By most standard metrics, it appears the defense has taken a step back. It's easy to attribute the drop in statistical categories to injuries and youth but then why does does S&P+ rate the defense 8th and FEI 3rd best in the nation?
Perhaps another (better) explanation is the quality of the offenses Tech has faced thus far. According to FEI, Tech has faced the 3rd toughest defensive strength of schedule in the country. Notice how this is by far the toughest defensive SOS Tech has faced going back to 2007. Tech has given up more points per game and yards per play in large part because they are facing much better offenses.
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However, I will note that a huge part of our strength in these rankings is our victory over Ohio State. Ohio State's fantastic performance since playing us has continued to drag us up the F/+ ratings despite all every loss we throw at it. To say that our defensive performance in the second half of the season matches up to our lofty F/+ rating is certainly a stretch.
I think this just goes to demonstrate how badly injuries have hurt Virginia Tech on defense this year. In particular, the losses of Luther Maddy and Chase Williams have savaged our run defense that was so stout earlier in the year. Unfortunately, we may not see Chase on the field until UVA and we won't get Fayscon or Maddy back at all. This doesn't exactly bode well for the rest of the season, though thankfully the athletes with next opponents' are no Duke Johnsons.
I think we've all seen French mention that our minor defensive mistakes have turned into big gains for opponents. Though we often stifle opponents on most downs, opponents have been able to key in on a couple weak points and roll the dice until we slip up. This is a key risk in Bud Foster's aggressive defensive strategy. This weakness is very apparent in our S&P drive rating and FEI Explosiveness ratings where we have our lowest scores; 22nd (postSoS) and 93rd (preSoS) in the nation respectively.
A surprisingly stark instance of this is against Miami. We held Miami to an acceptable 36% success rate through the air - pretty good against a team that's #9 in the country in Passing S&P (I'm as surprised as you). However, we allowed a passing explosiveness rating (IsoPP) of 1.56 for the 50% of the game before things got out of hand. Granted, Miami is more explosive than they are methodical on offense, but that explosiveness score is still 1.5 times the national average.
I'm not sure what to make of this since I'm not sure how Bud's alignments have changed as injuries have sapped our interior defense. Hopefully, this is an indication that the younger front-7 players, especially on the defensive line, just need to be more disciplined and work to slant better to fill their gaps and keep contain so Bud doesn't have to rely so much on having numerical superiority inside. If that's the case, then Bud has a great foundation to work with going into next year when we are healthier and have more depth and experience along the line. But I still don't think we're in good shape to stop Duke this weekend.
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I think one huge stat that I have not seen mentioned or discussed is the lack of turnovers this years defense has generated. So far through 9 games we have 14 forced TOs: 8 fumbles and 6 INTs. That's an average of about 1.5/ game.
Looking briefly back through our stats (cfb stats.com) we normally average around 2 TOs per game and have only averaged less than 1 INT/game once in the last six years. This is a big change compared to others years.
I was curious if anyone has thoughts on why this is? I'm wagering it's ironically due to how aggressive we have been this year, especially in playing so much man to man. It also probably doesn't help playing so often from behind, other teams aren't having to force things as much as in years past.
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not really a statisic.... more of an educated guess but its alot harder to get a pick in man coverage although easier to defend the pass if you arent beat as to where in a zone the QB throws into coverage he doesnt see often creating ints. id be willling to bet that statistically speaking the rate of ints thrown to a player playing zone is much much higher than that of the rate throwing against man coverage. Buds played alot more man this year to try and get #s in the box.
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One reason for the lack of INT's is the fact that our opponents have been able to run all over us. Why risk a pick when you can average 5 yards per carry?
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I suspect it may have something tot do with the amount of cover 0 we've had to run in man coverage.
In that sort of coverage the CB will be running to the WR and covering the man. He will not be looking for the ball or QB. His back will normally be toward the QB and full facing the WR.
In zone and cover 2, for instance, the CBs and safeties will not have their back turned towards the QB and be peaking into the backfield and looking for the ball.
We've been playing a lot of man coverage cover 0.
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The only stats there that really tell the story of this year's D is the plays over 20 yards and 3rd down conversion %. Everything else is just a function of the big plays against stat.
90+% of the game, this D plays lights out (except Miami). But when it doesn't play lights out, it is absolutely dreadful. For example, VT is 8th in tackles for loss to go along with the abysmal gains > 20 yards. Or VT's pass defense ranks 2nd best in the number of completions against but 120th in yards per completion against.
Also Andy, you're also comparing 2014 to past years as though offensive stats in general have remained static. They haven't.
Even with all of the bad news, this years VT defense is still ranked 31th overall with some non-offensive juggernauts remaining on the schedule. I wouldn't be shocked to see this team finish close to the top 20.
