fans are apparently not happy about it. They understand it, but they don't like it.
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Kind of with you there. They knew they were into the second round why bother with risking additional yellow or red cards. Rest the starters and plan for the next match.
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Paraguay and Germany will be remembered as one of the best games of the tournament, and it might not even be the best game of the day, with Netherlands and Morocco later today.
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The goalie was stationary when the offensive player moved into him and put 2 hands on him, THEN the goalie moved towards where the ball was going and fell down with some weak contact. The foul was for moving into the goalie and grabbing him with 2 arms and then never making any attempt to do anything other than block the goalie on that play.
I just watched the highlights since I didn't see it. I think Mark Clattenburg said something along the lines of "it's a foul but it's a pretty soft foul" and I tend to agree with that. Really could have gone either way, IMO. Unfortunate for Germany. They had their chances, though, and were unable to capitalize. Two of the penalty misses occurred from slow/stuttered run-ups and trying to read or bait the keeper. I hate that. It's nonsense. Just pick a spot and put the ball there with confidence and pace. The kicks that went in, even when the keeper guessed correctly, were placed with speed and confidence, without a stuttering run-up. That should be the model. Havertz and Woltemade overthought their kicks and were ultimately blocked. Stop trying to outsmart the keepers. Just run up and hammer it home. The faster you do it the better. Netherland's misses were similar last night. Too cutesy.
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Mark clattenburg also declined to actually say what he thought until the on field official made and announced his decision, super weak and waffley like he's always been
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IMO: Stuttering and attempting to bait the keeper should be banned. If the keeper can't move off his line, it should be illegal for the offensive player to try and bait the keeper into moving.
But since it's not illegal: it's still a terrible way to take a PK. If I was a coach and someone attempted to do that after I've instructed them not to, they'd be benched. The success rate for PKs (I've seen this World Cup alone) is roughly 10%. Almost every time they miss.
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Although I do agree with you 100%, I was disheartened to learn that, according to both Total Football Analysis and The Athletic, based on international samples sizes, stuttering in the run-up to taking penalty kicks yields a slightly higher conversion rate than "conventional" run-ups. I don't know how good the statistical analysis is, or what other factors may or may not be considered.
But from the eye-test, and in my own experience, I find the stutter-step style to be less effective.
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If an appeal should exist, it should be every nation appealing why Messi hasn't been red carded twice or received any subsequent bookings for his offenses.
In theory, Messi should have only been allowed to play the first half of Game 1 and would've been ineligible for the rest of Group Stage.
FIFA loves their poster child though. And I say this actually liking Messi.
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Only in the replays that start after the german player moved into the goalie while the goalie was stationary. The movement of the goalie to move for the ball was after the german player already had 2 arms around him and then the german player never even attempted to do anything other than obstruct the goalie.
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This, pretty much. He was a couple feet away from the goalie, then at the kicked moved right at the goalie with both hands out, then pivoted left. It look like his right shoulder in the pivot knocked the goalie off balance as the goalie tried to turn to where the ball was going. Either way, the move toward the goalie to hinder/block him is what drew the foul, IM(ns)HO. And I don't even know the rules all that well. ;^)
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yeah for real. Two of the four game so far have gone to PKs. However, I do expect France to win pretty easily tonight. I think the Ecuador-Mexico tie will be super interesting. I think Ecuador could steal that one, and frankly, though I dislike both sides, I think that's what I'll be rooting for. Norway-Cote d'Ivoire is another interesting one. I sort of expect Norway to win that (with their starters, hopefully) but CIV could be dangerous. I'll probably be rooting for CIV since my brother and his wife both served in the Peace Corps there so there's kind of a connection. I like Norway too, though. That should be a fun game and I'll be happy regardless of the result.
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France losing would be fantastic. I don't think it'll happen today, though. Should they get through, though, Paraguay will make their lives difficult, I hope. If they frustrate France that might be enough to steal one. Then, France likely have Morocco in the Quarter Final and Morocco is a very solid team. They could give them some real trouble. If the US is able to make it to the Semi-final they will likely see either France or Morocco, IMO
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Coming into the tournament Paraguay was the #41 team and Sweden the #38. During the tournament paraguay moved up to #34 and sweden to #37. Paraguay is going to be pretty tired for the next game after relying on lots of endurance to get past germany
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Honestly, I'm not sure anyone is going to stop France. They look absolutely terrifying. They just have soo much quality all over the pitch. It's kind of unfair
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I mean, we're only 5 games into the first knockout round, but it has NOT. DISAPPOINTED. We're getting some great matches so far. It's been fun to watch.
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I'm going to have to start looking for daily recap videos. All I've seen so far is the USA game recaps, and a few highlights (and that Germany penalty above). Not sure I want to watch game recaps alone, maybe some recap of the day that talks about the significance of the games as well. Thoughts?
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I've found myself watching the Telemundo feed despite only knowing a few phrases and words of Spanish (4 years of goofing off in the back of class gets me that) because of how bad Fox is. Everything is so bland. Even when a goal is scored there's barely any excitement. At least on Telemundo I can feel the passion even I don't understand all the commentary. Once again The Simpsons proving true to life
Canada and Mexico both advance. Will the USMNT choke, or make the host nations 3/3? I have a sinking feeling it'll be the former, but would love to be wrong
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The way the US played in group stage, I expect them to win tonight. Pochettino has the team well balanced and their tactics are good enough to advance. The team played with a ton of energy and aggression in the first two matches as well. I think if they score early they will cruise. My concern would be if it's scoreless at half time the team may start to get a little frustrated and antsy and try to force or rush things. If they stay patient and play their game I think they will get to the round of 16 where they will face either Belgium or Senegal (and my money is on Senegal)
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I think we can score in 60th min before making any subs and still be okay
We can also score in the first 10 minutes. The US has gotten out to fast starts all tournament long (scoring a goal in the first 11 min in all 3 games), so I wouldn't be surprised to see an early goal. But, because the US has gotten out to early starts all tournament, I'd be worried how they react to not scoring in the first half. I think they would still win if they stick to their identity, but it'll be interesting to see how they handle the adversity if they go into half scoreless.
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I think Belgium are kind of lucky to be in the knockouts, to be honest. Senegal had to play Norway and France. They're more battle tested and I think are the better team. Belgium aren't pushovers though. They have talent, and experience. It'll be an interesting match but I expect Senegal to win it
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ran into a co-worker in the parking lot this morning, who used to play in bosnia & herzogovina's top league. fun conversation walking in today. can't wait for the game tonight!!
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not for me, it hasn't. England look completely discombobulated. I think before the game they must have talked about how going down 0-1 early would be the worst case scenario. They've been panicked ever since.
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Same in most airports if they bother to label it. That is the official "put your belt and shoes back on even though there really isn't a reason to take them off"-area
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I remember asking one time after they implemented all that crap if I really needed to take off my sneakers and was told no. Then after I went through I was pulled aside for a detailed exam due to failing the metal detector. Of which, I was polite about it but also told them bullshit I knew I had no metal on me as even the zipper on my shorts was synthetic. If they had wanted my shoes off I would have done so if they had said they needed to come off.
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Yes, if not for being up against England, I'd have been rooting for Congo. They've played a very brave and exciting game. They have a lot to be proud of
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The talent gap on a team level has grown tighter. This has been one of my favorite WC cycles to watch in a while. Past editions it felt like you knew who was going to make to the final 8 at least. I think it also shows what most people already knew, FIFA rankings show favoritism.
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Interesting tidbit. Mexico has apparently played every game so far in Mexico City not having to travel at all. They get the advantage that their opponents come to them and have to play at altitude with little time to adapt. Is this the first time a team has not had to travel at all? Their last opponent filed a complaint with FIFA that they were unable to rest well at their hotel due to locals launching fireworks the night before their match.
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VAR just put a red card on the US in yet another sketchy call. Bosnia was getting away with worse in the first half for no penalty, we get a red card on our best player. They seem to want us out of the tourney.
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And he's lucky the US crowd isn't like that Brazilian crowd from 2013; we may have THOUGHT about doing something to the ref but I doubt we would ever have stoned him to death THEN cut his head off and THEN have him drawn and quartered AND put his head on a pike at midfield of the stadium!
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This sounded absolutely wild, so I looked it up. Crazy tragic story.
The tl;dr version: Ref and player got into altercation during unsanctioned, unofficial soccer event. During altercation ref pulled out a knife and stabbed player to death, after which, friends and family of slain player stormed field and essentially did all of the above (in skippy's post) to the ref. Wild story.
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Yes- it was particularly relevant because the altercation was due to the ref showing a red card to the player who then refused to leave the field and came at the ref who then stabbed him to (eventual) death and the rest happened as noted.
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I wasn't trying to minimize your point in any way. Yes, the altercation (ostensibly*) began with the issuing of a red card, so it is relevant in that way.
I just wanted to give people a little bit of context to the crazy story. Yes, it started with a red card. However, it didn't go straight from red card to putting the ref's head on a stake. I'm not trying to victim blame here and I don't condone any acts of violence, nor the retribution for acts of violence. I just thought it was important how the escalation led to the head on a stake. Also, I think, important to note that the event was an amateur soccer match that was not sanctioned by any sort of soccer governing body, so who knows what kind of formal training, if any, that either the officials or players had.
*there's no telling what preceded the red card - I'm sure that throughout the match the player and ref probably had exchanges that built towards the larger, more substantial, and ultimately tragic, altercation.
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He kicked the other players on the bottom of his foot and it screwed up the step because the guy stepped in front of the US player, then he got his heel.
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After the dogshit red call, the announcers saying the team was gonna have to "suffer" immediately took my brain to the "suffer in Norway" part of the Miracle drinking game (take a shot every time Herb says "again") and now I'm even more convinced we win the whole fucking thing.
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If FIFA want to hose us with a shitty call, then tell them to F off on all their stupid requirements. Take the sponsor blocking banners down on the stadiums, tell FIFA kick rocks.
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All of the clips of the red card start too late and miss how the bosnian cut behind balogan and knocked him off balance and how balogan was just coming down weirdly after being hit from behind
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Despite not scoring early last night, they held their form, didn't press and fall out of sorts, and got one before the half. Defense was solid. Tillman was one of the best on the pitch (even without the free kick.) Weston was taking care of his zone while Adams took care of his. Ream possibly had the biggest non-scoring moment in the box blowing up a great goal opportunity from them late in the second half.
Gonna be a tough pill with Flo, but this team has matured A LOT. Two, three, four years ago, they would have moped for 4 days and come out flat. But I have faith Poch will have them focused, make the right decision, and have them on the pitch ready to avenge 2016 against Belgium. Wright could be a 1-for-1 swap with no other changes. Or bring Reyna in as a false 9 to play high in front of Weston, and he and Pulisic can rotate around. I'd like to see Gio on the pitch.
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This is the first game I've have had a chance to watch of the US team and haven't really followed a lot of the cup this time around. I fully expected them to fall apart after the card and get mopey and slow based on historical performances. I was really amazed that not only did they not look dejected, they played aggressive even a man down.
BH had more opportunities late because of the advantage and because they were pressing, but it wasn't because of a lack of effort on the US side and I feel like that is different from other US teams I've seen.
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Saw this today and thought it was pretty touching as a relatively new Chattanoogan. There is a lot to complain about pretty much everywhere, but the World Cup and the way people have treated visitors and teams has been a really bright spot in the past few weeks.
I continue to be impressed by this version of USA soccer. Even with 10 players, after they took the initial brunt of B&H attacks, they took control and continued to look like the better team. It reminded me a little bit of the Brazil of old, can't remember the year but they had teams that could continue to play beautiful futbol with less players. They continue to create opportunities with great individual and team play. Sharp passing into tight spaces, creating space out of nowhere. Fast and effective counter-attack and sound defensive play. I was expecting a 100% shut-down to hold-off B&H attacks, but instead, we kept pressing. That's not the play I've grown accustomed to expect from our team.
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Continue to be impressed with this version of the USMNT. I've never seen them play this way in my life. Refreshing. I'm confident if we had Balogun we would win against Belgium. Without him, toss up. That red card angers me. Seemed overly harsh given the circumstances. I don't think that ref was particularly good tbh
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Frankly I think it was a product of unfair officiating from the initial whistle. He completely lost control of the game following the red card.
One of the reason's American's dislike soccer is the subjectivity of it all with the harsh penalties following. Why isn't their room for a tiered red card system. Anyone with eye balls could tell there was no intent to injure behind Balogun's challenge.
I think it was a bogus call but could accept the red card 1 (no suspension following ejection) but to lose our best player in the biggest tournament in the world is ridiculous.
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my biggest gripe in sports is how much is just vibes.
football: ball placement, what is/isn't a catch
soccer: anything having to do with the clock, what is card-able when
baseball: the strike zone
basketball: what even is a foul?
The opportunity for manipulating the game is high for no real reason. Remove the ambiguity where possible, especially in instances where a minor change can have drastic effects on outcomes.
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One of the reason's American's dislike soccer is the subjectivity of it all with the harsh penalties following
Meh. I don't buy this. There's subjectivity in officiating of American sports too. Pass interference? Roughing the passer? Targeting? Flops in basketball. Baseball ejections
There are other reasons Americans don't like soccer but I think it's disingenuous to blame subjective officiating, considering our sports are also riddled with it
Edit to add: I think one of the [many] reasons Americans don't like soccer is because we've never really been good at it. Americans like to win. We like sports where we are better than everyone else in the world. Soccer isn't that.
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Yeah we are going to agree to disagree then. We just watched our best player get suspended for the biggest game in our countries history because of a subjective call that WENT to video review. We don't have the ability to appeal the suspension but they can review it for additional games suspended. It isn't logical.
There isn't an example that you can provide me that equates to the BS of what happened last night. There are plenty of subjective calls in our leagues. Not a single one of them has the same implications as the red from last night.
In my American mind the rules are broken and should be reviewed. Messi committed an identical foul. How can one player be ejected and suspended and the other is going to win the golden boot?
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I think you're right to be angry about the call last night. It was a bad call. They happen. Sometimes you benefit from it. Sometimes you don't. I don't think it's the reason Americans don't like soccer.
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I think American's tuning in for the first time only to learn that was the outcome of said foul are immediately turned off because of the absurdity of the result.
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I don't think the call was absurd at all honestly, but that's my opinion on the matter. I watch a TON of football, and that call is a red card, 9 times out of 10. The moment it happened, I turned to a room full of US fans, and said, "studs up usually results in a red, no matter the intent." The only one that agreed with me, was my Pastor sitting next to me who is from Wales. I left to grab a beer, only to come back to a room full of dejected fans. I never said I told you so, but I'm sure the look on my face said enough.
I don't think Flo's intent was to hurt the player, he wasn't looking at the players leg (a la Messi), his focus was on the ball that was inbound to the player, and the player slowed the rate of his run, so it easily could've been deemed as a "players coming together" moment; however, the studs up, paired with the rolling of the ankle is what pushed it to a red imo. Player safety is huge for these tournaments, and as players and clubs complain more and more about how much football is played throughout the year, and the toll it takes on their body, these calls will continue to be called.
If I were the ref would I have called a red? Nope! But again, studs up...
I think we'll be fine, Belgium looked rather toothless, and I think they came back simply because Senegal tired throughout the later stages of the match. Belgium are like a lot of teams that have gone out early, including my German team, they rely on talent, more than the collective team play. And I think this WC has truly allowed the teams that play as a team, to shine the most, including the US. Now, hopefully Poch goes with Haji over Pepi, if just for his hold up play, and ability to finish. As I said earlier, the teams with the most depth, and the teams that use that depth as interchangeable pieces while still executing that game plan will be the teams that make it the furthest. Our depth will be tested against Belgium. Yes they have DeBruyne, Doku, Trossard, Youri, et. al; my biggest worry is the guy between the post Thibaut Courtois. That guy is notorious for showing up in big games. We challenge Courtois consistently in a similar way as Senegal did, then I think we have the grit to finish the match off in a way that Senegal didn't. #GoYanks
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This kind of proves my point on officiating. American's are going to have a hard time wrapping their head around the result of that play warrants ejection and a one game suspension in the worlds biggest tournament. It wasn't egregious and was a result of the 2 players making a play for the ball. He didn't make a slide tackle studs up. The momentum and contact caused it.
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It wasn't a typical "studs up" tackle. Studs up would have been him leading in with the studs already up and exposed. At the most it is a yellow for a dangerous play. VAR also is not supposed to be used in that manner. The replays were clips that did not show the full development of the play leading to the foul. There was no excessive force or intensity. It appeared intense because it was replayed in slow motion. I think you have to look at it from the position of how the rules are written and expected to be executed.
The official rule is written in a way to allow the ref to easily defend their decision, but typically they hand out punishment based on three levels of challenges under the Laws:
Careless – Free kick only, no card.
Reckless – Yellow card.
Using excessive force or endangering the safety of an opponent – Red card for serious foul play.
Can it be defended, yes, but 9 times out of 10 it would not be a red card and there are many examples in this tournament cycle where it hasn't been.
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That other time is Messi. The golden child. Such entitlement bullshit. He should have been OUT for that and next game, and he'd be in a totally different situation. The lack of consistency between these 2 specific calls is EGREGIOUS.
There is no other way to see this.
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I COMPLETELY agree with you, Messi should've received a red as well; I watch the EPL though, so I'm used to the inconsistency of refereeing, for better or for worse.
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So much for the "next man up" mentality. I'm not going to stop watching football because a bogus targeting call results in our star linebacker missing the first half of the next game. 🤷
Turning off a soccer game because of one bad call impacting one of the best players is soft imo. I don't think it's a reason to dislike the sport at large. I think it's an excuse for not being interested in the sport.
I am angry about the call. It was bad and severe. But the team continued to play well and scored another goal to secure the win. That should be celebrated. This team has already gone further in this tournament than a lot of people thought they could just 1 year ago.
I don't think anyone had any delusions of grandeur about this tournament. USA were not expected to seriously contend for the cup. Part of the reason for that is depth. Our starting XI are pretty good. Not much talent behind them. The teams that win are much deeper. That depth is needed in case of injury or suspension. It's part of the game.
But if you don't like soccer that's fine. I'm not trying to proselytize you.
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I like soccer and you are missing my point. I will continue to watch and support but when my dumb American friends question that play, there is not a good answer. It is a stupid rule and a stupid outcome.
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There's a pretty good article in The Athletic talking about how VAR is being utilized, and ques
tioning the use of slow-motion/still footage in reviews. The still shots and slow-motion can distort context of the play on the field that is more easily judged from full-speed footage.
This is because football is not a sport played in slow-motion or with a freeze-frame. It is played at high speed, in full motion. Its largely subjective rulebook was designed to be implemented via the estimation of well-placed on-field officials, attuned to the pace of a match, rather than to be accounted for in a studio at the speed of a tortoise from an unlimited number of camera angles.
To show the challenge to the referee at a different speed from the incident he originally adjudicated upon is to warp and distort the judgment, removing context from the call. Slowed down, an accidental collision can resemble a premeditated attack. A bad challenge can become a horror show.
