As is tradition around these parts, I exchanged questions and answers with Chas of Pitt Blather. Pitt Blather is an independent website that's been providing Pitt coverage August, 2003. Chas' answers to my questions are below, my answers to his questions are on Pitt Blather.
Is the formula for stopping Pitt's offense loading the box, corralling James Conner and forcing Chad Voytik to win the game with his arm? Have you seen anything from Voytik and the passing game that makes you hopeful he can pass over an 8-man box?
It's a formula that makes sense. Since losing the starting center near the end of the BC game, I think the coaching staff has gotten a little too cute with shuffling players on the O-line. There was less of that in the Virginia game, and the running game noticeably improved.
That said, any team would be foolish not to make sure that Pitt has to throw the ball. I would also add, force Chad Voytik to throw more to the middle of the field. He is trying to avoid making mistakes, and prefers to throw to the sidelines, where a sailing pass will land out of bounds. He has had most (all? almost all?) of his interceptions throwing in the middle of the field, when the pass sails. He is not a tall QB, and prefers to throw on a roll out -- where he can see a lane easier. In the pocket, he has the bad tendency to go backwards and throw off the back foot rather than step into a throw. Again, the offensive line hasn't been stellar, but he isn't helping in those cases.
Pitt's ranked 4th nationally in total defense and 17th in scoring defense. S&P ranks Pitt as having the 51st best defense. Is Pitt's defense among the nationally elite or has the unit had success against some inferior offenses? What's the unit's strength and weakness?
Linebackers and safeties are where the best players can be found.
It is a solid team against the run, but it is especially susceptible to passing attacks for two reasons.
The secondary is woefully thin. It wasn't deep before the season started, but one player suspended for the year and another quitting the team made it precarious.
The defensive line just has not been able to generate any pressure on quarterbacks. Combine the two with a defensive philosophy that is geared towards being aggressive and the killer has been the big play. Iowa. IOWA! torched Pitt several times with big pass plays. That goes against every Kirk Ferentz narrative, but it actually happened.
Same with Virginia and Mike London. Not the natural state of things.
After three straight losses (20-24 to Iowa, 10-21 to Akron, 19-24 at Virginia), is Pitt looking at Thursday night's matchup as a crossroads game? Close losses to 5-1 Iowa and 4-2 Virginia are nothing to laugh at, but what the hell happened against Akron?
I hate putting so much more pressure on the game, but yeah. This just about puts the season in the balance. At least from the fan perspective.
Lose this game and Pitt is 1-3 at home (0-3 against 1-A teams). A 4 game losing streak. And outside of the Syracuse game, no reason Pitt wouldn't be the dog in all the remaining games. It wouldn't be another treading water/mediocre/BBVA Bowl-esque season. It would be a noticeable step backwards when the belief coming into the season was that this was the bridge year to a higher expectation 2016.
Akron was a debacle. I can't even explain it, except to say that Pitt just didn't take them seriously and paid the price.
It has been pointed out that if Pitt had at least taken care of Akron, things wouldn't seem so dire. Iowa and Virginia have been a bit better than expected, so the losses wouldn't seem so bad. Especially since Pitt played well for at least a half in both games. Unfortunately, they sandwiched a poor second half versus Iowa and a painful first half against Virginia around complete shitfest of four quarters with Akron. 8 consecutive bad quarters, and three straight losses later this where things stand.
With border foe West Virginia, and in-state rival Penn State not annual matchups, is Virginia Tech the closest thing to a yearly rival for Pitt?
I guess. Not to diminish the game, but realistically Pitt simply doesn't have a real on-the-field rival at this time. I don't want to pretend or insist that it is so, when it really isn't. That is the reality of things. It sucks, but if there is any ambition to be a national player in college football you smile politely and chase the money in realignment.
You can't mandate rivalries with a trophy (River City Rivalry Trophy -- Cinci-Pitt). You can't dictate one simply because of geography (a number of Pitt fans wanted to make Maryland that game when the ACC move was announced -- no, no not at all because of the Baltimore Ravens-Pittsburgh Steelers -- it was all about proximity. Really.) You can't even claim one because of the number of times played (Syracuse and Pitt have played 69 times and neither side can muster real hate on the football side of things).
They can form. They can be created over time, but they take time. They take real stakes for both sides. Pitt has screwed up some VT seasons about a decade ago. It's a nice start. But it will take both teams playing for something going forward. That hasn't happened, and it sure doesn't look like it will start this year.
Until there is some sort of real continuity of playing Penn State annually, Pitt won't have a real annual rivalry game.
What's your prediction for Thursday?
