So Andy I know this is asking Lot, but since the biggest complaint is about the "missed"4/5 star players have you looked at doing a piece on players who had us in their "top" teams but went elsewhere and how they fared?
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Alum07 did a nice post on this if you search through the forums from about two weeks ago. The consensus is that most did not pan out quite as highly as they should have.
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- I would disagree that 6 starters out of 21 "isn't good, to say the least." That's normal, at least at VT. 1/3 will become starters, 1/3 will stick with the program and contribute some, 1/3 will leave the program or never even make it. It's been like that for 15+ years at VT. Remember that tomorrow, 1/3 of these kids won't be around in 24 months.
- Shuman was really expected, because of his brother's success and his measurables, to be a rock at OT. Looking back at it, him never turning the corner before he got hurt really hampered our OL. He would have been the surest bet that NSD in our class.
- DiNardo, and even Byrn, were well regarded walk-on's. We were excited to get both, especially DiNardo. I remember Byrn catching a pass in the 38-0bro game and thinking, "Wow, UVA really sucks, Willie Byrn is even getting to play." But he really made something out of himself.
- Acree committed very early to VT and by the time NSD came around, it was widely considered that he was a likely "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" guy. His flameout wasn't unexpected.
- There was a lot of discussion about Kendall Fuller even at that time, almost to the point where the skinny Kyle Fuller was worth an offer to get Kendall. I remember thinking we should immediately move Kyle to FS and hope to get some backup minutes out of him late in his career. It was a big shock when he was playing as a Tr-Freshman.
- We really liked Nick Dew, DeAntre Rhodes and Zach McCray. That was the next great Big 3 on Bud's defense.
- Arkema looked like a scrapper. It seemed like he battled some injuries in his time, but he had a nasty demeanor coming out of HS.
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It's never good to only get 1/3 of your class be starters, like in 2008 and 2010, but its not unusual. Do more research, go back as far as Rivals will allow you and compare it to Auburn or another ACC school.
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Trust me I have a lot of this data from before 2005 when I was working on doing a GIS project that I just haven't had the time to really wrap up (20 credits keeps you busy) and this year was definitely a buck in the trend. 2010s recruiting class is not the norm and judging by the trend that I see from my data carrying over to Bitter's where it picks up (with admittedly a year or two of missing data) there is a massive drop off.
I'm not blaming the athletes of this class, we had some bad luck with injuries and a few other factors but this class definitely lacked something to be desired. You look at all of our classes since we (and rivals) became relevant and some of our most successful teams had multi-year talented players as well as some incredibly talented freak of nature underclassmen. This class lacked both, we didn't have many players leaving to go early because they were freaks of nature, nor did we have multi-year starters.
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Overall it was an underperforming class with only three multi-year starters (Fuller, Hopkins, and Bonner) and none on offense. As a comparison, look at all the 2013 guys who already are or most likely will be multi-year starters. Fuller, Hodges, Chuck Clark, Facyson (if healthy), Motuapuaka, and Teller. Plus a few other guys who have high potential in this group, such as Holland Fisher.
This was good insight by Bitter and a reminder of one of the factors that contributed to recent woes......as well as a reason for optimism going forward.
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Agreed. If we can string together multiple very good classes (and I think 2013 - 2015 combined looks the part) and develop them, we will take a real step forward 2015 - 2017.
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Comments
This explains a lot!
So Andy I know this is asking Lot, but since the biggest complaint is about the "missed"4/5 star players have you looked at doing a piece on players who had us in their "top" teams but went elsewhere and how they fared?
Alum07 did a nice post on this if you search through the forums from about two weeks ago. The consensus is that most did not pan out quite as highly as they should have.
Would love to take credit for it, but I'm pretty sure I didn't put anything like that together.
Those recruiticorns (or lack of in this case) will get after ya...
Wow, so many names I had completely forgotten about.
I had the same thought. I remember being pumped about Jerome Lewis at TE. It looks like he never did much anywhere though...
