Offseason Opponent Watch: Western Michigan and North Carolina

Alas, every year we hit a part of the schedule where we waste a perfectly good game week talking about cupcake icing. The bad news this year is we get two of those games in Lane Stadium. The good news is we've got some good games in between, and we'll be out of the bakery for good by about 3:00 PM on September 27th. After that, the conference race wastes no time in heating up, as Tech will face North Carolina, the widely-considered top challenger for the Coastal Crown. So, let's ignore for a minute that football season is still a good 44 days away, pretend it's game week, and get right down to talking about the Broncos and the Heels.

Western Michigan

Looking Back

Virginia Tech will wrap up its non-conference schedule when Western Michigan comes to town on September 27th. This will be the first meeting between the Broncos and Hokies since Tech won 63-0 back in 2004. WMU has had an up-and-down football program in its 107-year history, including a couple undefeated seasons back in the '40s. However, the past few years have not been so kind to the Broncos. Last year, under first-year coach P.J. Fleck, Western Michigan struggled to a 1-11 record—including bad losses to Nicholls state and Eastern Michigan—with their sole victory being a 31-30 win over UMass. No matter how you slice it, this was just a bad team, finishing the year ranked 118th, 93rd, and 120th in offensive, defensive, and special teams F/+, respectively. Please note that the F/+ analysis tries to factor in strength of schedule and factor out garbage time (really, are advanced statistics not the greatest things ever?), so there's really no positive way to spin last season whatsoever.

Looking Forward

The good news for Fleck is that he's bringing in a solid, 27-member, recruiting class this year (solid by MAC standards at least) highlighted by 4-star safety Lonnie Johnson and 15 3-star recruits. However, the bad news is that probably won't help him much in late September, as he still faces a significant lack of talent and those three-stars are still only going to be freshmen.
This strength of the team will be the receivers, led by rising sophomore Corey Davis, who is coming off an outstanding freshman season that saw him catch 67 passes, for 941 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Unfortunately for the Broncos, they'll be facing a pretty good secondary when they come to Blacksburg. Slinging the ball to Davis & Co. will be rising sophomore Zach Terrell, who, while splitting time with now-graduated Tyler Van Tubbergen (definitely bummed we won't be seeing that awesome name this season), completed 53% of his passes for 1,602 yards, 8 TDs, and 8 INTs. Beyond those two players (and Terrell could just as easily be replaced by r-Freshman Cam Thomas, or even a true freshman), there isn't much to be gained from examining WMU's two-deep, as it will likely change significantly when the 2014 recruits report for fall camp.

On defense, the front-7 will be loaded with freshmen and sophomores, but should be well-supported by an experienced secondary. Leading the charge will be Senior safety Justin Currie, who was in on 86 tackles, picked off three passes last year, and will be a serious contender for all-conference honors in 2014. This will be a team that Tech should run all over, but don't be surprised if big plays are hard to come by through the air.

Overall, this will likely be a game Tech wins comfortably, with plenty of backups getting game experience. I like the positioning on the schedule as well, as the Hokies will get a chance to recover from the Georgia Tech game before heading down to Chapel Hill to face the Tar Heels the following week.

North Carolina

Looking Back

One of the most intriguing, and worrisome, opponents for Hokie Nation this year will be the North Carolina Tar Heels. After starting 1-5, the Heels finished off 2013 on a 6-1 run, including a convincing win over Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl. The Heels are entering year 3 of Larry Fedora's tenure, and are likely hoping to see some improvement on both sides of the ball. Last year, the Tar Heel passing attack was efficient and productive, with a passing S&P+ of 118.4, good for a respectable 20th national rank. The running game, however, could stand to improve as Carolina continues to look for a replacement for Giovanni Bernard. After averaging only 148.3 ypg on the ground (88th nationally, 70th S&P+), it wouldn't surprise me to see the normally pass-happy Fedora try to work a little more balance into his offense this year. Still, the Heels return 15 total starters, including what should be one of the ACC's best receiving tandems in Quinshad Davis and Ryan Switzer, from last year's team and look poised to contend for the Coastal Division. What may be more important than those returning starters, however, are the big names that won't be on the roster this year. Strong safety Tre Boston, cornerback Jabari Price, and end Kareem Martin are off to the NFL, leaving major question marks behind them on an already suspect Carolina defense. On the offensive side of the ball, Bryn Renner has graduated, and the line took two major hits from the loss of center Russell Bodine and tackle James Hurst. However, no player will leave bigger shoes to fill than top-10 draft pick, tight end Eric Ebron. Ebron single-handedly made the UNC offense go at times and was an absolute matchup nightmare for every defensive coordinator he faced. I'm sure Bud is happy to see him go.

Looking Forward

This spring, the Tar Heel rushing attack appeared to take a significant step forward, with T.J. Logan building on a solid back-half of 2013 to solidify himself as the main man in Chapel Hill. Logan finished the spring game with 15 carries for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns. Joining him in the backfield will be the shifty Kris Francis (89 yards and 2 scores in the spring game) and the highly-touted early enrollee Elijah Hood who, although he didn't do much in the spring finale, has the fan base and coaching staff very excited. The quarterback battle is far more open than I personally thought it would be, as all signs pointed towards Marquise Williams taking over full-time after filling in for the injured Renner last year and making plays with both his feet and his arm. In fact, Williams led the Tar Heels in rushing with 536 yards and 6 TDs last year to go along with his not-too-shabby passing statistics—58% completion percentage, 1,698 yards, 15 TDs, 6 INTs. His athleticism and playmaking ability will make it difficult for the coaching staff to keep him off the field, but he'll be pushed by r-Freshman Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky came to Chapel Hill the No. 1 rated dual-threat QB by 247Sports and a consensus 4-star recruit. Neither QB separated himself during the spring, and each finished the spring game with one pick and no scores. It'll be interesting to see how Fedora decides to settle his little quarterback controversy as fall approaches. Replacing those two studs on the offensive line will also be a priority, although if the spring game is any indication, the Heels seem to be on the right track there.

Defensively, UNC runs a defense that can be anything from a 3-4 to a 4-2-5, depending on where hybrids "Ram" and "Bandit" line up. All that shuffling around didn't seem to help them all that much the past couple years (although finishing with a defensive F/+ ranking of 49 isn't horrible), and they could be in for some growing pains in 2014 as well, having to replace five starters from last year's squad. One of the most exciting and concerning aspects of a spring game is when one unit performs surprisingly well, as was the case with the UNC ground attack. Did the line come together in front of some talented backs, or is the defense going to have as many holes in it as UNC's academic compliance office? Time will tell, and that question could likely be the difference between a Coastal Division championship or limping along to bowl eligibility for the Heels. Tech may travel to UNC at just the right time, the week prior the Heels will be battling the Tigers at Death Valley, and a showdown at Notre Dame looms the week after. With their most difficult crossover opponent and their top divisional foe back-to-back, we should have a good idea of Carolina's chances in the Coastal race by the second week of October.