After all that, I'm still going to believe in the Pitt upset. The running game comes alive and there is just enough passing to keep the Hokies off-balance. I'm counting on Michael Brewer to be a slightly worse version of 2012 Logan Thomas and keep the ACC Coastal Wheel of Destiny in motion.
Pitt 27 VT 21
Comments
I haven't watched much of Pitt except the BC game, where they looked good. That RB is really good. I would have felt really really confident going into this game if Juice and Trey hadn't gotten injured, or at least if one of them hadn't. The run game is probably going to suck again. I predict only 120 yards on the ground at most against Pitt. The pass game will hopefully compensate to elevate us to a win.
This x 1000000000.
Short passes might be best answer for Hokies to supplement the running game, Pitt always scares me.
Agree. Its our bread and butter with Brewer and we need to stick to it (especially with our RB issues).
Just what exactly is it about Heinz Field that so confounds the VT Coaching staff? I don't believe we have won a game yet while playing there against Pitt. Do we need to call a voodoo witch doctor and sacrifice a wahoo...?
The Giant Ketchup bottle on top of their score board always distracted Curt Newsome, making him hungry for hot dogs with ketchup.
leading to him thinking about this
I refuse to believe in it. A stadium half full of disgruntled Steelers fans isn't a concern.
Like Frank said, they are a physical team. The Walt Harris model was to max protect and send his 2 NFL receivers deep and take his chances. That worked a few times. In 2003, if the PI was called on the Justin Hamilton pass, we win that game. That's not the stadium, that's just a bad call.
In 2012, we lost because we sucked. Before that game, we thought we were the 2011 era Hokies. Now, looking back at the crapfest of 20 or so games that came after that loss, it's clear to see that we just were entering an era of not being very good.
I don't think that's the case this week. I believe this VT team is quite good. We gave away two games due to lack of focus. We repeatedly have made stupid mistakes that are correctable. I think we will see it Thursday night. This is a good VT team. This is a Pitt team trying to find themselves.
Your last paragraph is the best concise description for this game. I agree with that.
Also, Chas doesn't seem too positive with his responses. His tone shows his frustration level is pretty high. Pitt will come out fighting at first. If we can hit them in the mouth real good early in the game they will be on their heels and then we can take advantage to get a comfortable lead. But VT must execute early and often.
Pitt fans are rarely "positive" with their responses on a whole.
Pitt Athletics have made cynics and 'glass half empty' out of many fans. We come back though, because 'someday'.
When I spoke with Foster during my interview over the summer he told me the coaches warned the players they were going to play a Pitt team (in 2012) that was looking to kick their ass and earn some respect after losing to a I-AA team. Team didn't heed that message. Hope this year isn't a repeat.
Kyle Fuller left the game Pitt early with an injury in 2012. I've said it a thousand times, VT was a much better team when Kyle played and was healthy.
Depending upon when one thinks he finally started to get healthy in 2012 (I picked the FSU game), VT's record was 29-5 when he played healthy from 2010-2013 and was 8-12 when he DNP or played while injured (particularly in 2012).
Even if you take out his frosh year in 2010 (even though he started 6 games that year and VT went 6-0), VT's record was 23-5 when healthy and 8-9 when not healthy.
Every single "bad" loss from 2010-2013 occurred when Fuller was not on the field or played while injured.
Which shows, among other things, how much Bud Foster's scheme depends on everyone doing his job. If one guy is not 100% the whole system is at risk.
Bingo! And because of Fuller's versatility, he had the unique ability to make almost everybody around him better -- and thus able to focus on just their individual responsibilities.
I think the x-factor here is if they use Conner at DE and he wears down as the game goes along. I think the game comes down to the 4th and I'm hoping the extra snaps at DE with the OL pushing on him and chipping him will have him gassed and slowed. I think we pull away late, 35-24.
Also Dadi and Ekanem will have a sack contest with Dadi winning 4-3.
I'm starting to buy into our defense more than that. At the beginning of the year, I was quite concerned about the LB's and the DL depth. The LB's have really played much better than I expected and the DL depth, which will be tested even more this week, has supplied some backups who have performed well (who isn't excited to see some more Ricky Walker this week?)
So I'm having a hard time seeing Pitt get to 20 unless Brewer gives it to them. I'm thinking this is a Joey Slye game and we hit 4 FG's and win 26-13.
Me too, but Pitt.
Which isn't out of the realm of possibility unfortunately. So far it's likely that he'll at least give them 3-7. I hope he turns a corner though and has his first int free game.
I think Connor at DE is just a gimmick/diversion. If he plays more than a few plays at DE, I'd be very surprised.
