The way things are going right now, we better hope we are tied at 3-losses with only one other team (a team we beat). That would also mean we actually need to play offense during the last few games. Based on results so far, I am a little concerned.
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or, you know, 2 or 3 teams we beat. Or 2 teams we beat and 1 we lost to, where one of the 2 we beat is also 2-1 within the group. The point is, we almost certainly lose any tiebreakers that aren't solved by pure head-to-head, but there are a number of scenarios that would get us there. Not that there's much of a chance of us even making it to 5-3, but that's a conversation for another thread.
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FSU, Clemson, and Louisville each have 4 wins in conference, so as soon as any of those teams wins another game, any 4 loss team is eliminated without resorting to complicated tiebreaking scenarios. Since FSU and Louisville play each other on Thursday, one of those teams is guaranteed to have 5 wins.
(Also, both NC State and WF are 0-4 in division as well as conference, so they wouldn't be able to win any meaningful tiebreakers.)
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Sarcastica! Both VT and Wake Forest are bottom of the conference. Maybe they both should meet at the end of the season to see whos the ACC most disappointed team.
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Yeah, all we have to do is play completely the opposite of how we've played in the first 2/3rds of the season, while everyone else in conference plays almost completely the opposite of how they've played in the first 2/3rds of the season. Then we might win the tiebreaker. If we're really lucky.
Not far fetched at all.
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This is the ACC Coastal, after all. Anything's possible. Heck, UNC last year started 1-5, and went 5-1 in the back half. We had no team controlling their own destiny in mid November.
I'm not being overly optimistic here with maroon shades on, it's just that we've seen stranger things in this division. And I know that there were a couple of times in the mid to late 2000's that we thought we were out only to get back in when someone else lost.
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We were winning ten games a season back in the late 2000's. We'll be really fortunate to win 6 games this regular season. Pretending the two have any similarity is humorous. Folks can bail water on the Titanic all they want, but all we have left this season is the UVa game.
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I disagree with you (but I didn't downvote you since that is your opinion)
For me, just beating UVA and keeping the Cup in Blacksburg is not a successful season. I would rather go 11-1 and lose to UVA and have a chance at the ACC Championship and some upper tier bowl or maybe playoffs now than go 1-11 (or some mediorce/losing season) and be a laughing stock on national primetime season while the lone win is against UVA.
Just my opinion as well, but....
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Yes if you play them at the end of year, play them earlier on or mid way at the latest and you can win your way back to the top. I know we never play them early, but it still could happend if we did. But either way, I'd take it. LOLUVA fans talking shit about football doesnt faze me, its actually quite comical.
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They are 2-2 in conference. Their only two wins are against NC State and Wake Forest, the only two ACC teams that have been officially eliminated from contention.
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And their 2 losses came to Pitt, who beat us, and Clemson, who would definitely beat us. And their M.O. is a great defense and run game, and our run D is suddenly highly suspect, and our O is just terrible. I get the feeling we will be all-but-eliminated from Coastal contention after next week.
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I feel the exact opposite. Boston College is a terrible matchup for our defense, especially since its dinged up. Brewer and Loeffler haven't shown anything as of late that make me think VT can keep up on the scoreboard. I think the Eagles will be able to lean on their ground and pound attack and leave Blacksburg with the win.
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That BC offense against USC hasn't been around in a while. 263 total yards vs Clemson, 367 against Wake.
I agree that as a matchup, they are everything we don't want right now. But they are in the midst of their own struggles. I think we rally this week. 27-14.
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I'm going near opposite and calling it 24-10 BC. I don't have any faith in the offense right now and our defense vs. their running game doesn't favor us, I don't think. The only bonus is that in the USCw game I watched, they appeared to run a lot of option looks, which our defense knows. The downside is that they're meaner and nastier on the OL than we are on the DL.
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Exactly. We often talk about a "bend but don't break" defense. Well, teams can follow that model on offense against the Hokies as well. After watching the Thursday night debacle, if I'm coaching BC, I MIGHT throw one pass against the Hokies. I would run it all day long. Sure, you might tackle me a couple of times in the backfield, but all I have to do is wait for you to throw three screen passes and then punt the ball, then my offense is back on the field to wear down your defense for another 10 minutes or so. Rinse. Repeat. I win.
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The only problem with this is usually teams get better as the season progresses. If anyone sees any progression in this team right now, they're sadly mistaken. If we can't play any more in sync than we did on a Thursday night rivalry game at home against a team with one conference win going into it, what makes us think there is any hope of winning any games remaining on the schedule? Love the optimism and everything but this team is going backwards in almost every category.
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If we play like we did against OSU and UNC, we'll win. If we play like we did in any of the other games, we'll lose. Tough matchup, I hope we are fired up.
