I've already posted versions of this in a couple of topics, but those will probably get buried.
First, for reference, the ACC tiebreakers: http://www.theacc.com/#!/page/ACC-Football-Championship-Tiebreakers
All of these scenarios assume that we win out, and end up 7-1 in conference, therefore giving every other Coastal team one loss.
There are three situations that would result in GT ending the season with a 7-1 conference record.
1.) They lose to an Atlantic team.
Everyone else in the Coastal would have at least two losses. GT wins head-to-head.
2.) They lose to UVA (currently 2-0 in conference).
VT/GT/UVA would all be 7-1, 5-1 in division, and 1-1 against each other. That would take us down to the third tiebreaker, and it's too early to determine anything from that.
3.) They lose to any other Coastal team.
All other Coastal teams have at least one loss. We would give them a second. That leaves GT and VT as the only 1 loss teams, and again, GT wins on head-to-head.
Out of three scenarios, two are definite NO's for us, and one is a weak MAYBE.
So, our second favorite team in the ACC Coastal each week is whoever is playing GT.
Comments
shoot, if a field goal in the last few minutes of a game that we threw away in the 4th quarter is the reason why we don't make it to the ACC championship, then i may go do something highly irrational.
The field goal wasn't the problem as much as the tying touchdown where they threw the ball at will down field, just like ECU. We are batting 500 late in the 4th (W against OSU and UNC and L against ECU and GT). We are a step slower getting to the QB on the blitz. BF never subs for Mike and Backer. Not all of our DB are named Fuller. Facyon, Clark, Bonner, Jarrett and Riley are good but not great press covers unless there is a lot of heat. FWIW I'll take the risk all to win all over the prevent (you from winning) defense of dropping 8 and rushing 3 that BF did a couple of years ago.
And I worked out the rest of the ACC here: http://cfarena.blogspot.com/2014/10/acc-wheel-of-destiny-week-6.html
Interestingly enough, Pitt is in a similar situation to us...so our next game is the battle to be at the top of the "needs help" crowd.
Oh God. The Desperation Bowl.
Yes, and while we both have out of conference losses, ours is to a ranked ECU and Pitt lost to AKRON. AND LOLUVA. So I get the sense that Pitt isn't thinking about how they can get to the ACC Championship game but how they are going to win A game the rest of the season.
Oh wait, they're playing us next. I need to find my Walt Harris voodoo doll.
So let's make a deal with Pitt. They beat GT, and we'll beat LOLUVA.
GT will not beat Clemson, so we either need a 3-way tie at 7-1 or they lose to UNC or *gasp* UVA. I think those two have the best shot to give them two losses.
Assuming a 3 way tie at 7-1 between the Hokies, GT, and UVa (assuming UVa's loss is against the Hokies) still leaves VT short because GT would have the head to head against the Hokies to break that tie.
Georgia Tech will go 3-4 from here out losing to UNC, UVA, Clemson and Georgia. UVA will likely go 3-2 the rest of the season up to our game and make a bowl game. They'll lose to FSU and either UNC or Miami because that's what LOLUVA does. I won't predict the outcome of our game against them at the moment for fear of bad juju.
A 3-way 7-1 tie between VT, GT, and UVa as you describe is highly unlikely. If you assume that VT beats UVa and UVa beats GT, this scenario requires the Jackets to beat Clemson, and the Cavs to beat FSU, which would be improbable to say the least. Also, in a 3-way tie as described, all three teams would be 1-1 against each other, so our loss to GT wouldn't be a dealbreaker. We'd have to move on to the next step in the tiebreaker process.
You are correct sir. In my imaginary scenario, I was assuming that GT's loss was not to UVa, but to Clemson.
That scenario couldn't happen. GT and VT still play UVA. In order for all 3 teams to only have one conference loss UVA would need to beat GT and VT would need to beat UVA.
And for LOLUVA to beat FSU, and GT to beat Clemson. Our best strategy is just win out and hope that somebody in addition to Clemson beats GT.
What about Duke? They can beat GT
Two years ago, we'd be laughing at that. Now, they are Obi-Wan to our Princess Leia.
(well, not quite, since we've got a few other hopes...but I was trying to be creative.)
UVA will beat GT. They are looking like the biggest obstacle in getting to the championship game, and they will probably be ranked when we meet them.
But throwing the game away to GT did not help us one bit.
That GT game is still burning for me. The difference between yesterdays outcome and the GT outcome.....2 big momentum changing turnovers. We are better than Georgia Tech and we BLEW it.
I don't see GT making it through conference play even with only two losses.....yet, I don't see us tip toeing through the tulips either.
The Coastal Division is tough top to bottom, even from a national standpoint, in my opinion. Just don't ask any SEC fan because THEY own 7 of the top 15 college football teams...what a fuckin joke. Every time a top 10 team loses, its "OH BUT MISS STATE IS AWESOME, or TENNESSEE IS ON THE RISE.....blah fucking blah. No one in that league is an "ALABAMA" dynasty type right now and the result is this fucking swirling round robin of top 15 rankings - I call bullshit. I reminded a Bama fan the other day that Duke damn near knocked off TAMU last year and he looked like someone farted directly in his nose.
I'd love to play any of 'em, any day, and I'd feel alright about our chances going in. Sick of hearing about it like everyone else. rant over.
What pissed me off about the Chick-fil-a Bowl was that everyone was saying how Johnny Football engineered a comeback. No, he didn't, Duke turned the ball over and failed to stop A&M.
If we win the division, great, if we don't its whatever.
If our loss to GT is what keeps us away from Charlotte we have nobody to blame but ourselves. It would be enough motivation to come into 2015 with a chip on our shoulder looking to prove something. In a way I kind if hope it happens because it could make us that much better down the line.
