Why is everybody in such a hurry to escort Frank out of the building? I always see people throw these comparisons out there to Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno, but they were 80 and 85, respectively, when they finally hung it up. Beamer is 67. Hes closer in age to Nick Saban (62) than he is Bowden and Paterno at the end of their runs. Or I could put it this way: when Bowden was 70, he won the BCS national championship game in 2000. When Paterno was 68 in 1996, the Nittany Lions went 12-0 and finished No. 2 in the country. So this notion that coaches in their late-60s need to be put out to pasture at the first opportunity seems misguided to me. Mack Brown was Beamers contemporary, yes, but Brown also had four straight seasons of relative mediocrity, a particularly galling fact for Texas fans after the 2009 BCS national championship game appearance. But Brown didnt build the Texas football program into what it has become. Beamer, for the most part, has. Usually a school shows more patience with somebody if the latter is true.
Thank you for that! This is something that needs to be stickied on every VT website out there. This whole notion that Frank needs to be hanging it up almost immediately is absurd. He's got at least ten more years in him, if he wants to keep going.
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Andy Bitter is really a good writer, enjoy everything he does. He tells the truth, not just what we want to hear. Patience, friends. Recruiting season is not over.
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Andy I understand what you're trying to say by comparing states but you make a common mistake. You can't compare top ten talent across states. You have to consider how much top talent each state produces. GA and FL produce three times as much 4-5 star talent than VA. You compare the top ten in VA with the top 30 in FL. If a team gets 10-12 of the top 30 in FL they are doing very well.
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That may certainly be the case... but I imagine that if you extrapolate the numbers to include the top 30 in those states, you'll probably find a similar percentage of those who stay in-state compared to other places.
Just an educated guess without doing the research though, so I could be completely wrong.
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Total numbers are different from percentages. More populous states would produce more total numbers than smaller population states. What is being compared?
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'No one gets all of their state's top 10' is a strawman, because that's not the goal. The goal is to get enough of the instate talent to compete for the NC.
To do that, a FL school can get away with getting 10 or more of their top 50 and some additional talent from other states.
To do that, a VA school needs to get 5-6 of their top 12 and 6-8 of the top players from other states.
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Andy unfortunately used the state of Florida as an example. According to Rivals, in 2013 UF had the No. 4 class, FSU had the No. 10 class, and Miami had the No. 20 class. So not getting all of the FL top 10 players didn't seem to hurt them much. And when you look at their class makeups, you can see why.
UF got one 5-star and 11 4-stars from the state of Florida.
FSU got one 5-star and 8 4-stars from the state of Florida.
UM got 4 4-stars from the state of Florida.
So between them, they kept 2 5-stars and 23 4-stars in state. They also got a lot of 4-5 stars from out of state to complement their instate hauls.
It doesn't matter that these weren't all in the FL Top 10, since FL produces so much blue chip talent. In 2013 there were 51 players rated 4-5 stars in FL (25 staying in state), compared to 12 in VA (5 staying in state). So for 2013 I was actually underestimating the disparity in state talent - FL produced over 4 times the number of 4-5 star players.
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My point wasn't that those schools don't recruit well. My point was that even schools that recruit as well as the Florida, Miami and FSU aren't going to get every single in-state recruit that there is. For some reason that's the unrealistic expectation of Virginia Tech, even though it doesn't happen anywhere.
You even mention it in your post: roughly 50 percent of the four- and five-star players in Florida leave the state, about the same as Virginia.
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Andy, I really don't think too many people expect to land all of the top VA talent. Going back through the rankings VT usually gets only 1-3 of the VA top 10 on avg. For a head coach who has preached for years that his goal is to win a national title with VA talent, I think a reasonable expectations is to keep at least 50% of your top 10 if winning a title with said talent is your goal. Then also keep a good percentage of the 10-25 ranked recruits. There are usually several good players in that group too. But Frank will never reach that goal if he keeps striking out on the players he has focused on to achieve his goals.
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But it's not a big deal for UF and FSU. It IS a big deal for VT. VT invests the vast majority of their recruiting budget instate, so they HAVE to succeed instate to a far greater degree than the FL schools.