In fact, there may be some question that video review is being used incorrectly, against guidance:
There is also a valid question as to whether VAR applied the use of slow-motion replays in a manner according to the protocols set out by IFAB, the body which makes the laws of the game.
IFAB's guidance says: "The VAR can 'check' the footage in normal speed and/or in slow motion but, in general, slow-motion replays should only be used for facts, e.g. position of offence/player, point of contact for physical offences and handball, ball out of play (including goal/no goal); normal speed should be used for the 'intensity' of an offence or to decide if it was a handball offence."
In this instance, the term 'in general' appears to be doing some exceedingly heavy lifting, while the VAR team could perhaps argue that slow-motion was used to demonstrate the point of contact. The repeated use of slow-motion, however, appears to go against the spirit of the VAR guidance and to have been used to exaggerate the intensity of the offence.
A pretty good, thought-provoking article about how VAR is being used, and how it can get things wrong.
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That's certainly one of the reasons, but the sport doesn't own a monopoly on shitty rules and shittier officiating. As others have noted, there are many examples across American sports. Basketball has became nearly unwatchable for me because of the rules and officiating. The offensive player initiates contact, but the defender is called for the foul? I hate that among others.
That said, I have a much greater appreciation for soccer these days because I understand the game better after watching my son play at a semi-advanced level as a kid. But there are two things that really irritate me:
1) Offsides - I completely understand the rationale for the rule. But to me it's the main reason why the game can seem so boring to many casual American viewers. It makes scoring so much more difficult than it should be IMO. Why not establish an "offensive zone" where once the ball is in the zone, there is no more offsides. Maybe it's a line that runs along the top of the box? (Is that the 10m box or something like that?) That keeps teams from just posting players as poachers, but would open up scoring.
2) The flopping. I hate it. And I also get that the rules encourage it so why not try to take advantage of it (maybe it's like NASCAR of old - "if you ain't cheatin' you ain't tryin'?), but I still despise it. What aver happened to being tough and not letting the other team know they hurt you? I know it's probably never going to change, but I still hate it and it turns me off from being a better follower of the game.
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Oh I understand it, I just think it limits scoring too much. The second offsides call that wiped off the goal last night was pretty obvious in replay, but it still sucked. And maybe the BH defender really was smart and quick thinking enough to let our guy make himself offsides, but I'm not so sure. I think our player was just quicker and put himself in position to score. The offsides that wiped off the first goal was crazy close. But I understand it was the correct call by the rules. I just wish the rules were a little less rigid by construct and could be relaxed in a way that opens up scoring while still protecting the spirit of the rule.
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I wasn't saying that you didn't understand the rule. I was saying that I think its not a bad rule once it's understood. I thought it waa stupid before I understood. Totally get that people disagree.
Though I think it could be better. If youre off by a toe or a shoulder, it shouldn't be offside. But I don't know how best to draw that line
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Flopping is the primary reason why I hate teams from South America, Portugal, Spain, and Italy. They are the worst for it. Not only do they flop incessantly, but they play physically aggressive and will actually foul the other team pretty hard and then when that happens they complain and accuse the other team of diving/flopping (particularly Mexico). The double standard that players from most South American and Western Mediterranean European teams display makes me hate them with a burning passion.
But, lets be honest, it's not just the players. The officials reward the behavior, which is the real problem. I think the officiating, at least on the field, has been much better in this tournament than in past tournaments. It seems pretty clear that the refs have been given a directive to not call every foul. I think that's a good thing. If the players aren't getting the calls they'll stop going down so easily. It's conditioning.
VAR is a mixed bag. Part of the beauty of the game is the human error element. Of the players AND the officials. VAR is taking that element out of the game, which I think does more harm than good. You can't have historic moments like "the hand of God" with VAR. With VAR Diego Maradona doesn't score that goal. Without scoring that goal Argentina may not win that game and go on to win the World Cup. The entire trajectory of that match would be totally different with VAR. I don't think the added technology adds anything to the game. I think it makes the games a little more stale. The offsides calls, in this tournament, have been a good example of how I think VAR is taking away from the beauty of the game. I think the calls should be up to the officials, not technology. And sometimes the officials are going to get it wrong. That's okay. They'll get it wrong both ways so in the end its kind of a wash. I'd prefer that to the robotically consistent and overly precise calls where someone's small toe can be just offsides enough to deny a goal. The tournament would be more fun with more goals, and we'd get more goals with humans making the call on offsides.
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In my experience there are many Americans that do not know any of the rules except they see the flopping and it gathers a visceral response of disgust.
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There is definitely diving in soccer. And embellishments as well. But something else Americans don't understand, if they haven't played the game, is that stuff that doesn't look that big a deal on camera hurts like hell in real life.
Studs to the top of the foot, even if it appears to be a glancing blow, really does hurt
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Yeah, I'm aware which is why I put weight on the fact that our guy had that kind of contact with the studs on the BH guy and influenced the path of his foot on the way down. I had a multi faceted injury to connective tissue in my foot from that type of studs to the top of the foot type injury when I was in middle school.
I played soccer for 11 years from age of 7. That was when I took up rugby for about the next 15.
As a teenager I had a job of lining the fields for the rec league in the county every Saturday in the fall for 3 years.
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Only organized sport I ever played was track and field; the injury I remember most was one I was on the 'inflicting' end of. In a practice, I was coming into the handoff zone in a relay and the outgoing runner was too slow starting his run so as I caught up to hand off the baton, my lead foot caught his trail foot with my 1/2" track spike. It ripped a gash in the side of his foot and was a fraction of an inch from snapping his Achilles tendon. I felt horrible about it but technically it was his fault cause its the outgoing runner's job to match the pace of the incoming one to ensure he cleanest and fastest handoff.
(PS the other thing I remember is watching shot put competitors warming up and some idiot walking across the landing area and catching a 16 lb shot to his sternum. Turned out OK but could've killed him if it had hit just wrong. Just goes to show that even 'non-contact' sports can be dangerous!)
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True. I think I understand the offsides rule, but it also goes counter to everything ingrained in me. Playing pickup American football or basketball, you could never let your man beat you further down the field or court. It's a big no no, so when it happens in soccer and they call it offsides it feels like they are rewarding the defense for being terrible.
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To be offsides, you must be behind the last non-goalie defender and the ball before the pass is made.
Perfectly fine to beat the defender to the ball after the pass is made as long as you started from on sides.
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The offsides rule doesnt have anything to do with the goalie. You have to be behind the last 2 opposing players when a forward pass is made. One of the 2 is usually the goalie, but it doesnt have to be.
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Could be they taught it wrong back in in 1971. I specifically remember the guy that escaped from Hungary that started the sport in Harford County.
Either way, your description is they way they play it now.Most people do not know that is the rule.
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Colombia is among the worst offenders of this too. The way they roll around in agony and then you review the tape in slow motion and they never even got touched. Drives me nuts. Late in the Ghana game one of their players shoved Semenyo and then fell down and rolled 7 times clutching his mouth like he just had 3 teeth knocked out. Ridiculous. I hate Colombia. I don't think Switzerland will beat them but by God I hope they do.
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Agreed on all fronts from both posts. I am from a soccer family and truly love the beauty and art that is soccer.
I also feel the flopping is not as bad in this WC. To the point, that I have been able to watch a good amount of games end to end. To your point, the refs can "control" the game and reduce the flop frequency. It's clear they are letting them play and the flopping has diminished to a degree simply due to the ref ignoring the BS of it all.
I hope this trend continues as I would like to watch more men's soccer.
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That red card really infuriated a lot of people because B&H was getting away with murder for most of the game. There should have been at least 2-3 yellows if not a red called against them in the first half alone. The ref mis-used VAR to call a penalty and then tried to get control way to late in the game by calling fouls and yellow cards.
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I've seen Internet sleuths claiming the referee from last night was recently involved in a match fixing and "irregular carding" situation where he was forced to testify. If that is true, why the hell is he officiating the biggest stage in the sport?
Also VAR protocol states you cannot use slow motion for anything other than "facts". So good goal/no goal, out of bounds, hand balls, etc. The fact they used stills and slo-mo to assess severity is garage.
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Feels like lots of folks talking about the offsides rule that didn't play the game. The rule is fine and does what it is intended to do. VAR is finally taking away the whole ref blew it out of the game which is a relief. The system is working perfectly to me.
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Agreed. The old system had judgement calls take away legit goals. The new system is the equivalent of letting a defense return a fumble whoch may be called back later as an incomplete pass.
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Yes. But I think Belgium is a better match up for the US than Senegal would have been. I like the US chance to advance better against Belgium than Senegal. Plus Belgium have been super lucky to get to where they are. If I remember correctly they needed a late winner in their third group stage to even advance out the group at all. Their luck has to run out eventually. Why not against US?
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The guessing wrong and letting them dink it the other way repeatedly was rough to watch. At what point do you accept you arent stopping a missile in the corner anyway and just react to protect the middle 75% of the goal. This would also put pressure on the kickers to beat you around the edges and go off target.
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The thing I've noticed is that whether the wind hits someone too hard or they tear their ACL, there is only a 5% difference in severity of the reaction.
People obviously get fouled or hurt but the flopping by the few makes you think everyone is exaggerating.
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And the "few" who flop and exaggerate are predominately from south American countries or Spain /Portugal /Italy which is why, of all teams, those are the ones that I most despise. Especially Colombia and Mexico.
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On the one hand, it should never have been a red card. But on the other hand, I'm not sure I like a country's government lobbying to bend the rules. It just doesn't look good.
Oh well. He's playing. GO USA!
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When everyone was zooming in on the 0.1 seconds before the step, they kept forgetting that balogan got fouled from behind and was stumbling off-balance... Which is why the ref initially let the us play with advantage due to the foul on the defender
FIFA suspending Balogun's red card so he can play for the USMNT tomorrow is the kind of FIFA corruption that used to only happen for the rest of the soccer world.The USA has finally made it to the big leagues.— Jon Tweets Sports (@jontweetssports) July 5, 2026
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I have mixed feelings. I don't think the red card was the right call originally. I'm happy that Balogun will be available for the Belgium game. But I'm worried Belgium will play pissed off. Justifiably so.
And I really don't like the precedent. Suppose Mbappe gets a red card against Morocco and then that card is suspended so he can play in the semifinal. Imagine the outrage. Not a fan.
It would have been a better story for the US to beat Belgium without Balogun and go into the quarterfinal with him back in the lineup. I'd rather the US be the team that has a reason to play fired up rather than Belgium. This decision may end up doing us more harm than good tbh.
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I think everyone but Belgium will be quiet...
-Just incase they need the same treatment. (These refs are on their second or third game of the tournament...after HOW many games? No inconsistencies there...)
-To not poke the FIFA bear...and avoid getting some bad calls against them durting the remainder of the tourney.
-If you dont have anything nice to say...
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I feel like this a "multiple things can be true" moment.
the idea of teams where a player flings themselves to the ground holding their face after getting bumped in the hip crying about "sports integrity" is laughable
if the card was not a great call and there needs to be some kind of review process, create one for the next world cup, not halfway through the tournament
the commentators have been saying "win at any cost" in every game I've seen so far. Maybe turn down that nonsense if people actually care about sportsmanship
political leaders should generally stay out of sports governance
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I really despise these articles calling it horrible for soccer and showing bias. The refs have been playing fast and loose in almost every game. That said, it was looking bad for FIFA when articles were coming out about how bad the visual reviews have been and just how many decisions they have gotten wrong.
The Balogun play was specifically brought up up as VIR is not supposed to be used in that manner and if it is being used in that manner than how is MESSI getting away with the same thing in basically every game.
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I don't see this as shady dealings. To me, this is a problem created by VAR and adding more officials to each match. We already had the referee, two assistants, and the fourth official in the bench area. Now there are three additional officials in a booth that have dozens of camera angles at their disposal with the ability to watch replays. There is also the covering the mouth rule, which is a brand new rule starting with this tournament, that has resulted in two red cards.
More officials plus more cameras plus expanded red card offenses means more red cards.
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Geeze that all would do it. I just looked up the mouth covering rule as well. Its pretty sad that even needs to be a rule. Increased exposure to way more games is probably also why I think there are way more red cards.
This seems like a good example of it being impossible to officiate and automate human error out of the game. That just seems like way too much
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Holy shit on that last ball that juuuuuuuust went wide. Would have been a devastating own goal. Hell of an effort by England hanging on to that being down a man for 30+mins against Mexico in Azteca
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I think it was 50+ minutes a man down counting the 11 minutes of extra time. 11 minutes!. Norway might be able to walk through the next game after England wracked up 4 yellows and a red in that game.
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The hard minutes at altitude are definitely a valid concern for England. However, outside of Haaland and Odegaard I don't think anyone else on Norway's roster would crack England's starting XI. It'll be an interesting one - Haaland is obviously a huge weapon and can single handedly change a game but I think outside of him being a wild-card factor, that game is England's to lose.
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I think that the WH stepping in and asking FIFA to change the red card is being blown out of proportion. I honestly do not think the WH making a comment is what made the change happen. I think it is more about the optics that were out there from media outlets around the world. FIFA did not want to have this hanging over their heads if the US lost to Belgium without Flo. In fact, by changing it, if the US still loses to Belgium, FIFA wins in a sense, because outside of the US, nobody else really wants to see us succeed. And losing AFTER getting Flo doubles the embarrassment for the USMNT.
If you don't really follow the game on an international level, hearing that a government entity outside of a soccer federation stepping in to air their grievances to FIFA directly, might seem odd and out of line. It isn't. It happens all the time. It seems bigger now because during a WC cycle, more people are watching and reading about it than happens on a day to day basis. At the end of the day, FIFA made the correct decision to rescind the card, and are able to justify it using their own rules.
Enjoy the world cup for what it is and its imperfections. If this is your first taste of international soccer, welcome to the madhouse. If you thought the stuff the NCAA does and doesn't do it crazy, welcome to the big leagues!
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I think this is one of the tiny things is emblematic of why it's tough for the American fan to grasp FIFA/international soccer.
IMO, culturally, Americans don't like ambiguity. We are a low context culture. I think that's one of the quieter appeals of American football - everything can be measured - your X yards away, there's Y seconds on the clock, we zoom in to see if any part of your foot touches the ground, certain penalties have exactly a 10 second run off, we go through so. much. detail. defining what a catch is, etc.
So the idea that FIFA would just reversed the decision with no explanation, and there's no need to be transparent, is wild.
FIFA: "oh yea that was wrong, we changed our mind"
American: "Cool! Why?"
FIFA: "We just changed our mind!"
American: "... what made you change your mind?"
FIFA: "We just did"
American: "Was it something in the replay?"
FIFA: "I dunno, we just thought this would be good"
American: "...Why did you think it would be good?"
FIFA: "I dunno, we just did"
American: "..."
FIFA: "..."
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outside of the US, nobody else really wants to see us succeed.
I don't necessarily believe this to be true. Now, there may be a lot of people outside the US who don't think we will succeed. But not thinking it can happen is much different from not wanting it to.
I just don't buy into the "us against the world" narrative. Frankly, I think a lot of the world would like to see the US win it. Especially if they are in the final against, say, England.
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I will admit when I had my first wow the refs are biased against the US it was because I expected them to be calling the games close (and at the time I was watching primarily the US games). But as I have watched more of the games, instead of calling the games close to keep the players under control, it is the wild west out there in most of the games. Players are getting away with no calls on what would normally be a penalty kick, or even a yellow card most of the time. For stars like Messi, they are literally getting away with anything.
That said, it still seems like the refs have bias in a lot of the games. I don't know how much that is being influenced by some of the floppers.
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Seems to me (and I don't profess that much expertise in World Cup games, though I've watched a few) that it's a lot like the NCAA, where the favorites get a lot of benefit of the doubt.
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Not just the NCAA. It's like that in all the pro leagues to varying degrees. Certain stars can never travel or looking at them too had is a roughing the passer or they are allowed to push off but no one else is or they fling themselves to the ground and are rewarded while others are ignored, or they get extra time added back after it clearly expired, etc.
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FIFA was in a weird place and it should have been fully rescinded but then they would have had to admit that the VAR was misused and it should never have been issued.
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Meh, not in a weird place if they uphold the card. Was it a close call, yeah. Have there been other situations that were worse that weren't called, yeah...but that's every weekend in soccer/football/basketball.
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I think they were in a weird place. The red card was for dangerous play, the misuse of the VR system helped to lead to what could be argued was a bad call AND, if replay had been used properly, the red card perhaps could go to the other player.
This is a compromise adjudication.
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At first as I read this, I was thinking "who in the world is more corrupt than FIFA!?!?" and then I finished reading and got a good laugh. Thanks for that.
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Comments
LET'S GOOOO!!!
U.S.A.!!!! (and HOKIES!)
.
I love that Zlatan is involved in the commentary. That should be entertaining. I'm excited to see how the USMNT does after they acquitted themselves fairly well against Germany. Alternatively, this might be a disappointing tournament for Germany. They'll be expected to win their group, I think, but they aren't looking as strong as they have been historically. I'm cautiously optimistic about the squad Tuchel has set up for England. They look balanced and in a departure from previous regimes he's selected players that fit profiles rather than just trying to cram all of the most talented players onto the pitch at the same time. That could bode well for them. We shall see. Gonna be a fun tournament!!
I completed a bracket this morning where I somehow ended up with England as World Cup champions, so I feel you on your optimism there.
where did you complete a bracket?
that sounds fun
My brother set up a group for our family through the FIFA website. There are two types, one is simple (pick teams in each group - no scores needed). The other a little more in depth, guessing each game score.
woof - guessing each score is intense
Need a 2010 repeat in this first game. Can't have el tri getting three points.
Zlatan can score three goals only touching the ball twice.
The Chuck Norris of futbol
That first goal is on the RSA keeper.
could be. Bad first touch by that defender he passed it to in the middle is what set it up.
South Africa does not look good
They are the equivalent of the CAA champion in the NCAA basketball tournament.
Here I am hoping for a draw
Not looking likely now. That was an awful mistake by South Africa. They will not advance out of the group
I mean, I know they're not technically out, but losing 2-0 with a yellow card and two reds has to make it EXTREMELY unlikely that South Africa will advance from the group. That loss might actually be the earliest a team has ever effectively been eliminated from a tournament. The way they played today, I just don't see them getting enough points to secure the 3rd place slot. Even if they do, those two reds are going to hurt them when it comes time to evaluate which 8 of 12 the 3rd place teams advance.
Expansion was a money grab and this is what we will get from it. But, I think it can also help grow the game and maybe then countries will get better and the tournament can be more competitive outside of the European and South American teams.
They had the worst odds in Group A to get out of it before the game. Very few people had hopes they would advance. But the sure as heck didnt help themselves at all w the reds.
8 of the 12 3rd place teams will advance out of group. There will be some slaughter games 5-0 or so where those teams have zero shot of advancing.
So were they out there wild'n today or are the refs gonna call this Cup tight? 3 red cards is crazy
VAR accounted for one. With VAR we could see more. The other 2 could have gone either way. But they were also straight reds so it could be they plan to call it tighter.
