I've been thinking about ECU since we lost to them a couple of weeks ago. Before that game, I know a lot of us we upset that we're playing ECU more times (6) than Florida State, Clemson, Notre Dame and Louisville combined (4) in the next six years.
After reflecting on how competitive the ECU games have been, I've changed my mind about ECU. ECU right now is where Virginia Tech was 20 years ago. They are well-coached, competitive, fun to watch and should be an emerging program in the near future. They are becoming the best football school in North Carolina, despite not being the most well-funded (UNC), most academic prestigious (Duke) or having the largest fanbase (NC State). I have a lot of fucking respect for their program and I'm excited to have them as a rival for the next few years.
I don't know why I'm writing this, I think that Gobbler Country article still really pisses me off (who the fuck belittles another person's education? That's a total LOLUVA move). At the end of the day, having an up and coming program on the docket for the next six years is a good thing for Virginia Tech.
Comments
Only if we beat them
Plus, ECU totally trolled UNC, which is like the LOLUVA of North Carolina...
This isn't anything new for ECU. Throughout the last 30 years or so, they've peaked whenever UNC and NCSU have been down. They had some really good teams in the early and late 90s. The problem with them is that there legitimately is a power divide in the state of NC, and they are very clearly on the outside looking in. UNC and NCSU, even in losing seasons, still move the needle more than ECU does even during a season like this. Recruiting-wise, they've done alright by getting the guys nobody else has wanted, but that can only get you so far before it finally catches up to you, which is why you've seen these huge swings of momentum in their past. One year they're great, a few years later, they're awful, then they slowly build up, and the cycle repeats. They just don't have the resources to compete.
Where there might be a few comparisons between VT's past and ECU's present, we had one BIG thing going for us, and that was inclusion in a legitimate big boy conference. ECU doesn't have that, and it will keep them on the outside until they can fix it. And if they don't fix it, all that momentum they now have will vaporize when recruits realize there is no shot at national greatness at East Carolina.
And lastly, I completely disagree about having ECU on our schedule. They are a complete lose-lose. They are a tough team that will give you a fight when you play them, but because their name is legitimately a national punchline, if you lose to them, your season is over, and should you beat them, who cares, because they're ECU. if we are going to play someone that tough, schedule some middling to top half Big Ten or SEC program every year, where you get the respect you deserve for winning and you're forgiven for a loss. I'm tired of ECU taking from us everything and giving back nothing. Its a series that needs to end.
^^^^^THIS^^^^^ Playing ECU is frowned upon by the big timers... lose lose even if ECU gets into the top 20. Heck I would rather schedule Vanderbilt or even Ole Miss before ECU, however I understand it is against SEC rules to schedule any team that isn't FCS for their OOC games.
The conference point is an interesting one right now, because ECU probably thought they were making the upgrade by joining the American. Unfortunately, due to all of the other realignments, there were no "big" programs left in that conference so all of the moves became lateral.
I don't think ECU has a good chance of jumping into the power 5 at this point. They wouldn't offer any new markets for the ACC. From what I understand of their academics, they don't qualify for the Big Ten. Perhaps they get looked at by the Big 12 who could be trying to get back to 12 or more for a championship game, and ECU would be a relatively close neighbor for WVU. Obviously, they're too far east for the Pac-12. If the SEC is looking to expand their markets into NC and want more cannon fodder, they could be considered, but I doubt it.
So that leaves it up to the American to climb back into power conferences. But with all of the conferences getting bigger, it's really squeezing out the possibility of any other conferences to move upward.
I don't see the American taking that next step. The only way they will be good is if they have multiple teams consistently running the table and beating legitimate Power 5 teams and I just don't see any of the teams in that conference being able to step up to that plate and do it. And the worst part is, with Autonomy just getting passed, the clock is ticking on the Group of 5 conference and teams to do something to get in before the curtain closes, because very soon there will be significant financial advantages to being in a Power 5 conference rather than a Group of 5. Within 10 years you're going to see a major power shift where the P5 conferences get far more powerful and the Go5 conferences weakening.
The problem with ECU is that... they really have no appeal whatsoever. Do they move the needle at all in the state of NC? No, they don't. I don't see the SEC going after them because the SEC prides itself on taking the legitimate big boys of each state. Go down the line and every one of their schools is either the premier school or one of the premier schools. They'll grab up NC State (who would love nothing more than to pull a Texas A&M on their Texas counterparts in UNC) long before they even consider ECU. The Big Ten? Completely out of the question, as ECU just doesn't have the academics to even be considered. The ACC? Outside of academics, we have too many NC schools, and nobody else is going to want to add a 5th. The only way they get in is if someone else leaves, but should that happen, its likely part of a major conference split-up, and would end up yet another lateral move for the Pirates. So that leaves the Big XII. Would they take ECU? Sure, and ECU would make the jump. Problem is, and we're seeing this with WVU right now, an East Coast team playing in a southwest oriented conference is an absolute killer to your chances at success. Your travel budget skyrockets, so you have far less money to spend on upgrades, and every away game is played at least one timezone away, which significantly decreases your odds of winning. For a smaller school like ECU, that would be devastating in the long-term.
