If you used any four-letter words when you found out Tech (No. 19) was ranked one spot lower than Ohio State (No. 18) in the coaches poll, then you probably won't think too highly of computers at this point in the season. Generally, computer rankings still have us behind Ohio State, but only because most gradually phase out last year's results as the season progresses. Just remember that the knee-jerk ranking adjustments humans make that seem somewhat logical at this point in the season become a detriment later when entire resumes are thrown out because of one unexpected result.
Let's see what the computers think of East Carolina anyway!
These are the computer rankings:
This is where those computers predict the result, and what Vegas thinks:
So Vegas has us at about an 11-point favorite this time around, with computer opinions all over the place, but all have VT winning this one. The odds of an 11-point favorite winning are 78.4%. Of course this has trap game written all over it, so many of us think that number should be lower.
So why is Tech favored by so much against a team its previously struggled with? Let's first look at any offensive or defensive advantages.
East Carolina is known for it's passing attack, but surprisingly it's the matchup of our defense against their offense that's contributing. When we are on offense, they have a negligible defensive advantage. In other words, rather than anticipating a shootout the S&P+ ratings have an average offensive performance from us and our defensive keeping the Pirates' attack below average.
Remember of course that just like overall ratings these factor in last season somewhat, and I think we're all feeling there's a real offense residing in Blacksburg.
The East Carolina Passing Attack
The Pirates return third-year stud QB Shane Carden and top two WR's Justin Hardy and Isaiah Jones who combined for nearly 1,900 receiving yards last season, but are replacing much of their offensive line. Some 2013 stats that should give you an idea of how their passing attack operates:
- 3rd nationally in completion percentage at 70.3%
- 7th nationally in attempts per game at 43.5
- 46th nationally in yards/attempt at 7.3
- 110th nationally in yards/completion at 10.7
Obviously this is a high efficiency passing attack that works the short game masterfully while posing little deep threat. In fact, here are their national ranks from last year in completed passes at different distances.
Thus far, their downfield attack in 2014 mirrors 2013, so don't expect anything different.
Individual Standouts
QB Shane Carden ranked 2nd in completion percentage last year, between Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel, while throwing 31 TD's and only 10 INT's.
WR Justin Hardy was third in the country in receptions with 114 (as discussed above however, both Hardy and Carden do not rank highly on explosiveness). Additionally, he was 23rd in the country on punt returns, averaging over 11 yards per return.
Statistically, no one stands out at the RB position (the highest YPC on last year's team did not crack the top 100 nationally) or on defense, but Carden and Hardy will provide enough difficulties. Think of ECU's passing attack as Georgia Tech in the air — death by 1,000 cuts.
Statistical Key to the Game
I think our offense will be fine in this game, not putting up 40+ points or anything, but I see us somewhere in the high 20's or low 30's. So really this game hinges on our ability to shut down the ECU passing attack as much as possible. The passing stat that was most highly correlated to ECU's points per game last year (r = 0.746) was yards/attempt:
There are two ways to limit yards/attempt: literally allow fewer yards when a pass is completed, and/or reduce their completion percentage. I trust our defense to keep gains minimal, so for me the key to the game will be ECU's completion percentage — anything in the 50's or low 60's would mean a likely win.
My Prediction
Hopefully I'm not making a mistake, but I'm not buying this as a trap game we'll lose. While it has those characteristics, I think our coaches were so mindful of it coming out of Columbus and we have a team that remembers 15-10 last season.
I'm going with a 60% completion percentage for Shane Carden, 6 yards/attempt, and a 30-17 Hokie win.
As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.
Comments
Gotta agree with the pick. I was going to pick pretty much the same score although I'm thinking the defense is able to setup the offense in some good field position due to an int or two which will contribute to a little higher score for the Hokies. I'm going 35-17.
I am worried about all the hype and accolades being thrown our way. I am guessing it is way to close in the first half (maybe even down at halftime) and then the coaches brring everyone down from the clouds at the break and we pull away in the 2nd...
Not too sure about all the hype being thrown our way.....at least I haven't heard it. I heard a lot more respectful talking of us before the OSU game and since then all I've really heard is "Man....OSU looked terrible." Not, "Man....VT looked good." Everything has been....OSU lost to an unranked VT team. What's wrong with them? Haven't heard much VT looks good and maybe something to contend with. Only a little of the VT is something to contend with because the rest of coastal is looking like crap right now. So VT is something to contend with in a really weak division. But they'll lose to FSU in the ACCCG...heard that yesterday.