Pretty crazy the first day has a game at 2pm and another at 10pm
There have been some really hilarious social media articles on European Fans enjoying their travels across the USA. Find some, they are great and ... appreciate what you have.
I'm in Houston, and yesterday was out watching early games at an ice house. Couple obvious Germans come in and get a bucket of Bud Lights. My stepdad and his friends insisted that we could not let that stand. Bought them a bucket of actual beer and then chatted and gave recommendations for how to get to/from game and where to get beers after.
Then today at the game, just chatting with people, they are having the times of their life. In HOUSTON.
Feel for those who couldnt stay up for the South Korea game that was miles better than the bland and bleak Mexico game. I guess it's one of the perks of new born midnight feeds is I'll get to see all the odd midnight games
Fell asleep around the 50 minute mark. Woke up devastated that I missed it. Watching the highlights now.
I went to bed at the 2nd half hydration break with the game tied at 1. Saw the final this morning. Felt to me like South Korea had control most of the game and were just not capitalizing on their opportunities.
Honestly, both of those teams could give Mexico some trouble. How funny would it be if they knock Mexico down to 3rd and then the red card they got keeps them out of the top 8 3rd place teams?
That South Korea goal is extremely underrated:
A "Chippy Dippy" with curl so it stays inside the post, while duping 3 defenders (including the keeper)! Chef's kiss
Pretty goal, but I take great umbrage with saying "already best goal". By definition, there's a best goal once there's a single goal scored. So there was a best goal well before this one.
And that's my Ted Talk.
"Already the best goal for now" is so silly lol
T'was a good goal. Good ball in to him as well
I really hate that Canada tied. I wanted to see them lose all their group games. Jesse Marsch is horrible.
I hope Chris Richards is 100%. Almiron is one of my favorite Atlanta United players and I have to admit it's exciting to see him at the WC also.
Gooooooooaaaaaalllllllllll
This is the most consistent pressure I've seen from the US lately
BALOGUN
2-0 USA
Where has this version been?
Tillman looks like he is set on all world playing the computer set on rookie.
BALOGUN WITH A BRACE
Twice is nice. Go Flo.
It's this real life?
Best half I've seen the US Men play in a longass time. Seriously can't even recall when they've looked this good. It's been years
3-0 is the best World Cup half ever for the men.
You'd probably have to go back to friendly against some scrub to find something this good. But even then, this is better. They're aggressive and decisive with every move, which is like totally unheard from the USMNT.
Trinidad and Tobago has been one we've smoked like this.
It is like the sucked for the last 2 years to surprise everyone lol
Enter Sandman to start the 2nd half as the USMNT walk out. Enough said.
I do not hate the yellow for diving
I thought that was a really good card. You're four games into the tournament, send a message about diving to deter it from happening the rest of the World Cup.
More important for the US was getting it waived off our guy especially with the third place differential rules this cup that can be determined by card accumulation to separate the 8 third places that get in and then 4 that dont.
(We aren't gonna be in 3rd place....)
I Believe!!!!
Welp. Idk how to explain that.
Really poor showing from Pepi in his time tonight.
Felt like the team just kept hucking it forward and didn't seem to try to play through him. The old "Fuck it, he's up there somewhere"
REYNA
Outside of his right foot. That's nasty at a WC.
"Everyone is better than Gio Reyna until it's time to be Gio Reyna"
4-1 USA final score.
Most goals ever scored by the USA in a World Cup game.
I missed the pulisic explanation. Bad news?
No one knows. Many assuming injury prevention. Poch will address in post game presser.
Precaution after getting clipped on the back of his leg. Not an issue.
Overly cautious with a minor calf injury. Should be good to go next game
My friend put a bunch of free bets from one of the apps on USA over 3.5 total goals, made the last one even sweeter
Fanatics is doing a 100% bonus on various bets each day. Put it on the USMNT straight up last night.
Pretty much the absolute best half of COMPLETE USMNT futbol Ive seen. Said last night to my boys that it reminded me of Spain w the ball control, passing around the umbrella, keeping possession, having patience, but striking w power and numbers. Yeah, the second half had less energy, but I get it. W the buildup to the home soil hosting, everything w it, the pundits questioning, new manager, etc.......let's not expend all of our capital right away. We proved to ourselves and the world we CAN and will do it, right now. Save some for down the road. Poch has big time experience understanding the ebb and flow of energy during stretches. Now let's drop a 4-1 spot on everyone.
Not sure if this has been posted in other threads, but Antonio Freeman's kid is our locked-in starting RCB despite only being 21. Had one or two giveaways that were great, but a very good game otherwise and doesn't look out of place on the world stage.
Absolutely meteoric rise for him over the past 18 months.
Be annoying to everyone by claiming repeatedly that the USMNT is actually a Hokies team. At least that's my plan.
That's the best I think I've ever seen the USMNT play. That one game changed my outlook for the entire tournament. Coming into it I thought the US would advance, likely in 1st or 2nd, and lose in the first knockout. After the way they dominated Paraguay I feel like this US team could go toe to toe with 90% of the teams at this tournament. I actually feel optimistic that the US could have one of their deepest runs ever.
It does beg the question: how much of it is the US quality vs Paraguay maybe being poor? But then I think back to the Mexico South Africa match. South Africa was terrible. Absolutely awful. And Mexico won, as they should. But they didn't look convincing in doing so. That's the difference to me. USMNT looked the part in their win over a lesser team. They beat Paraguay the way you'd expect France or Brazil to. Exciting times! (plus, it was fun to watch. The aggression, the coordinated pressing, the ball movement, the chance creation. These are things I've never seen from the USMNT before)
VT/FSU 2018 vibes? 😬😬😬
Lol, this could be true. I hope it's not. US looked legitimately strong against Paraguay. I guess we'll see how the rest of the group stage goes.
Don't you put that evil on me
Paraguay was the 2nd hardest team to score against during qualifying in CONMEBOL. They only allowed 10 goals through 18 matches played. They had as many qualifying points as Brazil, Colombia, and Uruguay at 28.
Germany exerting their will on offense but their defense looks vulnerable. Will be interesting to see how they fair against more formidable opponents
checks out
The problem on defense was the whole back line being over aggressive in possession and playing way high, and Curacao having some guys that are fast as fuck. There were several points that Neuer was at midfield during open play and I was sure they were gonna gift one.
Also, would've scored 2-3 more if Leroy fucking Sane wasn't still in the lineup for some reason. He's not the guy he was 4 years ago, not that he was a world beater then. Really wish Nagelsmann would stop being so loyal to the geezers, and had brought Said El Mala instead.
All that said, I surprised my parents, first by visiting, second by taking them to the game. Stupid money, but 10/10, once a generation experience. I think Curaçao brought their entire population, and they were hype the whole time. Down 7-1? Who gives a shit, we're just happy to be here. And they were LOUD.
Yeah I was watching with a German buddy from my soccer team and he does not like Sane. I know nothing about him but watching yesterday he definitely squandered several opportunities. He didn't look great
Out of 7 goals, he didn't have a goal or assist...and cost me a parlay.
I can't decide what to take from the Australia v Türkiye match. Oddsmakers still give the US a higher percentage chance to lose or tie vs both teams in the next 2 games than to win.
What you take away is that's 3 points Turkey didn't get, which given their talent can only help us. The goal differential is also huge. Massively increases odds of winning the group.
The other takeaway is that Türkiye will likely be front footed against us since they need the win and won't be settling for the draw. Our defense will need to be sharp and there will be opportunities to strike on the counter attack
Already cringing thinking about Tim Ream trying to slow them down.
Chris Richards ain't scared!
I think Ream was named captain as the locker room leader of the team - which I don't hate at all. I think he got the ceremonial start against Paraguay but I doubt he starts against Turkiye
I think Ream is starting every game - Poch trusts the partnership with Jedi on the left side. And he wants Ream there for his passing range.
I'd play Trusty on the left and trust Richards and Freeman to build out of the back. Freeman hit some decent passes against Paraguay and he can carry the ball into midfield. But I don't think Poch will do it.
It was fun showing the fans from Argentina and Honduras some Texas-style hospitality here in B/CS last Saturday.
I was down IH-45 on Lake Conroe, when the Dutch invaded one of the best locations
They either converted a bus over here, or they shipped a bus over here, either long before the World Cup. Dutch fans are interesting.
some quick googling told me they ship it all over the world for fan events. Which is insane.
Saw a clip of them singing "Take Me Home, Country Roads" on the walk to the stadium this weekend...wild!!!
And they are an interesting bunch.
Seeing Spain struggle to get a goal vs Cape Verde brings me much joy
Was fascinating to watch Spain getting desperate in the last six minutes of regulation. Their whole demeanor shifted markedly.
What a result for Cape Verde; this is why I am grateful for the Germany result, yes they played a lesser side; however, it was a good opportunity to avoid the banana skin that a first game can be.
This WC has been crazy so far. I hope it stays this way.
agreed - love this tournament!
Here's hoping Senegal stuns France today
If the US is hosting the World Cup, why is there a game in Toronto?
The US is one of the 3 nations hosting it.
Shhh.. Don't let him find out about the games in Mexico
Honestly, all I had heard was US hosting. So North America is hosting. That is fine.
Yesterday got off to a disappointing start with France handling Senegal
But my goodness. Messi. Messi. Messi. Oldest player to ever score a hat trick in the world cup. Tied the record for number of world cup goals by an individual. Owns the title of most world cup goals from outside the box. And is 38 years old, playing in his 6th world cup. What a player!
But 7 goals combined from the top 3 projected goal scorers in the tournament made for an exciting highlight filled day.
yeah the Golden Boot race is going to be exciting this go-round, for sure. C. Ronaldo and H. Kane yet to go. Though, I think it's more likely to be Messi or Mbappe than Ronaldo or Kane. I'm HOPING that it turns out to be some random player from a lesser team. Maybe Diomande from Cote d'Ivoire or something, if they make a run to the quarterfinals. If it has to be one of the big name players, I hope it's Kane (as an England fan, of course) or Messi (because it would be historic). I absolutely would hate it if it were Mbappe - I hope France loses in the round of 32. But that's because I hate France. (and, because I hate them and the universe spites me, France will probably win the whole gd tournament)
Mbappe will more than likely get the record at some point. I support Germany (1A, to US 1B), and someone overtaking Klose is a bummer, because I remember the game he got the record. I hate someone like Mbappe getting the record, but the kid is 27, he has at least 2 more world cups in him.
Well, hopefully his world cup is cut short when they play Germany in round of 16
There's a guy that could have a few more games in him this year...
A hat trick is impressive, however, he was gifted the opportunity to play in the 2nd half with the non red card.
wasn't he offsides on the first goal too?
I don't think so, his first and 3rd were from outside the box, the second was a rebound. The VAR review of the offsides is also in play on every goal and called one back from the US.
His first "goal" was ruled offsides. Technically, he put the ball in the net 4 times last night. 3 counted. Still think he should've been red carded though
Ahhh, I turned it on a few minutes late and missed his "first".
XKCD was quick with this one.
I missed the red card controversy. What happened?
Messi made a spikes up tackle from behind which landed on a guy's calf with no play on the ball.
ooof
There are some unhappy Iberians this week.
Man...England....Tuchel masterclass...
I don't care to admit England has a deep roster this World Cup. Guys on their bench would be starting for most other teams.
England finally has elite tactics under Tuchel. For the first time in, well, a really long time. And he's balanced the roster well too, unlike previous tournaments where management just tries to get the biggest stars all on the field at the same time. He went for profiles and balance over star-power. I appreciate that. They looked very tactically sound both defensively and in attack. Croatia is a good squad too. I think Croatia will make a nice little run in the tournament. England have to be one of the top 3 or 4 teams in it at this point.
What are everyone's rooting interests in this tournament?
US, obviously. But what other teams do people support?
Personally, I'm a fan of England (as a British citizen whose family hails from southern England) and I also like most of the African sides (not South Africa) and some of the smaller European sides (Croatia, Czechia, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, Scotland). I tend to root for underdogs (unless it's against US or England). I generally hate most of the south American sides, France, Spain, and Portugal. I shouldn't like Germany, but I just do. I've always liked their style. (On that note, I hate Italy - glad they're not in it - mostly because of their style)
Pre-revolutionary war my family were primarily German immigrants who settled in Pennsylvania. Our claim to fame would be we were the family kicked out for George Washington at Valley Forge. So I guess Germany after the US?
I'm generally rooting for upsets and anyone playing France, Spain, and England (sorry). I'm also pulling for Netherlands and Germany
no hard feelings. I get it, England is easily hate-able. I also like Netherlands. I forgot to mention it, explicitly, but I also hate Mexico. I group them in with "south America" but they're not technically south American so wanted to clarify
At this point, Morocco. Shock the world. Again.
USMNT first.
After that I root for France. I'm Irish so there's no way I can ever root for England, plus the first world cup I ever really watched was in 1998 and I was enthralled with Les Blues.
I hate France. But Zinedine Zidane and Thierry Henry are two fantastic players who were a ton of fun to watch and hard to root against.
I get the hate of England, particularly as you're Irish. I won't hold that against you ;P
I've been to France a few times and if I won the lottery that's where I'll be.
French people are an acquired taste, I get it :)
to be clear, I don't hate THE French*. I hate FRANCE (Les Bleus) the soccer team. I've also been to France a couple times. My uncle used to own a cottage somewhere in the south of France.
*I do hate Parisians, though.
Next to being mostly Irish I'm also Italian. It would make sense for me to root for them but god I hate the way they play.
Which is ironic given that I've been rooting for Virginia Tech Football for 30 years
LOL - VT fandom is a labor of love, ain't it?
USA - go Stars and Stripes
Belgium - born there while U.S. Army dad stationed there
Croatia - mom's side of family from there & killer kit
Germany - dad's side of family from there & lived there for 3 years while U.S. Army dad stationed there
Croatia's jerseys really are chef's kiss.
They've had better kits before but they are good. Croatia often has great kits. Lots of good kits in this WC.
1A. Mother Deutschland
1B. US
This might be TMI, but I was conceived in Germany, so it's a running joke in my family, that my support for them has premise 😂🇩🇪
Rooting for whichever team's fans have the most wholesome time exploring the US. I think Scotland is in the lead so far.
By a mile!
The Scotland fans OWN Boston right now!
When it was reported that multiple bars in Boston were sold out of beer it was pretty funny. Last time I remember that happening somewhere was when Jimmy Buffet played Manassas.
Came here to reply Scotland and their cheeky hijinx
So many great videos out there of this kind of stuff. Personal favorite is the Australian giving a rave review of a Waffle House.
USMNT - Anyone against Mexico - Anyone against Cananada. I think the African teams outside of that.
1. USA
2. Die Mannschaft
3. Whoever is playing Mexico (Goddammit Korea)
4. Whoever is playing Canada
5. Scotland
6. Whoever is playing Ghana
7. Whichever team does not speak a language based in Latin
USMNT obvi #1. Outside of that Spain and Portugal because I'm effectively 25% each by blood (my Portuguese lineage is all through Funchal, Ronaldo's birthplace).
And I absolutely LOVE to hate on England given they invented the sport and come up short every year. The "its coming home" memes bring me so much joy.
:(
From other comments in this thread you seem to take the England hate very well. Sign of a good fan, imo.
I can't help but think about my first world cup experience back in June 1994. Ireland knocked off the favorite Italy 1-0 to open play. I was working in a restaurant called Pancho O'Malley's in Narragansett RI. After the game, the fans came in singing "We are white, we are right, we are f***ing dynamite" while the Italian fans were mourning. Most of us hit the floor for cover and the bartender just called 911.
Predictions for USA vs Australia?
I think US wins 3-1. That likely will be enough to win the group outright, as the first tie-breaker is H2H. It'll depend a bit on the game later tonight between Turkiye and Paraguay. Here's hoping Paraguay wins that one, which would put USA on 6 points with H2H wins over Paraguay and Australia, both of whom would be unable to get more than 6 points.
I had the same score prediction but based on Pulisic somehow being fit to play. I find that Pepi being put in place of Pulisic interesting, I'm just not sure we can create 3 goals against a tall and tough Aussie backline without him. Hoping I am 100% off and we win big haha.
Well shit. Pulisic is out
Goooooaaaaalllllllll!!!!!!!!
Toure's speed is scary. If we keep tight passing with the amount of possession the Aussies allow, we can keep control.
Anyone else think of Olive Garden with they talk about Italiano from Australia?
Gooooaaaaaallllll (defacto Hokie Freeman)
FREEMAN!!! LET'S GO! HOKIES!
Question for the soccer nerds: was that offsides?
Not according to VAR. The defender all the way at bottom of screen, outside the box, had not pushed up the field.
No. He was solidly onside. The other player was off and thankfully freeman boxed him out and the refs didn't consider him to have impacted the play.
Thank you and to LTR2k! That makes sense.
Clean sheet. This game says more about this team than the last. Subs came on and played well. Don't let the score line fool you.
Need Paraguay to win tonight so they can think about sitting some of the yellow card guys so they dont risk a 1 game suspension
The yellow card accumulation is reset before the elimination round. More likely you will see starters based on who needs the rest than based on yellows.
But a second yellow still means a game out. Single yellows are wiped. Two yellows and straight reds in the third game still mean sitting the next game.
Correct so if they accumulate a second yellow in last group game, my understanding is they have to sit out the first elimination game. Frankly its dumb but gives the group winners a slight competitive advantage.
Did what we needed to though things did get a little dicey there in the 2nd half. Could have been just a tad more aggressive looking for another goal instead of being content warding off Australia's attacks. Started getting tired there in the later minutes too. I thought they'd concede a goal, but somehow managed to keep it clean. Sucks about all those cards though. Get a good result tonight from Turkey/Paraguay and just sit anybody on a card.
Messy 2nd half. We were happy not to possess, which has been strong through the first three halves. Aussies pressed hard which made it difficult, but thought we were sloppy coming back to the ball in passes. Clean sheet is great. And AUS never really had great chances in the 2nd half.
Best start to a tournament I've seen from the men in forever.
Quick Paraguay goal. Good for the USA.
USA officially tops their group! 3rd time in history (1930 and 2010).
I'll say it. I don't like the new tie break rules. By putting h2h ahead of gd and gf it makes a lot of the final group stage matches meaningless. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad the US have topped their group and earned the right to play against a 3rd place team in the r32 but it sucks that Türkiye has nothing left to play for bedsides pride and the US has no reason to treat the last game as anything other than a friendly. The Australia Paraguay match will be far more interesting since they will be jockeying for 2nd. But the fact that the Türkiye US game has zero impact on the outcomes in the group is lame. And it won't be the only group like that. There will be a bunch of meaningless final group stage matches, which takes away from some of the magic of the tournament. I hope they realize this was a big mistake and go back to previous rules in future tournaments.
Absolutely hard disagree -- head to head is a way better tiebreaker than goal differential for a format like this because result vs common opponent shouldn't overtake head to head result.
Ecuador and Ivory coast shouldn't come down to "who can beat Curacao by more" for instance, it should be decided by ecuador vs ivory coast
Agreed any 4 team round robin should always be H2H first, especially they expanded the tournament and each group will likely have a worse than typical team.
