By the (Advanced) Numbers was on vacation last week — how'd we do? It was a Thursday night game at home so I'm sure we dominated, but did the second string get some experience? Which quarter did Marshawn break 100 in? Our D probably totally humiliated Duke Johnson. It was classic Thursday night Lane Stadium for sure.
Well time to turn the attention to the next victim, Boston College.
Let's first start with the computer rankings for each team:
Well, BC, before you start thinking that you've finally reached VT's level you should know that instead, the Hokies just sunk to yours. Get over yourself. It's not all about the Eagles you know.
Given that parity the computer predictions aren't too surprising, with most centered around the spread and slightly favoring Virginia Tech:
That spread is sort of strange after what was surely a beat down of Miami just last week. Hmm. The odds of a 3-point favorite winning are 57.1%.
Now let's look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages before diving deeper.
By S&P+, Pittsburgh Boston College enjoys a slightly better offense while Virginia Tech has a slightly larger advantage on defense.
When Virginia Tech Has the Ball
Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.
Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Loeffler offense has the ball?
Rant: The play calling needs to improve. The line needs to play as more of a unit. Brewer throws too many interceptions. The offense needs to establish the run. Recruiting needs to improve. And on and on. Everyone seems to have an opinion on what ails the offense. By F+ the Hokies are the 100th best offense in the country. One doesn't allow 99 other teams to have better offense because of one or two aspects that aren't clicking. This is a disaster of an offense, and significantly improving any of the aforementioned items is likely to only give the team a 10-20 spot jump.
The offense is not talented enough and is not executing on plays that aren't always the best calls. Everything is intertwined and an across-the-board improvement is needed but highly unlikely to happen in the middle of a season. The good news is that there is significant talent at WR, TE, and RB on this team and hope for an OL that changes coaches every full moon.
Please stop with the easy fixes diagnosed from the couch. The D is carrying this team to an overall No. 30 ranking, and the highest-ranked team with a worse offense is Houston at 78th. End rant.
Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Tech offense versus the BC defense.
When a team almost completely lacks explosiveness, methodical drives are about all one can hope for.
The Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:
- Kent State
- Louisville
- Louisiana-Monroe
Ponder that for a while.
The Boston College defense is closest in personality to:
- Louisiana-Monroe
- South Alabama
- Memphis
Not that the Hokies can take advantage of that.
When BC Has the Ball
Again, look at pass-run comparisons first:
Dear Eagles: Please attempt to pass the ball in this game as much as you'd like. Opposing teams are completing nearly 50% of their passes against Bud's defense, and in baseball that batting average would get you into the hall of fame! Also, avoid running the ball. I was out of the country for it, but you were probably watching the way we manhandled Duke Johnson and I don't think you want a piece of that.
As for personality traits:
Mostly a Hokie advantage, especially because the Eagles have a tendency to go 3-and-out (101st in the country at achieving a touchdown or at least one first down per drive).
The Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:
- UTSA
- Florida International
- Notre Dame
It should be noted that Bud's defense has a really unique personality that results in the "most similar" teams being much more similar in personality than effectiveness. The best of these three — Notre Dame at 30th — isn't even close to Virginia Tech at #2.
The Boston College offense is closest in personality to:
- UTEP
- North Carolina
- NC State
Again, a unique offensive personality is resulting in the most similar teams being much more similar on personality than ability.
Special Teams
First we will look at the Hokie's kicking units:
VT has the 7th-rated kickoff unit nationally, and BC has the 110th-best kickoff return unit. Tech kickoffs would be a good time to run to the fridge for another beer. As for the Eagle kicking units versus our return units:
Boston College has had 3 different kickers combine for 8-for-13 on field goals, which is less than optimal. Even Frank Beamer would have a hard time giving out a scholarship on that team.
Who To Watch Out For
- QB Tyler Murphy, not because of his pedestrian 117 passer rating (roughly equal to Brewer), but instead because he's had 113 runs on the season for 7.46 YPC and ugh, running QB.
- Senior LB Josh Keyes has 10.5 TFL on the season including 4 sacks.
- Running. QB.