For the love of a God, just beat UVA. I couldn't handle if they beat us in the burg this year? That would be 3 home losses. No that will not be acceptable.
Judging by the frustration on this thread, people better start preparing. Choking away that GT game is going to haunt us from a division perspective, as well as a national perspective. By that I mean, judging by the way ranked teams went down yesterday and the schedules most of them still face, a 1 loss (even to ECU) team would have been in the conversation by years end.
And if GT beats Duke next week, I think the odds are better than 50/50 they end up in better standing than us at years end.
Speaking of national perspective, IF the Hokies had come back against ECU, and not choked against GT, with the way things went down Sat for the Top 25, a 6-0 Hokie team is probably sitting in the Top 5 in the polls today... especially with the way OSU is playing.
just think of it
Beat Pitt, LOLUVA, and win out. Whatever else happens, happens. At this wedding (where I missed some great upsets) some hoos were gloating over beating pitt and saying this is their year.
They've been saying that every year since 1953.
When you sit back and think about it, do you really think that GT is going 12-0 or 11-1? I mean come on.
That defense sucks nuts, no way. Good point
No, they're not running the table. No one in the Coastal will. In fact, I don't think it's a stretch to see GT losing 3. My bold(?) prediction:
1 loss among (Duke, UNC, Pitt) because #goacc
Loss to UVA because their defense is actually pretty good
Loss to Clemson because Clemson will score at will against GT
We're not worried about the overall record. I'm pretty confident that Georgia will give them a proper beat down in the final week.
But when we couldn't stop them, and that's all Bud Foster does over the summer, I have doubts about the rest of the ACC.
And while we're hoping for a #goacc style loss for GT, that magic also works the other way, and we could see GT win all of the wrong games.
But this was also the season that everyone was sure that UVA would be in the cellar, and the Dallas Cowboys might not even make their usual 8-8 record, and well, look at what those teams are doing this year.
Well, the implication of 12-0 or 11-1 would be either (1) undefeated in the ACC and a loss to UGA, which knocks us out or (2) one loss in the ACC, which also knocks us out.
I think Bud spent a good part of this past summer preparing for the second game of the season.
Which he adapted from the GT game plan.
We did fine stopping the triple option. They scored off of a pick six and through the air from a busted coverage. Only one TD came from the traditional function of PJ's offense. Our D played well enough to win that game, but we turned the ball over and failed to step on their throat (fumble at their 10) when the defense gave us chances.
I can stand not winning the coastal pretty easily as long as win the rest of our games. Let GT take the Coastal, they made less mistakes than we did.
Warning: grammar nazi moment
The irony of saying "they made less mistakes..." Is cracking me up right now
4. GT gets NCAA sanctions and for its coastal and we go to ACCG as the number 2....this has happened before
The NCAA moves slow. Unless there's already an investigation going on, or they do something extremely egregious, they're safe for this year. Even Penn State played in a bowl game the year Paterno got fired.
In 2009, when they had to "vacate" wins, it was retroactive. (Which sucks because if they could have caught that stuff in time, we would have been next man up.)
In 2012, UNC was under sanctions from incidents in 2010, which they were notified of six months before the season started. Miami was trying to spare themselves the full wrath of the NCAA, and self imposed sanctions for the second year.
At this point I'm good either way if we win the division or not. Of course I want to but it's whatever if we don't. I know the next two years are going to be special seasons for us barring anymore serious longterm injuries or coaching changes. I will definately lose my shit if we lose to LOLUVA though.
The Hokies really pissed that game away. The GT defense is their achillies heel. If Duke and UNC perform at their top level on offense, they could shred GT. But, the offense looked so good against Miami, you almost have to be perfect on O to win.
The Miami defense has more discipline issues than a defiant, maladjusted teenage boy with daddy issues.
They would make a great play and blow an assignment the next play.
That's true but in the past the Miami defensive line and LB corps has been stout enough that it didn't matter. The Canes were simply able to out-athlete GT and whip them at the point of attack.
Miami has really dropped off from a talent perspective.
As the season unfolds, I'm getting more and more worried about the GT loss. I don't think Duke can beat GT this year, they've been too decimated by injuries, and UNC is NOT a good football team. I would have no hope for the present or future if the Hokies had dropped that game Saturday. Thomas at QB for the Jackets is starting to work. He's getting into a groove, and Good LOrd is that kid fast.
I'm holding out for GT losses to Clemson and UVa, VT winning out, with a Black Friday Showdown for the all the Coastal marbles with the Hoos.
I believe that if the Hokies and UVa are playing for the title with 6-1, 7-0 conference records, ESPN puts that game in prime time. Black Friday Night game in Lane with the Hoos. Hell to the Fucking Yes.
But in true UVA fashion, they won't hold up that end of the bargain and it'll be a 2 o'clock ESPN3 game.
I get where you're going, but we're not getting that screwed on TV coverage for that game. Friday games don't get relegated to ESPN3, and even if they did, Whit would have control over the time, and he would aim for 3:30 or later.
GT and UVA may be tied for the lead in the Coastal, but have faith, they both have challenges on the horizon. Not only do they have to play each other, GT has to play Clemson and UVA plays FSU. Beyond both still have to play UNC. GT/UNC could likely end up a shootout with both teams capitalizing on poor defenses. We still get to take our swing at UVA too and we know our boys will be up for that game. My thoughts are both GT and UVA lose to their respective challenging Atlantic Coast opponent (Clemson and FSU respectively) and GT will lose to UVA and UNC.
Not worried at all. Lets take care of business ourselves.
They are capable of losing to Duke, UNC, Pitt, UVA, NC St. and Clemson.
If we win out I am confident in our chances.
If we take care of business in these next two Thursday game, we should be able to run the table.
As for GT, I am not too worried about them. they will lose at least 2 ACC games imho