When I was a kid A Nightmare on Elm Street came out and shockingly my parents allowed me to watch it on video at home with my older brother and his friends. If you haven't seen it, it is a horror classic that despite the usual 80's cheese is still tense to watch as an adult. As a kid, I would cover my eyes when I knew Freddy was going to take another victim, but couldn't help peeking between my fingers. I knew something terrible was going to happen to some naive teenager on the screen but had to watch.
On Saturday, you might feel the temptation to cover your eyes before each Wake Forest offensive snap, but if you can bear to peek through your fingers and watch the line of scrimmage the carnage may rival the worst seen on Elm Street.
Consider:
- By S&P, Virginia Tech's defensive line is No. 5 nationally in "adjusted line yards", the rushing yardage attributed to the line (so adjusting for opponent, the Hokie d-line allows the opposing o-line to create rushing yards at the 5th-worst rate in the country). This is the primary rushing metric for line play.
- Also by S&P, Tech's d-line is No. 1 nationally in adjusted sack rate. This is the primary passing metric for line play.
- Wake Forest's offensive line rates 128th (worst in FBS) and 121st, respectively, for these statistics.
To recap, a defensive line that is 5th best in preventing rushing yards at the line will face the offensive line that is the worst at creating them, and the d-line that is the best at creating sacks will face the offensive line that is 7th-worst at allowing them.
As usual the computer rankings for each team:
That feels good. By computer rankings, Wake Forest is the easiest FBS opponent VT faces this season. This team is bad even by Wake Forest standards — consider that in his record-breaking game, Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon produced more yards (in three quarters no less) than Wake Forest has the entire season.
The predictions (mostly) follow, although somewhere in this world someone came up with a prediction system that has Wake Forest favored:
The odds of a 15-point favorite winning are 86.2%.
Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:
A couple less interceptions, maybe healthy knees for one starting RB, possibly Wyatt Teller starting earlier in the season, and perhaps things would be different. But alas no. Even against lowly Wake Forest, the Loeffler offense is at a disadvantage against the opposing defense. Sigh.
When Virginia Tech Has the Ball
Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.
Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?
Oh please gain yards on 1st and 2nd down and avoid passing situations. Please deliver Duke J.C. Coleman and Duke offensive line play. Please.
Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Hokie offense versus the Demon Deacon defense:
Methodical drives, you're a faithful friend to the Hokie community.
The No. 83 Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:
- Kansas
- UConn
- Florida International
The No. 55 Wake Forest defense is closest in personality to:
- Air Force
- Tulane
- Kansas
No one wants to be compared to Kansas.
When Wake Forest Has the Ball
Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:
Tee it up, Bud.
As for personality traits:
Off. The. Chart.
The No. 1 Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:
- UTSA
- Florida State (I need a shower now)
- Nebraska
The No. 124 (out of 128) Wake Forest offense is closest in personality to:
- Eastern Michigan
- SMU
- UTSA
Special Teams
First we look at the Hokie's kicking units:
Those expecting a bigger advantage should know that special teams is one thing Wake Forest does well, ranking 5th in the country (Duke slipped to No. 2 after the two missed FG's for those curious). When Wake kicks:
How bad would Wake Forest be if their special teams weren't this good?
Who To Watch Out For
This section is a little difficult to do for Wake Forest but here goes:
- Punter Alexander Kinal is 3rd in the country in punts/game (not really something to brag about).
- Kicker Mike Weaver has made 13 of 14 field goals.
Statistical Key to the Game
Wake Forest is a bad offense that is especially bad at running. If they have any success rushing, we may be in trouble. But big upsets typically require winning the turnover battle, so my key to the game will be not losing the turnover battle...neutral or in Tech's favor and it's hard to imagine Wake Forest winning a battle of moving the ball.
My Prediction
The Hokies stand to become bowl-eligible with a win, and must feel good after the win against Duke. I seriously doubt they look ahead to UVa and take this for granted, especially since almost nothing has come easy this season.
It is incredibly tough to shutout even a weak opponent (38-0) and I'd virtually never predict it. But I think the VT defense is absolutely dominant and piles up tackles for loss. Wake Forest only puts points on the board thanks to a couple of decent special teams plays but never appears a threat to put together a sustained drive. Ken Ekanem has a big game as the entire DL completely destroys Wake's helpless OL. It is incredibly satisfying to watch, and Hokie fans will actually look forward to being on defense to watch the carnage.
