ESPN usually does picks for teams to watch in the next year.
Hokies made the list at #5.
5. Virginia Tech Hokies
2014 record: 7-6, 3-5 in ACC
Average Efficiency Rank: 41
Returning Starters: 16 (8 offense, 8 defense)
After winning 10 or more games each season from 2004 to 2011, Virginia Tech has failed to reach double-digit wins in any of the past three seasons. The Hokies finished 7-6 in 2014 and needed two consecutive wins to avoid their first losing season in 22 years.
Looking deeper into the numbers, however, the Hokies might not have been as bad as their record suggests. Virginia Tech lost five games by seven points or fewer, tied for most such losses in the nation. The Hokies were hammered by injuries, particularly on offense, but still managed to extend their FBS-leading bowl participation streak.
In 2015, Virginia Tech returns the second-most starters in the ACC, including eight players on a defense that ranked seventh in the FBS in efficiency. Offensively, Virginia Tech returns its top three receivers, top four rushers and QB Michael Brewer.
The Hokies once again avoid Florida State, Louisville and Clemson from the ACC Atlantic division and should have a great shot in a wide-open ACC Coastal. Their toughest test is undoubtedly against Ohio State, but if they can beat the Buckeyes again, the rest of their schedule is favorable.
Comments
I love it, but I think it is a little disrespectful to a very good GT team to say the division is "wide open". Although, I think they have to play Clemson and FSU next year. Still.
knowing Bud, he won't let GT beat us consecutively.
Why wouldn't it be? GT's losing is losing 7 of it's top 10 rushers, and including 4 of the top 5. On top of that, they're losing their top 2 receivers, and arguably their best O-lineman. That's gonna hurt them.
That being said, their still returning Thomas, and most of their line. They should still be the favorites, but not by as much as people think.
Only with Georgia Tech would you see 7 of top 10 rushers. That being said, I don't think the drop-off will be quite as much as you think.
The key to the triple option is really the QB. They are the ones making the reads and pitches that make that offense click, and returning Thomas is absolutely huge to them. There might be a little dip in their numbers, but I doubt it will be that dramatic. Also, if you look at their scoring averages under PJ:
2008: 24.38 (74th) Nesbitt
2009: 33.79 (15th) Nesbitt [ACC Championship]
2010: 26.00 (71st) Nesbitt (Washington last 4)
2011: 34.31 (21st) Washington
2012: 33.57 (34th) Washington
2013: 35.1 (26th) Thomas
2014: 37.9 (11th) Thomas [Orange Bowl]
They've been pretty consistent towards the mid 30's. On defense however:
2008: 18.8 (22nd)
2009: 24.8 (56th)
2010: 25.2 (57th)
2011: 26.1 (60th)
2012: 28.3 (65th)
2013: 22.8 (29th)
2014: 25.1 (52nd)
They've been consistently mediocre. Basically their offense has had to overcome the shortcomings on defense. 2013 seemingly makes no sense, but if you take out their games against Elon, Syracuse, and Alabama A&M, they gave up 29.0 ppg. Keeping that in mind, Georgia Tech does very well when their offense can score at least 10 points more than their defense gives up, otherwise they are a pretty mediocre team.
The key is going to be on defense, where they are losing 6 starters. That will hold them back, and will open up the division.
I will go out on a limb and say that most teams do quite well when their offense scores 10 points more than their defense gives up ;)
mind blown
Agreed, but I think it's really funny how in the seasons where they were about 10+ they won 11 games (+9 in 2009 and +12.8 in 2014). In seasons less than +9 they won no more than 8. They were +8.2 in 2011 and finished 8-5, so it seems like that one whole point is very valuable. Of course that one point is the difference between a one and two possession game.
And you are right that teams do well when the offense scores +10. I was going to do VT over the same span, but I also got interested in looking at it over the 10 win span to now, so this will start at the 2004 season:
You want to know the best part? As bad as our offense has been, not once over that span has UVA averaged more points. Still, seeing how great the point differential was in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2009 made me wonder what it was for the National Champions over that same span:
So your average National Champion over that span scored 40.3 points per game and held opponents to 14.7, resulting in a +25.6 margin. The worst offense was ranked 23rd, the worst defense 53rd (although 8 of 11 were top 6). However, the average offense would be about 10th and the defense would be about 11th. In reality, you are looking for one part of your team to be roughly top 5 and the other to be top 25. LSU and Auburn are the only exception to this rule: LSU because of chaos and Auburn because Cam Newton sold his soul to the devil.
Looking at it roughly, Virginia Tech was best suited to make a title run in 2004 and 2005.
In 2004 we lost a very close season opener to the eventual National Champion USC and then laid an egg against N.C. State before losing a tight one with #2 Auburn (who probably should have been in the title game) in the Sugar Bowl.
In 2005 we got blasted by #17 Miami and were later upset by #23 FSU.
Our defense could improve a little bit, but they are pretty close to where they need to be. However, many people will tell you that with a good offense Virginia Tech would have won championships, but even the years we fielded a top 30 offense (2004, 2005, 2009, and 2010) we finished with at least two losses. We need our offense to practically be every bit as good as our defense in order to compete for titles; either that, or get lucky and have the ball bounce our way in every close game.