Not a gimmick or a diversion. If our offense was remotely better (QB Voytik a better thrower, RB Chris James - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UU4VGXLHj18 - more experienced and a bit bigger, O-Line play better) he would be playing defense full time.
Welcome Pitt fan. Question for you, are any of the fans concerned with the amount Chryst is putting on Conner. I remember watching the end of the BC game thinking that there was no reason to have Conner in there and beyond the injury risk, putting the extra miles on the centerpiece of the offense in garbage team seemed like a bad call to me.
I'd love for this game to be a blowout but I feel like a 4 quarter slugfest is much more likely.
Ohhhhhh yessss,
Many of us have been concerned / are concerned. I know there have been times where I'm talking to my TV 'put in chris james... PUT IN CHRIS JAMES' towards the ends of our early season blowouts.
Or anyone really, we have a few other servicable backs that would have been fine.
As for Conner on thursday... he's had 2 weeks to prepare, hopefully he is well rested.
And I bet you'd love for this game to be a blowout! Unfortunately, I agree that the God of Slogg will win out. (Pro Tip: throw the ball against our secondary, they are... ok I guess.)
He's had 2 weeks but Chryst is saying he's going to use him at DE. Getting pushed on by a 300 pounder and/or chipped by a TE/FB/RB can't help in the 4th quarter, when we both think he's going to be needed.
What are you thoughts on Chryst? I liked the hire when it was first made, but its starting to seem that he might be a bit out of his element as a head coach at a power 5 right now.
I really like him. I'm probably one of the few who would say that, but it's ok. He's the type of guy I like to see as a coach, not the Todd Graham - James Franklin type.
This is his first head coaching job so I give him some slack, but I honestly feel that our coaching staff lacks in some places... and is not likely to be fixed due to a tight budget in the athletics department. It's hard to rationalize that statement, but that's the 'feeling' I get... Pitt is one of the few schools which is not required / does not report any financial data on it's athletic department. I would like to think we're one of the few schools that doesn't LOSE a lot of money through athletics, we are pretty conservative and are for sure not ever going to make the mistakes Maryland made.
It does mean that we can't get the personnel I think Chryst would like to have the most, particularly on D, so we make due with what we have.
He comes off as a good, fair, stable man... and to be honest, that is what Pitt needs and the Administration wants.
I appreciate the banter as it's always nice to get some perspective from the other side. Good luck tonight (but not enough to win, haha) in the 4 quarter slugfest that we all believe it will be.
That 2012 Pitt game might have been Thomas' worst. If any QB has to be a slightly worse version of that for Pitt to get a win, I like our chances.
As always, Turnovers will define the winner. Brewer and play calling will make or break VT.
I think being able to dictate pace and maintaining possession are an even bigger key this week. Unfortunately, we may not have our horses at RB to do that.
But on the comment about the strength of their defense being up the middle with LB and S, I think I. Ford and Phillips need to get some easy catches early and get a chance to make a play. If we can spread them out with those two threats on the outside, I think you'll see the middle open up a little bit more. It would sure be nice if we could complement that with a serviceable running game at the least.
I thought exactly the same thing. This is a game where the pass can set up the run, rather than the opposite. But they need to be quick passes and they all need to go to guys on our team.
I hear a jet sweep a-la deon newsome coming
With Ryan Malleck in there! When he is playing our offense is much better (blocking and pass catching).
I like how Chas basically told us how bad Pitt is and then picked them to win. Obviously, I disagree, not only because I'm a huge homer, but I just think we are much better. I realize this hasn't mattered in the past, but we've only played Pitt twice in games that any of these players can remember. As was said in the above comments, 2012 was a disaster, we could barely get to bowl eligibility, and last year with glaring flaws we beat Pitt convincingly, even if the score wasn't terribly impressive.
I think we win because:
a) Our defense gets a ton of pressure, we will force their QB into mistakes.
b) We have defended rushes that don't come from QBs extremely well. We're only giving up 64 rush yards per game to non-QBs. James Conner playing some DE will only help our chances of shutting down their run game.
c) Brewer is probably the healthiest he's been since the OSU game. He was hurting bad in our losses, and we lost both of those games in the final seconds. He was sharp against UNC for the most part and I think him feeling better had a lot to do with it.
d) Our talented young guys are growing up. We have 6 games under our belt and have now had a bye to reflect on the good and the bad. The mistakes should become fewer and fewer.
e) We have capable back-ups at RB. As much as JC doesn't look the part of a star VT running back, he can help us on Thursday. I'm also excited to see what Joel and Sam can do with an increased workload. I'm mad Marshawn is likely out, but I think we'll still be able to move the ball enough on the ground.
f) We have played well and focused on the road the past two seasons (6-1). Only loss is to BC.
g) We exercised a lot of Pitt demons with the win last year.