Some thoughts:
- I would disagree that 6 starters out of 21 "isn't good, to say the least." That's normal, at least at VT. 1/3 will become starters, 1/3 will stick with the program and contribute some, 1/3 will leave the program or never even make it. It's been like that for 15+ years at VT. Remember that tomorrow, 1/3 of these kids won't be around in 24 months.
- Shuman was really expected, because of his brother's success and his measurables, to be a rock at OT. Looking back at it, him never turning the corner before he got hurt really hampered our OL. He would have been the surest bet that NSD in our class.
- DiNardo, and even Byrn, were well regarded walk-on's. We were excited to get both, especially DiNardo. I remember Byrn catching a pass in the 38-0bro game and thinking, "Wow, UVA really sucks, Willie Byrn is even getting to play." But he really made something out of himself.
- Acree committed very early to VT and by the time NSD came around, it was widely considered that he was a likely "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" guy. His flameout wasn't unexpected.
- There was a lot of discussion about Kendall Fuller even at that time, almost to the point where the skinny Kyle Fuller was worth an offer to get Kendall. I remember thinking we should immediately move Kyle to FS and hope to get some backup minutes out of him late in his career. It was a big shock when he was playing as a Tr-Freshman.
- We really liked Nick Dew, DeAntre Rhodes and Zach McCray. That was the next great Big 3 on Bud's defense.
- Arkema looked like a scrapper. It seemed like he battled some injuries in his time, but he had a nasty demeanor coming out of HS.
2008: 12 of 31 signees started for at least one year
2009: 10 of 22
2010: 6 of 21
So yeah, I'd say 2010 wasn't good in that regard.
It's never good to only get 1/3 of your class be starters, like in 2008 and 2010, but its not unusual. Do more research, go back as far as Rivals will allow you and compare it to Auburn or another ACC school.
*Looks at all the research AB just did to put out a quality article about recruits that signed a half decade ago*
"Go do everything you just did again, but actually do double the amount of work. Maybe triple it. That should take you an afternoon, right?"
Do... Do you run my lab? Is this Dr. ******???
Trust me I have a lot of this data from before 2005 when I was working on doing a GIS project that I just haven't had the time to really wrap up (20 credits keeps you busy) and this year was definitely a buck in the trend. 2010s recruiting class is not the norm and judging by the trend that I see from my data carrying over to Bitter's where it picks up (with admittedly a year or two of missing data) there is a massive drop off.
I'm not blaming the athletes of this class, we had some bad luck with injuries and a few other factors but this class definitely lacked something to be desired. You look at all of our classes since we (and rivals) became relevant and some of our most successful teams had multi-year talented players as well as some incredibly talented freak of nature underclassmen. This class lacked both, we didn't have many players leaving to go early because they were freaks of nature, nor did we have multi-year starters.
Sometimes reality is just really a kick to the dick via an Andy Bitter article that's chocked with truth.
GREENMAN!
Is now a green comment SKADOOSH
Skadoosh is such an under-utilized phrase.
I think this sums up my thoughts on that class as a whole
yup
Andy - based on your reviews (this year and prior), what would you say is our "best" and "worst" classes?
Overall it was an underperforming class with only three multi-year starters (Fuller, Hopkins, and Bonner) and none on offense. As a comparison, look at all the 2013 guys who already are or most likely will be multi-year starters. Fuller, Hodges, Chuck Clark, Facyson (if healthy), Motuapuaka, and Teller. Plus a few other guys who have high potential in this group, such as Holland Fisher.
This was good insight by Bitter and a reminder of one of the factors that contributed to recent woes......as well as a reason for optimism going forward.
A rough count I see that we have 10 out of the 19 in that 2013 class contributing heavily through last season.
Agreed. If we can string together multiple very good classes (and I think 2013 - 2015 combined looks the part) and develop them, we will take a real step forward 2015 - 2017.
Random...but somehow appropriate...I think!
Fun fact about Smiling, he works with the FCA under Dave Gittings. He assist with football and men's basketball.