Virginia Tech 24, Wake Forest 6
As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.
Comments
Great statistics as always. I didn't know that wake was that bad on offense until I read this. I knew that they were bad but I didn't know that they were last. Hopefully Bud's boys can tee off on weak florist and we can rack up some sacks.
What is this sensation I'm feeling? Is it...optimism? I actually think we can win this one!
The fact that our offense is at a disadvantage is disconcerting, but hopefully it can continue to improve upon last week's good moments. Plus, even if it doesn't, we should be able to get enough points off of defense to win the game. :)
I too felt that strange sensation...I kept hoping the stats would give me reason for pause but they just didn't. I just feel like they have little hope against our defense (as long as VT is focused), and even our crappy offense should score enough to win this one.
"in his record-breaking game, Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon produced more yards (in three quarters no less) than Wake Forest has the entire season."
It's actually worse than that... Gordon had more rush yds in the 2nd & 3rd qtrs (combined) than WF has had all year.
As soon as I scrolled down to the defensive charts I just started evily laughing
Glad I'm not the only one.
Those graphs are scaled to make it unlikely that a point would ever fall off of them...it requires an exceptionally good team to face an exceptionally bad one. Even our offense facing the best defense in the country would easily be inside the graph. I refuse to expand the scale for two reasons:
1. For more evenly-matched teams it just keeps everything so close to the middle that it's tough to learn much.
2. That evil laugh feels so good when our D puts a point off the chart.
Fearless Prediction:
Virginia Tech will have more rushing yards on our first running play than Wake Forest will have all game.
Actually I'm going to correct that.
They will have fewer yards rushing than we have rushing yards on our first play, which will be a pass
Wake Forest actually has a decent secondary, so I'm not sure if it would be advisable to open up with a long pass.
Who said anything about a long pass? I would imagine we start off with either a screen or a short slant to the TE. In any event, WF won't see positive rushing yards Saturday
On this note...
Bold Prediction:
Virginia Tech's D scores more points than Wake's O
That's what I'm talking about!
Bolder prediction: Kendall Fuller scores more points than Wake's offense.
He's going to have to return a fumble for a TD, because there's no way that WF will throw in the direction of a Fuller.
For anyone who remembers the shellacking we gave BC back in 2009, this could be even more fun for Bud's group. I'm pretty sure BC didn't break into positive yardage until the second half.
OFF. THE. CHART. bwahahahaha
WF actually has the #10 passing defense in the country. Like you said, if we can't run the ball, we're in deep trouble. Respect all, fear none.
Don't be fooled by that "10th rated pass defense"...that's measured in total passing yards per game. Most opponents are leaning heavily on the run to kill the clock and no longer accumulating pass yards. They are 50th by S&P, and allow opposing QB's to complete 61% of passes (95th in the country) for 6.3 YPA (26th) and a QB Rating of 121.77 (47th). They are keeping total yardage down by having the 18th-fewest pass attempts against them.
Note VT is tied for 9th lowest in pass attempts against but is allowing a completion rate of 46.6% (2nd) for 6.5 YPA (35th) and a QB Rating of 107.47 (15th), and that's against a schedule that includes QB Ratings rated 2nd, 5th, 7th, 19th, 38th, 39th, and 46th. That results in the #1 S&P pass defense.
Agreed, last week, NC State ran 18 pass plays all game and only 4 in the second half vs. 40+ run plays. VT simply doesn't need to beat themselves - turnovers and penalties and they'll win handily.
Too many Kansas mentions for me in that one. I still haven't gotten over the Orange Bowl.
I just hope the team doesn't get cocky. Bad things happen when VT is cocky.
Agreed. Let's just hit the QB repeatedly, score a few times, and go home with a win.
I want those two things happening on the same play.
And more than once.
From what I can find on the Kansas spring game they went 1st string vs second string rather than 1st Off vs 1st def. Either way the second team was leading 7-0 at half and the first team came back to win 20-10. Basically the first team O got shut out by the second team D and the first team D gave up a TD to the second string O. I think the conclusion here is it sucks to be compared to Kansas football.
So it's gonna come down to field position and turnovers.
I would really love to see us play a complete game.