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Interestingly enough, because the Coastal is so bunched up, I don't think a 4th loss would automatically eliminate us. I mean, our odds would be so slim, they'd almost be none. And maybe we would be out by virtue of potential tiebreakers. But I'm not going to try to figure out a hypothetical 7 way tie at 4-4.
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I think another loss in the division would eliminate VT. There may be a way to back in with a loss to either BC or Wake, but I'd have to think the chances of that actually happening are astronomical
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Our next divisional game is Duke, currently 2-1. If they win their next two games (Pitt and Syracuse), they would come in at 4-1. A win would put them at 5-1, which is better than we can achieve.
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Sure... and I could end up in bed with Heidi Klum and Kate Upton tonight as well
Having hope is one thing. Irrational hope is another, and isn't quite as healthy. Lets just take the rest of the season one game at a time. At this point, bowl eligibility would be a welcome event come December.
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So for those that are still interested in either being optimistic, or just seeing how crazy #goacc can be, here's what would help VT this weekend:
-Duke at Pitt (noon, ESPNU) and UNC at Miami (12:30, ACC): we need all of those teams to lose, but we need more losses from Pitt and Miami.
-UVA at GT (3:30, ESPNU): we need GT to lose.
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Comments
http://www.theacc.com/#!/page/ACC-Football-Championship-Tiebreakers
It's great that you are being positive.....but I don't think so. I am just hoping that we beat the Hoos.....
The only truth in this wheel is that Maryland has about the same chance of winning the Coastal as we do right now.
The way things are going right now, we better hope we are tied at 3-losses with only one other team (a team we beat). That would also mean we actually need to play offense during the last few games. Based on results so far, I am a little concerned.
or, you know, 2 or 3 teams we beat. Or 2 teams we beat and 1 we lost to, where one of the 2 we beat is also 2-1 within the group. The point is, we almost certainly lose any tiebreakers that aren't solved by pure head-to-head, but there are a number of scenarios that would get us there. Not that there's much of a chance of us even making it to 5-3, but that's a conversation for another thread.
Just doing a rough scenario, and just figuring out how we can gain control of our destiny.
Teams that beat us:
-GT, Miami, and Pitt (2 losses each) need to lose 2 games.
Team that we beat:
-UNC (2 losses) needs to lose 1 game. Since we have head to head over them, they can be equal to our loss total.
Teams that we haven't played yet:
-Duke (1 loss) needs to lose an extra game, plus lose to us.
-UVA (2 losses) just needs to lose to us.
The sad thing is that we might need to root for UVA to beat GT and Miami.
EDIT: to adjust following GT/Pitt game.
Good analysis.
I prefer the years we go 7-1 or 8-0. It makes it so much less stressful.
Wake Forest can still win the Atlantic too.
Actually, they can't. They're 0-4 in conference.
FSU, Clemson, and Louisville each have 4 wins in conference, so as soon as any of those teams wins another game, any 4 loss team is eliminated without resorting to complicated tiebreaking scenarios. Since FSU and Louisville play each other on Thursday, one of those teams is guaranteed to have 5 wins.
(Also, both NC State and WF are 0-4 in division as well as conference, so they wouldn't be able to win any meaningful tiebreakers.)
Sarcastica! Both VT and Wake Forest are bottom of the conference. Maybe they both should meet at the end of the season to see whos the ACC most disappointed team.
Man, when I first read this I laughed, then I cried, then I laughed, then I cried.......
I actually don't think it's that far fetched to win out. Start this week with a win over BC and see where we go from there
Yeah, all we have to do is play completely the opposite of how we've played in the first 2/3rds of the season, while everyone else in conference plays almost completely the opposite of how they've played in the first 2/3rds of the season. Then we might win the tiebreaker. If we're really lucky.
Not far fetched at all.
This is the ACC Coastal, after all. Anything's possible. Heck, UNC last year started 1-5, and went 5-1 in the back half. We had no team controlling their own destiny in mid November.
I'm not being overly optimistic here with maroon shades on, it's just that we've seen stranger things in this division. And I know that there were a couple of times in the mid to late 2000's that we thought we were out only to get back in when someone else lost.
We were winning ten games a season back in the late 2000's. We'll be really fortunate to win 6 games this regular season. Pretending the two have any similarity is humorous. Folks can bail water on the Titanic all they want, but all we have left this season is the UVa game.
very sad we have gotten to that point where beating LOLUVA will make it a successful season.... ugh.
Any season is successful that keeps the Cup in Blacksburg.
I disagree with you (but I didn't downvote you since that is your opinion)
For me, just beating UVA and keeping the Cup in Blacksburg is not a successful season. I would rather go 11-1 and lose to UVA and have a chance at the ACC Championship and some upper tier bowl or maybe playoffs now than go 1-11 (or some mediorce/losing season) and be a laughing stock on national primetime season while the lone win is against UVA.
