By the (Advanced) Numbers: Pittsburgh

A fellow Hokie and I made the 2-hour journey from State College to Pittsburgh for our last matchup at Heinz Field. We drank bourbon as we crossed the bridge to the stadium on foot, ate / used the one-way mirror urinals at Jerome Bettis' Grill and watched the most painful Hokie game in recent memory. An otherwise good defense had multiple inexplicable lapses in coverage and tackling ability. A bad offense led by Logan Thomas demonstrated, in extreme fashion, everything his fans believed (He has no protection!) and detractors lamented (How could he throw that ball right to a defender?!).

Tech returns to Heinz field Thursday night hoping to shake its historically bad performances there. More importantly, will we see a game like 2012 where all of our worst fears come together in one dumpster fire of a game — Brewer interceptions, undisciplined penalties, inability to establish a running game — or will we build on a solid game against North Carolina and avoid a tailspin?

Let's first start with the computer rankings for each team:

Clearly most computers believe Virginia Tech to be the better team by 25-30 ranking spots. However, away from the ends of the ranking spectrum there is not a huge gap between teams that are that far apart, and the Panthers playing at home. Predictions are split on the outcome with about 2/3s favoring Virginia Tech:

The odds of a 2.5-point favorite winning are 55.5%.

Now let's look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages before diving deeper.

By S&P+, Pittsburgh enjoys a slightly better offense while Virginia Tech has a slightly larger advantage on defense.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.

Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when Brewer and company have the ball?

My, what a difference opponent adjustments make. Passing downs, which unadjusted have been a Hokie advantage for most of the season, suddenly turn to a large opponent advantage. It turns out we've played multiple teams that don't have very good passing down defense. Given that our offense is below average, we should at least be happy to have a slight advantage on standard downs and passing. That won't happen very frequently with our offense this year.

Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Tech offense versus the Pitt defense.

Across the board we are less capable than their defense, with the biggest disadvantage coming on the most important measure: offensive efficiency.

The Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. Minnesota
2. Fresno State
3. Utah

The Pittsburgh defense is closest in personality to:

1. UConn
2. Hawai'i
3. South Alabama (Raise your hand if you knew they were even FBS)

When Pitt Has the Ball

Again, look at pass-run comparisons first:

It's no secret that Pitt's offense is determined by running the ball and they have enjoyed much success thus far — in fact they are the No. 1 team in the country in rushing S&P+. Stopping their offense requires the beat-up Hokie line — without Luther Maddy — to stop the Panther running game on early downs and force them into passing situations where they are at an enormous disadvantage. Although they are schematically quite different and our defense must play them accordingly, this is superficially like playing Georgia Tech. If you stop the run on early down and force them to pass, they are considerably less dangerous. As for personality traits:

Much like Tech, Pitt is at a disadvantage on offense across all traits. The biggest is also offensive efficiency where the disadvantage is even larger than Loeffler's.

The Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. LSU
2. Oklahoma State
3. Florida

The Pittsburgh offense is closest in personality to:

1. Idaho
2. New Mexico State
3. Air Force

Special Teams

FEI now includes special teams ratings — for each I am directly comparing the kicking team's ability with that type of kick against the return team's ability to return it. Field goals are not adjusted by defense as it is questionable how much a defense can impact field goal ability other than blocks; however, field goal abilities are plotted relative to average.

First we will look at the Hokie's kicking units:

Thus far we have been slightly below average kicking field goals but have a slight advantage on punting and kickoffs. As for the Panther kicking units versus our return units:

Pittsburgh has been great on field goal efficiency thus far (8th nationally), but they lack any advantage when punting and kicking off. Perhaps this is the week that a Hokie special-teamer breaks one for six.

Who To Watch Out For

1. It's tempting to just list man-beast running back James Conner multiple times. Instead, I'll refrain and just list him first. While his 5.6 YPC isn't elite, he has the second most carries in the country with 156, and is fifth in the country in YPG at 145.7. He will pound the rock repeatedly.
2. Guess what? Pitt has said they'll use RB James Conner as DE James Conner in certain pass rush situations. Maybe this is just a distraction and won't happen, but in case it does your No. 2 player to watch is DE James Conner.
3. RB James Conner is 250 pounds of hard-to-tackle RB. Watch out for him.

Statistical Key to the Game

To stop the James Conner attack, it is imperative that Bud's defense forces the Panthers into passing situations by stopping him on early downs. Pittsburgh won't let second-and-long force the pass often, so my statistical key to the game will be average third down distance for the Pitt offense. Anything 5 or above and we will keep them from putting too many points on the board.

My Prediction

I predict that I eat and drink too much at Jerome Bettis' Grill before the game, and that I will rep the best Hokie website out there with my The Key Play shirt at Heinz Field. I also predict that if you're nearby and have bourbon to offer, I will come to your tailgate and drink some of your bourbon with nothing to offer in return.

Also, I predict that just as we got the "big game" monster off our back against OSU, we get the Heinz Field demon off our back and don't put together a caricature of our worst fears like we did in 2012. I predict James Conner pounds us and frustrates us, but ultimately can't do quite enough.

Virginia Tech 24, Pitt 20

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.