By the (Advanced) Numbers: Western Michigan

After consecutive bye weeks, the 2-0 Virginia Tech Hokies looks to carry the momentum of their upset win in Columbus into a clash against the 2-1 Western Michigan Broncos of the MAC. Both teams are eager to keep their names in the playoff discussion and will certainly bring energy into this one!

Let's start with the computer rankings for each team.

The ones and zeros show the Hokies as being a middle-tier Power 5 team while the Broncos are definitely bottom-tier for FBS. But where do those computers predict the result, and what does Vegas think? (Vegas thinks you believe the dancer you're going to see will look like the picture on the card the stranger handed you while walking down the sidewalk.)

The odds of a 25-point favorite winning are 95.8%.

Now let's look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages before diving deeper.

By S&P+, Virginia Tech will have a slight advantage while on offense while holding a solid advantage on defense. To understand why, we'll look a little more closely at each team's personality.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings.

First, a note to clarify how S&P+ breaks down teams. In the first 7 weeks of the season, the overall offensive and defensive S&P+ numbers are adjusted for opponent, but the individual personality characteristics (Rushing, Passing, Standard Downs, and Passing Downs) are not. FEI personality stats are also unadjusted at this point in the season. So those characteristics seen here should be considered relative to one another and not as a true overall advantage at this point.

It's no surprise that the greatest advantage would come on passing downs for Virginia Tech. We've seen the Hokies dig themselves into holes, then escape for long third down conversions many times over the past 4 2 weeks. Similarly, although Tech's running game has yet to take off in any way, the Broncos run defense isn't exactly stellar either.

Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Tech offense versus the WMU defense.

We're getting deep enough into the season to start to see the numbers reflect what our eyes are telling us: the Hokie offense is not explosive, and relative to most teams Tech is going 3-and-out (first down rate) too often. However, things look better on methodical drives (those that last 10 or more plays) as that appears to be the only way the Hokies can move the ball this far.

The Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. Clemson (Unfortunately that says more about Clemson than VT)
2. Purdue (Considering just lying about the numbers to remove this)
3. Texas (Hey! That's a powerhouse!)

The Western Michigan defense is closest in personality to:

1. West Virginia
2. Georgia Southern
3. Northwestern

When Western Michigan Has the Ball

Again, look at pass-run comparisons first.

This is a good time to remind you that these are currently unadjusted for opponent. Western Michigan has a very good running game, but will not enjoy a huge advantage as seen here. However, we can at least glean that passing downs and rushing will be relative strong points for their offense against Tech's defense. FEI personality stats show us a little more.

Here we see that while the Bronco offense has been efficient (moving the ball), Tech's defense has been stronger thus far at preventing methodical drives.

The Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to the state of Florida:

1. Florida International (Make fun of them one week and they jump from 3rd to 1st)
2. Florida (Relax...DEFENSE, not offense)
3. Florida State (Drinking antifreeze)

The Western Michigan offense is closest in personality to (UNADJUSTED everyone. Unadjusted.):

1. Arizona State
2. Oklahoma
3. Oregon State

Who To Watch Out For

Who to watch out for:

1. Freshman RB Jarvion Franklin will get the ball often and so far this season has produced 9 TD's and 6.6 YPC, although against run defenses averaging 108th in the country plus Murray State.
2. LB Grant DePalma has accumulated 24 solo tackles and 4.5 TFL already this season, by far the most active defender at getting to the ball.
3. WR Daniel Braverman, who leads the team in receptions, is used on returns and occasionally participates in the run game where he broke a 65-yard TD last week.

Statistical Key to the Game

Western Michigan's bruising running back Jarvion Franklin may get most of the attention, but the Broncos can pass just as effectively. Simply limiting YPC is not the key to stopping them. They key to this game will be on the line of scrimmage—can Tech plug up their rushing lanes and pressure the QB? Can the offensive line open up more running room for Shai McKenzie and Marshawn Williams? Watching Franklin's TD runs, he's typically had fairly wide rushing lanes and is not a shifty tackle-breaker. He takes the yards given and makes the right read.

My key to the game will be tackles for loss, on both sides. How often a defender is able to break through and get to the RB or QB will be a great bellwether.

My Prediction

Rather than worry about winning or losing this one, I think we need to hope for no significant injuries and the establishment of a running game. I see Wiles' d-line playing good assignments and not allowing Franklin the space he needs to punish the defense, and Virginia Tech winning the TFL battle 5-2.

Virginia Tech 38, Western Michigan 17.

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.