Virginia Tech opened as 1 point favorite over Virginia but the line has quickly moved to PK or 1 point dogs. It'll be very interesting to see where this line ends up before game time.
What do you think? Do you have the confidence to bet on VT keeping the Commonwealth Cup in Blacksburg?
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What's the over under? A field goal?
Taking the under.
I just hope we score more points than the number of timeouts Mike London calls
I'd upvote this but just started here.
Just gave you the GREEN light. Upvote away.
Gracias compadre.
Didn't know recreational marijuana was legalized in Nevada...
Mind numbing
If I was an objective fan, and it didn't go against everything I believe in, I would put some serious money on UVA.
But I'm not, and it does, and I think we win convincingly.
If I were able to gamble legally, I'd easily have no problem making ny bets objectively. Except for UVa; no matter the spread, I'd NEVER take them.
That said, I like to ask your logic on how we win convincingly. Having been in Wjnston-Salem yesterday, and then watching the first half of the UVa game, I cannot reconcile that evidence with what you're saying. I'd love to believe you, but I don't see it.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not using any sort of evidence.
It's a completely irrational prediction based on nothing but blind homerism. It's more fun that way, imo.
Well, I admire your ability to walk off the edge of the cliff like that.
And without a safety line.
that's free damn money.
I can't logically see how we have advantages, but I could emotionally see how we buck up and win the game.
I could also see us getting thumped.
So you are saying you have no idea
If you're planning on betting on VT, please buy something from TKP's online store instead. At least get something in return for your money.
Ok, King George III (am I doing that right?)
Good point. I still haven't made my Hokie club contribution this year. Money must better spent on TKP or HC than in Vegas or offshore.
After the WtF "game" yesterday, and upon observing the hoos shred the canes I imagine the locker is a lot like
Hoos should be favored by at least 3-4 points after that beatdown they put on Miami...wait did I really just say that? FML.
Vegas is looking at the body of work. UVA has been a dumpster fire in recent weeks before getting things righted against Miami. My only hope is that despite all of the coach speak VT had actually begun prepping for UVA prior to the WF game. That's the only explanation I have for what happened on Saturday.
I'm also hopeful the coaching staff makes a change at QB and that sparks some success in the running game. The way Brewer has played the last two weeks I cringe to think of him facing a Tenuta defense that brings pressure from all over the place all of the time.
We probably have only covered the spread twice this year (OSU, UNC). Surprised vegas is still putting out VT lines based on our potential rather than our actual performance. Right now picking the boo-Hoos looks like the lock of the year. But that's why they play the games, as we well know anything can happen.
We covered the spread againist Duke
We've covered the spread four times this year. In the past we used to beat the spread most of the time, but lately that trend has reversed.
VT, like every other school, has an ATS record that norms.
The last 20 years ATS records:
4-8-1, 4-9, 4-9-1, 10-4, 7-5-1, 6-7, 7-5-1, 7-5, 10-3, 9-3, 5-7, 7-7, 6-6, 6-6, 7-4-1, 10-2, 4-8, 7-5, 9-2-1, 5-7
the 2011 team was good and they were 4-9-1 ATS. The 1998 team wasn't very good and they were 10-2.
Dont bother with the facts...minds are made up.
Don't bother with the facts and statistics....98.79999999 % of them are made up.
They weren't that bad even during their losing streak. A blowout loss to gT, but they fought hard against FSU and out gained Duke by a lot. UNC came back to beat them, but they aren't the first offense to struggle stopping UNC.
They are inconsistent on offense. If we can pressure Lambert, he may very we'll help us out. I'm a big believer that this matchup is always won by the team with the better QB play. If Brewer plays like he did vs BC, he can win that QB matchup.
We can win this game, but we need to play like we did vs UNC and BC. (Even against Duke our offense blew)
You mean if Motley comes in...right? Please?
Since the game is on Black Friday, think we can get a touchdown on sale?
Score one, get two free?
You guys must be talking about the Bud Light Special*.
*This offer only applies to defensive players
If any of you are inclined to make a, uh, short term sports related investment, it seems like a few other venues have weighed in with lines ranging from VT -1 to UVA -2.
All I know is...I want to destroy them - it's just in my blood. But I have no idea what the mindset is of the team, the coaches, or the fans. For the first time in forever, we have a good chance of losing this thing. I can't gauge whether it even matters to anyone but me.
I want the bowl streak and I want the Cup streak. Bad.
Hopefully everyone involved is ready to bring it. And just in case it does get testy, maybe even nasty, and the boys sack up and start thinking they want to play for state pride...
I'm kinda hoping we have a Virginian in there at QB.
Of course it matters. I live in freakin C'ville.
Frank is happy that he is favored
This never fails to amaze me.