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Comments
By most standard metrics, it appears the defense has taken a step back. It's easy to attribute the drop in statistical categories to injuries and youth but then why does does S&P+ rate the defense 8th and FEI 3rd best in the nation?
Perhaps another (better) explanation is the quality of the offenses Tech has faced thus far. According to FEI, Tech has faced the 3rd toughest defensive strength of schedule in the country. Notice how this is by far the toughest defensive SOS Tech has faced going back to 2007. Tech has given up more points per game and yards per play in large part because they are facing much better offenses.
I was just about to come in here and post the same thing. I really dislike the numbers Andy is using.
However, I will note that a huge part of our strength in these rankings is our victory over Ohio State. Ohio State's fantastic performance since playing us has continued to drag us up the F/+ ratings despite all every loss we throw at it. To say that our defensive performance in the second half of the season matches up to our lofty F/+ rating is certainly a stretch.
I think this just goes to demonstrate how badly injuries have hurt Virginia Tech on defense this year. In particular, the losses of Luther Maddy and Chase Williams have savaged our run defense that was so stout earlier in the year. Unfortunately, we may not see Chase on the field until UVA and we won't get Fayscon or Maddy back at all. This doesn't exactly bode well for the rest of the season, though thankfully the athletes with next opponents' are no Duke Johnsons.
I think we've all seen French mention that our minor defensive mistakes have turned into big gains for opponents. Though we often stifle opponents on most downs, opponents have been able to key in on a couple weak points and roll the dice until we slip up. This is a key risk in Bud Foster's aggressive defensive strategy. This weakness is very apparent in our S&P drive rating and FEI Explosiveness ratings where we have our lowest scores; 22nd (postSoS) and 93rd (preSoS) in the nation respectively.
A surprisingly stark instance of this is against Miami. We held Miami to an acceptable 36% success rate through the air - pretty good against a team that's #9 in the country in Passing S&P (I'm as surprised as you). However, we allowed a passing explosiveness rating (IsoPP) of 1.56 for the 50% of the game before things got out of hand. Granted, Miami is more explosive than they are methodical on offense, but that explosiveness score is still 1.5 times the national average.
I'm not sure what to make of this since I'm not sure how Bud's alignments have changed as injuries have sapped our interior defense. Hopefully, this is an indication that the younger front-7 players, especially on the defensive line, just need to be more disciplined and work to slant better to fill their gaps and keep contain so Bud doesn't have to rely so much on having numerical superiority inside. If that's the case, then Bud has a great foundation to work with going into next year when we are healthier and have more depth and experience along the line. But I still don't think we're in good shape to stop Duke this weekend.
Those statistics are a reminder how good that 2006 defense was
I think one huge stat that I have not seen mentioned or discussed is the lack of turnovers this years defense has generated. So far through 9 games we have 14 forced TOs: 8 fumbles and 6 INTs. That's an average of about 1.5/ game.
Looking briefly back through our stats (cfb stats.com) we normally average around 2 TOs per game and have only averaged less than 1 INT/game once in the last six years. This is a big change compared to others years.
I was curious if anyone has thoughts on why this is? I'm wagering it's ironically due to how aggressive we have been this year, especially in playing so much man to man. It also probably doesn't help playing so often from behind, other teams aren't having to force things as much as in years past.
not really a statisic.... more of an educated guess but its alot harder to get a pick in man coverage although easier to defend the pass if you arent beat as to where in a zone the QB throws into coverage he doesnt see often creating ints. id be willling to bet that statistically speaking the rate of ints thrown to a player playing zone is much much higher than that of the rate throwing against man coverage. Buds played alot more man this year to try and get #s in the box.
One reason for the lack of INT's is the fact that our opponents have been able to run all over us. Why risk a pick when you can average 5 yards per carry?
I suspect it may have something tot do with the amount of cover 0 we've had to run in man coverage.
In that sort of coverage the CB will be running to the WR and covering the man. He will not be looking for the ball or QB. His back will normally be toward the QB and full facing the WR.
In zone and cover 2, for instance, the CBs and safeties will not have their back turned towards the QB and be peaking into the backfield and looking for the ball.
We've been playing a lot of man coverage cover 0.
The only stats there that really tell the story of this year's D is the plays over 20 yards and 3rd down conversion %. Everything else is just a function of the big plays against stat.
90+% of the game, this D plays lights out (except Miami). But when it doesn't play lights out, it is absolutely dreadful. For example, VT is 8th in tackles for loss to go along with the abysmal gains > 20 yards. Or VT's pass defense ranks 2nd best in the number of completions against but 120th in yards per completion against.
Also Andy, you're also comparing 2014 to past years as though offensive stats in general have remained static. They haven't.
Even with all of the bad news, this years VT defense is still ranked 31th overall with some non-offensive juggernauts remaining on the schedule. I wouldn't be shocked to see this team finish close to the top 20.