Simply put, I think Brewer plays a really good game, and the defense shows up big time. If that happens, we win.
Despite all that, I am still scared because Pitt.
What makes you think Brewer was hurt in the ECU and GT games? I thought so too, but whenever I mentioned it, no one else seemed to think so. I had no evidence other than his play, which could have been affected by lots of other factors. I would feel better about his overall performance this season if I felt there was a valid medical excuse for his mistakes in those two games.
Guess you didn't read the middle part of the thread :-)
Someone mentioned that Brewer puked during the first quarter against ECU after a hard hit. I have no evidence of that, but I did see him getting some work done on his pads around the abdomen, looks like they were strapping on some additional protection for his core. He was getting beat up pretty bad during the OSU and ECU games.
The problem with his gunslinger mentality is that he'll make a lot of execution-dependent throws. Those are decisions where it'll look like either a great one or a terrible one depending entirely on where he puts the ball. We saw him make those decisions look good by completing those throws in the first two games, but then fell off after that (along with a couple just bad decisions). It's harder to make those throws when you're beat up, as I am absolutely sure he has been.
The Brewer health thing is based primarily on watching him get beat to hell at OSU and hit hard early in the ECU game. He was hurting, it seemed clear to me. While tentative, he looked much better the last two weeks, and we just had a bye. That's what was behind that statement.
I think now is a good time for him to start turning things around. He's gotten more experience in the system (Lefty said that the last pick against GT was the 12th time Brewer's ever repped that play in his life, for example) and he's had the opportunity to rest up and unwind a bit. Here's to hoping we see a healthy, confident QB taking the field for the Hokies on Thursday.
I agree that he was beat up after the OSU game, but I saw something disconcerting in the 2nd half of the UNC game as well: he's lost some trust in his protection. Through the first 5 games out protection wasn't that bad. We still have given up less than 2 sacks a game, which is pretty good. But against UNC's rather crappy defense, our OL looked bewildered in the 2nd half and couldn't protect him. Brewer had trouble keeping his eyes downfield and not on the rush and threw more off his back foot than normal. He made a great play or two on that last long drive, but I became concerned that he's worrying too much about the pass rush now.
Fortunately, pass rush is not Pitt's strong suit. Hopefully we can keep him upright and let his playmakers do the work. But keep an eye out on how he handles pressure.
It's worth noting that, after watching the Pitt/UVA game again tonight, it looks like this can go both ways on Thursday. After getting hit a couple times, Voytik quickly lost trust in his protection and I started seeing him drift back/out of the pocket and throw off his back foot without setting his feet, instead of stepping up in the pocket (which his OT was positioned perfectly to allow him to do a couple times). I think if we get to him, he's gonna have all kinds of trouble seeing the field well and making quick, confident decisions.
You're not alone in that observation of Brewer playing hurt. I noticed that his movements when rolling out of the pocket in the ECU game were mechanical. Maybe stiff at the joints like the rusty tinman in the wizard of oz. Either way, I noticed it in the 1st quarter. In the OSU game, he definately moved more gracefully, more fluid.
ha, I'm an idiot.
This game is a bit weird because I can't quite get a read on the mojo.
Pitt is due a win b/c of their recent slide, and clearly has had VT's number at home, yet VT is playing great on the road and is due a win away in the series.
VT has had some hellacious injuries, but performed well vs unc and their highly-ranked offense, but struggled vs BC and Williams last year.
Pitt has a sophomore QB who started the season well, but has never faced Foster and a Dadi/Ekanem pass rush.
It's a toss up.
I need to invent a 'Mojo-meter' to get a better take on the game.
From Chas' answers and comments from their fans over there, I'm hearing a lot of things like "Voytik can't see over the line", or "Voytik has to roll out for a passing lane", or "Voytik has a lot of batted balls". This sounds similar to comments about Brewer earlier in the season. Is this a significant factor for our matchups/scheme, or what the D may have seen in practice (either D)?
During the UVA game Voytik had a ton of batted balls at the line and he just didn't seem very comfortable in the pocket in general. He's been much more accurate this year when on the move/scrambling, that's usually when you'll see guys other than Boyd get involved.
If he wants to roll out he has to choose between Dadi and Ekannibal. If those guys play contain the way they did against UNC, Voytik won't be rolling out.
Pitt fans seem a bit...pessimistic about the game tonight. I do like the prediction of 345 screaming fans though.
http://www.pittblather.com/2014/10/16/virginia-tech-predictions/