Long story short, we're probably very likely seeing the swan song of ECU right now. They just have too many things going against them big-picture to remain playing at this level for too much longer.
During the latest realignment, when there were rumors of FSU and Clemson getting poached by the Big 12, and things were looking like we were headed towards 4 mega conferences of 16 teams, I saw a chance for the Big 12 to expand eastward and create a new division around WVU. The idea being that the east division would have 6 or 7 games amongst themselves, and then only one or two games against the west division, so you'd only have one long conference trip each year.
However, a lot of that idea was based on stealing schools from the ACC. With the current media rights deal, that's not going to happen, so the Big 12 would have to pick up scraps.
Oh yeah, they're screwed as far as conferences go. They aren't getting into a Power 5 conference and if things shake the right way (Obannon-paying players-playoff) we very well may go to the SuperConference model of 64 teams, everyone plays each other and we have 8+ team playoff. If that's the case, ECU is more W&M than VT.
I completely disagree with that sentiment. Maybe I'm a little more optimistic about their prospects than other people, but I don't think they're considered a national punchline anymore. If they go undefeated the rest of the season (looking at their schedule, that's look like a good chance to happen) and play in a BCS game (and ideally, take down another Power 5 opponent in the process), why can't they be the new Boise State? And if they become the new Boise State, how is it a bad thing for Virginia Tech to play them consistently?
The way Power 5 conferences wield power post-BCS, I don't think this is still a valid argument. Until they join a Power 5 they'll be a UNI, or a UCF at best if they're lucky. They've shown flashes of brilliance, but so has ODU formerly in FCS. Unless they're able to squeeze into the Power 5 in the near future, which is becoming much more difficult as the NCAA devolves power, they won't be able to match that meteoric rise.
There are a lot of ifs in that scenario right now. Sure, it would be nice IF ECU became the new Boise St, but in order to do so, they're going to have to continue playing at this level for a long time while annually running the table against their major power conference teams. Yes, that includes us. Boise St got all that respect because they routinely entered November undefeated and in the National Title race. People stopped caring about Boise the second they lost their first game every year.
So by your definition, yes, it would be alright to be playing a team that has the national (sort of) respect that Boise had back in the day. But the major problem for us is that for them to earn that kind of respect, they need to routinely beat us on the field, because we have an annual matchup with them stretching for at least another 6 years. Essentially, they only way they are going to get national respect is at our expense, and should we keep beating them at the rate we have been (5 out of every 6 years) that respect will never happen. I fail to see how this is a good situation for us to be in.
You know, there is one aspect where I give ECU props over Boise State.
All of Boise's "big" games all came either at the beginning or end of the season. Either they played a major conference in a kickoff game or a bowl game. Basically, they had more than a week to prepare. They never had one of those games scheduled in the middle of the season, even in late September. (Granted, our game was supposed to be in October until ESPN threw a bunch of money at everyone involved to put it on Labor Day. But I'm also pretty sure that we wouldn't have spotted them 17 points in the first quarter if it wasn't week 1.)
But ECU just had three back to back weeks of SEC and ACC teams, and they won two of them.
You comparison may be apt. To the casual fan, Boise State is "the school Kellen Moore went to" and little else. And for the next few years ECU may be "the school Shane Carden went to."
The problem is that Boise St isn't even Boise St. anymore. Anyone remember when Boise St. was the next Fresno St.? Or when Fresno St. was the next Marshall?
Being the "Next Boise St." Is like being the next King of Westeros, it's usually a VERY short lived experience, there's simply too much stacked against you.
Here! Here! End it.
ECU is Weaver's revenge (just kidding Weaver's cool).
I'd rather have home/home's with ODU. There's not even a recruiting benefit to the ECU series unless we play the away games in Charlotte.
If an 8 team playoff ever gets created that includes conference champs from the P4 and G4 schools, then by all means put them back on the schedule... intermittently... and still play the away games in Charlotte.
This 1000 times over. From a pragmatic standpoint we simply don't benefit at all from playing them.
I agree with most everything you wrote except for this:
It's been pointed out many times, and I agree, that playing ECU has little benefit for us. If we win we are supposed to, if we lose its a big red mark on our resume. That being said, I do think they resemble us from years ago and I respect that, but this game is a "high risk, low return" type of game which I'd rather avoid.