Statistical Key to the Game
As with Pitt, stopping the run (especially from the QB) early is imperative as it forces Boston College into passing situations where our defense has a huge advantage. My statistical key in that game was average third down distance for the Panthers: On 3rd-and-5 or less, the Panthers only once did not convert; On 3rd-and-6 or more, only once did they convert.
In a similar game, I'm going to use that same statistic as the key to the game: Average 3rd-down distance for BC.
My Prediction
It's hard to predict Virginia Tech to win this game given the recent struggles and difficulty containing running QB's. But, I trust that with their backs in a corner the team will come out with something to prove and will pull off the win but in ugly fashion. I think the defense won't lose gap integrity like it previously did, and limits the BC rushing attack even though it will feel like we are getting gashed at times.
Virginia Tech 17, Boston College 14 and none of us feel any better after the win.
As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.
Comments
So if we're both compared to Louisiana-Monroe have our coaches been to any of their practices to see how their offense does against their defense? Hopefully pretty well.
I can totally see your prediction however I can also see it flipped and yes even with a win I dont' think we'll feel any better. However if the Hokies pull something out of the hat and completely dominate the game and we win big I would feel better....just cause I don't like BC not because I think we're "back on track".
I don't understand this comment at all. If the defense can stand up to the BC running game and the offense can get out of its own way and run a couple of sustained drives I will be thrilled with the progress. At this point if we play a decent game and lose by 3 I will be happy.
I understand what you're saying, but consider how truly sad it is that in the 9th game of the season, we are reduced to hoping for - the offense getting out of its own way and we run a couple of sustained drives - but still lose in a home game against a mediocre conference opponent.
Believe me, friend, I know EXACTLY how sad it is.
BC is gonna run, run, run at us. Our guys better be ready. Turning them to the pass will be very tough. Tackling technique will be key.
Thanks for that. I'll certainly be ready.
So this game will look a lot like the Louisiana-Monroe Spring Game? As long as we are on the winning side, well, I don't really care.
Let's improve, but most of all, let's just win!
I have watched film of the Louisiana-Monroe spring game....and the offense dominated the defense. We are in good shape here...
We should all aspire to be like Louisiana-Monroe...
That's dedication right there.
You watched video of the Louisiana-Monroe spring game?! I salute you, sir.
Uh...yeah...absolutely....substitute "lied about watching" for "have watched" and that is an accurate statement.
So some metrics paint BC's defense in a very favorable light. Some do not. It's worth noting that they have played some truly awful offenses.
Are they good or not?
There's literally only 20 or so in the nation worse than ours.
If they do well against truly awful offense we are screwed.
Their F+ defense rating, which adjusts for opponent's offensive ability, is #31 so not too bad. Miami is #40.
The good news is that the Hokies have historically had good results against South Alabama...
Well, I for one will actually feel better if the Hokies win. Winning always trumps losing, so at least we would see improvement in that aspect.
I'm concerned about the weather at this point... Saturday is calling for swirling winds, high 30s/low 40s, and a lot of some sort of precip. That sounds like a day made for a team built like BC.
If we win 17-14 I think I will feel a lot better. If we lose 17-14 I think I will feel a lot better.
If we lose, I think every Hokie will feel worse except for you
OK, allow me to rephrase that.
If I have a choice between winning and losing I would rather win. If I have a choice between playing a reasonably good game and losing (like we did against ECU) and looking completely ridiculous and losing (like we did against Miami) I would feel better after the former than I would after the latter.
Don't get me wrong - I'm MUCH happier when the Hokies win...I'm saying that the way we get that win won't make us feel any better about how the team is performing or will perform the remainder of the season.
For example, our offense might be terrible and completely ineffective, but Boston College twice turns the ball over deep in their own territory. One gives us an offensive touchdown and one a defensive one. On one hand we win, on the other we still have no faith in our offense. So we're happy we won, but don't feel any better about the team because the win required some luck rather than just outright beating someone.
"Virginia Tech 17, Boston College 14 and none of us feel any better after the win." Too true
Thanks for the tip, but I usually like to have more than 1 beer during the game...
Louisiana-Monroe for ACC