I get the logic here but I disagree and here's why.
Firstly, with 2 teams advancing out of each group (guaranteed) and a 3rd team advancing from 66% of the groups, "penalizing" teams for "not scoring enough against common opponents" is essentially moot. If you were trying to crown the best team in each group, sure, h2h makes sense. But that's not really the point. You're really trying to weed out the worst teams, not anoint the best ones. That's why you get 2/3 teams from each group advancing. If you wanted only the best team in each group to advance, h2h suddenly makes a lot more sense.
Secondly, If multiple teams could potentially end on the same number of points after the final result of the last match, making the h2h tie-break the first tie-break removes the mystery and intrigue of those last games being played simultaneously. Turkiye is a great example. Because the tie-break is h2h they know that they are eliminated and they have nothing but pride to play for. However, if tie-break was based on goal differential and goals-for instead, then they have something to play for. Granted, it's a long shot, but if they are able to get a win against the US, and one of Paraguay or Australia lose, then it comes down to GD. If Turkiye is able to win by 2 goals and, say Australia loses by a goal or more, then Turkiye jumps them in the table. Sucks for Australia, but that gives Australia something to play for in their third game as well.
Thirdly, this is a tournament for the fans. The fan experience is a lot better when the teams still have everything to play for. Sure, it might be unlikely that Turkiye will win by enough goals and that one of Australia/Paraguay lose by enough goals but the fact that it's possible motivates all of those teams to play their best soccer on the last day of group stage. That's a win for the fans. The US Turkiye game is going to be boring for us now because it's essentially a meaningless friendly for both sides. Neither side gains or loses anything of substance from the game. It shouldn't be that way. Even if a team loses a game they perhaps shouldn't, they shouldn't be eliminated from the tournament before they even play their last game. They should still have something to play for and hope for the best as they find out where the chips fall.
Fourth, the point isn't to get the teams perfectly ranked coming out of each group. Naturally, you'll get the best teams winning their groups, and the worst teams losing their groups, regardless of how many goals are scored or who they are scored against. But the middle teams are where all the fun lies. I actually like this expanded version because it means that a lot of 3rd place teams still advance. But it's not guaranteed, so even though a lot of teams will finish 3rd and advance, every team that has a shot at 2nd in their group is going to be playing for 2nd to remove doubt/chance. It's kind of brilliant. But it works best if every team has something to play for in their last match. In a group where 3 teams could potentially finish on 3 points, you want those teams fighting tooth and nail for every possible chance to get into the 3rd place slot and keep their tournament dreams alive. We're losing that in the case of Turkiye and that's a bad thing for the tournament, IMO.
Also, There are advantages to placing first rather than second in your group. If you have 6 points and there are two other teams with 3 points, you can't just rest on your laurels even if you've beaten those teams. You still need to make sure you get at least a point from the last match to make sure you finish top. It would suck, for example, for the US, if we rested our starters and trotted out our bench warmers in the last game and lose because we know we're through but then Paraguay trounces Australia 3-0 or something and then they draw us on points but have a higher GD so they jump us in the group. Then we're stuck playing another 2nd place team rather than a 3rd place team.
H2h tie-breaks make sense if you're trying to figure out which teams are actually best. But to me, group stage isn't about figuring out which teams are best. Group stage is about weeding out the weakest teams. France lost their first game in group stage but ended up winning the whole tournament. 4 years later, Argentina lost their first game in group stage and then went on to win the whole thing. Group stage isn't about finding the best team. Group stage is about getting the worst teams knocked out and then letting everyone else play for the tittle. The knockouts are about finding the best team. There are no ties in the knockouts.
Group stage tie-breaks should be on GD and GF before H2H because that's the only way to avoid meaningless games. At least 50% of the final stage matches are going to be meaningless because so many teams will already know they are finishing in first place or last place regardless of the final match outcomes. That's going to set up lots of boring ho-hum soccer which sucks for the fans.
If you want it to be about entertainment and not sporting merit, sure.
it IS about entertainment. That IS the point.
Also, sporting merit in this structure works, even with gd/gf being the first tiebreakers over h2h. The best teams are going to advance, every time. You're not going to see France struggle to get out of their group if they're not one of the best teams. The best teams get into the knockouts.
But you need the other matches to count too. If the only games that matter are the ones with the best teams, more than half the tournament has no value. That's why it's important for South Korea to have a chance to win the group by scoring a bunch of goals against South Africa (and hope Mexico get's beat by Czechia). The tournament is entertainment at it's core. It's for the fans. The fans want to see meaningful football matches. That's why h2h as a group-stage tiebreaker doesn't work.
I think the sporting merit aspect is a reward for the best team H2H. It allows them to protect their competitive lineup by not risking an additional yellow card that leads to a suspension in the first game after group stage. Yellow cards reset after group stage.
Second and Third place teams are forced to take the risk to secure a top 2/3rds finish.
The entertainment should be secondary to the sporting merit, and "who can run it up on curacao" shouldn't be more important than winning the other matches.
As an aside, your frustration is actually more with the expanded tournament that needs 3rd place group finishers to advance to round out the knockout field.
If entertainment is your thing, it should either be higher quality of team on average, and you can achieve that by a) weeding out the bottom feeders from the beginning and having fewer better teams or b) changing the qualifying process to bring more teams from the better federations at the expense of the smaller federations. Literally nothing was wrong with a 32 team field
so it seems that where you and I disagree is on your first sentence here. You think the tournament should be about the "sporting merit". I think it should be about "entertainment". If we can't agree on that everything else is moot.
If you want it to be about sporting merit h2h as a tiebreak makes sense. If you want it to be about entertainment, it's preferable to have GD as the first tie-break because that forces some drama in the third match (especially since the third match in every group is a simultaneous match so that none of the teams know the result of the other match to strategize around. It forces the teams to put their best foot forward in every game.
I agree there was nothing wrong with the 32 team format (incidentally, back when it was only 32 teams, the tie-breakers were GD and GF ahead of H2H and nobody complained about it then). I was not sure how I would feel about the expanded tournament. It felt like a money-grab by the corrupt FIFA organization. But as a fan who wants to be entertained by this tournament, I've actually enjoyed having more teams, more matches, more stories, etc. It's been fun. Curacao getting mauled by Germany wasn't exactly fun, but for every one of those games, you get Cabo Verde holding Spain to a 0-0 draw. So that's fun! This is the beautiful game. Part of the beauty of it is the unifying nature it has on people from different nations all over the world. I don't hate that there are more teams in this format. I'm also interested in how the dynamics of 8/12 third place teams getting through affects the last group stage game in each group. You're not necessarily going to know which third place teams are in the top 8 until the last day, which adds some intrigue that I think will be fun.
Overall, I'm very much enjoying this tournament. My complaint about the tie-breakers stands, but it's not a deal breaker for me. I have 0 interest in the USA-Turkiye match because it's completely meaningless. But the Australia-Paraguay match will be plenty dramatic since those teams both have a shot at 2nd place and can't count on 3rd getting them through.
My biggest complaint in this tournament so far has been the absolutely rubbish broadcasting by Fox. Fox clearly doesn't understand the sport and the production, particularly the camera work, has been dreadful. Also, Alexi Lalas and Landan Donovan are complete boobs and I'd rather listen to nails on a chalkboard than either of those dweebs. Outside of that, the soccer thus far has been amazing to watch. I worry that there will be a lull next week as we get into the 3rd group stage matches where most of the groups will probably already be decided (because of the h2h tie-break) but it'll amp back up again in the knock-outs, which is always fun.
TL;DR: Agree to disagree? This is a fun tournament and I love watching it every 4 years. Happy watching and Go USA!!!
Completely agree on Donavan and Lalas. Its like watching Woody and Buzz Lightyear interact, trying to explain physics.
I would be totally here for that.
Gotta bring these back:
My biggest gripe is the commercial breaks
GD/GF makes more sense to me as a tiebreaker when only two teams qualify than if three do, but I'm not sure i can articulate why succinctly.
Yeah, the hydration breaks are dumb.
This is hard for me to wrap my brain around. For 4 of the groups, this is the case. No single 3rd place team is guaranteed so every team has to operate on the assumption that only 2 teams from their group will advance.
But the current format isn't eliminating teams at this point (after two matches) by saying they cannot finish second because of H2H , it's saying they cannot finish third because of H2H.
The clear advantage of GD/GF in a format where two and only two teams wualify from each group is sussing out the three teams that go 2W1L and finish on 6 pts (or 1W 2D and finish on 5)
I am curious how many 2/3 tiebreaks (with a clear #1) would be different if using GD vs h2h. I suspect not many, because it's kind of hard to finish joint second on pts having lost to the team you're tied with short of a shock result somewhere.
That's just it tho. I don't think teams should be completely eliminated after just two matches. The best teams will get the points they need to advance regardless of tie breakers. The problem with the h2h tie break in a 4 team group is that after 2 games, more often than not, you're already going to have a team completely eliminated with no remote shot at saving their campaign. Turkiye is a great example. They're done. In the previous format, even tho they would be most likely effectively eliminated, they still have an outside shot at advancing with a win over the US. That gives them something to play for.
Similarly, Mexico has outright won their group after just two games. South Korea is now only playing for second, with no chance to win the group with some help. In previous WCs South Korea would still have a chance to win the group if they beat South Africa by a couple goals (completely possible) and if Mexico loses to Czechia (also completely possible).
Both groups A and D are basically wrapped up just over a week into the tournament. The third games in each group are going to be basically meaningless as a result. I think that's a shame.
There were times previously when 3rd and 4th place teams were eliminated prior to the last group game...
Sure. That'll happen in any tournament. But for over half of the outright winners and losers to be decided after just two games is insane
Its been that way before. Recency bias on this one. Just exaggerated being on home soil and expanded field w more lower ranked teams. (And doesn't mean that h2h is a bad tie breaker...)
16 extra teams this year...
These are (in general) the ones that benefitted from the expanded field:
Uzbekistan 50
Jordan 63
Iraq 57
Bosnia & Herzegovina 64
Cape Verde 67
Congo 46
Ghana 73
Curacao 82
Haiti 83
New Zealand 85
And that means expanded groups, that are also "watered down." No more true groups of death like we've seen previously.
Uzbekistan - lost their first game
Jordan - lost to Austria, but did score a goal
Iraq - lost to Norway (scored a goal)
Bosnia&Herzegovina - Drew a point from Canada
Cape Verde - 2 points from two games, both against probably the strongest teams in the group (Spain, Uruguay)
Congo - drew a point from Portugal
Ghana - won their first match against Panama
Curacao - got a point from Ecuador and their keeper had an absolute day in the process (15 saves)
Haiti - lost first two matches, have not scored a goal yet
New Zealand - drew a point from Iran before getting pretty well dispatched by Egypt
Overall, these ten teams have acquitted themselves fairly well, considering they "benefitted from the expanded field". 5/10 lost their first match, which I suppose would be expected. The rest of them at least drew against better teams or, in Ghana's case, won a match. I think it's hard to argue that these additional teams have "watered down" the tournament appreciably.
On that note, I do still think there is a group of death. In fact, I think you could argue there are two. I think Group F (Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia) is a very formidable group. Group I is also very strong (France, Norway, Senegal, Iraq). France and Netherlands are among the top teams in the whole tournament. Sweden and Norway both have impressive star power (Gyokeres, Haaland), and most teams form Europe are going to be tough for anyone anyway. Japan is a scrappy and well drilled team, and have been for a couple tournaments now. Ghana is arguably the best team from Africa. Iraq and Tunisia are weaker teams but every group of death has one weak team.
The rankings are watered down. In 2022 the lowest ranked team in Pot 3 was at 35th. in 2026 the highest ranked team in Pot 3 is 29th.
All of this lends itself to the change from goal differential. If you played the lowest ranked team in your last game (when you've already clinched) no need to try to embarrass them with a 7-nil drubbing just because another team beat them 5-nil in their opener. The other 2 teams should be judged head to head. And with the expanded tournament and an extra round to be played in the middle of summer in the US, there should be a chance to rest (as a reward for winning the first 2 group games) to prep for the potential 5 games ahead.
it's clear to me we're never going to agree on the tie-breaker issue, and that is okay. It seems evident that you put more value on "sporting merit" than you do on "entertainment" (which, again, is perfectly okay).
I'm the opposite. I think the World Cup, first and foremost, is an event meant to entertain the fans. There's pageantry, pride, sharing of cultures and customs, wholesome experiences had by foreign fans in the host country(ies), stories about teams, players, coaches, etc. It's a month-long entertainment marathon.
In a purely merit based system, h2h is the most sensible tie-breaker in a round-robin style sporting competition. But for entertainment purposes, it falls short because it is too good of a tie-breaker. It's too cut and dry. It's too cold and calculated. It's 100% the best way to determine which team is objectively better than another. But it allows no wiggle room. There's no space for magic or mysticism. It takes away from the dreams of the teams that have no real shot. It puts an end to the journey before the journey actually ends. Teams need to have something more than pride to play for in their last game. There should be a sliver of a chance to advance, no matter how slim, on the last day of group stage. That's how it's meant to be.
Objectively, I concede that h2h is the most robust tie-breaker. But as a fan who wishes to be entertained by an event I believe is meant to entertain, h2h misses the mark.
At the end of the day, you and I are just fans with different perspectives. We both want to enjoy the tournament in our own ways and I'm sure we both will. I have teams that I'm rooting for. I'm certain you do as well. They're likely not the same and that's also okay. I still hope you enjoy the tournament. I know I will.
I'll only add that a 7-nil game isn't very entertaining...
that's fair. Though, I personally very much enjoyed Germany's 7-1 drubbing of Brazil in 2014
True dat!!!! (that was in the knockouts (semis). ;-))
indeed. Still, it was 7-0 until the 90th min consolation goal by Oscar.
I think that's something we can ALL agree on.
I really enjoyed the back and forth you guys had, and tbh i still don't know where i stand on which method i prefer.
I will ask, as only a casual soccer fan, do we know why they changed the tiebreaker for this world cup?
Because 3rd place teams (8 of the 12) will advance. This makes the last games matter for more teams than previously for seeding. Before some teams could sleep-walk thru the 3rd game if already qualified or eliminated. With a greater opportunity to advance, they made it about the result on the pitch.
Here's where I completely disagree. And, I hope you're right, and I guess we'll see, but I think the opposite is true.
Case in point - Turkiye. Because of the h2h tiebreak rule, they are completely eliminated after two games. They have 0 points and sit squarely at the bottom of group D. However, they have one more game to play. If not for having already been eliminated, they could conceivably sneak into 3rd place by beating the US IF Australia beats Paraguay by 2 goals. Now, the first part of that equation is unlikely (unless the US rests players since they are thru, regardless) but the second part is very possible. Turkiye could play their best game of the tournament against the US, win 2-0 and watch Paraguay lose to Australia 3-1 and all of a sudden they are in 3rd place with 3 points and an outside shot at advancing. But with the h2h rule, they are completely eliminated, regardless of outcomes. They have no way of jumping either Australia or Ecuador on GD/GF because they have lost both of those matches h2h. In all likelihood, the US, Mexico, Germany, Argentina, Colombia and England will all have wrapped up their groups by the end of game 2. All of those teams are likely to rest players in their final match. Great for them. Unfair for the other teams in the group that have to play for 3rd.
This is a data point of one, though. Of the twelve pools, how many already have the last team eliminated?
Since they are eliminated, even if they won 12-0 they wouldn't qualify. They are done. No tie-breaker would get them into the knock-outs. They would have been eliminated under the previous tie-breaker rules as well.
Mexico beat South Korea. If Mexico loses the last match and SK wins, Mexico should win the group. (3 goals in hand)
US beat Australia. Ditto. (5 goals in hand)
Germany beat Ivory Coast. Ditto. (7 goals in hand)
Argentina beat Austria. Ditto. (5 goals in hand)
Other to be determined....
Yeah, the head to head already determined the winner of those group, but do we think anything would be different with them if goal differential were the determining factor? You think it would change any of this in 5 days?
If you assume those that have wrapped up their group would go on and win the 3rd match, it's a moot point. But does show that the field is watered down to some extent with those goal differentials. There were more opportunities to win matches against lower ranked opponents. Some ties and a few wins by the underdog, but not enough to tip the scales. I mean we're headed into a knock-out tournament with the same number of teams that were in the entire thing 4 years ago. Point being, the tie breaker isn't going to make much of any difference except maybe 1 or 2 2nd/3rd place finishers. And both will be moving on.
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False. Under previous rules, if they beat the US 12-0 and either Paraguay or Australia lose they would be even on points with the loser of the Paraguay Australia game and would jump ahead of them on gd (having scored 12). That would place them in 3rd with a chance to advance.
That's kind of my point. If the tie break rules hadn't changed they'd still have something to play for (third). But with h2h they don't have anything to play for. Australia and Paraguay could draw, which would eliminate Tukiye regardless of their result. But that puts Australia in jeopardy because they finish third and aren't guaranteed to advance. So Australia may want to play for the win. Paraguay would be happy to draw because they'll stay ahead on gd. Does Australia push and try to win, exposing themselves to counterattack or do they play for the draw and hope for the best?
Also, I think you're completely missing my point. I know that Türkiye is effectively eliminated. Many of the weaker teams are. My complaint isn't that weak teams aren't getting into the knockouts. My complaint is that half of the 3rd group stage matches are meaningless. It's better for the fans when teams still have stakes in the games. Mexico should be worried that SK could jump them. I want the teams that have already won their groups to still play their best soccer. We only get this once every 4 years. I don't want to see friendlies.
According to google:
UEFA Championship format is a lot different so it's a weird reason to cite. In UEFA the groups are bigger and the round-robin format is closer to league play, where each team plays each of their opponents twice, once on the road, once at home.
I'm not sure how changing the tie-break rules "better handles the expanded 48-team format." That part is, obviously, debatable. The only part of this tournament that is substantially different (aside from the number of teams) is that now you have 2/3 of the third place teams also advancing. But h2h doesn't really come into play when ranking those top 8 3rd place teams since none of them play each other. It's kind of a meaningless metric for the only real change to the tournament format from previous versions.
This new format hasn't stopped Germany (7-1) or Netherlands (5-1) from blowing out their opponents. I think 1) the idea that the gd/gf format incentivizes teams to blow out weaker opponents is way overblown and 2) nothing about the tie-break rule is going to change whether or not teams blow out weaker opponents (see Germany v. Curacao)
The only incentive that changes with the new rule is that now teams can win their group in 2 matches and use the 3rd match to rest players. Sure, that's an advantage and reward to the strongest performing teams as they prepare for the grueling knock-outs - but it ultimately results in a lesser product for the fans. That third, meaningless game now has no bearing on the outcome of the group. If you love the drama and pageantry of the World Cup, as I do, you're losing a lot of that now. The 3rd match in every group is actually two matches that happen simultaneously so that non of the teams know what's going on in the other game. It heightens the pomp and circumstance of the whole group. The first two matches are the crescendo that erupts to a climax on the final day, where a number of possible score lines in the two games could result in various different group outcomes where teams land in different spots. It forces the teams to play their best soccer in all 3 matches. That is lost with the h2h tie-break rule. Good for the US (And Mexico, and Germany, and Argentina) who have locked up a spot in the r32 already (and will likely also be the case for Colombia and England if they both win their second match). What that means, though, is that the last group stage game is going to be meaningless for half of the tournament field and that's a real shame for the viewer.
