http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2013/five-star-quarterbacks-ranking/
Great to see that they consider Tyrod a success, I know that I certainly do. I was amazed at how more than half of the players mentioned had careers that were considered busts. I can only hope that Bucky will be another QB that wasn't rated as a 5 star QB that goes on to have a more successful career than those ranked higher than him.
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Yes, Tyrod was excellent for us
It's nice that we can coach up recruits as well as any, but players are rated 5-star for a reason. You can't convince me that having a few on your roster doesn't help things out.
so, what I get out of that article is that there is over a 50% chance a five-star qb has a great career (or is at least a long-term starter). And a lot of the washouts were due to behavioral issues. To me, this only shows how accurate these star ratings are (I mean, do you think 50% of 3 stars have amazing careers? I don't).
good point
i agree
2006
Had the best class, crazy to think how some guys have amazing years in college and not the pros and vice versa.
2 stars
I believe Danny Coale, who is still open by the way, was a two star, and Boykin was two or three? These two panned out pretty dag on well for us. Re wrote record books from the likes of Freeman and Royal and some good wrs before them. I dont think that blue chip stuff really means anything.
Blue chip
The only thing I think "blue chip" means is that the probability of the player being a significant contributor is a little higher. But every major program has 2/3 star guys that turn into big time players. And yes, Danny Coale is, and always will be, wide open.
Last 5 years
You don't even have to go back ten, just look at the last five and you can see how many 4/5 stars pan out and how many 2/3 stars end up contributing. Maddy was a 2 star and Harley was a 4 star and yet Maddy was a starter/contributor and Harley didn't really come on until near the end of the season and is pretty much 4th or 5th in the DT rotation.
this is a really flawed argument
There are tons of examples of 2/3 stars beating out 5 star guys. There are tons of guys who are unheralded/under-recruited who go on to be stars. That in no way means that the ranking system is irrelevant.
Rankings give us an idea as to the probability of a player contributing, and their potential cieling if they do so. So, as the article in this post pointed out, yes there were a fair amount (nearly half) of 5 star qb recuits that didn't pan out. And there were certainly a lot of other non-five-star qbs who did. But the hit rate for the five stars was far higher than the others. Nearly 50% of the five star quarterbacks went on to be multi-year starters, and several of them (Tyrod, Tim Tebow, Matt Stafford, and Cam Newton) went on to be some of the best ever at their respective schools. That's with only 23 of them ranked. How many non-five-star quarterbacks were also recruited during that time? Far more than 23. Probably closer to 1,500 (just my ballpark estimate, given over 100 schools, each taking 1-2 qbs on average). How many of those guys never start, or have to change positions, or wash out, or only start on final year and are just meh? Way more than 50%
Finding individual anecdotes of lower recruited players beating out more highly touted peers doesn't refute the ranking system. It's probability - it happens. And I do believe some coaches do a good job of finding under-recruited/under-rated prospects (like Beamer, for instance), which may scew the rankings some. But that doesn't mean the ranking system is worthless. Higher rated players generally have a greater probability of success than the lower ones.
great analysis, I completely agree.
I really hope
Bucky plays with a chip on his shoulder for not being considered a 5* and learns a good work ethic while he's here.
there's nothing wrong with his work ethic ... just because he wants to be a kid and not be a little camp-whore like everyone else, he has no work ethic?
fact: the reason bucky was ranked so low for so long is because he didn't pay money to go to all the bullshit, premadonna, high school camps.
Had he only started his analysis one year earlier...
...he could have cited Marcus Vick. THAT would have been entertaining.
Yea, drunk driving and statutory rape can definitely derail a career.