Miami was #5 when they blasted us. Then they fell off.
Makes me wonder what could have been.
Turnovers are what they traditionally have to deal with when they lose starters.
Yes, the QB is making the magic happen, but the other backs have to be comfortable with game speed reads and reactions as well, and GT has lost a lot of fumbles off backs not being where they are supposed to be, or not looking where they are supposed to be looking.
That many options is great when everyone is on-point, but it takes real game snaps to work out all the kinks.
Opposing teams will have opportunities off GT errors next year.
Coastal has been pretty much "Wide Open" for years, regardless of how good the teams are.
Has anyone alerted LOLUVA to this fact?
Hey, there was a year they could have won the division...all they had to do was beat us...who am I kidding?
Yeah, about that
We should have beaten GT this year, and they look to be getting worse, not better. You don't just replace multi year starters on their offense and not have a fall off with the kind of recruiting they have.
Everyone thought GT was going to be terrible this year, so until proven otherwise, I will assume they will be good again this year. Plus, I think they improved over the year.
Can't argue with that assessment. Someone please forward to Deadspin.
I like that they threw in "if they can beat the Buckeyes again"
I won't say this often about ESPN, but I do appreciate this consideration:
Just another reason to appreciate the Frankinator, and how he hasn't brought down the wrath of the NCAA on us. Sure, FSU went to one for I believe 11-more seasons, but they also had to vacate some wins in '06 and '07 including what was then the Emerald Bowl.
Of course that is also unfortunately a mistake. FSU I am pretty sure is the FBS leading bowl streak at over 30 years.
Still, VT has the longest streak without vacated wins or appearances right now.
NCAA officially does not recognize all of those seasons as they violated NCAA rules.
Therefore, they do not have an unbroken streak, officially.
Yes, I am excited and optimistic about next season. I think more wins are likely with improved health, the younger players now having more experience, and a manageable schedule.
Everywhere I look, we have a different number of returning starters. I've said it before, and I'll say it again. We have 6-8 players returning who have started multiple games in the past, but will be reserves in 2015 (especially at TE, RB, and CB). We gon be DEEP.
Here's how I would tally it up.. returning 1st teamers who have a started a at least a few games. (I'm not counting guys like McKenzie who were big contributors as reserves but never started.)
Offense Returning Starters:
1. QB - Brewer
2. RB - Coleman
3. TE - Hodges
4. TE - Malleck
5. OT - McLaughlin
6. OG - Teller
7. OG/OT - Conte
8. WR - Ford
9. WR - Phillips
"new" starters = 2 (2 OL)
Plus these players have all started for all or most of a season
10. FB - Rogers (we frequently ran twin TE rather than 1 TE 1 FB)
11. TE - Cline
12. RB - Edmunds
13. RB - Williams (might redshirt)
Defense Returning Starters:
1. DE - Nicolas
2. DE - Ekanem
3. DT - Marshall
4. DT - Maddy
5. BK - Clarke
6. CB - Fuller
7. NB - Clark - probably moving to safety for 2015, but our DB positions are almost interchangable on the field so he still counts
8. CB - Riley
"new" starters: 3 (Mike, ROV, Free)
Plus these players have all started for all or most of a season
7. DT - Williams
8. CB - Facyscon - status for '15 TBD
9. WH - Trimble - started 5 games in 2013 but only ST in 2014.
**Whip seems like the FB of the defense these days. Listed on the depth chart but not used as frequently as Nickel.
Pretty much right on, except don't forget Andrew Motuapuaka started while Chase Williams was out in 2014. And I'm expecting Facyson to start. Plus if you want to get technical, Shai was a 'co-starter' for Ohio State. Regardless, DEEP.
*except for DE
*cries*
He only started 3 games, and only really saw the field at all because Chase was injured. I think the consensus was that there was a big drop off in performance. Same reason I didn't include Hansen for Offense. They are not quite "starter" level of performance yet, despite being pressed into action. On the other hand a guy like Nigel Williams played really well at DT and was getting playing time before Maddy went out injured. Also started 9 game, more than half a season.
I completely agree...big drop off in point of attack...Chase the vast majority of the time seemed to put himself into a position to either make the play or at least be in the proper gap to not let a runner run untouched beyond the linebacker zones.. Chase reminded me a little of CODY GRIMM. Always around the ball. .Motoupauka on the other hand, seemed to get be overly aggressive into the line and open up gaps for the running back to break free into the secondary. He did have a lot of tackles, but I feel he didn't have the field presence that Chase to for contain and point of attack.
You're absolutely right about Motoupauka but they guy is only a freshman (redshirt, I grant you). Putting a r-freshman in the place of a r-Senior linebacker, I think it's fair to expect more than a little drop off.
The field experience will help him a lot and then add on taking first team reps over the spring and summer and he will be vastly improved in 2015
He also noticeably improved from the 1st game to the 3rd. I expect to see a completely different player in terms of his reads and being in the right place at the beginning of next season. Add his athleticism and we may be saying "Chase who?" by the end of next season.