Yeah i agree that none of those reasons presented are very convincing.
I have doubts that many fans were like "oh boo i don't like the world cup because teams run up the score since goal differential is so important. i'd totally watch more games if there was less running up the score"
A) the best teams in the world are playing. I get that with the expanded field now there are worse teams getting in. but this isn't like bama playing Kennesaw state
B) i don't feel like blowouts happened all that much before? If anything i feel like people enjoy seeing more goals but maybe that's just my American casual soccer fandom showing.
C) goal differential does still matter so I doubt teams are really approaching it that differently than before. It's not like it's been completely eliminated as a tiebreaker
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Sports were created to be entertainment. That is their goal to placate the masses so they don't overthrow governments. Who is the best doesnt matter as long as you have some one to cheer for.
We are also talking about FIFA here, one of the most corrupt organizations alongside the IOC. This is about money and kickbacks. They would rig every contest if they thought it would bring them more money.
Wow, TLDR! Is someone paying you by the word? ;)
But, what if...and hear me out. This is going to be a long post.
Mayonnaise.
This is where I started to jump in and say, "one of them will lose," until I realized that this is soccer, and
tiesdraws are possible. One of the reasons why I find it hard to get into this sport (and hockey).Soccer would benefit from using Hockeys penalty box system rather than just free kicks
hard disagree. I love soccer and I love hockey and both sports are perfect in their own ways. They don't need to borrow anything from one-another.
at the world cup, every team does eventually lose, at some point. Except the Champion. Although, in the last two tournaments at least (and likely others, I don't have time to look now) the eventual winner did lose a group stage match. Draws add a dimension to the sport that I think is interesting. Psychologically, a draw can be a win or a loss, depending on your perspective. Take the Cabo Verde draw vs Spain. For Spain and their fans, that felt like a loss. For Cabo Verde, that was a massive win. Ultimately, each team gets a point from it. For Cabo Verde, that's a point they were very unlikely to ever get. For Spain, that's two dropped points they feel they should have had. And now, it's set up a very important match between Spain and Uruguay in the final group stage game. Spain have to win or draw Uruguay to win the group. If they lose, Uruguay will pass them on points. Funny enough, if Cabo Verde manages to win against Saudi Arabia AND Uruguay manages to beat Spain, that could drop Spain down to 3rd in their group. That sort of drama can't exist without the feature of the draw. It's beautiful.
Counterpoint: In the previous 32-team editions, there were still matches on the last day of the group stage that didn't matter because only the top 2 teams advanced in a group.
I'm always going to believe H2H results reign supreme and especially as a tiebreaker where you're playing common opponents.
Now I wish we had used the other thread where pre-tournament predictions were made. How many teams have underperformed so far because FIFA and pundits propped them up to dominate like always? I work for a company out of Belgium and we have a very large pool going on the games. I said there as I did on TKP teams were going to surprise, good and bad. Yes, it is hardest to play your way in through Europe, based on the sheer number of countries alone and talent levels. But over the last 10 years more and more players have been playing in the top European leagues from outside Europe at younger ages and it is showing in the results. I also think to many teams came in unprepared. Not just for the travel and weather here, but also thinking their groups were easy and they would get out their groups easily. I'm not saying that some random country ranked outside the top 30 will win the WC this cycle, but I think the matchups next round will be very interesting and won't be riddled with the usual suspects.
Granted, a few 3rd group stage games have been played...
But South Africa has been a shocker in a good way so far. Ranked 60th and last in group, finishing second.
Bosnia and Herzegovina sliding into third in their group is a punching-above-their-weight result.
The United States showing up in the manner they have has been a pleasant surprise.
Egypt leading their group thru 2 games, with Iran and Belgium is an uptick. Only team with a W in their group.
Argentina...while the defending champs, look amazing, again.
-Ecuador only getting 1 point from Curacao and Ivory Coast, now having to face Germany has to be disappointing. And they were unbeaten in 19 matches leading up to the start of the World Cup.
-Belgium Winless thru 2, being ranked #9 in the world, huge let down.
-Senegal winless thru 2. Granted the 2 losses were against Haaland and Mbappe, but you have to get a point!
-Portugal has to be disappointed. A draw against Congo. WC nerves? Too much hub bub around CR7?
-England, doing England things. Looks like worlds best in game 1. Looks like their name is Jeff in game 2.
-Spain laying an egg in their first game was something...
To me, the best part has been the games where one team simply dominated, but walked with a single point. AND, the same day show of Messi/Mbappe/Haaland....chef's kiss.
I think the biggest disappointment so far is Portugal!
Seconded by Senegal and Uruguay.
I for one am write pleased with the performances of both Portugal and Italy
Uruguay vs Cape Verde has been very entertaining
Pretty good game. If Cape Verde beat KSA and Uruguay beat Spain, Spain would finish 3rd in that group. If they win and Spain wins, they finish 2nd. Crazy group.
CVI would need to win by a larger margin than Uruguay. They are currently behind on yellow cards.
all big IFs, but if Spain loses and CVI wins cards won't matter because CVI would be on 5 points along with Uruguay and they'd be top 2 (cards may come into play on which of those two is first) but Spain would still finish 3rd on points (which was the original assertion). Cards are irrelevant when it comes to Spain losing and CVI winning to put Spain in 3rd.
Well Game three should mean something for Group I. Norway and France both have two wins.
yes, despite my complaints about the tie-breakers, there are still a lot of groups that have important 3rd matches upcoming. Groups B, F, G, H, and I will be exciting to follow.
Group B:
Canada and Switzerland play each other, even on points. If they play for the draw they both advance, with Canada topping the group on GD. However, if either of them win, the loser could be at risk of falling to 3rd depending on the result of the BIV-QAT match. BIV and QAT both have a point each and could secure a 2nd or 3rd place spot in the group with a win. Lots to play for in the BIV-QAT match. A little less to play for in the CAN-SUI match but neither team wants to lose that one and risk falling as far as 3rd.
Group F:
Japan v Sweden is going to be a great match. It's kind of a winner takes all match. 1 point separates them but Japan will want the win to vie for the top spot in the group. Sweden could win the match and catapult themselves to the top of the group if the Netherlands draw Tunisia. Lots to play for there. Netherlands has Tunisia, but I expect they will control that one fairly easily. They will want to win it to secure the top spot in the group, but a draw will be enough to get through to the knock-outs. If Tunisia is able to eek out a win (very unlikely IMO) the Netherlands would drop to 2nd in the group. They'd still advance, of course, but would prefer to top the group.
Group G:
Egypt face off with Iran. Iran needs a result to stay in the top 3. Egypt likely will top the group with a draw but a loss could see them slip as far as 3rd depending on the Belgium-NZ result. Belgium badly needs to win against New Zealand as they currently sit in 3rd and will want to secure a spot in the top two. It's potentially win or go home for them. A draw gets them to 3 points, which just might be enough to advance as one of the top 8 3rd place teams.
Group H:
Cabo Verde and Uruguay each have just 2 points. Cabo Verde plays Saudi Arabia and Uruguay face off with Spain. A draw isn't a good enough result for either, as there is potential that the other could win their tie and push them down into 3rd. Again, same story as group G, 3 points in 3rd place might be enough to get through, but it's not a comfortable place to be. I expect Uruguay will be pushing for a win vs Spain because Cabo Verde, having secured draws against the strongest teams in the group, could realistically get a win vs Saudi Arabia. Spain will be happy with a draw but a loss could be catastrophic for them. If Uruguay and Cabo Verde both win, they will each jump Spain on points, pushing Spain into 3rd. Though, being in 3rd with 4 points is a much safer bet for advancing than being in 3rd on 3. Still, Spain won't want to fall to 3rd and be faced with the prospect of a r32 bout with a strong group winner. Uruguay are currently in 2nd but could fall to 3rd with a loss to Spain, which could put them out of the tournament altogether as 2 points may not be enough to be in the top 8 3rd place teams. Interesting group, this.
Group I:
Obviously, France and Norway face off in a Winner-Takes-All match. If they draw, France will top the group on GD and Norway will finish in the second spot and advance as well. Should one win, the loser will still advance, as the other two teams in the group are on 0 points each and cannot catch up. Now, on the other side of the group. Senegal and Iraq each need to win to keep their hopes alive. 3 points might be enough to finish top 8 of 3rd place teams but 1 point certainly won't be good enough. A draw won't do for either side, so I expect each team will be out fighting for an outright win. Even with a win, nothing is guaranteed for either team. 3 points, I think, is proving to be a tricky place to be for 3rd place teams. Could come down to discipline metrics if enough teams finish with 3 points.
We'll learn a little more today about Groups K and L, but I suspect England and Croatia will win, setting up an important tie between Croatia and Ghana in the third match. Colombia will likely beat Congo, securing a position in the top 2. Portugal need to get a win vs Uzbekistan to set up a big time match between Colombia and Portugal to finish the group. In all likelihood, that will be like the France/Norway match where the winner will top the group but the loser will still advance in 2nd. Congo could secure a 3rd place spot with 4 points if they beat Uzbekistan on the last day.
Most of the other groups are pretty much already settled.
FYI, it took me more than the 5m35s delta time to type mine. Great minds think alike, huh?
in my haste, I missed group C. That one is interesting too.
Brazil and Morocco are tied at 4 points each. Scotland has 3. As you mentioned below, Haiti is eliminated. But there's still a lot to play for among the other three teams. Scotland has the most to gain, as they could top the group with a win over Brazil (very unlikely, but that's what I'll be rooting for, for sure). Morocco will need at least a draw to make sure they finish top 2, but I'm sure they will expect to win against an overmatch Haitian team. Brazil will certainly get through with just a draw but they will want to top the group so will likely try to win. A loss, similarly to Spain, would be pretty catastrophic as it could send them down to 3rd if Morocco also win. But with 4 points, they likely would still advance. Just not where they'd want to be.
The elite crew put on another show yesterday with 6 goals between Messi, Mbappe, and Haaland. They all have above a 9 rating on FotMob for the tournament so far. Enjoy it!
So I decided to look into the "meaningless games" concern. Looks like I did this one day too early, as two groups play their second round of matches today, but oh well.
Group A:
Mexico 6, South Korea 3, Czech Republic 1, South Africa 1
Mexico Advances, none Eliminated
Remaining matches:
1v2, 3v41v3, 2v4Group B:
Canada 4, Switzerland 4, Bosnia/Herzegovina 1, Qatar 1
none Advance, none Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v2, 3v4
Group C:
Brazil 4, Morocco 4, Scotland 3, Haiti 0
none Advance, Haiti Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v3, 2v4
Group D:
United States 6, Australia 3, Paraguay 3, Turkey 0
United States Advances, Turkey Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v4, 2v3
Group E:
Germany 6, Ivory Coast 3, Ecuador 1, Curacao 1
Germany Advances, none Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v3, 2v4
Group F:
Netherlands 4, Japan 4, Sweden 3, Tunisia 0
none Advance, Tunisia Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v4, 2v3
Group G:
Egypt 4, Iran 2, Belgium 2, New Zealand 1
none Advance, none Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v2, 3v4
Group H:
Spain 4, Uruguay 2, Cape Verde 2, Saudi Arabia 1
none Advance, none Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v2, 3v4
Group I:
France 6, Norway 6, Senegal 0, Iraq 0
France and Norway Advance, none Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v2, 3v4
Group J:
Argentina 6, Austria 3, Algeria 3, Jordan 0
Argentina Advance, Jordan Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v4, 2v3
Group K:
Colombia 6, Portugal 4, DR Congo 1, Uzbekistan 0
Colombia Advances, none Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v2, 3v4
Group L:
England 4, Ghana 4, Croatia 3, Panama 0,
none Advance, Panama Eliminated
Remaining matches: 1v4, 2v3
Of the ten groups thatNow that all twelve groups have completed two rounds of matches,sixseven teamsthathave already advanced (Mexico, USA, Germany, France, Norway, Argentina, Colombia) andfourfivethathave been eliminated (Haiti, Turkey, Tunisia, Jordan, Panama). Of thesixseven that have advanced, four of them (Germany, USA, Mexico, Argentina) have been placed on the Knockout Bracket, so it seems that France and Norway still have seeding implications to their matches. Therefore, of the forty eight teamsin those ten groups,3239 of them are playing in meaningful games to them. That still seems like a pretty good percentage.Of the remaining games
in those ten groups,fivefourfive groups have (1v2, 3v4) matchups,twothree groups have (1v3, 2v4) matchups, andthreefour have (1v4, 2v3) matchups.I'll revisit this tomorrow after Groups K and L have played their matches today.
Data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup
Edit: corrected Group A's remaining games and statistics at the bottom
Edit 2: Added results of Tuesday games and updated overall statistics.
Edit 3: Looking back at this, it appears that only Group D and Group J have meaningless games, or "dead rubbers", in what I would define as games where neither team can improve their standing in the group (e.g. 1v4 games where 1 has clinched the top spot and 4 has been eliminated).
Right off the bat, I think this is inaccurate - Mexico (1) and South Korea (2) have already played (Mexico won 1-0) so your 1v2 match isn't correct. It's actually 1v3, and 2v4. To your point, there are still meaningful matches here. Mexico has already won the group outright so they don't have any reason to seek a result in the last match. The best Korea could hope for is to win and lock up the 2nd spot. A draw would also secure 2nd for them. South Africa and Czechia both need wins to stay afloat. The bottom of the group is where it's interesting. Unlike Group D, where Turkiye is completely eliminated no matter what, South Africa and Czechia both have a reasonably good shot at advancing with wins. South Korea has the most to lose. IF South Africa and Czechia both win (unlikely, but possible) that could knock South Korea down to 3rd and put them at risk of going home.
That's correct, I missed that, will update.
Although this is technically correct, the only way England won't advance will be if Panama beats them by 2 goals or more AND Croatia beat Ghana. Otherwise, England are in the top 2. Supposing England loses, there's really only one scenario that might happen in the other match to knock them down to 3rd. If Ghana and Croatia draw, Ghana will take the top spot on 5 points and England would be ahead of Croatia on 4 points each due to the h2h tie-breaker. If Ghana wins, England will be in 2nd on 4 points ahead of Croatia and Panama each on 3. If Croatia wins, they jump up to 1st but what happens with Ghana and England will depend on the score differences in the two matches. If Ghana loses, their GD will get worse (right now they are 1 goal behind England) so England will need to lose by 2 more goals than Ghana loses by for Ghana to take the second spot. If, at the end of it all, Ghana and England have the same GD, England will win on GF, as they have scored 3 more goals than Ghana (unless something crazy happens and Croatia beats Ghana 5-4 and England lose to Panama 2-0). Even if that happens, England would likely be one of the top 8 3rd place teams with 4 points. I think it's safe to say England and Ghana each have at least 2 more games left because I think if either falls to 3rd they'll get through on 4 points. Croatia is kind of the wildcard. They could win the group, or they could end up being one of the third place teams in the uncomfortable position of having just 3 points and may need other tie-breakers, like discipline metrics, to get through to the r32.
I'm happy to have been wrong with the frequency of the "dead rubber" matches. I wonder if any of the group standings would be different if they had kept the old tie-breaker rules that started w/ GD/GF before h2h?
I kinda think the groups are small enough that the points/GD sort themselves out regardless of h2h. I imagine that it all aligns. If you beat a team h2h you beat them on points and GD and they'd have to have a pretty epic result to overcome that. I don't think there have been any cases yet where the h2h tie-breaker is different than the GD tie-breaker would have been.
I guess what I'm saying is I don't see how the results are any different with the h2h tie-breaker rule taking precedence over GD/GF. The only difference I can see is that a couple of teams were completely eliminated from contention before they played their last game. The example I've been using this whole time, Turkiye, won their last game to get to 3 points but they still find themselves in 4th due to the AUS-PAR draw. Had that game ended differently, it would become more interesting as Turkiye finished with 3 GF (more than both Aus/Par) and a GD of -2 (matching Par, and only 1 behind Aus). The whole group might have been different if not for the h2h tie-breaker because the US wouldn't have locked up the top spot, necessarily. Would have been a long shot (and it obviously didn't happen) but if Australia had won by 5 goals they would have jumped the US to take the top spot. Knowing that could have been possible, the US probably doesn't make 9 changes and they probably play differently and win that game against Turkiye.
Disappointing result for England. Credit Ghana for playing a very defensive low block to frustrate England. England made changes to unlock the low block but it was far too late. They created more chances in the second half but failed to net one. Still lead the group but will need to win their final match to secure the top spot. Nightmare scenario is Panama beats Croatia tonight, making that match very dangerous for England. A loss there paired with Ghana winning over Croatia could knock them down to 3rd. You had better believe England are pulling hard for Croatia
England are fortunate Croatia wins 1-0. With that result England will advance. A win over Panama secures top spot. A draw could too, provided Croatia and Ghana also draw. If England lose to Panama they could be jumped by one of Croatia and Ghana but not both. I expect Panama to play a more open style than Ghana against England. They'll need to if they want to win and get some points. That will suit England's style more and will lend itself to more clear cut chances that England will surely put in the net.
Not counting chickens but our path forward is clearing up.
Looks very likely it'll be Bosnia & Herzegovina. It'll be interesting to see what the "cut line" will be for 3rd place teams
Unlikely, but there is potential for as many as 9 3rd place teams to be on 3 points, so having just 3 points is going to be nerve racking for some teams. Scotland and S. Korea might get through. Or they might not. We don't know yet. Tense time for those teams/fans. This new wrinkle has definitely added some intrigue to the tournament, IMO. I think the "cut line" could end up being GD. Scotland were unfortunate to run up against a Brazil team that needed a win to secure the top spot. Losing 0-3 put them in a significant GD hole and should there be more than 8 teams with 3 points or more, Scotland likely will miss out as their GD is -3. That's a real shame, I'd love to see more of Scotland in this tournament. Here's hoping that at least 4 3rd place teams finish on fewer than 3 points.
Scotland got assblasted by the Brazilian Borg. But if they don't advance, please more Scots realizing our British roots in Boston and having a good time. What a fun run.
They're probably draining Miami tonight.
This is the bad kind of Brazilian Butt Lift.
VIVA COLOMBIA
Also, futbol is better when the stars shine. Greatness draws interest in the game. Nobody wants to see a team play with the ball in the midfield up 1-0 for 45 minutes. Teams are pressing for goals, and it is great.
Yes, the American audience loves scoring. And this particular tournament has not disappointed in that regard. More goals were expected just by the sheer number of teams - still we've been treated to some high scoring matches so far - I expect the scoring will slow down some in the knockouts but as you said, the stars have shown up. All of the big names already have at least 2 goals each through just two games. Messi is well on his way to winning the golden boot already. Wondering how the style of play will change, if at all, during the knockouts. Through group stage, so far, most of the teams tend to have an open style of play, which lends itself to more space that the elite teams can exploit. The low-block boring park-the-bus style of football is less prevalent in this tournament (perhaps thanks to Italy not being in it). Some of the overmatched teams relied on that style to counter the more talented teams (to great effect) but as those teams get knocked out I think we'll see less of the low-block and more high pressing so there will be some higher paced games, I hope.