Yeah, after the game and on Sunday there was lots of VT hype from the talking heads but it's died down a lot now. I think it was more shock and awe that our offense can actually be productive this year and there's a natural quarterback at the helm for the first time in almost a decade.
Almost a decade? C'mon, that's ridiculous.
I like Brewer and think he is a great fit for this 2014 team. But it's not as though he hasn't made mistakes so far and his weaknesses (EVERYBODY has them) haven't reared their head. I can assure you that if Brewer had the 2012 & 2013 weapons (or lack thereof) around him, it would have looked much worse than it did.
I totally agree, and believe if Logan Thomas had FSU's OL and weapons around him, I could easily see him putting up 3500+ yards in the air. But I'm pleased with the direction this team is going, and real excited to see how these young players develop. Recruiting is already in a much better place, and the results are starting to show on the field.
I always love these threads. There's just something about being able to visualize the odds. Also I'm with you guys, as long as our defense keeps playing defense and our offense simply shows up, I think we'll be fine
My take on all of ECU's passing stats is that they haven't really played against a team with a solid group of DBs yet. I understand that USCe was supposed to win the SEC east but they gave up a ton of yards to a first time starter and Central is a MEAC team.
3rdand31 or French, tell me if I am wrong here, I think the ECU offense could give us more trouble than most think. Their short and quick passing game could essentially nullify our speedy pass rush and make our DBs play very short (which they do well). Will we see more of a 2-deep safety coverage, since they don't present much threat in the run game, to take away big plays from missed tackles on short throws? Also the heavy short throw game will require more pass coverage from our LBs, who have shown they can blitz and stop the run but we haven't really seen them have to cover.
Looking forward to French's preview...this is almost the opposite attack of what OSU tried to deliver and much more in line with what they should have delivered. INT's are harder to come by in the short passing game, and the ball comes out quickly so it's much harder to get to the QB in time to disrupt the play. My thought is we will play our DB's close to the line to try to disrupt timing and routes and either force bad throws (with the receiver out of position) or keep them so close to the line that they can't gain many yards.
ECU is not much of a deep threat and likely won't try to be against our DB's, but will chew up yards through the air just like Georgia Tech does on the ground. They'll rarely burn you but will just keep gaining just enough. Disrupting their completion % is key.
Really can't wait to see how this converts to strategy.
I think you see a similar approach as was taken last year but with a few new wrinkles. Play tight man coverage on the inside while daring Carden to throw the ball outside and/or down the field. His below average arm strength translated to 3 picks and a very low completion percentage last year against that game plan.
It will be interesting to see if the starting corners rotate inside in press man and they put Clark and Riley outside. I'd guess you'll see lots of different coverages on the outside to complement the inside man and try to confuse and bait Carden into making a few bad decisions.
Not sure what ECU has at TE but that may be a key matchup for this game along with getting the RB's in space against LB's in the passing game. Although with VT's speed at LB, I'm not sure that is a matchup that will favor ECU throughout the game.
It didn't last year. 7 sacks, 11 TFL, 3 Ints, 3-11 on 3rd down.
ECU's strength's and weaknesses are still largely the same as year and Carden's downfield arm strength isn't likely improved. So I don't see too much of a change unless/until ECU shows they can beat it (although Foster will probably come up with a few twists on last yrs scheme for ECU just to keep them honest).
VT's running game was non-existant last yr (as was ECU's) and the game still should have been won by 2 TDs -- on the road. VT dominated that game after ECU's opening drive and I really don't see this one too much different.
I think we'll win, but I'm concerned. I think back to last week when tOSU had an 80% chance of beating the Hokies......
Reverse deja vu
Carden only threw 4 ints last year? That can't right, can it? He had 3 against VT I believe.
Limiting yards after catch will be big too. If VT tackles well in open space, it wins.
Good catch...cfbstats showed 4 on one page but 10 on another. 10 is the accurate one to state the obvious.
10 is still a very good number, based on 12 games.
I'll take a 31-10 ratio any day...will get the number fixed though.
I'll take the 1TD:3 INT ratio vs VT...
Wait, Carden threw 4 interceptions last year....three of which were to VT? Wow.
So I'm usually superstitious and hate saying anything that may hurt our chances, but given our past two games (we have an offense!) I can honestly see this being the game that confirms who we know these guys are. They aren't going to take anything for granted. The defensive front is gonna come right at Carden while DBU runs circles around ECU receivers. The run game has been on the cusp these past few games, but we'll finally see it come alive and aid an already strong passing game to give us a multifaceted offense. It's gonna be high scoring - for us, not them. 38-10 VT.
And if I'm wrong, I'll never make a prediction again, I promise.
Being wrong isn't stopping the rest of us!