Something I would like to see from French is how he feels Motoupauka compares to a healthy Devin VanDyke. I think he was very high on DVD either last Spring or the preceeding one and if he is healthy, I could see it being a good battle this Spring and Fall.
This is a GREAT assessment. For ST, we also return starters at P, PK, and PR. We also have 4 returning KRs (JCC, Newman, Greene, and Knowles), but I'd prefer not to list them as starters because I hope Beamer gives some new guys a shot here (maybe Stroman, McMillian, or anyone who knows how to take a knee when they catch it in the EZ!).
The key to next season (once again) is going to be O-Line (big surprise), and no major injuries. We cannot have injuries at OL or DE due to the lack of depth at these positions, and we need to avoid injuries to other key starters as well if we are to compete for Coastal Championship. For OL, we need two new quality Centers (starter & a backup - thus I think this is THE KEY position for us next year], plus we need McLaughlin to come back 100% from injury, and either a G or T to step up so we can put Conte at his best position (whichever that is). Plus we need improved OL depth overall. For DE, we need serious depth, which I assume will come from Keihn or incoming freshmen. We need this anyway because Dadi will be a SR. I trust Bud to field/develop two good Mikes and TG to field two solid safeties (but I still expect a drop-off at safety positions since we are replacing two 3-year starters) - hopefully rest of D can make up for it, especially early in season (OSU!).
Welcome to TKP! Definitely agree with the return specialists point. They should totally put Bucky back there though, just for fun.
so RealDiehl, who do you think gets replaced as starters at those positions you mentioned by players who were reserves this year? You think Cline will supplant Malleck and start over him alongside Bucky? JC Coleman and Trey getting replaced as starters by underclassmen? Deuce Riley possibly getting replaced at corner?
Malleck was one of the team's most important player early in the season before his injury doing everything Loeffler mentioned he would in the offseason and past (3rd down conversions) as he lead the team in receiving vs. Ohio State. He is still way ahead of Cline at this point and we all know Bucky should be on the field at all times. Bucky is not ready to be an every down hand in the ground TE, but will be out wide or in 2 TE sets. Malleck will resume his starting role for the duration of 2015. He served as captain for the majority of the year as a R-Jr. so clearly means a lot to the team/offense. Will definitely see more 3 TE sets with a healthy Cline and more rotating at the position.
JC played like a beast down the stretch. He will get reps and keep earning his spot.
We have a ton of talented DB's coming up, so I can definitely see Clarke as a better safety than anything, but Riley has experience so will continue to see the field, especially as we continue to play more and more DB's on the field at once.
If we're lucky:
Cline, Malleck and Bucky all start in a 3 TE attack offense.
Juice and Shai both redshirt and heal, Reid and McMillian come in for depth behind JC and Trey.
DBU does DBU things and there is no dropoff with next up, but Facyson coming back full health would be great.
Put in Durkin at QB and we have the classic VT 4-TE attack offense
/sarc
I think this is more important than most people realize. With Byrn's graduation and Stanford's dismissal we are really young at WR. I have no concerns at all about I. Ford and Phillips, but after that things get uncertain. Newsome's got jets. So does Knowles, but he got beat out by a bunch of freshmen. I expect good things from Holland but that's a gut feeling.
In general, once we get past our top two receivers, there's a bunch of uncertainty. We need Cline, Malleck and Bucky to counterbalance that.
My thought, you see Bucky line up like a WR more often than not with Cline and Malleck lined up in your traditional TE spot.
good article I agree with it. If and its a big IF the offensive line is improved the sky is the limit for next season. 235 more days.......
I'm pretty bullish on the development of the OLine right now. Seeing them starting to get things going the last couple games along with the athletic upgrades we're most likely going to see, plus a more experienced Teller, makes me think they'll start whoopin' some people sooner rather than later. I'm a rather big fan of Searels as an OL coach as well.
I'm really excited to see the development of the line over the next couple years. People have completely written us off until Beamer retires, and its kind of like knowing this secret you just can't wait to get out so that you can shut everyone else up. We have all the pieces in place to be a VERY good football team, and we're just waiting on the OL to gel. We've got legitimate WR talent that has shown they can and will catch anything within a 5 foot radius of their chest. We have the most stacked corps of TEs in the country. We have a very deep stable of talented RBs, and we have multiple talented QBs who will all be challenging for the starting spot this year and next. Oh, and we also have a defense that is not only in a continual reload loop, but is also now starting to bring in some of the best talent we've had on the line in years, to go along with just a continual string of top flight DB talent. Our weak link is the OL. Once they gel and start playing at the level their talent level says they will be playing (honestly, we have more kids who came in as 4* OL talent set to play on the OL than I can ever remember a VT OL having) we're going to be playing at a level of football far surpassing even our own expectations.
Keeping the RB corp healthy will be big too
2015 is going to be a special year...I have that gut feeling
Excuse me sirs, I have a ticket for the 2015 hype train where do I board?
Spring Road. At dawn on Labor Day.