There should be some good games today.
I think Group E is going to be the most interesting, even though Germany have already won the group outright. Ecuador is currently in 3rd on 1 point and badly need a win. Germany, don't need a result at all. How will they play? Will they play bench players and take it easy, giving Ecuador a chance to get to 4 points and likely secure a spot in the r32? Or do they play their A game and effectively send Ecuador home? On the other side of the group, Curacao isn't actually fully eliminated yet. They could conceivably win over Cote d'Ivoire and get to 4 points, which likely gets them through. Cote d'Ivoire needs at least a draw to feel comfortable, as they currently have just 3 points. That will be an interesting match because Curacao definitely needs a win and Cote d'Ivoire can't afford to lose.
Group F is a bit less interesting. I think Netherlands has a favorable matchup with Tunisia. Tunisia are eliminated. Even if they win, they will be behind Sweden on h2h. Netherlands will want to win that to top the group, so they're not holding any punches and they have proven they can score in bunches. Tunisia, on -8 GD, will give up goals. I don't think it'll be a very interesting match. Netherlands should win easily. On the other side, however, Japan and Sweden are battling for a top spot in the group. Japan has the advantage with the 1 point lead in the group so a draw will be fine for them, but a loss could knock them down to 3rd. On 4 points, they'd have to feel pretty confident they'd advance, though. Sweden doesn't have that luxury. 3 points may be enough, or it may not. They benefit from a 0 GD at the moment but a landslide loss could scupper them. Sweden will need at least a draw, and preferably a win to keep their tournament alive. They'll be pressing and that could open up the game and provide Japan with opportunities to lock up the 2nd spot in the group.
Group D is the least interesting for the day. The US has topped the group and are playing in a meaningless friendly against a team that has been eliminated already. Neither team has any stake in the match. I'd expect the US to rest players. Turkiye may try for a win, for pride's sake, but it'll be a hollow victory, should they manage to get one. The other side of the group is more interesting. Australia and Paraguay are playing for 2nd. A draw likely gets them both through to the r32. Paraguay is at more risk of going home if they lose as they have a -2 GD and 3 points. Neither team wants it to come down to GD, though, so I expect both will be playing for the win. Paraguay needs the win more than Australia does, as a draw would leave Australia in 2nd. But Paraguay also can't afford to lose as much as Australia can, so they need to tread lightly and not open themselves up to counterattacks that could put them behind.
Yeah, I was thinking the battles for 2nd/3rd are the more interesting battles today. Japan Sweden should be GOOD same as Curaco and Cote
Australia Paraguay could be interesting as well. The 2/3 matches are fascinating to me with the wrinkle that some 3rd place teams will also advance. In previous tournaments, if each team has a shot at the 2nd spot they each fight tooth and nail to get that win. In this tournament, some teams have the luxury of feeling comfortable advancing in 3rd and that could change the dynamics of the game. I'm not sure yet if that's a good thing or not. I expect most teams will play hard for 2nd but the stakes are different. The risk of losing isn't quite as high. But does the lower risk encourage more open play? Or does the desire to get a point and get through at 3rd encourage teams to sit back and ping the ball around at midfield? I guess we'll see.
It could take a couple tournaments in this format to get an idea of how teams will approach their last match when they have 3 points going in, as is the case for several teams (Korea, Scotland, Australia, Paraguay, Cote d'Ivoire, Sweden, Austria, Algeria, Croatia all have/had 3 points after two matches). I think Korea was pretty gutted with the loss last night. But they still have 3 points and a decent shot at advancing, depending on how other groups play out. But, they might also be going home. There are currently 5 3rd place teams on 2 points or less in the remaining groups. If they all lose, then all the teams with 3 points or more will advance. If half of them win or draw, then you'll have more than 8 teams with 3+ points and someone with 3 points is going home. I think it'll make for some good drama over the next couple days as we find out where other groups land. We'll see. I know Korea and Scotland are on the edge of their seats, hoping for the favorites to win the rest of the way. They could both get through, or they could both go home. Or Scotland might be going home while Korea advance. Nobody knows!!! Yet.
Ecuador up 2-1 with about 10 minutes to go right now. Ivory Coast looking very safe with a 2-0 lead.
Correction. Ecuador does what they needed to try and continue. They moved to third place with 4 points.
Looking ahead, I think tomorrow's games in groups G and H are going to be even better. Everyone will want to watch France and Norway but that's not actually a very high stakes game. The winner tops the group and the other comes second. Both advance regardless. Ho-hum. The other side of that group is playing for 3rd, so that'll be kind of fun as both teams need to win. A win is the only path forward, and even then, it's not guaranteed to get them a spot in the knockouts.
But G and H have all kinds of possibilities. The group leaders only have 4 points. The second and third place teams in both groups have 2 each, and the last place teams are sitting on 1 point each. In each group, the group leaders are playing the group runners up. In both groups, the current group leaders could fall as far as 3rd and the current group losers could rise as far as second. There's a ton of possible outcomes including potentially having third place teams finishing on 3 points, which I think is in that zone of uncertainty. You could just as easily see 3rd place teams finish on 4, which I think will be good enough to advance. I think those two groups might have the best run of day 3 matches out of all 12 groups.
The interest in France/Norway will be on trying to figure out if they are that good due to being undefeated or was their bracket that weak. Does France/Norway have what it takes to make a deep run towards the Cup?
well, yes, that, and also two scoring superstars in Haaland and Mbappe. There's a fair amount of intrigue in that match and it could be a preview of the Final match (though, unless Norway win, I don't think anyone thinks they'd make it that far). I didn't mean to downplay it. A lot of people will want to watch it and for good reason. It's just not that much of a high-stakes match since both teams are guaranteed a spot in the r32.
I do think France has what it takes to make a deep run. Norway is the question mark, IMO. If they play France tight and that game ends 1-0 or 2-1 either way then I think Norway's side of the bracket should be worried about them. Everyone is already worried about France, so I don't think anything changes there. It's certainly an interesting game but I don't think it's the most compelling of the day. That was all I was saying.
I want to see if its 5-4 or 1-0. How many can Mbappe and Haaland score apiece.
Messi better enjoy his record while he's still has it. Mbappe is right on his heels and could play in 2 more WCs.
Predictably, the US has made 9 changes. This is a throw-away game for them. I'm certain the players that will start will play their hearts out. They want to make a name for themselves and they want to do the best they can to win wearing the American flag. I think they could still win but this game isn't about winning for the US. I think the way it goes will be somewhat dependent on how Turkiye come out. Will they come out with vigor and vim (to quote Dr. Seuss) or will they be going through the motions as they've already been defeated? That could be the difference between this game being competitive or not.
I'll take the US in a relatively boring 1-0 type of match. 9 points will feel good going into the knockouts against (in all likelihood) Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Bosnia & Herzegovina is already confirmed now.
Oh, I didn't know it was official. I knew that of the 495 possible combinations, 329 of them had 1D facing 3B. Interesting that they've already eliminated enough of the possibilities to know that it's locked in. That surprises me a bit since there's still several groups with teams that could miss the cut. I mean, there are still 6 groups left to play that have 3rd place teams sitting on 3 or fewer points. Any of those teams could either fall short of the 4 points that seem necessary to guarantee advancing, or get there (with the lone exception of Senegal, who have 0 right now)
ESPN could be wrong but they said it was confirmed.
They're likely right. I went and looked at my spreadsheet and it's looking that way. Since there are already 3 3rd place teams guaranteed to max out at 3 points (Scotland, Korea, Senegal/Iraq winner) it's most likely that 4 points will get through. Not guaranteed tho. Although it's extremely unlikely, there's a world where there could be 9 3rd place teams on 4+ points. If that happens, Bosnia could actually get knocked out on GD/GF.
As of now these are the teams that could end on 4+ points in 3rd place (I've put GD for teams that I know if they finish on 4+):
Bosnia & Herzegovina(-2)
Paraguay (-2)
Ecuador (0)
Sweden (0)
Iran/Belgium
Senegal/Iraq
Algeria (-2)
Congo
Croatia
Thats 9 3rd place spots that could be at 4+. Then it'll come down to GD. There are a few teams at -2. From there it'll go to GF. Bosnia & Herzegovina have the advantage here but if Paraguay and Algeria both score 2+ goals then they could get bounced. Super unlikely. In all likelihood the teams that get to 4 points will advance. Since we know three of them (Bosnia & Herzegovina, Ecuador, Sweden) that eliminates a bunch of the possible pairings and the only remaining possible pairings all have 1D v 3B. So although it's not completely set in stone it's pretty gd close.
Pulisic will not start.
Turner will be the keeper.
All four players with yellow cards are not in the lineup. Makes complete sense.
The absence of depth at striker and midfield will be the undoing of this team in the knockout round. I love Pepi but his hold up play is non-existent, and Weah couldn't stay onside to save his life. The second half was atrocious from the midfield. Last but not least, Pulisic had to drop deep too often when he came on, and it nullified his pace on the wing. The game winning goal was a byproduct of Pulisic being so aggressive on defense, that an extra body was in the box, which is the cause for the extra man on the back post. Tough loss. We go again...
I'm far from anything remotely resembling a soccer expert, but I feel like the starting defenders are a much bigger risk than the missing depth at midfield and striker.
I think both are true. Our starting XI are solid and I think could go toe to toe with most of the teams in the tournament. Defense is an issue, but that's true for a lot of the attacking teams. When you attack with 6 or 7 and press high you leave yourself susceptible to counter attacks. Canada, Morocco, US, Germany, Uruguay, Norway, Sweden, England and Croatia have all given up multiple goals, in part because they tend to be front-footed, which leaves a lot of space in behind for their opponents to attack and capitalize on. That's the nature of the beast. To make a deep run in the tournament teams need to have depth. Teams like France, Spain and England have that depth. Norway, US, Germany, Argentina aren't quite as deep. Defensively, I think the US probably has more liabilities than the top teams, but it's always going to be difficult to defend when you're pressing high if the opponent is able to play through or over the press. That is part of what makes teams like France and Spain so dangerous. They have the depth and talent to defend in a mid-block and the pace and technical skill to exploit the space in behind when teams leave that space for them. Spain struggled to unlock Curacao's low block (same as England vs Ghana) in part because they are built to sustain attacks and counter attack with speed and technically precise attackers. Unlocking a low block requires a special type of talent (like a Messi, or Modric) which not every team has. I think Argentina can ride Messi to a deep run. The rest of that roster built around him his well drilled. I'm not sure they have the depth to go to the final again.
I think the US has attacking pieces (Balogun, Pulisic) but they do lack depth there. The midfield starters are adequate but their backups I think leave something to be desired. The defense is just okay, but that's kind of true of a lot of the teams in this tournament.
I agree with everything you say here. My frustrated post from last night post game was more an indictment of what I saw in the match. Weah had a terrible game, he said it himself. Reyna's inability to make quick decisions showed up a couple of times on turnovers. Granted I can be transparent enough to say I was focused on Reyna's performance last night, because I wanted Luna to get the call-up to the squad. I think Luna has the talent to find the decisive pass that a lot of our reserve midfielders lack.
Our starting XI can go toe to toe with a lot of teams, and can put up a fight, which is why I think we will fair well in our 1st knockout game. However, Poch will need to find viable reserves to make the kind of run that we want as a nation of supporters.
Yeah, Weah had an off night for sure. I kept commenting on it during the match as I watched with my wife. And I could tell he knew it when he was subbed out in the second half. He knew he had a bad game. He was loose with the ball and looked slow. The only opportunities he created were from offsides positions. He just didn't look sharp and that hurt us.
The way Messi can work around extremely tight defenses is a work of art.
To me it looked like you had a bunch of guys who never played with each other playing with each other. Kicks to nobody abounded. If they keep playing that like that our streaking of never winning three games in the cup will continue.
I have not been impressed with Pepi AT ALL. Thank all that is holy in futbol that Balogun decided to play for the US or we would have the faintest threat up front.
My concern from last night was why nobody could stay on their feet.
Did it rain? Did they over water? Too many slips and falls which I think attributed to some of the misplays making us look sloppy. It was to the point I was concerned with contact less injuries.
Also, I don't think the officiating was very good. I think they understood it was a meaningless match and let players get away with manslaughter.
I don't actually watch enough pro soccer to tell, but I know the announcers agreed with you on the amount of shoving, tackling, and hits going on.
That ref did 2 games in the 2022 World Cup, and this was his second game in 2026. The other was Haiti-Scotland, which was also a rough game with limited cards for the action...
I'll bet it has something to do with the fact they had to build a grass field on top of turf. FIFA mandates that all playing surfaces are real grass. To win bids, stadiums had to agree to building real grass surfaces on top of their turf fields and that is 1)not sustainable and 2)means the subsurface is probably not settled. America has done most of the things hosts need to do very well. But the stadiums just aren't designed for big time soccer and it shows.
The field was constructed of several levels on top of the existing surface. Drainage, vaccum ventilation, subsurface hydration, etc were installed. Nearly all of the fields are identical. It wasn't just grass on turf.
I understand that. I know it's not just grass on turf. But it's a temporary field. Proper soccer stadiums have permanent grass surfaces. A temporary surface is never going to match the quality of a permanent grass field.
Seattle was designed with soccer in mind but its about the only one.
I think they had to have overwatered about 8 yards out from the box on the US attacking end in second half. At least five players fell or a pass/shot was botched because plant foot didnt stick.
They did "grow" 3 different strains of grass for the different zones/regions from south to north. They vary a bit from the initial thought, but they have a 2' sandwich on top of the base level of most fields that have been meticulously taken care of for months leading up. These are the best agronimists in the world, and FIFA hasn't messed with them. I know a few gold guys that know a few on the team, They are in awe of what they've done for this world cup.
Norway is apparently mailing in the game against France. They sat their best player at least.
Norway made 10 changes from the last match. Lol. I bet that felt disrespectful to France (and personally I'm always for disrespecting les bleus). Norway fans are apparently not happy about it. They understand it, but they don't like it.
Kind of with you there. They knew they were into the second round why bother with risking additional yellow or red cards. Rest the starters and plan for the next match.
CABO VERDE. Undefeated in group play and 2nd in their group over Uruguay without a single win.
Credit https://iamhectordiaz.com for the joke here.
Is it too far fetched to think we can win the first 2 knockout games and then maybe it's a toss up vs Spain assuming they advance as well.
Not at all! I Believe.
Viva Colombia! Stupid big toe. They are the most entertaining team in the tournament.
Geez Germany. Lol
Paraguay and Germany will be remembered as one of the best games of the tournament, and it might not even be the best game of the day, with Netherlands and Morocco later today.
Germany got hosed by the officials and have rightfully appealed the result. They actually won in extra time.
I don't know how you can defend being in the way and knocking into the goal keeper on a corner, but that appeal will fail.
That's crybaby mentality and even more reason not to like Germany.
You don't know ball lmao it was an incredibly weak call. Homey is standing and gk initiates contact and falls down
Edit: yeah Germany appealing is sour grapes but that call was *bad*
The goalie was stationary when the offensive player moved into him and put 2 hands on him, THEN the goalie moved towards where the ball was going and fell down with some weak contact. The foul was for moving into the goalie and grabbing him with 2 arms and then never making any attempt to do anything other than block the goalie on that play.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-FDXckDpwk
I just watched the highlights since I didn't see it. I think Mark Clattenburg said something along the lines of "it's a foul but it's a pretty soft foul" and I tend to agree with that. Really could have gone either way, IMO. Unfortunate for Germany. They had their chances, though, and were unable to capitalize. Two of the penalty misses occurred from slow/stuttered run-ups and trying to read or bait the keeper. I hate that. It's nonsense. Just pick a spot and put the ball there with confidence and pace. The kicks that went in, even when the keeper guessed correctly, were placed with speed and confidence, without a stuttering run-up. That should be the model. Havertz and Woltemade overthought their kicks and were ultimately blocked. Stop trying to outsmart the keepers. Just run up and hammer it home. The faster you do it the better. Netherland's misses were similar last night. Too cutesy.
Mark clattenburg also declined to actually say what he thought until the on field official made and announced his decision, super weak and waffley like he's always been
This.
IMO: Stuttering and attempting to bait the keeper should be banned. If the keeper can't move off his line, it should be illegal for the offensive player to try and bait the keeper into moving.
But since it's not illegal: it's still a terrible way to take a PK. If I was a coach and someone attempted to do that after I've instructed them not to, they'd be benched. The success rate for PKs (I've seen this World Cup alone) is roughly 10%. Almost every time they miss.
Although I do agree with you 100%, I was disheartened to learn that, according to both Total Football Analysis and The Athletic, based on international samples sizes, stuttering in the run-up to taking penalty kicks yields a slightly higher conversion rate than "conventional" run-ups. I don't know how good the statistical analysis is, or what other factors may or may not be considered.
But from the eye-test, and in my own experience, I find the stutter-step style to be less effective.
After looking at that, the german player was playing to interfere with the goalie. The foul is justified.
If an appeal should exist, it should be every nation appealing why Messi hasn't been red carded twice or received any subsequent bookings for his offenses.
In theory, Messi should have only been allowed to play the first half of Game 1 and would've been ineligible for the rest of Group Stage.
FIFA loves their poster child though. And I say this actually liking Messi.
The goalkeeper initiated contact on most of the cameras then got benefit of being the goalkeeper. It was a BAD call.
Only in the replays that start after the german player moved into the goalie while the goalie was stationary. The movement of the goalie to move for the ball was after the german player already had 2 arms around him and then the german player never even attempted to do anything other than obstruct the goalie.
This, pretty much. He was a couple feet away from the goalie, then at the kicked moved right at the goalie with both hands out, then pivoted left. It look like his right shoulder in the pivot knocked the goalie off balance as the goalie tried to turn to where the ball was going. Either way, the move toward the goalie to hinder/block him is what drew the foul, IM(ns)HO. And I don't even know the rules all that well. ;^)
What a first full day of knockouts. And everybody thought the round of 32 was going to be awful because of the expanded format and 3rd place teams...
yeah for real. Two of the four game so far have gone to PKs. However, I do expect France to win pretty easily tonight. I think the Ecuador-Mexico tie will be super interesting. I think Ecuador could steal that one, and frankly, though I dislike both sides, I think that's what I'll be rooting for. Norway-Cote d'Ivoire is another interesting one. I sort of expect Norway to win that (with their starters, hopefully) but CIV could be dangerous. I'll probably be rooting for CIV since my brother and his wife both served in the Peace Corps there so there's kind of a connection. I like Norway too, though. That should be a fun game and I'll be happy regardless of the result.
France losing would be amazing. Anything to make a US trip to the finals plausible.