Just my opinion as well, but....
Problem with going 11-1 and losing to UVA is that then UVA keeps you out of the playoffs. Wanna hear that from LOLUVA for a year?
Yes if you play them at the end of year, play them earlier on or mid way at the latest and you can win your way back to the top. I know we never play them early, but it still could happend if we did. But either way, I'd take it. LOLUVA fans talking shit about football doesnt faze me, its actually quite comical.
I didn't say anything about winning the division.
And your tone was dickish.
So you think it is logical to expect us to play exactly the opposite of how we've played the first 2/3rds of the season. Okay, that explains a lot.
There is nothing logical about college football.
Fixed that for ya. Have a leg!
I was looking at BC's record and schedule.
They are 2-2 in conference. Their only two wins are against NC State and Wake Forest, the only two ACC teams that have been officially eliminated from contention.
And their 2 losses came to Pitt, who beat us, and Clemson, who would definitely beat us. And their M.O. is a great defense and run game, and our run D is suddenly highly suspect, and our O is just terrible. I get the feeling we will be all-but-eliminated from Coastal contention after next week.
We will beat BC by two scores.
I feel the exact opposite. Boston College is a terrible matchup for our defense, especially since its dinged up. Brewer and Loeffler haven't shown anything as of late that make me think VT can keep up on the scoreboard. I think the Eagles will be able to lean on their ground and pound attack and leave Blacksburg with the win.
That BC offense against USC hasn't been around in a while. 263 total yards vs Clemson, 367 against Wake.
I agree that as a matchup, they are everything we don't want right now. But they are in the midst of their own struggles. I think we rally this week. 27-14.
I'm going near opposite and calling it 24-10 BC. I don't have any faith in the offense right now and our defense vs. their running game doesn't favor us, I don't think. The only bonus is that in the USCw game I watched, they appeared to run a lot of option looks, which our defense knows. The downside is that they're meaner and nastier on the OL than we are on the DL.
Exactly. We often talk about a "bend but don't break" defense. Well, teams can follow that model on offense against the Hokies as well. After watching the Thursday night debacle, if I'm coaching BC, I MIGHT throw one pass against the Hokies. I would run it all day long. Sure, you might tackle me a couple of times in the backfield, but all I have to do is wait for you to throw three screen passes and then punt the ball, then my offense is back on the field to wear down your defense for another 10 minutes or so. Rinse. Repeat. I win.
You are 100% on target.
The irony is that is the gameplan Beamer likes to use!!!
Live by the sword, die by the sword!
Just win.
The only things that I care about now are:
Beating uva.
WINNING a bowl game (any bowl game)
Bringing in a great recruiting class.
The only problem with this is usually teams get better as the season progresses. If anyone sees any progression in this team right now, they're sadly mistaken. If we can't play any more in sync than we did on a Thursday night rivalry game at home against a team with one conference win going into it, what makes us think there is any hope of winning any games remaining on the schedule? Love the optimism and everything but this team is going backwards in almost every category.
OH God, not this again!
I hope every ACC coastal team goes 4-4, then VT goes to the championship game and beats FSU.
I hope we finally get jetpacks for that frustrating Monday morning commute.
I hope Bigfoot is real!
If we play like we did against OSU and UNC, we'll win. If we play like we did in any of the other games, we'll lose. Tough matchup, I hope we are fired up.
Got my weekly wrap up complete: http://cfarena.blogspot.com/2014/10/week-9-wrap-up.html
Interestingly enough, because the Coastal is so bunched up, I don't think a 4th loss would automatically eliminate us. I mean, our odds would be so slim, they'd almost be none. And maybe we would be out by virtue of potential tiebreakers. But I'm not going to try to figure out a hypothetical 7 way tie at 4-4.
I think another loss in the division would eliminate VT. There may be a way to back in with a loss to either BC or Wake, but I'd have to think the chances of that actually happening are astronomical
Our next divisional game is Duke, currently 2-1. If they win their next two games (Pitt and Syracuse), they would come in at 4-1. A win would put them at 5-1, which is better than we can achieve.
Sure... and I could end up in bed with Heidi Klum and Kate Upton tonight as well
Having hope is one thing. Irrational hope is another, and isn't quite as healthy. Lets just take the rest of the season one game at a time. At this point, bowl eligibility would be a welcome event come December.
All I really want is to see our young players progressing and keep growing, including Bucky
At this point, just get to 6-6 so we can keep the bowl streak alive.
So for those that are still interested in either being optimistic, or just seeing how crazy #goacc can be, here's what would help VT this weekend:
-Duke at Pitt (noon, ESPNU) and UNC at Miami (12:30, ACC): we need all of those teams to lose, but we need more losses from Pitt and Miami.
-UVA at GT (3:30, ESPNU): we need GT to lose.