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Great article Andy. You help bring a dose of rationality to the rabid fan base of which I count myself among. In this case, particularly effective analysis on recruiting and CFB's future tenure. So thanks for that.
I've been reading your stuff for a couple of years now but just recently discovered TKP. In fact this is my first post. I am looking forward to enjoying this venue during the upcoming season and now I have someway to fill my VT Football addiction during the painfully slow offseason.
THANKS TKP!
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Comments
Thank you for that! This is something that needs to be stickied on every VT website out there. This whole notion that Frank needs to be hanging it up almost immediately is absurd. He's got at least ten more years in him, if he wants to keep going.
I don't think EVERYBODY is in a hurry to. I think the question was whether or not Whit would pull a "Mack Brown" on the Beams.
Andy Bitter is really a good writer, enjoy everything he does. He tells the truth, not just what we want to hear. Patience, friends. Recruiting season is not over.
Puns! Puns for everyone!
Nice column, Andy. Great answers to all of the questions.
Andy I understand what you're trying to say by comparing states but you make a common mistake. You can't compare top ten talent across states. You have to consider how much top talent each state produces. GA and FL produce three times as much 4-5 star talent than VA. You compare the top ten in VA with the top 30 in FL. If a team gets 10-12 of the top 30 in FL they are doing very well.
That may certainly be the case... but I imagine that if you extrapolate the numbers to include the top 30 in those states, you'll probably find a similar percentage of those who stay in-state compared to other places.
Just an educated guess without doing the research though, so I could be completely wrong.
Total numbers are different from percentages. More populous states would produce more total numbers than smaller population states. What is being compared?
'No one gets all of their state's top 10' is a strawman, because that's not the goal. The goal is to get enough of the instate talent to compete for the NC.
To do that, a FL school can get away with getting 10 or more of their top 50 and some additional talent from other states.
To do that, a VA school needs to get 5-6 of their top 12 and 6-8 of the top players from other states.
Andy unfortunately used the state of Florida as an example. According to Rivals, in 2013 UF had the No. 4 class, FSU had the No. 10 class, and Miami had the No. 20 class. So not getting all of the FL top 10 players didn't seem to hurt them much. And when you look at their class makeups, you can see why.
UF got one 5-star and 11 4-stars from the state of Florida.
FSU got one 5-star and 8 4-stars from the state of Florida.
UM got 4 4-stars from the state of Florida.
So between them, they kept 2 5-stars and 23 4-stars in state. They also got a lot of 4-5 stars from out of state to complement their instate hauls.
It doesn't matter that these weren't all in the FL Top 10, since FL produces so much blue chip talent. In 2013 there were 51 players rated 4-5 stars in FL (25 staying in state), compared to 12 in VA (5 staying in state). So for 2013 I was actually underestimating the disparity in state talent - FL produced over 4 times the number of 4-5 star players.
My point wasn't that those schools don't recruit well. My point was that even schools that recruit as well as the Florida, Miami and FSU aren't going to get every single in-state recruit that there is. For some reason that's the unrealistic expectation of Virginia Tech, even though it doesn't happen anywhere.
You even mention it in your post: roughly 50 percent of the four- and five-star players in Florida leave the state, about the same as Virginia.
Andy, I really don't think too many people expect to land all of the top VA talent. Going back through the rankings VT usually gets only 1-3 of the VA top 10 on avg. For a head coach who has preached for years that his goal is to win a national title with VA talent, I think a reasonable expectations is to keep at least 50% of your top 10 if winning a title with said talent is your goal. Then also keep a good percentage of the 10-25 ranked recruits. There are usually several good players in that group too. But Frank will never reach that goal if he keeps striking out on the players he has focused on to achieve his goals.
But it's not a big deal for UF and FSU. It IS a big deal for VT. VT invests the vast majority of their recruiting budget instate, so they HAVE to succeed instate to a far greater degree than the FL schools.
Great article Andy. You help bring a dose of rationality to the rabid fan base of which I count myself among. In this case, particularly effective analysis on recruiting and CFB's future tenure. So thanks for that.
I've been reading your stuff for a couple of years now but just recently discovered TKP. In fact this is my first post. I am looking forward to enjoying this venue during the upcoming season and now I have someway to fill my VT Football addiction during the painfully slow offseason.
THANKS TKP!
Welcome!