France losing would be fantastic. I don't think it'll happen today, though. Should they get through, though, Paraguay will make their lives difficult, I hope. If they frustrate France that might be enough to steal one. Then, France likely have Morocco in the Quarter Final and Morocco is a very solid team. They could give them some real trouble. If the US is able to make it to the Semi-final they will likely see either France or Morocco, IMO
Coming into the tournament Paraguay was the #41 team and Sweden the #38. During the tournament paraguay moved up to #34 and sweden to #37. Paraguay is going to be pretty tired for the next game after relying on lots of endurance to get past germany
Honestly, I'm not sure anyone is going to stop France. They look absolutely terrifying. They just have soo much quality all over the pitch. It's kind of unfair
They are the only European team I would actually put $$ on.
I mean, we're only 5 games into the first knockout round, but it has NOT. DISAPPOINTED. We're getting some great matches so far. It's been fun to watch.
I'm going to have to start looking for daily recap videos. All I've seen so far is the USA game recaps, and a few highlights (and that Germany penalty above). Not sure I want to watch game recaps alone, maybe some recap of the day that talks about the significance of the games as well. Thoughts?
I've found myself watching the Telemundo feed despite only knowing a few phrases and words of Spanish (4 years of goofing off in the back of class gets me that) because of how bad Fox is. Everything is so bland. Even when a goal is scored there's barely any excitement. At least on Telemundo I can feel the passion even I don't understand all the commentary. Once again The Simpsons proving true to life
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=442NF5cZhyc
Telemundo also doesn't have Alexi Lalas which is a huge plus.
Or Landon Donovan
Or Taylor Twellman
Canada and Mexico both advance. Will the USMNT choke, or make the host nations 3/3? I have a sinking feeling it'll be the former, but would love to be wrong
I believe!!!!
The way the US played in group stage, I expect them to win tonight. Pochettino has the team well balanced and their tactics are good enough to advance. The team played with a ton of energy and aggression in the first two matches as well. I think if they score early they will cruise. My concern would be if it's scoreless at half time the team may start to get a little frustrated and antsy and try to force or rush things. If they stay patient and play their game I think they will get to the round of 16 where they will face either Belgium or Senegal (and my money is on Senegal)
TL;DR: If the starters don't get it done and we start subbing, we dead.
Score early and often!!!
fair.
I think we can score in 60th min before making any subs and still be okay
We can also score in the first 10 minutes. The US has gotten out to fast starts all tournament long (scoring a goal in the first 11 min in all 3 games), so I wouldn't be surprised to see an early goal. But, because the US has gotten out to early starts all tournament, I'd be worried how they react to not scoring in the first half. I think they would still win if they stick to their identity, but it'll be interesting to see how they handle the adversity if they go into half scoreless.
I think the Vegas money is also on Senegal at least for this round.
I think Belgium are kind of lucky to be in the knockouts, to be honest. Senegal had to play Norway and France. They're more battle tested and I think are the better team. Belgium aren't pushovers though. They have talent, and experience. It'll be an interesting match but I expect Senegal to win it
ran into a co-worker in the parking lot this morning, who used to play in bosnia & herzogovina's top league. fun conversation walking in today. can't wait for the game tonight!!
England in trouble early. Are they going to be the next "giant" to fall after Netherlands and Germany?
This game has been an awesome watch
not for me, it hasn't. England look completely discombobulated. I think before the game they must have talked about how going down 0-1 early would be the worst case scenario. They've been panicked ever since.
I just turned it on. Their offense is looking combobulated to me. That save by the COD defender was crazy
Edit: Congo's goalie is FULLY combobulated. Holy crap that dude is standing on his head
Side bar, in the Milwaukee airport, just past TSA, there is a "Recombobulation Area."
Same in most airports if they bother to label it. That is the official "put your belt and shoes back on even though there really isn't a reason to take them off"-area
Yes but in Milwaukee it literally has signs marking it as the recombobulation area
https://onmilwaukee.com/articles/recombobulationsigns
Same in Chattanooga. I agree, its pretty fantastic
edit: the internet is telling me these are only in Milwaukee. But I swear I have seen them in person and I have never been through that airport.
TIL!
Evidentially, they put them up at the Summerfest Campus as well. Seems to be a Milwaukee thing.
I remember asking one time after they implemented all that crap if I really needed to take off my sneakers and was told no. Then after I went through I was pulled aside for a detailed exam due to failing the metal detector. Of which, I was polite about it but also told them bullshit I knew I had no metal on me as even the zipper on my shorts was synthetic. If they had wanted my shoes off I would have done so if they had said they needed to come off.
I check into a live blog in the 74th minute, showing DRC up 1-0, and in the next 30 seconds England scores. Of course, Harry Kane.
Sorry, guys. My fault.
LOG BACK IN!!!
I'm sure this was your response, well done LBT 😂:
I feel for DR, what a game!
Yes, if not for being up against England, I'd have been rooting for Congo. They've played a very brave and exciting game. They have a lot to be proud of
The second one for Kane was a banger.
When you're a world class striker, you need to deliver world class strikes. And that was absolutely a world class strike. And at a time of need, too
Yep, checked the live blog in the 85th minute. Harry Kane again.
The talent gap on a team level has grown tighter. This has been one of my favorite WC cycles to watch in a while. Past editions it felt like you knew who was going to make to the final 8 at least. I think it also shows what most people already knew, FIFA rankings show favoritism.
Interesting tidbit. Mexico has apparently played every game so far in Mexico City not having to travel at all. They get the advantage that their opponents come to them and have to play at altitude with little time to adapt. Is this the first time a team has not had to travel at all? Their last opponent filed a complaint with FIFA that they were unable to rest well at their hotel due to locals launching fireworks the night before their match.
They played South Korea in Guadalajara.
In the pregame show they mentioned the us team came out to enter sandman
It is absolutely bonkers that bosnia got 0 cards in the first half. This ref is letting the game get way out of hand
The fans there and I agree.
VAR just put a red card on the US in yet another sketchy call. Bosnia was getting away with worse in the first half for no penalty, we get a red card on our best player. They seem to want us out of the tourney.
I am a little disappointed the US fans didn't boo for 20 straight minutes. I hope that ref doesn't sleep soundly tonight.
I'm sure he is sleeping with one eye open, gripping his pillow tight......
And he's lucky the US crowd isn't like that Brazilian crowd from 2013; we may have THOUGHT about doing something to the ref but I doubt we would ever have stoned him to death THEN cut his head off and THEN have him drawn and quartered AND put his head on a pike at midfield of the stadium!
This sounded absolutely wild, so I looked it up. Crazy tragic story.
The tl;dr version: Ref and player got into altercation during unsanctioned, unofficial soccer event. During altercation ref pulled out a knife and stabbed player to death, after which, friends and family of slain player stormed field and essentially did all of the above (in skippy's post) to the ref. Wild story.
Yes- it was particularly relevant because the altercation was due to the ref showing a red card to the player who then refused to leave the field and came at the ref who then stabbed him to (eventual) death and the rest happened as noted.
I wasn't trying to minimize your point in any way. Yes, the altercation (ostensibly*) began with the issuing of a red card, so it is relevant in that way.
I just wanted to give people a little bit of context to the crazy story. Yes, it started with a red card. However, it didn't go straight from red card to putting the ref's head on a stake. I'm not trying to victim blame here and I don't condone any acts of violence, nor the retribution for acts of violence. I just thought it was important how the escalation led to the head on a stake. Also, I think, important to note that the event was an amateur soccer match that was not sanctioned by any sort of soccer governing body, so who knows what kind of formal training, if any, that either the officials or players had.
*there's no telling what preceded the red card - I'm sure that throughout the match the player and ref probably had exchanges that built towards the larger, more substantial, and ultimately tragic, altercation.
And then award a damn Red to Balogun for an incidental play! Just had the whole trajectory of the US completely screwed by a bad VAR call!
I was amazed at the red.
He kicked the other players on the bottom of his foot and it screwed up the step because the guy stepped in front of the US player, then he got his heel.
Everybody was amazed at the red. Heck, I think Bosnia was shocked.
The rest of the game with 10?
Yep, and suspended next game if we advance
yep and our only striking threat has to miss the entire next game is they can hold on.
Offsides. Ugh.
I think the refs have revealed how out of control the game has been and are now trying to get it under. two yellow cards on Bosnia in what 1 minute?
Scored with 10 men.
Great shot by Tillman and we needed that.
GGOOOOOOOAAAAAAAALLLLLLLL!
After the dogshit red call, the announcers saying the team was gonna have to "suffer" immediately took my brain to the "suffer in Norway" part of the Miracle drinking game (take a shot every time Herb says "again") and now I'm even more convinced we win the whole fucking thing.
Could have probably skipped the next 10 times he said it though
10 FUCKING MINUTES???
We made it through.
Very impressive victory. GO USA!!!!!
USA beat two teams tonight. We shouldn't even have to play in the next round. Just send us to the Round of 8
We beat Bosnia AND Herzegovina!
Down by a man for 36 minutes.
Even if there isn't an appeal process, the US Soccer Federation needs to be writing an appeal of that red to get Balogun eligible for the next game.
Thank God we're the most litigious country on the planet
Surprisingly, only 5th most. at 74.5 per 1,000 people.
Germany has the most at 123.2 per 1,000 people.
FIFA is corrupt as hell. Let's just throw a bag at them until they rescind it. That red was straight up bullshit
If FIFA want to hose us with a shitty call, then tell them to F off on all their stupid requirements. Take the sponsor blocking banners down on the stadiums, tell FIFA kick rocks.
We can appeal, 100% sure it won't matter because FIFA can't be wrong.
Apparently there is no appeal possible. We need an injunction against the ban to help his mental health. /s
What's Sorsbys lawyer up to
More than Sorsby wants to pay anymore apparently
We just need to find a friendly judge. ;^)
I would start Pepi and Haji up front and keep constant pressure on that sketchy backline of Belgium. Also keeps pressure off CP.
Pepi is not impressive.. Same formation, Wright instead of Balogun.
It's for his speed. Haji has better hold up play.
Pepi can get a flight to Antartica. He's not good.
Not a card?
But that is Messi, you can't mess with a golden boy.
All of the clips of the red card start too late and miss how the bosnian cut behind balogan and knocked him off balance and how balogan was just coming down weirdly after being hit from behind
Hard to claim he was trying to hurt a player when he never looked at the defender.
Despite not scoring early last night, they held their form, didn't press and fall out of sorts, and got one before the half. Defense was solid. Tillman was one of the best on the pitch (even without the free kick.) Weston was taking care of his zone while Adams took care of his. Ream possibly had the biggest non-scoring moment in the box blowing up a great goal opportunity from them late in the second half.
Gonna be a tough pill with Flo, but this team has matured A LOT. Two, three, four years ago, they would have moped for 4 days and come out flat. But I have faith Poch will have them focused, make the right decision, and have them on the pitch ready to avenge 2016 against Belgium. Wright could be a 1-for-1 swap with no other changes. Or bring Reyna in as a false 9 to play high in front of Weston, and he and Pulisic can rotate around. I'd like to see Gio on the pitch.
This is the first game I've have had a chance to watch of the US team and haven't really followed a lot of the cup this time around. I fully expected them to fall apart after the card and get mopey and slow based on historical performances. I was really amazed that not only did they not look dejected, they played aggressive even a man down.
BH had more opportunities late because of the advantage and because they were pressing, but it wasn't because of a lack of effort on the US side and I feel like that is different from other US teams I've seen.
WE MADE IT INTO THE OCTOFINALS!
Saw this today and thought it was pretty touching as a relatively new Chattanoogan. There is a lot to complain about pretty much everywhere, but the World Cup and the way people have treated visitors and teams has been a really bright spot in the past few weeks.
I continue to be impressed by this version of USA soccer. Even with 10 players, after they took the initial brunt of B&H attacks, they took control and continued to look like the better team. It reminded me a little bit of the Brazil of old, can't remember the year but they had teams that could continue to play beautiful futbol with less players. They continue to create opportunities with great individual and team play. Sharp passing into tight spaces, creating space out of nowhere. Fast and effective counter-attack and sound defensive play. I was expecting a 100% shut-down to hold-off B&H attacks, but instead, we kept pressing. That's not the play I've grown accustomed to expect from our team.
Hey, I saw that yesterday a player finally broke Pele's records from the 60's and 70's regarding scoring in world cups.
Parallels to VT football - USMNT finally got serious and invested in a proven coach and infrastructure
Continue to be impressed with this version of the USMNT. I've never seen them play this way in my life. Refreshing. I'm confident if we had Balogun we would win against Belgium. Without him, toss up. That red card angers me. Seemed overly harsh given the circumstances. I don't think that ref was particularly good tbh
Frankly I think it was a product of unfair officiating from the initial whistle. He completely lost control of the game following the red card.
One of the reason's American's dislike soccer is the subjectivity of it all with the harsh penalties following. Why isn't their room for a tiered red card system. Anyone with eye balls could tell there was no intent to injure behind Balogun's challenge.
I think it was a bogus call but could accept the red card 1 (no suspension following ejection) but to lose our best player in the biggest tournament in the world is ridiculous.
my biggest gripe in sports is how much is just vibes.
football: ball placement, what is/isn't a catch
soccer: anything having to do with the clock, what is card-able when
baseball: the strike zone
basketball: what even is a foul?
The opportunity for manipulating the game is high for no real reason. Remove the ambiguity where possible, especially in instances where a minor change can have drastic effects on outcomes.
What are your thoughts regarding the Automatic Ball/Strike system, and how it's being implemented, via challenges instead of all the time?
I think it's great.
Note: I don't watch baseball, so most of my exposure to it is in reels and such, so it could be really skewed
Meh. I don't buy this. There's subjectivity in officiating of American sports too. Pass interference? Roughing the passer? Targeting? Flops in basketball. Baseball ejections
There are other reasons Americans don't like soccer but I think it's disingenuous to blame subjective officiating, considering our sports are also riddled with it
Edit to add: I think one of the [many] reasons Americans don't like soccer is because we've never really been good at it. Americans like to win. We like sports where we are better than everyone else in the world. Soccer isn't that.
Yeah we are going to agree to disagree then. We just watched our best player get suspended for the biggest game in our countries history because of a subjective call that WENT to video review. We don't have the ability to appeal the suspension but they can review it for additional games suspended. It isn't logical.
There isn't an example that you can provide me that equates to the BS of what happened last night. There are plenty of subjective calls in our leagues. Not a single one of them has the same implications as the red from last night.
In my American mind the rules are broken and should be reviewed. Messi committed an identical foul. How can one player be ejected and suspended and the other is going to win the golden boot?
I'm fine with agreeing to disagree.
I think you're right to be angry about the call last night. It was a bad call. They happen. Sometimes you benefit from it. Sometimes you don't. I don't think it's the reason Americans don't like soccer.
I think American's tuning in for the first time only to learn that was the outcome of said foul are immediately turned off because of the absurdity of the result.
I don't think the call was absurd at all honestly, but that's my opinion on the matter. I watch a TON of football, and that call is a red card, 9 times out of 10. The moment it happened, I turned to a room full of US fans, and said, "studs up usually results in a red, no matter the intent." The only one that agreed with me, was my Pastor sitting next to me who is from Wales. I left to grab a beer, only to come back to a room full of dejected fans. I never said I told you so, but I'm sure the look on my face said enough.
I don't think Flo's intent was to hurt the player, he wasn't looking at the players leg (a la Messi), his focus was on the ball that was inbound to the player, and the player slowed the rate of his run, so it easily could've been deemed as a "players coming together" moment; however, the studs up, paired with the rolling of the ankle is what pushed it to a red imo. Player safety is huge for these tournaments, and as players and clubs complain more and more about how much football is played throughout the year, and the toll it takes on their body, these calls will continue to be called.
If I were the ref would I have called a red? Nope! But again, studs up...
I think we'll be fine, Belgium looked rather toothless, and I think they came back simply because Senegal tired throughout the later stages of the match. Belgium are like a lot of teams that have gone out early, including my German team, they rely on talent, more than the collective team play. And I think this WC has truly allowed the teams that play as a team, to shine the most, including the US. Now, hopefully Poch goes with Haji over Pepi, if just for his hold up play, and ability to finish. As I said earlier, the teams with the most depth, and the teams that use that depth as interchangeable pieces while still executing that game plan will be the teams that make it the furthest. Our depth will be tested against Belgium. Yes they have DeBruyne, Doku, Trossard, Youri, et. al; my biggest worry is the guy between the post Thibaut Courtois. That guy is notorious for showing up in big games. We challenge Courtois consistently in a similar way as Senegal did, then I think we have the grit to finish the match off in a way that Senegal didn't. #GoYanks
This kind of proves my point on officiating. American's are going to have a hard time wrapping their head around the result of that play warrants ejection and a one game suspension in the worlds biggest tournament. It wasn't egregious and was a result of the 2 players making a play for the ball. He didn't make a slide tackle studs up. The momentum and contact caused it.
I think Americans are going to have a tough time on several things.
I don't think a slide tackle studs up, or how egregious it is, is how the rule is written. But again, agree to disagree. Go Yanks!
It seems as the powers that be agree with me.
It wasn't a typical "studs up" tackle. Studs up would have been him leading in with the studs already up and exposed. At the most it is a yellow for a dangerous play. VAR also is not supposed to be used in that manner. The replays were clips that did not show the full development of the play leading to the foul. There was no excessive force or intensity. It appeared intense because it was replayed in slow motion. I think you have to look at it from the position of how the rules are written and expected to be executed.
The official rule is written in a way to allow the ref to easily defend their decision, but typically they hand out punishment based on three levels of challenges under the Laws:
Careless – Free kick only, no card.
Reckless – Yellow card.
Using excessive force or endangering the safety of an opponent – Red card for serious foul play.
Can it be defended, yes, but 9 times out of 10 it would not be a red card and there are many examples in this tournament cycle where it hasn't been.
Using excessive force or endangering the safety of an opponent – Red card for serious foul play.
I think it endangered the safety of the player, often studs up endangers the safety of the player, again, that's just my take, agree to disagree
Correct, the player in front tried to trip the USA player and made contact with his foot.
This! ^^^^ 1000% (and my battery is at 5%!)
That other time is Messi. The golden child. Such entitlement bullshit. He should have been OUT for that and next game, and he'd be in a totally different situation. The lack of consistency between these 2 specific calls is EGREGIOUS.
There is no other way to see this.
I COMPLETELY agree with you, Messi should've received a red as well; I watch the EPL though, so I'm used to the inconsistency of refereeing, for better or for worse.
MLS hasn't risen to the level of being inconsistent yet, it is just horrible.
So much for the "next man up" mentality. I'm not going to stop watching football because a bogus targeting call results in our star linebacker missing the first half of the next game. 🤷
Turning off a soccer game because of one bad call impacting one of the best players is soft imo. I don't think it's a reason to dislike the sport at large. I think it's an excuse for not being interested in the sport.
I am angry about the call. It was bad and severe. But the team continued to play well and scored another goal to secure the win. That should be celebrated. This team has already gone further in this tournament than a lot of people thought they could just 1 year ago.