Of course all this means nothing because they are on the schedule so let's stomp 'em for the next 54 years as payback.
Hokie 'spect and all but no. Well written post, but I thoroughly disagree.
This is a great read by Holly Anderson which speaks to what you're talking about.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/east-carolina-pirates-2014-college-foo...
I am not for any Long Term series with ANY mid-major team or 1AA Team, Period.
We are getting ready to play ODU a few times.
I believe no one thought ECU would get good enough to beat us or play us closely every year.
We kinda fell off too though...
Yeah, and the ODU series is an awful idea. Awful. Cancel it now. Not tomorrow. Now.
I respect ECU's program a lot, even though I hate our 100-year series with them. However, as a current resident of North Carolina, their fan base is one of the most obnoxious there is. I'll be hearing about this past loss for the next decade even if we have another Decade of Dominance against them.
Exactly. If we win out the remainder of this series we will be hearing about the win from their fans FOREVER. At least that has been my experience with the Charlotte loss.
Oh yeah, coming into the game two weeks ago most of their fans acted like it was last season that they just beat us, not six years ago.
Break down of Directional Carolinas and Why they matter:
North: Tar, Basketball, Michael Jordan, academically detrimental In-State acceptance rates. Is a state.
South: Cocks, Games (Fuuh-bawl, Spurrier), Palmettos, Darude Sandstorm, Clemson anti-matter. Is a state
Western: lol (is not a state)
East(ern): cookout, ill-conceived sports arrogance, mondo babes, no quarters, dancing at parties is outlawed (no I'm not kidding.), "deep south" Tidewater. Is not a state.
Thanks for posting -- this is a great quick-reference sheet!
Can you do one for the Dakotas?
I would love to, but I'm not intimately familiar with any Dakotas; north, south or Fanning. I suppose Minnesota would be East(ern) and Montana Western? No one lives there anyway.
P.S. No offense if you live in any Dakotas, I'm sure it's lovely, and your GDP growth rate over the last 5 years has been phenomenal.
Could ECU get into the ACC if the SEC raided the ACC and stole NC State? Or *gasp* Virginia Tech? Or if Notre Dame went all in with the ACC, and a 16th team was needed to balance them out? Who else would the ACC try to bring in that would make sense that would fit in geographically, academically, etc.? ECU might not be a perfect fit, but who would be?
I do think eventually we'll end up with 5 power conferences with 16 teams each. That's 80 teams. There's room for a few more ECU type teams to make a jump up if the cards fall right for them.
Why would the ACC want a 5th team from North Carolina?
THIS. East Carolina (although they may be the best football team) bring nothing in terms of $ because we already basically cover the entire state of NC in terms of households.
Best chance for ECU to join the Big 5 is if Wake Forest decides to give up Division 1 athletics. Wake Forest is the smallest university in a Big 5 conference and is currently on a long downward spiral from their ACC Championship. Their leaders are not proponents of paying players and many other benefits and changes that appear on the horizon for the Big 5 schools. And, given their lack of enrollment, being private and sitting at the bottom in terms of relevance when compared to the 3 other North Carolina ACC schools, I could see them making a change.
At this point the biggest benefit Wake Forest probably receives from the ACC other than guaranteed TV revenue is the academic relationships with the other schools. If they could be guaranteed that their academic relationships would not suffer, I could see them walking away. This would open a spot and potentially East Carolina could walk through the door provided they could get UNC, NC State and Duke on board.
In a world where football dominates, I would trade Wake for ECU in a heartbeat.
The academic argument (ECU is ranked 501 on the Forbes list of Top Colleges) for keeping them out of a big conference is shaky at best when you consider they stack up favorably to
West Virginia - 443
&
Louisville - 548
UofL's academics were overlooked because they brought in a good football program, an elite basketball program (both men's and women's) a massive fanbase, and one of the highest revenue athletic departments in collegiate athletics.
ECU doesn't come close to comparing in any of that. They have a good football program, a good baseball program, and the rest of their athletics are crap. Their academic ranking is 5x lower than the worst outside of Louisville, and they have a small fanbase with a pretty small revenue base (annual revenue $35M, expenses $33M). Outside of football, they are simply not an attractive get for any major conference.
I have nothing against ECU. I just don't want to play them anymore. No offense, but if we're playing an annual game against a non-conference opponent, I want a team from a good conference.
Yeah, I'd much rather spitefully play the Turtles or Vols. Anybody regional, really (dare I say WVU? jk) like Kentucky. Directional carolinas not North or South can go frig off the schedule.
It would be great if they could get into a major conference somewhere, outside of that it's still a risky game with very little upside. I have nothing against ECU, but it's a game I'd still like to replace on the schedule going forward