Books don't (usually) set spreads on FBS vs. FCS games, and many of the computer rankings out there don't use them for assessing teams...but that doesn't mean we are completely without stats to write about!
Let's first look at how the teams finished last year according to Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR rating system:
While they obviously played a much easier schedule as shown by SoS, William & Mary is no joke. They finished 8th in FCS and on a neutral field would have only been an 11-point underdog to VT.
Of course, there are end of season stats from last year, so let's take a look at the individual leaders from each team and find out who is staying and who is not starting with the QB's:
William & Mary played two SR quarterbacks almost equally last year, and both put up a QB Rating similar to Logan's. That said, those two combined for only 287 pass attempts all season compared to Logan's 403! This is a run-happy team. The QB rating for both W&M QB's exceeded the Tech defense's season average for opposing QB's, but don't forget that's against significantly better competition. Further, both QB's are no longer with the Tribe so unless there is a stud-in-waiting, don't count on much success passing against the Hokies.
Next we'll look at the RB situation:
We all know that VT needs to get it's running game going again this season, and hopefully we don't have to wait. Against admittedly easier competition, the Tribe only gave up 3.3 yards per carry. That is elite run defense, and we better hope that we either have a big improvement in the run game or our QB situation was undecided so long because both looked incredible (note: our QB situation wasn't undecided because both were looking incredible). We could really struggle on offense in this one. Further, William & Mary returns all three backs including Mikal Abdul-Saboor and his impressive 4.7 YPC average (far exceeding VT's 3.21 YPC from last year).
Finally, let's look at receivers (which would include TE stats if any were among leaders but they're not):
All leading receivers return from both teams although it is likely the Hokies will have to rely on theirs more given the Tribe's paltry 9.3 yards per reception average given up to opposing teams.
Now some random odds and ends:
- The AJ Hughes stat of the week: In 2013 AJ averaged 5 more yards per punt than Tribe punter John Carpenter. This year's William & Mary punter? Hunter Windmuller, last year's backup to AJ Hughes.
- William & Mary is a disciplined team, only giving up 32.2 yards per game in penalties last year.
- The Tribe scored a very good 87% of the time when they entered the red zone, but often settled for field goals as their red zone touchdown percentage of 53% is very low relative to other teams.
There is a standard underdog strategy in football that goes like this: Drain clock by relying on the run; play disciplined football; and hope for a little luck. Unfortunately William & Mary is a team built to rely on the run and play disciplined football, and they are unlikely to give up a bunch of points to Virginia Tech. This is not going to be a blowout win against a weak FCS opponent, and Virginia Tech will need to also be very disciplined and establish something on offense early—otherwise Tech is some bad luck away from an embarrassing defeat.
Statistics are courtesy of Jeff Sagarin at http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm, William & Mary athletics at http://www.tribeathletics.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPID=80810, and www.cfbstats.com.
Comments
Thank you very much for that.
Excellent work.
Great analysis!!
Great analysis as usual!
One thing that stood out to me is that I except mostly different names and leaders on both the YPC and YPR charts and that makes me excited. Especially the YPR chart; I really like Byrn but I see his numbers dropping significantly and those catches going to TEs. Knowles I think will be a non-factor this year as Ford and Parker take over his role.
I always enjoy these articles. Great work!
I am looking forward to getting some stats on the new players.
Man these pre-game articles this week are making me more nervous than excited. I konw we really don't know what our offense can do because of the double-secret probation CFB had on the team this camp but man. I'm feeling like we better play the best game of lives to beat the Tribe otherwise they are just going to eak out a 10-7 win or something. And I'm getting more nervous about the QB situation. I figured that they wouldn't announce till game week anyways. But more and more I read people are like "It's not because they were both so great that they didn't make a decision...." sooooo....it's because they both suck and had to go with the less suckier QB???? That gives me no confidence. I mean Brewer did almost start at TTU before his injury so he can't be that bad.
Bill and Mary being a run-heavy team isn't a bad thing. It will get our backers some time to adjust, make some reads, and fly to the ball. Good for them to get experience before going into a game with anOSU
I've gained a lot of respect for this Bill & Mary team and I agree that our offense will struggle in this game. I expect them to give our 2nd team Offense some fits in the 2nd half as I expect they'll keep their starters in. However, I know that Beamer & Co will have a solid gameplan so the players just need to trust in it and execute it. Let's do this.
It could be a defensive struggle on Saturday if these statistics hold up during the game. I'm hoping it's not a nail biter. Go Hokies!
I'm feeling more and more like this game is gonna be too close for comfort. We gotta be loud and proud tomorrow, get the team amped the hell up.
Thanks, that was really cool. I'm not a numbers guy but you made that really easy to understand. Keep up the good work!
As Tribesman, but lifetime Hokie fan, I can tell you W&M's defense will be good. I believe (though I may be wrong on this) they have a lot of returning experience on defense and if I had to guess, their plan will be to shut down the run and force a new QB to make plays, ultimately looking for some turnovers while attempting to make VT 1-dimensional. What I like is VT's elite secondary. VT will shut down their run and force passes. If W&M's new QB has a week arm and is under pressure, it's going to be a lot fun for some cats named Fuller and Facyson. I hope VT comes out aggressive. If they get up on them early, this could be a blowout; if they come in treating this like a scrimmage, where they're just trying to get better at a core group of plays, it's going to be a morale killer.