I don't think anyone had any delusions of grandeur about this tournament. USA were not expected to seriously contend for the cup. Part of the reason for that is depth. Our starting XI are pretty good. Not much talent behind them. The teams that win are much deeper. That depth is needed in case of injury or suspension. It's part of the game.
But if you don't like soccer that's fine. I'm not trying to proselytize you.
I like soccer and you are missing my point. I will continue to watch and support but when my dumb American friends question that play, there is not a good answer. It is a stupid rule and a stupid outcome.
Targeting in college isn't much different...they can review to confirm and if they do it carries a half-game suspension.
There's a pretty good article in The Athletic talking about how VAR is being utilized, and ques
tioning the use of slow-motion/still footage in reviews. The still shots and slow-motion can distort context of the play on the field that is more easily judged from full-speed footage.
In fact, there may be some question that video review is being used incorrectly, against guidance:
A pretty good, thought-provoking article about how VAR is being used, and how it can get things wrong.
That's certainly one of the reasons, but the sport doesn't own a monopoly on shitty rules and shittier officiating. As others have noted, there are many examples across American sports. Basketball has became nearly unwatchable for me because of the rules and officiating. The offensive player initiates contact, but the defender is called for the foul? I hate that among others.
That said, I have a much greater appreciation for soccer these days because I understand the game better after watching my son play at a semi-advanced level as a kid. But there are two things that really irritate me:
1) Offsides - I completely understand the rationale for the rule. But to me it's the main reason why the game can seem so boring to many casual American viewers. It makes scoring so much more difficult than it should be IMO. Why not establish an "offensive zone" where once the ball is in the zone, there is no more offsides. Maybe it's a line that runs along the top of the box? (Is that the 10m box or something like that?) That keeps teams from just posting players as poachers, but would open up scoring.
2) The flopping. I hate it. And I also get that the rules encourage it so why not try to take advantage of it (maybe it's like NASCAR of old - "if you ain't cheatin' you ain't tryin'?), but I still despise it. What aver happened to being tough and not letting the other team know they hurt you? I know it's probably never going to change, but I still hate it and it turns me off from being a better follower of the game.
I think offsides is fine once you understand it, just like hockey. I could not agree more on the flopping. Fucking hate it.
Oh I understand it, I just think it limits scoring too much. The second offsides call that wiped off the goal last night was pretty obvious in replay, but it still sucked. And maybe the BH defender really was smart and quick thinking enough to let our guy make himself offsides, but I'm not so sure. I think our player was just quicker and put himself in position to score. The offsides that wiped off the first goal was crazy close. But I understand it was the correct call by the rules. I just wish the rules were a little less rigid by construct and could be relaxed in a way that opens up scoring while still protecting the spirit of the rule.
I wasn't saying that you didn't understand the rule. I was saying that I think its not a bad rule once it's understood. I thought it waa stupid before I understood. Totally get that people disagree.
Though I think it could be better. If youre off by a toe or a shoulder, it shouldn't be offside. But I don't know how best to draw that line
Flopping makes the game insufferable and takes away from the beauty of what the sport could be if they didn't flop every other play.
Flopping is the primary reason why I hate teams from South America, Portugal, Spain, and Italy. They are the worst for it. Not only do they flop incessantly, but they play physically aggressive and will actually foul the other team pretty hard and then when that happens they complain and accuse the other team of diving/flopping (particularly Mexico). The double standard that players from most South American and Western Mediterranean European teams display makes me hate them with a burning passion.
But, lets be honest, it's not just the players. The officials reward the behavior, which is the real problem. I think the officiating, at least on the field, has been much better in this tournament than in past tournaments. It seems pretty clear that the refs have been given a directive to not call every foul. I think that's a good thing. If the players aren't getting the calls they'll stop going down so easily. It's conditioning.
VAR is a mixed bag. Part of the beauty of the game is the human error element. Of the players AND the officials. VAR is taking that element out of the game, which I think does more harm than good. You can't have historic moments like "the hand of God" with VAR. With VAR Diego Maradona doesn't score that goal. Without scoring that goal Argentina may not win that game and go on to win the World Cup. The entire trajectory of that match would be totally different with VAR. I don't think the added technology adds anything to the game. I think it makes the games a little more stale. The offsides calls, in this tournament, have been a good example of how I think VAR is taking away from the beauty of the game. I think the calls should be up to the officials, not technology. And sometimes the officials are going to get it wrong. That's okay. They'll get it wrong both ways so in the end its kind of a wash. I'd prefer that to the robotically consistent and overly precise calls where someone's small toe can be just offsides enough to deny a goal. The tournament would be more fun with more goals, and we'd get more goals with humans making the call on offsides.
In my opinion, flopping is by far the biggest reason why soccer doesn't have parity in the US with other sports.
In my experience there are many Americans that do not know any of the rules except they see the flopping and it gathers a visceral response of disgust.
There is definitely diving in soccer. And embellishments as well. But something else Americans don't understand, if they haven't played the game, is that stuff that doesn't look that big a deal on camera hurts like hell in real life.
Studs to the top of the foot, even if it appears to be a glancing blow, really does hurt
Yeah, I'm aware which is why I put weight on the fact that our guy had that kind of contact with the studs on the BH guy and influenced the path of his foot on the way down. I had a multi faceted injury to connective tissue in my foot from that type of studs to the top of the foot type injury when I was in middle school.
I played soccer for 11 years from age of 7. That was when I took up rugby for about the next 15.
As a teenager I had a job of lining the fields for the rec league in the county every Saturday in the fall for 3 years.
Only organized sport I ever played was track and field; the injury I remember most was one I was on the 'inflicting' end of. In a practice, I was coming into the handoff zone in a relay and the outgoing runner was too slow starting his run so as I caught up to hand off the baton, my lead foot caught his trail foot with my 1/2" track spike. It ripped a gash in the side of his foot and was a fraction of an inch from snapping his Achilles tendon. I felt horrible about it but technically it was his fault cause its the outgoing runner's job to match the pace of the incoming one to ensure he cleanest and fastest handoff.
(PS the other thing I remember is watching shot put competitors warming up and some idiot walking across the landing area and catching a 16 lb shot to his sternum. Turned out OK but could've killed him if it had hit just wrong. Just goes to show that even 'non-contact' sports can be dangerous!)
True. I think I understand the offsides rule, but it also goes counter to everything ingrained in me. Playing pickup American football or basketball, you could never let your man beat you further down the field or court. It's a big no no, so when it happens in soccer and they call it offsides it feels like they are rewarding the defense for being terrible.
To be offsides, you must be behind the last non-goalie defender and the ball before the pass is made.
Perfectly fine to beat the defender to the ball after the pass is made as long as you started from on sides.
The offsides rule doesnt have anything to do with the goalie. You have to be behind the last 2 opposing players when a forward pass is made. One of the 2 is usually the goalie, but it doesnt have to be.
Last 2 .
That's a change since I played. How dare they.......
The rule has always been the second to last defender, but especially in youth leagues many people misinterpreted that to be goalie +1
Could be they taught it wrong back in in 1971. I specifically remember the guy that escaped from Hungary that started the sport in Harford County.
Either way, your description is they way they play it now.Most people do not know that is the rule.
Colombia is among the worst offenders of this too. The way they roll around in agony and then you review the tape in slow motion and they never even got touched. Drives me nuts. Late in the Ghana game one of their players shoved Semenyo and then fell down and rolled 7 times clutching his mouth like he just had 3 teeth knocked out. Ridiculous. I hate Colombia. I don't think Switzerland will beat them but by God I hope they do.
Agreed on all fronts from both posts. I am from a soccer family and truly love the beauty and art that is soccer.
I also feel the flopping is not as bad in this WC. To the point, that I have been able to watch a good amount of games end to end. To your point, the refs can "control" the game and reduce the flop frequency. It's clear they are letting them play and the flopping has diminished to a degree simply due to the ref ignoring the BS of it all.
I hope this trend continues as I would like to watch more men's soccer.
That red card really infuriated a lot of people because B&H was getting away with murder for most of the game. There should have been at least 2-3 yellows if not a red called against them in the first half alone. The ref mis-used VAR to call a penalty and then tried to get control way to late in the game by calling fouls and yellow cards.
I've seen Internet sleuths claiming the referee from last night was recently involved in a match fixing and "irregular carding" situation where he was forced to testify. If that is true, why the hell is he officiating the biggest stage in the sport?
Also VAR protocol states you cannot use slow motion for anything other than "facts". So good goal/no goal, out of bounds, hand balls, etc. The fact they used stills and slo-mo to assess severity is garage.
Feels like lots of folks talking about the offsides rule that didn't play the game. The rule is fine and does what it is intended to do. VAR is finally taking away the whole ref blew it out of the game which is a relief. The system is working perfectly to me.
Agreed. The old system had judgement calls take away legit goals. The new system is the equivalent of letting a defense return a fumble whoch may be called back later as an incomplete pass.
Garbage call in the Belgium Senegal game to give it to Belgium.
Yes. But I think Belgium is a better match up for the US than Senegal would have been. I like the US chance to advance better against Belgium than Senegal. Plus Belgium have been super lucky to get to where they are. If I remember correctly they needed a late winner in their third group stage to even advance out the group at all. Their luck has to run out eventually. Why not against US?
Australia just subbed out their gk before the pks
And he made 0 saves. Oof
I'm aware that it is really difficult, but coming in just to go 0-4 has to sting. The 5th was unnecessary after some bad shots by Australia
The guessing wrong and letting them dink it the other way repeatedly was rough to watch. At what point do you accept you arent stopping a missile in the corner anyway and just react to protect the middle 75% of the goal. This would also put pressure on the kickers to beat you around the edges and go off target.
Watching Fox cover the Argentina-Cape Verdi game and you'd think this was Collinsworth covering Mahomes.
Talk about the freaking game
And here come the flops
Another day of awesome games... Especially #1 vs #67
This is madness!!
Unbelievable game! Best of the tourney so far 🇨🇻
Wow. Just plain wow.
A country of 500k....man I love this sport...nothing like it...
I was really hoping they'd put one of those final shots in. What a game.
I really dislike the "fall down strategically" part of this sport.
As soon as I say that, like 3 players go out in the first 5 minutes
The thing I've noticed is that whether the wind hits someone too hard or they tear their ACL, there is only a 5% difference in severity of the reaction.
People obviously get fouled or hurt but the flopping by the few makes you think everyone is exaggerating.
And the "few" who flop and exaggerate are predominately from south American countries or Spain /Portugal /Italy which is why, of all teams, those are the ones that I most despise. Especially Colombia and Mexico.
Really enjoying how aggressive Canada is playing. No idea if they'll able to keep up that kind of pressure for 90 min though
Started out hoping for an upset in Paraguay-France, but after the flopapalooza an other assorted nonsense I wish France had scored more.
Yeah, paraguay really showed their ass and the referee must have been on the take to gove them 0 cards.
Balogun is back!
Lets go!!! Huge
Lmao the checks cleared!
Or the threats were heard. My guess as host, it would be a shame if the rest of the tourney didn't go as FIFA was hoping 😉 .
Good. Never should have been a red card.
That must have been a huge bag tho
Not sure how I feel about that.
On the one hand, it should never have been a red card. But on the other hand, I'm not sure I like a country's government lobbying to bend the rules. It just doesn't look good.
Oh well. He's playing. GO USA!
When everyone was zooming in on the 0.1 seconds before the step, they kept forgetting that balogan got fouled from behind and was stumbling off-balance... Which is why the ref initially let the us play with advantage due to the foul on the defender
https://www.reddit.com/r/ussoccer/s/MN6ZB3AK7s
Context matters.
I have mixed feelings. I don't think the red card was the right call originally. I'm happy that Balogun will be available for the Belgium game. But I'm worried Belgium will play pissed off. Justifiably so.
And I really don't like the precedent. Suppose Mbappe gets a red card against Morocco and then that card is suspended so he can play in the semifinal. Imagine the outrage. Not a fan.
It would have been a better story for the US to beat Belgium without Balogun and go into the quarterfinal with him back in the lineup. I'd rather the US be the team that has a reason to play fired up rather than Belgium. This decision may end up doing us more harm than good tbh.
If Mmmbop gets a legit red without VAR intervention and got allowed to play, yes.
But if they misused VAR to give a flagrantly bad red card, and reversed it, I think people would understand.
Aside from Belgium, I wanna hear other nation's reactions.
I think everyone but Belgium will be quiet...
-Just incase they need the same treatment. (These refs are on their second or third game of the tournament...after HOW many games? No inconsistencies there...)
-To not poke the FIFA bear...and avoid getting some bad calls against them durting the remainder of the tourney.
-If you dont have anything nice to say...
I feel like this a "multiple things can be true" moment.
lol
I'm choosing to interpret this as \o/
I really despise these articles calling it horrible for soccer and showing bias. The refs have been playing fast and loose in almost every game. That said, it was looking bad for FIFA when articles were coming out about how bad the visual reviews have been and just how many decisions they have gotten wrong.
The Balogun play was specifically brought up up as VIR is not supposed to be used in that manner and if it is being used in that manner than how is MESSI getting away with the same thing in basically every game.
Barstool Big Cat had the best take. It feels wrong but it is nice for this to benefit us "this must be what being a Chiefs fan feels like"
All I know is, Go America!
This short video's gonna get some use! Noice!!
Wow, Mexico-England
I don't think I've ever seen momentum shift so fast in a soccer game
Another question for those of you who follow soccer, are the officials being unusually liberal with the red cards? Are there shady dealings going on?
I don't see this as shady dealings. To me, this is a problem created by VAR and adding more officials to each match. We already had the referee, two assistants, and the fourth official in the bench area. Now there are three additional officials in a booth that have dozens of camera angles at their disposal with the ability to watch replays. There is also the covering the mouth rule, which is a brand new rule starting with this tournament, that has resulted in two red cards.
More officials plus more cameras plus expanded red card offenses means more red cards.
Geeze that all would do it. I just looked up the mouth covering rule as well. Its pretty sad that even needs to be a rule. Increased exposure to way more games is probably also why I think there are way more red cards.
This seems like a good example of it being impossible to officiate and automate human error out of the game. That just seems like way too much
Definite Miami vibes.
"Now
MiamiMexico wants to talk about it..."What a defensive stand
Holy shit on that last ball that juuuuuuuust went wide. Would have been a devastating own goal. Hell of an effort by England hanging on to that being down a man for 30+mins against Mexico in Azteca
I think it was 50+ minutes a man down counting the 11 minutes of extra time. 11 minutes!. Norway might be able to walk through the next game after England wracked up 4 yellows and a red in that game.
The hard minutes at altitude are definitely a valid concern for England. However, outside of Haaland and Odegaard I don't think anyone else on Norway's roster would crack England's starting XI. It'll be an interesting one - Haaland is obviously a huge weapon and can single handedly change a game but I think outside of him being a wild-card factor, that game is England's to lose.
I think that the WH stepping in and asking FIFA to change the red card is being blown out of proportion. I honestly do not think the WH making a comment is what made the change happen. I think it is more about the optics that were out there from media outlets around the world. FIFA did not want to have this hanging over their heads if the US lost to Belgium without Flo. In fact, by changing it, if the US still loses to Belgium, FIFA wins in a sense, because outside of the US, nobody else really wants to see us succeed. And losing AFTER getting Flo doubles the embarrassment for the USMNT.
If you don't really follow the game on an international level, hearing that a government entity outside of a soccer federation stepping in to air their grievances to FIFA directly, might seem odd and out of line. It isn't. It happens all the time. It seems bigger now because during a WC cycle, more people are watching and reading about it than happens on a day to day basis. At the end of the day, FIFA made the correct decision to rescind the card, and are able to justify it using their own rules.
Enjoy the world cup for what it is and its imperfections. If this is your first taste of international soccer, welcome to the madhouse. If you thought the stuff the NCAA does and doesn't do it crazy, welcome to the big leagues!
I think this is one of the tiny things is emblematic of why it's tough for the American fan to grasp FIFA/international soccer.
IMO, culturally, Americans don't like ambiguity. We are a low context culture. I think that's one of the quieter appeals of American football - everything can be measured - your X yards away, there's Y seconds on the clock, we zoom in to see if any part of your foot touches the ground, certain penalties have exactly a 10 second run off, we go through so. much. detail. defining what a catch is, etc.
So the idea that FIFA would just reversed the decision with no explanation, and there's no need to be transparent, is wild.
FIFA: "oh yea that was wrong, we changed our mind"
American: "Cool! Why?"
FIFA: "We just changed our mind!"
American: "... what made you change your mind?"
FIFA: "We just did"
American: "Was it something in the replay?"
FIFA: "I dunno, we just thought this would be good"
American: "...Why did you think it would be good?"
FIFA: "I dunno, we just did"
American: "..."
FIFA: "..."
I don't necessarily believe this to be true. Now, there may be a lot of people outside the US who don't think we will succeed. But not thinking it can happen is much different from not wanting it to.
I just don't buy into the "us against the world" narrative. Frankly, I think a lot of the world would like to see the US win it. Especially if they are in the final against, say, England.
I will admit when I had my first wow the refs are biased against the US it was because I expected them to be calling the games close (and at the time I was watching primarily the US games). But as I have watched more of the games, instead of calling the games close to keep the players under control, it is the wild west out there in most of the games. Players are getting away with no calls on what would normally be a penalty kick, or even a yellow card most of the time. For stars like Messi, they are literally getting away with anything.
That said, it still seems like the refs have bias in a lot of the games. I don't know how much that is being influenced by some of the floppers.
Seems to me (and I don't profess that much expertise in World Cup games, though I've watched a few) that it's a lot like the NCAA, where the favorites get a lot of benefit of the doubt.
Not just the NCAA. It's like that in all the pro leagues to varying degrees. Certain stars can never travel or looking at them too had is a roughing the passer or they are allowed to push off but no one else is or they fling themselves to the ground and are rewarded while others are ignored, or they get extra time added back after it clearly expired, etc.
Probably would have been OK if someone weren't trying to take public credit for it.
Normally, these things are done, but in secret.
Just sayin'.
It's a cynical world, I'm just living in it.
Some people aren't capable of secret or not trying to take credit.
Some people aren't capable
of secret or not trying to take credit.FTFY
But they didn't rescind it. They only suspended it. Seems like if the red card was unwarranted, they would rescind it, but they didn't.
This is the shady part...Either it's a card, and the rules are followed. Or, it's fully rescinded.
FIFA was in a weird place and it should have been fully rescinded but then they would have had to admit that the VAR was misused and it should never have been issued.
Meh, not in a weird place if they uphold the card. Was it a close call, yeah. Have there been other situations that were worse that weren't called, yeah...but that's every weekend in soccer/football/basketball.
I think they were in a weird place. The red card was for dangerous play, the misuse of the VR system helped to lead to what could be argued was a bad call AND, if replay had been used properly, the red card perhaps could go to the other player.
This is a compromise adjudication.
Today I just learned that FIFA is only the second most corrupt sports organization in the world.
They were in first, but paid the right person to get moved down to second.
At first as I read this, I was thinking "who in the world is more corrupt than FIFA!?!?" and then I finished reading and got a good laugh. Thanks for that.
I had the same thought.