Stroman has been so close to breaking one all year. The only way we win is if we get a special teams or defensive TD. Might require two. UVA is such a mess as well, and who knows what team of theirs will show up. But, how will we protect the passer enough to score ANY touchdown's on offense, much less enough to win. I have more confidence in our running game than in our ability to protect the QB. I have said JC will break one at a key moment at some point in his career. Maybe this will be the one, tho I was picturing something a little bigger than a match up of two 5-6 train wrecks, with VT being the bigger train wreck at the moment.
This game will be one we remember no matter what happens..
I just think that Vegas must have set that line before yesterdays games. Not sure how they can set it after.
Vegas never sets lines before the previous weeks games. They were set today. But I agree with the sentiment. VT looked terrible against WF. UVA looked great against Miami. Thus, it's crazy to think VT should be favored at all. This sentiment is shared with the gambling community:
If you want to see the movement of the line based on the Vegas Insiders consensus1, look here. The consensus line began at 3:51 PM and by 3:55, the line had already moved a point in UVA's favor. By 8:15, it has moved 3 points in UVA's favor. That's a lot of movement, suggesting that Vegas incorrectly set the line.
1-The consensus is the most recurrent line currently on the Las Vegas and Offshore Books.
Yeah, but a 2 point fav in their favor is still statistically insignificant. It's a toss up game.
I'm not sure what you mean by "statistically insignificant." Not sure which statistical test would apply or even what numbers you would use to perform the test.
But my point was it takes a good amount of bets (or a few heavy bets) on one side to move the line 3 points. I doubt it would move 4 points, as a 3-point margin is one of those "magical" numbers. But, it is obvious that the gambling community does not think VT will win.
We were favored based on name recognition and reputation. Much like how Brazil was favored in the WC Semifinal just because it was in Brazil even though everyone that watched the games knew they weren't going to win (that was one of the worst games Vegas has ever had).
If the hoos manage to break the streak, it could be close, or it could be by a lot. If we win, we all know it will be close. Despite all rational thought saying we lose this game, I cannot pick the hoos.
My prediction? This game encapsulates everything about Frank Beamer's philosophy, and Bud's D wins the game for us while the offense does nothing more than try to kill the play clock to rest the D.
Final score: VT-2 UVa - 0
I think Frank would rather win by the one point safety, VT-1 UVa-0
"a November 26, 2004 game in which Texas scored against Texas A&M, and the 2013 Fiesta Bowl in which Oregon scored against Kansas State.[25] In both games the PAT kick was blocked, recovered by the defense, and then fumbled or thrown back into the end zone." Source:Wiki
And thats why we were the 1 point favorite
You can't score a 1 pt safety until you get 6 pts for a touchdown.
I would like to quote a member of TKP by saying:
If it was announced that Motley was the starter than maybe i could believe it. But if the stagnant offense of Saturday shows up, the cup might have a new home.
VT probably also opened as a 1-point favorite over Regulation Time against Wake Forest
After this weekend.
IF there were a way to score one point...we would still find that challenging!
There's a way, the one point safety. See my above reply.
And that's why they say, "you learn something new everyday"!
However, you still cant win 1-0. The 1-pt safety requires an actual TD to be scored first. Obviously, that's not happening with our offense (defense? maybe?) My prediction will also be VT 2-0 LOLUVa.
Curse you with your facts and logic!
Damnit, I had the same problem in elementary school. I rushed the work and didn't double check it! Leg for the correction.
Dumb, UVA should be at least 7
Vegas knows what the fuck its doing. It makes no difference what people actually think, they need to create action; preferably action that covers both sides of the betting somewhat equally.
No, what "people" think actually makes all the difference. Vegas just tries to find the line where the bets will be balanced by the "people". I would say that Vegas miscalculated just how much last week's games would influence perceptions by the betting public. If this game had been last weekend, it would have been like VT -4.
It makes no difference what Vegas thinks the actual score will be.
Wha? They set the line based on the teams and how they match up. If one side is loaded up on with bets, the line then moves. Just because a team has more fans than another team, or should I say, a higher rate of betting, that doesn't affect the line.
As for last week being -4 versus -1, see the 0-0 tie at the end of regulation...
Huh? They do not set the line based on how the teams match-up. They base the lines based on how they think the betting public will think they line up.
If this game had been last Sat, i.e. before VT lost to WF and UVA beat Miami, IMO the line would have been something like -4 (maybe even -4.5 or -5.0) and probably wouldn't have moved much. At that point, UVA had done even less over the previous month than VT...and VT would be home.
Vegas sets the line based on what they believe the general population thinks the final score will be, for which they leverage some of the best analytical experts to come in and evaluate the strengths of teams to get a best estimate on what they think the spread will be.
So while they don't best specifically on what they think the score will be, that is, in return what actually happens.
I thought Vegas just came up with an initial spread and then adjusted based on betting behaviors.
They do. But ideally bookies and casinos would prefer that the line not move at all. The idea is to guess what the public perception of the game and where the money will go BEFORE the wagering begins.
As I said, Vegas underestimated how much credit the betting public would give UVA for beating Miami and/or how much the VT loss to WF (among other things) would taint the perception of VT.
i think we win 2-0
VT covers!